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[Mrbob]

This is said a lot, but arguably it's lucky for MS that this is the case

PS3 kits have also been less available, but a lot more mature than X360's up until very recently. Devs should have a lot more time with mature PS3 hardware for its first gen of titles than they had for X360's first gen, especially for the US launch if PS3 does not launch there till later next year (that'd be several months with the equivalent of beta kits + several months with final hardware). Sony basically had beta kits out since early summer - at least in terms of individual components - versus quite recently for X360, meaning that if PS3 launches in Fall 06 in the US, many of the first wave games at that launch will have had as much time with mature hardware as X360's second wave did.

Yes but Sony does not have software and services down pat like MS. X360 for the win!

 

[monkeymagic]

Sony ought to be scared shitless of the Xbox 360's prospects next-generation, especially if they have a lead that's more than 7-8 months. Microsoft is not Sega. I repeat, Microsoft is NOT Sega.

Microsoft doesn't have to be Sega. Nor do they have to be Nintendo.

Playstation is still Playstation.

That should guarantee at least 50M PS3s sold next gen and many many millions of gamers willing to wait for Playstation 3.

-Lots of Hardcore early Xbox, PS2 and GC owners looking to upgrade for next-gen

I would expect pretty much every XBox-only gamer to buy an X360 but Playstation and Nintendo-only gamers I wouldn't be so sure.

-Parents will spend, spend, spend this holiday and 360 will be one of the hottest gifts

I don't think anyone would dispute X360 will sell out this holiday season but one holiday season means nothing in the long term especially when there is no next gen competition around

-Microsoft will spend insane $$$ to hype 360 past even Halo 2 levels; 2nd wave of hype readied for PS3 launch

This happened this gen

-Lots of mass-market (like EA) games available for system

Happened this gen

-Hundreds of more games in development for 2006 from all around the world

Happened this gen

-Leader in online innovations for home consoles

Again happened this gen

Apart from improved Japanese developer support I don't see what else MS is doing different next gen to close the 70M gap between XBox and Playstation apart from launching 6 months early which may give them a 10-15M lead.

 

[Rhindle]

There's an interesting theory that the best thing Sony could do to slow down the X360 momentum is to delay the PS3 into '07.

Publishers are ramping up next gen development big time at the moment, on the assumption that X360 will be here this year, and PS3 by mid-'06. In other words, they are banking on being able to release on both platforms concurrently after the PS3 launch, or on X360 followed by a quick PS3 port.

If Sony were to come out and say point blank that PS3 will not be released until much later, one could imagine that development of next gen projects will slow down substantially. The X360 release schedule would thin out, and sales would suffer.

On the other hand, things could backfire. The X360 release schedule could remain decent enough, and people could be more motivated to pick it up if the PS3 release date recedes into the distance.

 

[ParkPace]

That should guarantee at least 50M PS3s sold next gen and many many millions of gamers willing to wait for Playstation 3.

Well, if you're in the same boat I'm in, with a computer that's becoming not capable of running next-gen level games and in need of an upgrade but not willing to spend $500 on a f'n graphics card and instead would rather put that money towards a console and games, then you won't "wait for PS3". Especially if it's more than a year and a half away.

I love this mentality from system fans. I really do. Why would I "wait" for PS3 and totally forsake next-gen until the holy PS3 comes out? XBox got a lot of casual love this gen. Sure it didn't outsell the PS2 but it did well enough that people know WTF the brand is. If the PS3 comes out and has games I want for it, then I'll get it. But I'm definitely not putting things on hold until I see that shit on shelves. Life goes on, even if SONY isn't ready for it to.

 

[sonycowboy]

There's an interesting theory that the best thing Sony could do to slow down the X360 momentum is to delay the PS3 into '07.

Publishers are ramping up next gen development big time at the moment, on the assumption that X360 will be here this year, and PS3 by mid-'06. In other words, they are banking on being able to release on both platforms concurrently after the PS3 launch, or on X360 followed by a quick PS3 port.

If Sony were to come out and say point blank that PS3 will not be released until much later, one could imagine that development of next gen projects will slow down substantially. The X360 release schedule would thin out, and sales would suffer.

On the other hand, things could backfire. The X360 release schedule could remain decent enough, and people could be more motivated to pick it up if the PS3 release date recedes into the distance.

I was going to post something similar regarding multiplatform games, but for the next year, they're mostly ports of PS2/Xbox games anyway and they're already well into development. But this would definitely give pause to developers ramping up for huge productions either new IP's or ground up next gen version of franchise games.

It's not going to happen, of course. The PS3 should launch in Japan in late spring and in the US and Europe in fall as planned. I think this is just a "what if" if a number of dominos fell into place regarding next gen development.

And at that point, it would be smart for Sony to hold off. It would let them make either a better system or a cheaper system and most of the "BIG" games wouldn't be ready anyway on either side.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

blah blah blah I hate MS blah blah.

Fixed.

:lol

 

[TheInkyVoid]

Microsoft doesn't have to be Sega. Nor do they have to be Nintendo.

Playstation is still Playstation.

That should guarantee at least 50M PS3s sold next gen and many many millions of gamers willing to wait for Playstation 3.



Apart from improved Japanese developer support I don't see what else MS is doing different next gen to close the 70M gap between XBox and Playstation apart from launching 6 months early which may give them a 10-15M lead.

Except that installed base isn't like interest that you accumulate over time.

For a given set of exclusive IP there is a fairly fixed set of target consumers out there. Releasing early just gets those consumers to buy sooner than later. Even if the 360 sold ten million units on the first day, if that was possible, as a console developer/publisher you know that there are still the 90+ million PS2 owners out there that want the exclusive IP that Sony has. Whenever it comes out.

If the 90+ million PS2 owners really wanted the exclusive IP, or online stuff, MS has with the xbox and now with the 360, you would see large numbers of Sony owners selling their systems to buy cheap xboxes. That just isn't happening.

 

[Ceb]

Well, if you're in the same boat I'm in, with a computer that's becoming not capable of running next-gen level games and in need of an upgrade but not willing to spend $500 on a f'n graphics card and instead would rather put that money towards a console and games, then you won't "wait for PS3". Especially if it's at least a year and a half away.

I love this mentality from system fans. I really do. Why would I "wait" for PS3 and totally forsake next-gen until the holy PS3 comes out? XBox got a lot of casual love this gen. Sure it didn't outsell the PS2 but it did well enough that people know WTF the brand is.

Funny, I'm in the same boat you're in (with a computer that's guaranteed even worse though), but I don't find the idea of waiting a year for my next-gen console purchase to be that horrible. Even though I'm a massive graphics whore, PS2 games can still amaze me visually. I don't think I'm the only one with that opinion either.

 

[donny2112]

This may disappoint investors, who have come to expect ebbs and flows in software growth rates during past console cycles. If our estimates are correct, the four-year pattern of growth will be 5%, 8%, 10%, and 10%. This is a healthy growth profile, but far below the 20% plus growth that many investors have come to expect.

Assuming average price of new games in next-generation is $60:

$60 is 120% of $50, so if software growth is 10% or less per year, Wedbush is predicting a reduction in total game sales with an increase in total revenue.

Example:
Say you sell $100 worth of games at $5 a piece in year 1. That's 20 games.
You sell 5% more in year two for $105, but games now cost $6. That's 17.5 games.
8% more the next year at $6 per game is 18.9 games.
10% more the next year => 20.8 games

So it'll take a couple of years for software to sell like it did this year for the next generation consoles according to Wedbush?

Obviously I'm not looking at the whole picture (current gen titles, budget titles, etc.), but is that what Wedbush is sort of saying? Is there usually a software decrease at console transitions?

 

[Link316]

Apart from improved Japanese developer support I don't see what else MS is doing different next gen to close the 70M gap between XBox and Playstation apart from launching 6 months early which may give them a 10-15M lead.

I dunno, it took them 4 years to sell 20M Xboxes, selling 10-15M X360s in 6 months sounds too optimistic, the other thing is Xbox sales didn't start picking up until around 2003 so alot of the Xbox userbase only had it for 1-2 years, they might not be in a rush to upgrade so soon

 

[jiggle]

If the games are ready, release it asap. If not, I rather see delays. PS2's rpg lineup will keep me occupied in the meantime.

 

[monkeymagic]

...then you won't "wait for PS3". Especially if it's at least a year and a half away.

6-7 months after X360 launch is not a year and a half away.

To be honest the fact that you're a PC gamer, visit gaming forums and keep upto speed with the latest hardware specs and news means you don't fit the profile of the typical Playstation gamer.

Most of the 90M PS2 owners probably don't even realise there is a 'next gen' at this moment in time

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Most of the 90M PS2 owners probably don't even realise there is a 'next gen' at this moment in time

I think most of the active video gaming population are very aware of PS3 and X360 at this point. Between the cheesey MTV X360 special and the PS3 hype from E3, I see enough causal gamers that show clear awareness that the next year to year and a half is when the new set of goods hits. This kind of news filters out pretty easily to the general, non-geek population.

 

[monkeymagic]

If the 90+ million PS2 owners really wanted the exclusive IP, or online stuff, MS has with the xbox and now with the 360, you would see large numbers of Sony owners selling their systems to buy cheap xboxes. That just isn't happening.

I dunno, it took them 4 years to sell 20M Xboxes, selling 10-15M X360s in 6 months sounds too optimistic, the other thing is Xbox sales didn't start picking up until around 2003 so alot of the Xbox userbase only had it for 1-2 years, they might not be in a rush to upgrade so soon

I agree on both counts.

I was being optimistic with the 10-15M figure but perhaps a more realistic guestimate (but still fairly optimistic) could be taken by doubling XBox's current average yearly sales over a 6 months period which would give it a 5M lead by the time PS3 launches.

 

[Mashing]

EA has their cock so firmly entrenched up Sony's ass that if by some chance Sony completely collapsed (Enron like), then they'd go down with them. Do they ever say anything positive about Sony's competitors?

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Sony's their main bitch; what else are they supposed to say? EA's like a huge, overstuffed lamprey riding the shark that is Sony.

 

[TheDuce22]

I just had a flashback to Nintendo sticking with NES for far too long. Somehow I doubt the people at Sony are dumb enough to make the exact same mistake.

 

[sonycowboy]

EA has their cock so firmly entrenched up Sony's ass that if by some chance Sony completely collapsed (Enron like), then they'd go down with them. Do they ever say anything positive about Sony's competitors?

EA didn't say anything (other than next gen development is expensive and hard), this was just a bit of speculation by Wedbush as sort of a "what if".

 

[TheInkyVoid]

EA has their cock so firmly entrenched up Sony's ass that if by some chance Sony completely collapsed (Enron like), then they'd go down with them. Do they ever say anything positive about Sony's competitors?

No one at EA, who are at a high enough level that matters, cares one bit about Sony. They care about putting their full support behind what is going to be the dominant platform. Regardless of what one thinks of their games or the company itself, they have been wildly successful at targeting their resources at the right platform over the years.

The management at EA are cold hearted businessmen who are interested in who will make their options rise in value. That company has been and for next gen will be Sony.

 

[gamewhooper]

I just hope it won't turn out like the Dreamcast where all the hype shifts to the PS3. I know Microsoft has much larger pockets and some great-looking upcoming games for the Xbox 360 but it would be nice to see Sony's ass dethroned.

Maybe then they'd go back to making their systems quality and not add a bunch of stuff in their systems to force the cost up.

 

[TheDuce22]

The management at EA are cold hearted businessmen who are interested in who will make their options rise in value. That company has been and for next gen will be Sony.

EA is one of the biggest backers of Xbox 360.

 

[TheInkyVoid]

EA is one of the biggest backers of Xbox 360.

Yeah, they will also put out games for the 360 and Revolution.

If you could see a little bubble floating above the EA execs heads there in Redwood Shores showing what they are thinking it would say "PS3..."

 

[teiresias]

I just hope it won't turn out like the Dreamcast where all the hype shifts to the PS3. I know Microsoft has much larger pockets and some great-looking upcoming games for the Xbox 360 but it would be nice to see Sony's ass dethroned.

Maybe then they'd go back to making their systems quality and not add a bunch of stuff in their systems to force the cost up.

Yeah, because my gaming experience on PS2 has been just sooooooooooo awful.

 

[TheDuce22]

If you could see a little bubble floating above the EA execs heads there in Redwood Shores showing what they are thinking it would say "PS3..."

So you hope. The fact is at this point they are totally behind Xbox 360 and that wont change if the launch is sucessfull.

 

[ParkPace]

I just had a flashback to Nintendo sticking with NES for far too long. Somehow I doubt the people at Sony are dumb enough to make the exact same mistake.

What if Square Enix get ready for next-gen before Sony does? [/what if?]

 

[monkeymagic]

I don't think it matters who EA supports since apart from Dreamcast they've been pretty much multiplatform this gen.

We know for a fact that they'll be fully behind X360 and PS3 (not sure what they've revealed about Rev but I'm sure they'll be there too).

It's who they don't support that is left at a disadvantage (depending on which demographic they're targeting)

However, in future generations, when development budgets baloon and if architectures differ wildly I can see them focusing on 1 or 2 platforms just as smaller and medium sized developers are doing now.

 

[BigBoss]

What if Square Enix get ready for next-gen before Sony does? [/what if?]

Microsoft would get such killer apps like FFXI? :lol

 

[TheInkyVoid]

So you hope.

Hope?

Heh...

 

[jiggle]

What if Square Enix get ready for next-gen before Sony does? [/what if?]

Because Square Enix will obviously have a big budget RPG finished should Sony launch spring/fall 2006?

 

[Ranger X]

I always felt Sony was rushing the PS3 because of the early coming 360.
I also always thought that was stupid from their part. I wouldn't mind a 2007 launch with better games, hardware that won't break after 2 hours of use and a substancially lower price maybe.
There's also another good batch of games coming for the PS2 and wasn't planning to buy a PS3 (or any next-gen console) before 2007.

I really doubt Sony will wait even if the 360 isn't sucessfull as expected. They are not that smart, they will have their rushed launch of rushed games and 360 ports + high price that won't justify this lack of superiority over the 360.

 

[monkeymagic]

What if Square Enix get ready for next-gen before Sony does? [/what if?]

Playstation's non-reliance on any one single IP is its strong point.

At the beginning of this gen it was what if EA, Konami, Namco, and Capcom etc. supported XBox. Well they did (granted not all of them to the extent that they supported PS2).

We see the same thing happening next gen with RR6 possibly debuting on X360 and FFXI but the big hitters will either remain Playstation exclusive or there will be new IPs to replace them.

 

[DSN2K]

will be interesting to see if the 360 can beat the PS2 on a monthly basis after the launch period of course.

 

[Mrbob]

will be interesting to see if the 360 can beat the PS2 on a monthly basis after the launch period of course.

Not bloody likely.

In fact, PS2 will give X360 a beat down in sales for November and December of this year as well.

 

[Barnimal]

the ps2 selling more and more has nothing to do with people not being sick of this gen but more with the fact that the industry IS growing and becoming more accessible. its no longer nerd play anymore. just like people flock to the newest technology in cell phones they will do the same with gaming. this generation is so done its not even funny. i cant wait until november.

 

[BigBoss]

just like people flock to the newest technology in cell phones they will do the same with gaming. this generation is so done its not even funny. i cant wait until november.

So you're expecting the Xbox 360 to outsell the PS2 this holiday season?

 

[xexex]

i'll bet PS2 is going to sell 3 to 5 times as much as Xbox 360 in November and December.


in Japan, for the months of Dec through March, PS2 will probably outsell Xbox 360 like 10 to 1.

 

[genjiZERO]

So you're expecting the Xbox 360 to outsell the PS2 this holiday season?

I would (assuming we’re talking about consoles), but I don’t think it necessarily means anything; it’s new technology, so the tech savvy will buy one, and all of this gen’s current XBOX owners will buy one too. So it’s going to sell a bunch. But what’s more important is how much software (PS2 vs. XBOX360) is comparatively sold.

 

[Solid]

didn't PSone like outsell both GC and Xbox back in 2001 (or was it 2002)?

 

[Pimpwerx]

The year was 1999. The place was GAF.... PEACE.

 

[Rhindle]

Of course the frigging PS2 is going to sell more than X360 this year. It's a completely meaningless comparison.

 

[Mrbob]

Anyway, if Sony feel complacent enough to milk the PS2 all they are doing is helping MS create the new PS2 for the next generation of systems. That, my friends, is the Xbox 360. Coming to your homes with the best selection of next generation games, soon!

 

[TheInkyVoid]

Anyway, if Sony feel complacent enough to milk the PS2 all they are doing is helping MS create the new Dreamcast for the next generation of systems. That, my friends, is the Xbox 360. Coming to your homes with the best selection of next generation games, soon!

Fixed that for you.

 

[Gregory]

Sony can wait as long as they wish. The Sony fanbase will wait no matter what. They can even take double the price of the Xbox 360 and still totally dominate. It`s as simple as that.

 

[monkeymagic]

I can envisage a $129 and then $99 PS2 outselling both X360 and PS3 for the next 18 months which would allow Sony to hold off pricing PS3 for the mass market until 2007.

Could that possibly be the reasoning behind KK's 'high PS3 price' comment?

 

[Amir0x]

They can even take double the price of the Xbox 360 and still totally dominate. It`s as simple as that.

No they cannot. If they release at double the price or even a hundred dollars more than XBX360, PS3 = done.

 

[Cerebral Palsy]

Sony can wait as long as they wish. The Sony fanbase will wait no matter what. They can even take double the price of the Xbox 360 and still totally dominate. It`s as simple as that.

I thought like that before the transition from the SNES/Genesis to N64/PSX/Saturn. Like Nintendo, Sony is not invincible.




And TheInkyVoid is fucking hilarious.

 

[seanoff]

i think wedbush are smoking stuff. I would be keen to launch PS3 on top of a fair X360 launch in an attempt to bury it.

Its like sport, u don't give the opposition a chance to get going, if they suck in the first period, you do all you can to make sure even if they're ok after that your lead is just too big.

 

[whytemyke]

Maybe Sony SHOULD delay another half a year. I mean, it'd surely sucky to miss the 06 holiday season, and I have no idea what kind of games they could launch that'd actually bring in significant pocketchange during Q3 and Q4 06, but supposing they did wait to launch, it could be very interesting.

You hold off and set up another Killzone title, another GTA title, MGS4 and maybe even have Squenix set you up with one as well. Odds are they'll have a Jak title set, as well, and probably yet ANOTHER Tony Hawk game and another SOCOM. You wait til mid year 07 to release. Let all the steam die down from the 360 stuff. You release with your awesome library in the middle of the year at, say, $350. It's going to piss off MS, as I'm working under the assumption that they really are hoping to release Halo3 near the PS3 release date, and I can only imagine how much Xbox would rather hold off on Halo3 til the fall and not in mid summer. Then once november approaches, you drop the system price, so you've already got a good solid group of people that have bought it, but you'll still get the attention during the holidays. It could work, and that way, as Nintendo will probably delay the Revolution a bit as well if they feel that there's no hurry to compete with the 360 (and lets face it, I doubt nintendo cares nearly as much for their consoles as they do for their handhelds at this point), then it really just kills the steam that MS has built up by trying to take the bull by the horns.

It could backfire, as others have said, but it'd be interesting to say the least. What would add to the acceptance of a delay by Sony, as well, is if their software/hardware are continually built up, so that when they do launch, they can still offer their DVD-R attatchment and whatnot that they were toying with. With nintendo doing the same thing... could be interesting.

Not that I think it'll happen. I think the release dates will go on as they are now, with everyone releasing crappy games (for the most part) at launch and filling in the libraries later. This is a fairly high-stakes game these guys are playing and I doubt anyone has the balls to go out on any limbs when hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake.

 

[whytemyke]

i think wedbush are smoking stuff. I would be keen to launch PS3 on top of a fair X360 launch in an attempt to bury it.

Its like sport, u don't give the opposition a chance to get going, if they suck in the first period, you do all you can to make sure even if they're ok after that your lead is just too big.

...ever hear the phrase 'rope a dope'?

 

[sscrew]

If Sony wait till 2007, it's giving MS the crown on a silver platter.

X360 will be extremely powerful still. Will have no other console on the market with power remotely close. Will technically have exclusives of every next-gen game on the system. Will have infinite more marketshare than any other console. Sompanies prepared for next-gen will have the X360 as an only choice, and when it has no competition, it looks like an excellent choice.

With games with visuals of PGR3 on the market, the X360 will be picked up by all sorts of people. Next-Gen Madden, PGR3, Ghost Recon 3, Ridge Racer 360, Kameo, Project Dark Zero, Gears of War etc. all out before PS3 has its console out, would be too much reason for anyone except the die hard Sony fans found here to upgrade. In turn, it will give MS a great deal of developer support and an easy victory.

Also, with MS pockets, the advertising and persuading of devs be too much for people to resist.