Nintendo may be willing to pay more so that they have early momentum with switch, especially if they feel their overall lineup may not be as strong as they’d like
I don’t think marketing agreements matter all that much tbh
I think Switch 2’s launch window will be fine. We are potentially looking at 3D Mario, Mario Kart 9, Metroid Prime 4, Donkey Kong, BOTW/TOTK remasters… they are going to be fine.
Let’s say that Nintendo sells 3 million switches per month. I think that’s an achievable, aggressive number. And even 1 out of every 10 people buy the switch 2 exclusive MH6 - which I also think is a generous estimation...
That’s only potentially 300,000 sales per month. At a year, the game will have only sold like 3.6 million copies making it one of the slowest selling MH games in history.
Nah. Don’t make sense to be exclusive.
Edited for maths:
January 2022, MHR came to PC. In the 9 months it was exclusive to switch, it sold 8 million copies. This was against a Switch install base of 104 million. That means 7.69% of Switch owners bothered to purchase MHR in that time frame. Assuming we maintain the same level of interest, that lowers our sales projections of MH6 to roughly 2.8 million copies in a year's time. I would argue this number could be
even lower when you factor in competing sales of potential all star launch titles. People only have so much money after all.
When MHR released in March of 21, it basically had no competition. Mario 3D world came out Jan 12, Bravely Default 2 Feb 26, MHR exactly a month later on March 26th, followed by New Pokemon Snap April 30th, and the next biggest
new game was Mario Golf on June 25th. So there was basically a full month where MHR was the biggest release and had essentially no competition for hungry Switch owners, and
still only 7.69% bothered.
Let's do some contrasting. As of currently, Xbox has sold 21m units, PS5 40m, and let's just say for shits and giggles there are 100m capable PCs out there. That's 161 million potential customers that Capcom is ignoring if they sign an exclusivity deal with Nintendo. Let's use the same figure we did for MHR and say that only 7.69% of those people are interested in MH6. That would put our potential day one sales at .... Almost 12.4 million. That's a hell of a lot more than Switch 2's exclusive 2.8 million.
So now it's 12.4 million multiplat or 2.8 million switch 2 exclusive. We have roughly a 10 million sale deficit. If the game sells for $70, since Capcom's president thinks games are too cheap, and even HALF of that is going back to Capcom, that's $35,000,000 they potentially missed out on by signing a year's exclusivity deal.
And let's face it. Switch isn't the only way to play games portably anymore. We live in a post steam deck world. And we have cell phones.
laughs in iphone 15 pro
