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Russia begins Invasion of Ukraine

Gp1

Member
They also pulled a bunch of the 2000 troops that were stationed there, presumably to send to Ukraine. If Russia is pulling resources from their borders with NATO then that clearly means that they don't care about NATO expansion and don't consider them to be a threat. This is just more evidence that the invasion of Ukraine had nothing to do with security concerns stemming from NATO.


They are scraping the bottom of the RUAF to keep the initiative. Let's see how sustainable this can be.
 

Chittagong

Gold Member
Also, if anyone was wondering how their McDonalds replacement was doing....


🤢

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Havoc2049

Member
30,000 is a fuck ton. It's about as many that USSR lost to Afghanistan in 10 years and forced their withdrawl. Losing nearly 1,000 tanks is not nothing, along with their 10s of thousands injured and wounded. Russia may have more but they aren't limitless.

What they've done is made what was a contested territory before the war less contested. Well, la de dah. The problem being an invading force is the natives don't go anywhere. Russia still has another 90% of Ukraine to deal with - a 90% that is fully mobilized, motivated, and increasingly better armed.

And y'all somehow aren't paying attend to Kherson where Ukraine is taking territory, and is putting Russia southern supply lines at risk.

Anyway... It's definitely a war and victory isn't assured for either force but tactical withdraws aren't routes so no reason to feel doom.. probably worth stepping away for a few days to get perspective.
Ukrainian forces are racking up losses as well and are loosing experienced troops. The Ukrainian Marines have suffered 80% casualty rates. So now you basically have only a few experienced Marines leading large amounts of young inexperienced fighters into combat.
 

akimbo009

Gold Member
Ukrainian forces are racking up losses as well and are loosing experienced troops. The Ukrainian Marines have suffered 80% casualty rates. So now you basically have only a few experienced Marines leading large amounts of young inexperienced fighters into combat.
What? This isn't true.
 

BeardGawd

Banned
Hypothetically. After Russia's initial setback wouldn't it have made more sense for Ukraine to negotiate and give up the Donba's region and thus avoid all the casualties they've seen so far and now Russia is taking the area anyway?
 

Ironbunny

Member
Hypothetically. After Russia's initial setback wouldn't it have made more sense for Ukraine to negotiate and give up the Donba's region and thus avoid all the casualties they've seen so far and now Russia is taking the area anyway?

You would first need a partner worthy of trust for that negotiation. What ruZZia says/said does not hold water. Having a truce would mean ruZZia can gather more forces to the area and then choose to continue their onslaught with refreshed forces and supplys. They want the whole Ukraine and remove it as a state. That has not changed.
 

Ozriel

M$FT
Ukrainian forces are racking up losses as well and are loosing experienced troops. The Ukrainian Marines have suffered 80% casualty rates. So now you basically have only a few experienced Marines leading large amounts of young inexperienced fighters into combat.

He is right actually. Many units are suffering a significant number of casualties



ONE unit suffered 80% attrition and somehow you folks have extrapolated it to “80% of the entire Ukrainian Marine corps are dead or wounded”

This is how misinformation starts. Well done to all involved 😒
 

TwinB242

Member
ONE unit suffered 80% attrition and somehow you folks have extrapolated it to “80% of the entire Ukrainian Marine corps are dead or wounded”

This is how misinformation starts. Well done to all involved 😒

I should have specified that I don't believe its all units, but there a lot of examples like the one in the video I posted. I know we all want to be optimistic but in this phase of the war the casualty figures are high for both Ukraine and Russia

 
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akimbo009

Gold Member
ONE unit suffered 80% attrition and somehow you folks have extrapolated it to “80% of the entire Ukrainian Marine corps are dead or wounded”

This is how misinformation starts. Well done to all involved 😒
Was gonna say ..

Also, Ukraine has fully mobilized, so their recruitment and training numbers will very quickly shore up transitory losses.
 

Tams

Member
Hypothetically. After Russia's initial setback wouldn't it have made more sense for Ukraine to negotiate and give up the Donba's region and thus avoid all the casualties they've seen so far and now Russia is taking the area anyway?
We've debated this death in this thread already.

tl;dr: There's 0 guarantee that Putin wouldn't try to take more either straight away or in a few years, and it would set a terrible international precedent.
 
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Sakura

Member
Hypothetically. After Russia's initial setback wouldn't it have made more sense for Ukraine to negotiate and give up the Donba's region and thus avoid all the casualties they've seen so far and now Russia is taking the area anyway?
Hypothetically, if Russia was willing to negotiate, then yes.
But there are some problems.

First, Ukraine would want another country to guarantee their security. It isn't enough that Russia promises to not attack any further. They could just conduct a false flag operation in a few years and break the peace deal, and nobody would do anything. So for a negotiated peace deal like the one you are proposing, Ukraine would want a 3rd party (The US for example) to promise to defend Ukraine if Russia were to break the deal.

Second, even if it were in Ukraine's best interest, the people might not necessarily agree. If the general public wants Ukraine to keep fighting, then it would be very hard for the government to surrender land without much of a fight.

Third, Ukraine didn't know what the future has in store. They could've seen Russia withdrawing from the north and thought Russia was weak and they could hold the Donbas. Maybe they thought the west would provide massive support. Not just a handful of MLRS for example, but dozens.

And of course, the fourth major issue, is assuming Russia only wants the Donbas. It appears Russia wants a lot more than just the Donbas. They likely want Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. They already have most of that aside from Odessa and Mykolaiv. Would Russia be willing to negotiate peace just for Donbas, giving up the rest of the land they've already taken? Unlikely...
ONE unit suffered 80% attrition and somehow you folks have extrapolated it to “80% of the entire Ukrainian Marine corps are dead or wounded”

This is how misinformation starts. Well done to all involved 😒
Well, he said the marines. Ukraine only has 6000 marines according to wikipedia. They lost a lot in Mariupol, and likely a lot in Severodonetsk, so 80% isn't that unbelievable. But it's impossible to know anything for sure as the government is obviously not going to give out that kind of info.
 

BeardGawd

Banned
You would first need a partner worthy of trust for that negotiation. What ruZZia says/said does not hold water. Having a truce would mean ruZZia can gather more forces to the area and then choose to continue their onslaught with refreshed forces and supplys. They want the whole Ukraine and remove it as a state. That has not changed.

We've debated rhis death in this thread already.

tl;dr: There's 0 guarantee that Putin wouldn't try to take more either straight away or in a few years, and it would set a terrible international precedent.

Hypothetically, if Russia was willing to negotiate, then yes.
But there are some problems.

First, Ukraine would want another country to guarantee their security. It isn't enough that Russia promises to not attack any further. They could just conduct a false flag operation in a few years and break the peace deal, and nobody would do anything. So for a negotiated peace deal like the one you are proposing, Ukraine would want a 3rd party (The US for example) to promise to defend Ukraine if Russia were to break the deal.

Second, even if it were in Ukraine's best interest, the people might not necessarily agree. If the general public wants Ukraine to keep fighting, then it would be very hard for the government to surrender land without much of a fight.

Third, Ukraine didn't know what the future has in store. They could've seen Russia withdrawing from the north and thought Russia was weak and they could hold the Donbas. Maybe they thought the west would provide massive support. Not just a handful of MLRS for example, but dozens.

And of course, the fourth major issue, is assuming Russia only wants the Donbas. It appears Russia wants a lot more than just the Donbas. They likely want Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. They already have most of that aside from Odessa and Mykolaiv. Would Russia be willing to negotiate peace just for Donbas, giving up the rest of the land they've already taken? Unlikely...

Well, he said the marines. Ukraine only has 6000 marines according to wikipedia. They lost a lot in Mariupol, and likely a lot in Severodonetsk, so 80% isn't that unbelievable. But it's impossible to know anything for sure as the government is obviously not going to give out that kind of info.

I hear you guys but from the outside looking in it appears Ukraine got overly confident from NATO building their confidence up. I highly doubt Ukraine citizens would have preferred the number of casualities we are seeing at this point. NATO has a vested interest to protract this conflict due to Taiwan.

It's almost as of NATO is paying Ukraine to fight Russia via proxy. Sad state of affairs all around.
 

TwinB242

Member
I hear you guys but from the outside looking in it appears Ukraine got overly confident from NATO building their confidence up. I highly doubt Ukraine citizens would have preferred the number of casualities we are seeing at this point. NATO has a vested interest to protract this conflict due to Taiwan.

It's almost as of NATO is paying Ukraine to fight Russia via proxy. Sad state of affairs all around.
This isn't accurate. A recent poll showed that 89% of Ukrainians are against territorial concessions to Russia. They clearly want to keep fighting.
 

Ironbunny

Member
I hear you guys but from the outside looking in it appears Ukraine got overly confident from NATO building their confidence up. I highly doubt Ukraine citizens would have preferred the number of casualities we are seeing at this point. NATO has a vested interest to protract this conflict due to Taiwan.

It's almost as of NATO is paying Ukraine to fight Russia via proxy. Sad state of affairs all around.

I am and my country men are all looking this from the outside too. We are not part of NATO yet and for us it is easy see our country in the same position as Ukraine is at the moment. We can relate in thoughts how we would fight for every inch of our country and you can add civil population into that too. We would hope for help like what Ukraine is getting at the moment and we would not feel like being somekind of proxy. Ukraine has been redying up to ruZZias invasion from 2014 (And Taiwan the last 70 years for China) so they knew what was coming. Latest polls I've seen around 90% of their people are behind their president when it comes to defending their country and trusting him and their armed forces to do whats best. I feel you cant relate to what they are fighting for from you texts?

Yes its a sad state of affairs but it becomes much more sad when you give up. Let a dictator take over your country, consprit your men into hes army, give up your countrys identity and lands and destroy any identity of Ukraine. Have FSB confiscate any dissident or nay sayers to their Siberian gulags. Forget any rebuilding. Just look at the state what ruZZia is in. If there has been ever a fight for freedom then this is it.

Please dont frame this as a NATO's proxy war. ruZZia started this (in 2014) and they can as easily end it too.
 
I am and my country men are all looking this from the outside too. We are not part of NATO yet and for us it is easy see our country in the same position as Ukraine is at the moment. We can relate in thoughts how we would fight for every inch of our country and you can add civil population into that too. We would hope for help like what Ukraine is getting at the moment and we would not feel like being somekind of proxy. Ukraine has been redying up to ruZZias invasion from 2014 (And Taiwan the last 70 years for China) so they knew what was coming. Latest polls I've seen around 90% of their people are behind their president when it comes to defending their country and trusting him and their armed forces to do whats best. I feel you cant relate to what they are fighting for from you texts?

Yes its a sad state of affairs but it becomes much more sad when you give up. Let a dictator take over your country, consprit your men into hes army, give up your countrys identity and lands and destroy any identity of Ukraine. Have FSB confiscate any dissident or nay sayers to their Siberian gulags. Forget any rebuilding. Just look at the state what ruZZia is in. If there has been ever a fight for freedom then this is it.

Please dont frame this as a NATO's proxy war. ruZZia started this (in 2014) and they can as easily end it too.

Funny you've mentioned that. I was actually looking into how miserable it must be over there during this all nonsense.

 

Ironbunny

Member
Funny you've mentioned that. I was actually looking into how miserable it must be over there during this all nonsense.

Yea life there goes on like war hasnt happened. I am not talking Moscow or the centrums or how the war touches these people. Was talking about anything beyond those places and its like going back in time where nothing is mantained.
 

TwinB242

Member
The latest ISW update is a good wake up call for anyone who thinks Ukraine should just call it quits and give up territory including the Donbas

Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev restated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s initial objectives for operations in Ukraine, suggesting that the Kremlin retains maximalist objectives including regime change and territorial expansion far beyond the Donbas.


Any peace deal or ceasefire will be temporary at best and benefit Russia in the long run. Their military needs to be grinded down until they can't wage war anymore, thats really the only solution at this point.
 

Havoc2049

Member
ONE unit suffered 80% attrition and somehow you folks have extrapolated it to “80% of the entire Ukrainian Marine corps are dead or wounded”

This is how misinformation starts. Well done to all involved 😒

I should have specified that I don't believe its all units, but there a lot of examples like the one in the video I posted. I know we all want to be optimistic but in this phase of the war the casualty figures are high for both Ukraine and Russia

[/URL]

Was gonna say ..

Also, Ukraine has fully mobilized, so their recruitment and training numbers will very quickly shore up transitory losses.
Ya, I based my statement of a 80% casualty rate on the comments by the Marine Corps Officer and the Sky News report. The 503rd Marine Corps Battalion was based out of Mariupol and I posted MANY pages back about the high casualties of the infantry in that unit and how even the admin staff and the band was valiantly fighting the Russians in the streets of Mariopal. Even with the high casualties, it does look like those casualties have been replaced and the Marines are still in the fight and are an effective fighting force.

As someone who served in the US Marine Corps, I've been following the Ukrainian Marines with interest the best I can, as they have been in the thick of battle since 2014.


 

akimbo009

Gold Member
Could be a huge blow if officially confirmed..


Apparent video of it...



Looking like this may be real. Those strikes in the video are definitely HIMARS and looking like secondary explosions so also another ammo depot it seems.
 
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Tams

Member
I hear you guys but from the outside looking in it appears Ukraine got overly confident from NATO building their confidence up. I highly doubt Ukraine citizens would have preferred the number of casualities we are seeing at this point. NATO has a vested interest to protract this conflict due to Taiwan.

It's almost as of NATO is paying Ukraine to fight Russia via proxy. Sad state of affairs all around.
Knock that bollocks off.

While NATO certainly benefits from Russia being weaker, they'd rather not have a war happening in their doorstep.

Things were fine enough before the invasion, Crimea and Donbass pretty much being considered unfortunate, but not terrible.

But then Putin decided to invade.

And it's insulting, disingenuous, and silly of you to suggest Ukraine are some sort of puppet of 'big bad NATO'. They want to defend their country, and I'm more than happy for my country to help them as much as we can.

Help. Sure there are long term benefits for us, but that's not the main reason I support it.
 
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Ozriel

M$FT
I hear you guys but from the outside looking in it appears Ukraine got overly confident from NATO building their confidence up. I highly doubt Ukraine citizens would have preferred the number of casualities we are seeing at this point. NATO has a vested interest to protract this conflict due to Taiwan.

It's almost as of NATO is paying Ukraine to fight Russia via proxy. Sad state of affairs all around.

This is textbook Russian propaganda.

The idea that citizens of a sovereign nation would not want to fight to defend their own country from invasion is quite silly. Every opinion poll in Ukraine shows an extreme unwillingness to concede to Russia, and Ukraine valiantly defended their territory in the first few weeks of the war before major support from NATO came in.

Sorry if you expected them to surrender in the first few days. Putin was misled into believing this too.
 
I hear you guys but from the outside looking in it appears Ukraine got overly confident from NATO building their confidence up. I highly doubt Ukraine citizens would have preferred the number of casualities we are seeing at this point. NATO has a vested interest to protract this conflict due to Taiwan.

It's almost as of NATO is paying Ukraine to fight Russia via proxy. Sad state of affairs all around.
I agree with this statement - it does feel that way. It's the least 'hands are dirty' NATO can get away with in being less direct.

"Go on, punch him .. I'm right here with you"
 

nemiroff

Gold Member
Knock that bollocks off.

While NATO certainly benefits from Russia being weaker, they'd rather not have a war happening in their doorstep.

Things were fine enough before the invasion, Crimea and Donbass pretty much being considered unfortunate, but not terrible.

But then Putin decided to invade.

And it's insulting, disingenuous, and silly of you to suggest Ukraine are some sort of puppet of 'big bad NATO'. They want to defend their country, and I'm more than happy for my country to help them as much as we can.

Help. Sure there are long term benefits for us, but that's not the main reason I support it.

Yeah. you're of course right (Ukraine has been my second home for the last fifteen years). If there was a speck of will left among Ukrainians after 2014 to join to their "brothers and sisters on the other side" and surrender towards into some kind of smooth integration, it completely vanished in the moment of the incredible aggressive invasion. After 2014 "brothers and sisters" was no longer a thing, but people certainly didn't expect to be betrayed on a shocking level like this. The west-ward direction change away from ruzzia which started well before 2014 wasn't because of pressure from NATO, it was because a new generation of young Ukrainians increasingly sought western and European values, freedom and a corruption-free society, they were increasingly aware that they were a puppet of ruzzia, not the west/NATO.
 
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M1chl

Currently Gif and Meme Champion
This makes me wonder why, instead of spending millions on the latest weapon systems, we don't just try to bribe the entire russian army into surrendering
Nobody has an interest to pay those idiots, at least not directly.
 

Gp1

Member
Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced that the Czech Air Force would soon be carrying out patrol and air policing duties from within Slovakia’s airspace. The proposed partnership between the neighboring NATO countries could kick start the transfer of MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, which has been in the works since the early days of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict.Fiala disclosed the details of the agreement on July 3, stating that beginning in September, the country would deploy SAAB JAS-39C Gripen fighters to conduct air-defense operations in Slovakian skies.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...akias-mig-29s-thanks-to-czech-air-patrol-deal
 
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