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[monkeymagic]

You hold off and set up another Killzone title, another GTA title, MGS4 and maybe even have Squenix set you up with one as well. Odds are they'll have a Jak title set, as well, and probably yet ANOTHER Tony Hawk game and another SOCOM. You wait til mid year 07 to release. Let all the steam die down from the 360 stuff. You release with your awesome library in the middle of the year at, say, $350.

It would be a very bad idea for both publishers and manufacturers to unleash all their best titles at launch or at once.

There is only a set amount your average casual gamer is going to spend within any one period of time so titles released at the same time would just cannibalize sales of each other not to mention the fact that staggered releases help to sustain hardware sales momentum.

A couple of titles at launch which sell 500K-1M with the rest being filler titles is enough. It's your first holiday season which you really want to get right which is MS' case is also their launch window.

 

[Mrbob]

Also, if Sony says 2007, that means the next GTA will be hitting Xbox 360 first. Not good for Sony.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

I still think if Microsoft sees Sony in a vulnerable state, they'll drop the price. There's been reports in the past that Microsoft was enticing developers with a very low royalty fee. If that were to result in games still staying at 50 on the 360 and then 60 on the PS3, MS wins that way too. I just think Microsoft is going to undercut them. That is just what they do. Everybody knows of Sony's financial troubles and their having to worry about more than just videogames. I think they (Microsoft) will go for the jugular in regards to pricing and force Sony to play along, crippling them in the process

 

[Zeo]

Interesting.

Most likely wrong, but still interesting. It could happen. It's not like Sony hasn't gotten increasingly cocky.

 

[TheInkyVoid]

This thread brings back all those memories of years ago and the "why the Dreamcast is going to rule" and "Sony better fear MS and the Xbox" posts...

 

[Guy LeDouche]

Damn, the Xbots are in heat. Pavlov couldn't command such rampant salivation.


Granted, I'm sure the Sonybots and N-bots will be much the same, but I've never been a member to a gaming forum during a home console launch.

Keep your hands and feet inside the boat, children. Don't want to get a finger bitten off.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

This thread brings back all those memories of years ago and the "why the Dreamcast is going to rule" and "Sony better fear MS and the Xbox" posts...

If you weren't such a naysayer, I wouldn't see any similarities between the upcoming launches and those in the past generation.

 

[Dr. Doom]

This thread brings back all those memories of years ago and the "why the Dreamcast is going to rule" and "Sony better fear MS and the Xbox" posts...

Sony had better be worried about the 360. If they bury their heads and pretend it doesnt exist and think that the world revolves around the Playstation brand they might be in for a suprise.

Do I think the 360 will outsell the PS3? Heck no, but if the 360 has a strong start and Sony gives them too much time and momentum the gap could close up considerably. Just imagine if PS3 launches in 2007 and X360 gets a GTA game in Nov. of 06'. Big trouble IMO...


Even worse if Sony launches the PS3 at $400+ and the 360 titles look comparable on a $249-299 system.

I remember when Atari was king and thenNintendo. We all know how that turned out...

 

[Beer Monkey]

MS should run giant magazines ads that say:

"If PS3 launches in 2006 it's because they are scared to death of Xbox 360"

 

[Pimpwerx]

MS should run giant magazines ads that say:

"If PS3 launches in 2006 it's because they are scared to death of Xbox 360"

Didn't work for Sega, won't work for MS. All it does is give the PS3 free press. PEACE.

 

[TheDuce22]

TheInkyVoid This thread brings back all those memories of years ago and the "why the Dreamcast is going to rule" and "Sony better fear MS and the Xbox" posts...

On top of the many other factors, xbox is a strong brand name. Sega crawled back out of the grave to release dreamcast.

 

[Dr. Doom]

MS should run giant magazines ads that say:

"If PS3 launches in 2006 it's because they are scared to death of Xbox 360"

:lol


Even better have a commercial of a fake Ken Kutaragi getting upset and screaming "we must launch now!" at a bunch Japanese Sony Execs in a board room who aren't paying attention because they are playing games on a X360 and wearing Live headsets.

Then again the thought of Japanese people playing the X360 isn't very believable.

 

[Vennt]

Crazy Batshit Insane Conspiracy Theory #87530:

This is a "leak" by Sony, not because they necessarily intend to delay, but rather as a start of a campaign of mind-fucking Microsoft into playing reactively to Sony's moves, whilst Sony sticks to a gameplan only they know.

a.k.a. A "Curve Ball" and one of many to come.

Imagine MS having to plan a pre-emptive strike marketing campaign including key game releases, only to have Sony delay a few months at last minute, would MS then hold those games in check?, could you trick a competitor into releasing a "key title" at the least opportune moment for such a release (Such as the start of Summer, not a traditional release window for key titles)

A crazy theory I admit, but they are my favorite type

Still, something about this smacks of a little "Cat & Mouse" going on to me.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

:lol


Even better have a commercial of a fake Ken Kutaragi getting upset and screaming "we must launch now!" at a bunch Japanese Sony Execs in a board room who aren't paying attention because they are playing games on a X360 and wearing Live headsets.

Then again the thought of Japanese people playing the X360 isn't very believable.

People thought Ridge Racer wasn't going to be on the 360 either

 

[PhatSaqs]

MS should run giant magazines ads that say:

"If PS3 launches in 2006 it's because they are scared to death of Xbox 360"

And what exactly would be the purpose of this? Logic says they're "afraid" of each other to some extent.

 

[jimbo]

I'm just going to put in my two cents.

Xbox 360 will do much better world wide than Xbox. This is even if it launched at the same time or even after the PS3 because frankly it has so many things going for it that the Xbox did not have. Period.

It will do better in Japan than the Xbox has. But it probably won't ever get close to the PS3, although it has a good chance of getting much closer or even ahead of the Revolution.

It already has more "hype" games coming out in the first year than Xbox had probably in its first 3.

Halo 3 alone will sell a bucket load of systems in Europe and US.

It's launching first. It WILL get a head start, which will intice more developers to make it the base platform meaning better software support.

Overall, the 360 will do better than the Xbox, and the PS3 worse than the PS2.

How much better, I don't know. Which one will end up on top, I don't know.

And Sony will not launch in the US in 2007. It's 2006 or it's TOO late.

Just my two cents, but I stand by these predictions.

 

[Beer Monkey]

And what exactly would be the purpose of this? Logic says they're "afraid" of each other to some extent.

Not really. One side has nothing to lose. One has very much to lose.

It will do better in Japan than the Xbox has. But it probably won't ever get close to the PS3, although it has a good chance of getting much closer or even ahead of the Revolution.

I definitely think that PS3 will carry the largest marketshare by the end of the generation. I also think there's a good chance they'll continue to lose ground.

 

[DCharlie]

stupid question :

if they suddenly defer to a 2007 launch, wouldn't that piss off all the dev houses that have moved resources into creating a game for the PS3 for 2006?

I'm pretty sure they'd be pissed off - they could have been making a game for the price-cut Ps2!

IMO - they'll release in 2006 - not out of fear, just because they'll be on track/ready/have enough software/have more than enough demand.

 

[Mrbob]

stupid question :

if they suddenly defer to a 2007 launch, wouldn't that piss off all the dev houses that have moved resources into creating a game for the PS3 for 2006?

I'm pretty sure they'd be pissed off - they could have been making a game for the price-cut Ps2!

IMO - they'll release in 2006 - not out of fear, just because they'll be on track/ready/have enough software/have more than enough demand.

Yeah. Sony seems right on schedule according to their timeline.

 

[The Take Out Bandit]

A price dropped PS2 with the complimentary software being added to an already awesome library is going to give the Xbox2 a run for it's money this holiday season, if not handily beat it.

I keep reading, "Microsoft isn't Sega."

You keep forgetting; Sony isn't Nintendo.

They're not going to drop the ball, and it's going to be bitter fans of other systems crying foul all over again come PS3 launch. :lol

Oh - and if Microsoft isn't Sega, they're doing a damn fine job of not being Sega by hiring a bunch of Sega of America has-beens. :lol

 

[sonycowboy]

A price dropped PS2 with the complimentary software being added to an already awesome library is going to give the Xbox2 a run for it's money this holiday season, if not handily beat it.

As Rhindle said earlier. The PS2 is going to lap the 360 in terms of hardware sales. But, the 360 will be supply constrained and not $99/$129, so it's not a particularly meaningful comparison, UNLESS there's any evidence that the PS2 took sales away from the 360 or vice versa. And, any evidence of that will be quite hard to bear out.

 

[Mrbob]

You keep forgetting; Sony isn't Nintendo.

Hard to argue against. Until Sony falls flat on their face I will agree with this.

 

[The Take Out Bandit]

But, the 360 will be supply constrained and not $99/$129, so it's not a particularly meaningful comparison, UNLESS there's any evidence that the PS2 took sales away from the 360 or vice versa.

Okay - how about the PS2 selling neck and neck with, or outselling the Xbox2 until the PS3 launch?

 

[Dr. Doom]

Okay - how about the PS2 selling neck and neck with, or outselling the Xbox2 until the PS3 launch?

That comparison proves nothing.

I think the 360 upon launch will beat the PS2 for a month or two then fall behind it monthly by about 50K per until the PS3 launches.

As I said however its a pretty silly comparison. Its like betting on a battle between two totally different consumers sets. People buying a $99 PS2 this late in the game probably were never 360 buyers to begin with.

It would be like comparing the purchaser of a brand new 10.0 Megapixel cutting edge camera to the customer waiting for a 2.0 Megapixel point and shoot to get below $100. Not the same consumer.

 

[sonycowboy]

That comparison proves nothing.

I think the 360 upon launch will beat the PS2 for a month or two then fall behind it monthly by about 50K per until the PS3 launches.

Possible, but not very likely. The PS2 should sell over a million units in November, and probably well over 2M in November. I doubt Microsoft will be able to put over a million units available in November in the US with a worldwide release and still have systems for the critical weeks approaching Christmas.

 

[The Take Out Bandit]

Now you're just thinking too much.

This isn't about anything other than pure bragging rights and rubbing the nose of the losing team in their own feces. :lol

 

[DCharlie]

won't a strong and cheap PS2 also eat into the PS3?

this is a problem i see sony possibly facing - having to ween people off the cheap PS2 onto the (possibly expensive?) PS3.

 

[Dr. Doom]

won't a strong and cheap PS2 also eat into the PS3?

this is a problem i see sony possibly facing - having to ween people off the cheap PS2 onto the (possibly expensive?) PS3.

If PS3 launches at $400 a cheap PS2 will be the least of their worries. I'd be more concernd about a X360 that might perform on par for $250-300.

I think there is definately a price that general consumers won't break for a console and $400 seems too high. I'll buy it of course but that doesn't help them much in the big picture. Look at PC graphics cards. The $300+ models are such a ridiculously low percentage of sales for ATI and Nvidia.

If the X360 with a better included package (Live, a HD, a Headset, Wireless controller) for $250-299 has alot of popular titles that the systems share like GTA, RE5, Madden, etc. and they are close to the same in fidelity I would be scared shitless If I was Sony.

 

[FightyF]

Sony is not e.

Understandably though...it looks like MS is barely pulling off this launch (planning is great, 3rd party support up the yingyang, but execution-wise, take a look at PD0...).

 

[Speevy]

400 bucks is absurd for a console that's supposed to reach 120 million consumers. If you don't agree, you have more money than I do.

 

[heidern]

400 bucks is absurd for a console that's supposed to reach 120 million consumers.

That doesn't apply since there's this concept known as price cutting which will enable the ps3 to achieve that.

Regarding a delay, it is in Sony's interests to hold it back for as long as possible. The longer they wait, the more they can pack into the hardware and what not, and thus it would be easier for them to make the x360 obsolete. However I think a 2007 release is not going to happen, giving MS a big headstart is one thing, giving MS and Nintendo would be a real problem and put then into Nintendo's N64 shoes. However a 6 month delay into the holiday 2006 season is very viable.

 

[thorns]

Don't forget there's a new version of Windows coming out year, and MS will market the shit out of it. I wouldn't be surprised if the new Windows and xbox 360 could work together in some special ways. But yeah sony are gods and they 're unbeatable, whatever.

 

[Norse]

Even if sony delayed till 2007, they sure as hell wouldnt do it to upgrade the specs. The plan would be to wait for cheaper prices on the parts they were already going to use. That way they wont lose a billion dollars the first yr or 2 on the ps3. Which they will if not priced high enough.....they have already removed 1 of the nework ports to reduce costs..whats next? Will they have to wait till 2007 because they want to include the blu ray drive and its high cost?

I would love ms to add the hd dvd drive but if that makes a 299 console 399 at launch, I can live with a standard dvd drive. And who knows what he xbox 360 will cost? Nothing has been said about its price as of yet...just guesses.

a 99 dollar ps2 would outsel all consoles......but it may hurt sales of psp and ps3 as well.

I wonder hw many of the consoles sold so far this gen are replacements for broken ones...or how many are repeat buyers that have 2 or more of the same console. I bet a large portion of the initial ps two sales were people that already owned a ps2....and what xbox owner doesnt have a special edition halo version that sits next to their old black caddy xbox. heh

xbox 360 $359.99 at launch
ps3 $399.99 at launch........april 2006 at the EARLIEST in north america

you can print that

 

[Vince]

I wonder hw many of the consoles sold so far this gen are replacements for broken ones...or how many are repeat buyers that have 2 or more of the same console. I bet a large portion of the initial ps two sales were people that already owned a ps2....and what xbox owner doesnt have a special edition halo version that sits next to their old black caddy xbox. heh

Very few actually. The proof is in the [software]:[hardware] ratio, which is above 7:1 on the PS2 the last I heard and climbing. The problem with stating that the PStwo or the XBox SE compose anything but an insignificant number of the total userbase is that as you decrease tone variable, the function increases as the reciprocal and you get attachment numbers that approach 15 or 20:1 for the PlayStation2 (depending on the hate) which have no empirical support what so ever.

And a delay to 2007, while having a probability that's single digit IMHO, could very well see a clock increase as yeilds increase. Cell is being artificially throttled down to the X360's clock (add to this the huge benefit from the reduncency), the architecture itself can yeild well (better than PS2 at a comparable point) at a noticably higher speed.

 

[Zeo]

You keep forgetting; Sony isn't Nintendo.

They're not going to drop the ball, and it's going to be bitter fans of other systems crying foul all over again come PS3 launch. :lol

You mean Nintendo, the company that won two generations and then completely dropped the ball with N64 because they got cocky and made stupid decisions?

Yeah, Sony would never drop the ball. They'll never get cocky and make dumb mistakes. They're going to win forever.

 

[Fafalada]

won't a strong and cheap PS2 also eat into the PS3?

I don't think PS2 will eat into any early adoption - it's in completely different price bracket. If Sony wants to really steal limelight from 360 they have another thing they should bring forth - but I have no idea if they will this soon.

And besides, this is where backwards compatibility really pays off - PSOne was still kicking ass and taking names but it certainly didn't eat into PS2.

 

[TheJollyCorner]

Since everyone else is tossing in two cents...

PlayStation 2's launch, both US and Japan, sold almost entirely on a "just wait" philosophy. Granted, I enjoyed PS2's launch (SSX, Tekken Tag, RRV, Swing Away Golf ), but there wasn't a huge MUST HAVE for it. It was all about waiting for Final Fantasy X, Metal Gear Solid 2, Gran Turismo 3, Resident Evil 4 (at the time), etc. The other big seller, obviously, was the popularity of PSone. Name brand familiarity and trust. Sure, it's main competition was the Dreamcast, but back in 1999 that seemed pretty significant. SEGA seemed ready to make a huge comeback- early next gen system launch, tempting launch titles, online capabilities, a new Resident Evil on the way, etc.

I won't make the mistake of comparing Dreamcast to X360, but even prior to launching PS2 the gaming world was aware of Nintendo's GameCube and MS's X-Box. PS2 had the 'wait' scenario working as Dreamcast came out, then the 'why wait' (for NGC & Xbox) once it was finally released.

Why does PS3 have to be any different? Strong series brands back in 2000, such as FF and MGS, are still very strong today. How many of you will be buying PS3 next year for games like FFXIII and MGS4, which may or may not hit as soon as 2007 or as late as 2008? I can safely say that I will, but this next gen I can add other series to the list, like Devil May Cry, Silent Hill, GTA, possibly a sequel to God of War, a new Jak, new project by ICO/Wanda's Ueda, etc.

I don't think it's too ridiculous to believe there are a lot of gamers like myself that will get a PS3 right off the bat simply for the guaranteed prospects of established, quality brands- multi-platformed (i.e. Ridge Racer) or not. Hell, it took almost a whole year of PS2 before the games I was really interested in started coming out (like SH2, FFX, MGS2)- but there were still some great games that tied me over, like Shadow of Destiny, ZOE, Twisted Metal Black, Dark Cloud, just to name a few.

X360 will most likely do pretty well this gen, but as long as Sony secures the games/series that the PS2 userbaser enjoys, it would take a monumental fuck-up to lose any significant ground, I think.

Personally, as I've said before, I hope X360 and PS3 are both very strong. Healthy competition within the market would, hopefully, inspire developers/designers to work harder. Maybe the nostalgic fool in me just wants another Genesis/SNES type era.

 

[monkeymagic]

Overall, the 360 will do better than the Xbox, and the PS3 worse than the PS2.

You're assuming the market size remains stagnant.

The same was said at the beginning of this generation and yet PS2 is actually doing better than PSOne - with greater competition.

How do you explain that?

I would think 360 will do better than XBox and PS3 better than PS2.

 

[BirdySky]

Sony fanboys finally have an excuse to get a xbox...

DO IT. If ps3 is delayed because of you...god help you all.

 

[gollumsluvslave]

Anyone that really believes that Sony will give Microsoft TWO holiday periods uncontested needs to give me a hit of what they are smoking, cos it must be some good shit. :lol

Especially if MS are targetting a Halo 3 launch Holiday 2006... there's no danger that Sony will let that slide, at least intentionally.

The only way that PS3 launches in 2007 is because something will have gone wrong IMHO.

 

[jimbo]

"You're assuming the market size remains stagnant.

The same was said at the beginning of this generation and yet PS2 is actually doing better than PSOne - with greater competition.

How do you explain that?

I would think 360 will do better than XBox and PS3 better than PS2."


Relatively speaking. Not overall numbers. In other words, PS3 will have less overall market share(could very well mean more overall numbers than PS2 if market does grow) and Xbox 360 more market share. The two will be closer overall.

 

[bill0527]

We do not expect the PS3 until mid 2006, at the earliest, and should Microsoft fail to garner sufficient software support to gain an insurmountable lead, we think that there is a possibility that the PS3 launch will slip into early 2007.

It seems like his whole premise is wrong here based on the fact that Microsoft already has more developers on board than they did for Xbox (at least in Japan). I also don't know of any North American or European partners that are jumping ship to PS3. I know that Factor 5 has jumped from Xbox360 to PS3 development, but they were never on board with the original Xbox to begin with so that one doesn't really count. I need to go watch that Kikizo interview with Robbie Bach again, but if I remember correctly, he said they've got like 80 games in the pipeline ready to roll out during X360's first 6 months of release. I think if you look at the facts so far, you can only come to the conclusion that this is just bad speculation from Wedbush unless they know something that we don't - possibly a lot of developers abandoning Microsoft when PS3 launches, but that seems like a stretch based on the fact that most developers have publically said they want to take a multi-platform approach.

 

[Baron Aloha]

I also don't know of any North American or European partners that are jumping ship to PS3.

For starters, none of the Japanese publishers supporting the 360 are completely "jumping ship". Having said that, Sony will be receiving a lot more western support this time around. Bioware, id, Valve and Epic will all be developing games for the PS3. Some exclusive, some not. And I wouldn't be surprised to see other Xbox/PC centric devs, like Bethesda Softworks support the PS3 as well. This will hurt MS more than the show of support toward the 360 from Japanese devs will hurt Sony IMO.

 

[Ranger X]

Those thinking about a change of leader next-gen tend to forget some stuff.

When Atari lose to Nintendo, the market was getting over-saturated and Nintendo came up with an alleluia better console, better visual and one of the most breakthrough game in the history of gaming: Super Mario Bros. Believe me, those are really special conditions and chances are that it's not happening next-gen.

When Nintendo lose to Sony, they were making mistakes from the beginning. The console was cartridge and the hardware set-up wasn't nice for develloping games. They lose to Sony because they went cartridge and alienate their third party support.
Right now the PS2 is in extremely good shape and Sony didn't make any major mistakes so far. Chances are that it will go well next gen for them.

When there's a change of leader, it's because the market is demanding it + the present leader is making BIG mistakes.

My prediction is: "PS3 vs 360" will equals to "SNES vs Genesis".

 

[bill0527]

For starters, none of the Japanese publishers supporting the 360 are completely "jumping ship". Having said that, Sony will be receiving a lot more western support this time around. Bioware, id, Valve and Epic will all be developing games for the PS3. Some exclusive, some not. And I wouldn't be surprised to see other Xbox/PC centric devs, like Bethesda Softworks support the PS3 as well. This will hurt MS more than the show of support toward the 360 from Japanese devs will hurt Sony IMO.

That may or may not be true. But if it is true, it would still be totally immaterial to the point of Xbox having a lackluster software line-up and Sony releasing in 2007 because of it. All of these names you listed may very well develop for PS3, but they are still going to be developing for Xbox 360 also. Xbox 360 can pick up additional Japanese support. PS3 can pick up additional western developer support. Its really going to be a stalemate in the 3rd party department and it will come down to whoever can make the best 1st and 2nd party exclusives for their respective system.

 

[Kano]

I fail to see how anyone could perceive Sony to be in a vulnerable spot. The videogame facet of their business is extremely profitable, a pleasant contrast to the still bleeding Microsoft; the PS2, outdated relic it is, embarrassingly outpaces the competition at a rate that has been almost unabated since its debut; and the PS3 is poised to wipe the floor with the 360, already proving itself to be technologically superior on all fronts. Sony's strangehold on this industry is set in stone, and there's nothing Microsoft can do to thwart that, short of sabotaging the PS3. Sony could delay the PS3 until 2008 and STILL come out on top.

 

[Xenon]

I see this gen being more Gen VS SNES than PS2 vs Dreamcast/Xbox/Cube. If the 360 does well in the west the support from Japan will follow. Shit some are already limping in just in case the 360 is a hit.


Thinking any company has a system war in the bag when they have to rely on 3rd parties to sell their system is foolish.

Off topic, sorta, it is amazing what effect any given success or failure in this industry could have. Its funny to think that had the Sega CD been succesful, Nintendo may still be on top. The big N would have made the SNES CD add on manufactured by Sony. I'm sure their next system would have been CD as well. Square and Capcom would have had no reason to jump ship.

 

[shantyman]

This stupid rumor is gaining a lot of traction. ZDNet is now reporting on it.