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What is the sales potential of a brand new 2D Mario nowadays(Super Mario Bros Wonder)

What will be the lifetime sales of Super Mario Bros Wonder?

  • >5 million

    Votes: 5 5.4%
  • 5 to 7.5 million

    Votes: 3 3.3%
  • 7.5 million to 10 million

    Votes: 15 16.3%
  • 10 million to 12.5 million

    Votes: 5 5.4%
  • 12.5 million to 15 million

    Votes: 7 7.6%
  • 15 million to 17.5 million

    Votes: 10 10.9%
  • 17.5 million to 20 million

    Votes: 3 3.3%
  • 20 million to 25 million

    Votes: 21 22.8%
  • 25 million to 30 million

    Votes: 9 9.8%
  • <30 million

    Votes: 14 15.2%

  • Total voters
    92

Nautilus

Banned
Pretty simple question: How much do you think Super Mario Bros Wonder can sell, considering that pretty much every single Nintendo IP has seen a big growth during the Switch era.

I believe it will sell a minimum of 20 million units, but what do you guys think?
 

Hudo

Member
Even the fairly mediocre (and I say that as a Mario fan) New Super Mario Bros. games sold pretty well, from what I remember. Like double digit millions. So if Nintendo market this right, I can easily see it selling 15 million.

The shareholders will be pleased in any case.
 

BlakeofT

Member
Even the fairly mediocre (and I say that as a Mario fan) New Super Mario Bros. games sold pretty well, from what I remember. Like double digit millions. So if Nintendo market this right, I can easily see it selling 15 million.

The shareholders will be pleased in any case.
Just looked up the numbers. I could be wrong but it seems that the top 3 Mario games by sales are the original at 40M, New Super Mario Bros (DS) at ~30M and New Super Mario Bros Wii also at 30M. The port/remaster/whatever of the Wii U game on the Switch is at 14M, which combined with the original Wii U game's release comes to 20M.

Yeah, I think a 2D Mario game on the Switch is pretty much guaranteed to sell multiple 10s of millions of copies.

source: https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Mario#New_Super_Mario_Bros.
 

Hudo

Member
the original at 40M, New Super Mario Bros (DS) at ~30M and New Super Mario Bros Wii also at 30M. The port/remaster/whatever of the Wii U game on the Switch is at 14M, which combined with the original Wii U game's release comes to 20M.
Holy hell, that's more than I expected.
 

Zavotion

Neo Member
Link To Video:

Check out my review! "Super Mario Bros Wonder" appears to be a new installment in the 2D Mario franchise that lacks substantial innovation, relying on visual changes and gimmicks rather than pushing the boundaries of gameplay mechanics.

While some aspects, like the multiplayer and certain enemy variations, show potential, the overall repetitive nature of the game and its focus on novelty without depth raise concerns about its ability to provide a satisfying gaming experience.

The emphasis on visuals over mechanics is disappointing, as deeper experiences and genuine innovation are often more captivating for me. I sincerely hope they prove me wrong, but I hope you enjoy and let me know what you think!

Thank you for your time,

Zave
 

Lethal01

Member
Link To Video:

Check out my review! "Super Mario Bros Wonder" appears to be a new installment in the 2D Mario franchise that lacks substantial innovation, relying on visual changes and gimmicks rather than pushing the boundaries of gameplay mechanics.

While some aspects, like the multiplayer and certain enemy variations, show potential, the overall repetitive nature of the game and its focus on novelty without depth raise concerns about its ability to provide a satisfying gaming experience.

The emphasis on visuals over mechanics is disappointing, as deeper experiences and genuine innovation are often more captivating for me. I sincerely hope they prove me wrong, but I hope you enjoy and let me know what you think!

Thank you for your time,

Zave


Nothing like when a Youtuber combines their desperate need to be funny with the desperate need to find as much to complain as much as possible, makes it clear you shouldn't pay attention to them despite having a decent point here or there.
 
Last edited:

Kikorin

Member
More than 20 millions. I've seen an insane hype for the game even by people that I didn't even knew play games.

But if we consider that a random port like New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe is actually the 9th most sold Switch game with 15.41 millions, not surprising imagine a new mainline 2D Super Mario game do a lot better on one of the most successful Nintendo console ever.
 

Ozzie666

Member
The return on investment for this title is something most publisher can only dream of. With Mario movie success, it will probably give a small push to any Mario title. I expect this and the Mario RPG remake to extremely well for Nintendo. There is something about 2D Mario and how it reaches all ages groups, gamers new and old. It's a comfort food for anyone who played nes or snes. What's impressive is the amount of detail, design, passion that goes into these titles. Can it reach 20 mil? I dunno.

Curious how successful it will be in Japan vs North America.
 

GigaBowser

The bear of bad news
Nothing like when a Youtuber combines their desperate need to be funny with the desperate need to find as much to complain about as possible, makes it clear you shouldn't pay attention to them despite having a decent point here or there.
Yes that video was terrible my friends buuuuuuuut I'm nots that excited for Wonder buuuuuuuut it will sell over 20 millions easy
 

UnNamed

Banned
Long time ago Reggie, when he still was at Nintendo, said casual gamers were mainly interested in two Nintendo games: Mario Kart and Classic Mario, especially this one because it was the main Mario parents played when they were kids and easier to play and understand compared to 3D Marios.
 

AV

We ain't outta here in ten minutes, we won't need no rocket to fly through space
Tens of millions. We haven't had one in a decade.

Unfortunately those jabronis decided to release it on Spider-Man 2 day so it's a wait-and-pick-it-up for me.
 

BlackTron

Member
Link To Video:

Check out my review! "Super Mario Bros Wonder" appears to be a new installment in the 2D Mario franchise that lacks substantial innovation, relying on visual changes and gimmicks rather than pushing the boundaries of gameplay mechanics.

While some aspects, like the multiplayer and certain enemy variations, show potential, the overall repetitive nature of the game and its focus on novelty without depth raise concerns about its ability to provide a satisfying gaming experience.

The emphasis on visuals over mechanics is disappointing, as deeper experiences and genuine innovation are often more captivating for me. I sincerely hope they prove me wrong, but I hope you enjoy and let me know what you think!

Thank you for your time,

Zave


I knew this was going to be terrible when it started with "Check out my review!" for a game that isn't out yet.

I especially take issue with this: "While some aspects, like the multiplayer and certain enemy variations, show potential, the overall repetitive nature of the game..." aside from the assertion that a game is repetitive that we haven't played yet, what we HAVE gleaned from the trailer is that each level has "Wonder Flowers" that, as far as the evidence we have so far goes, creates a different unique effect in EVERY LEVEL for each flower. Your concern that the flowers only change the sensory environment on the screen to "trick" us, and don't affect the platforming, seems intentionally oblivious to what is happening on the screen directly in front of us, in order to complain.

Mario grabbed a wonder flower. The sound and music changed. I failed to notice that all the pipes came to life and Mario now has to navigate a living moving environment. The platforming did not change, I'm concerned.

Mario grabbed a wonder flower. The sound and music changed. I failed to notice that Mario is now surrounded by giant bouncy characters that will completely change the challenge of reaching my goal successfully. The platforming did not change, I'm concerned.


Most likely every single level will have a different Wonder effect like this and no one knows what the heck will happen until you try it. LOL will probably be the least repetitive 2D Mario since the 90s
 

tanasten

glad to heard people isn't stupid anymore
With the momentum of the Switch, and the Xmas next to. Only this year it's going to end over 10M. Next year will be on 15M easily, and depending on the Switch 2 compatibility, will end on 20 M at least.
 

Ceallach

Smells like fresh rosebuds
Link To Video:

Check out my review! "Super Mario Bros Wonder" appears to be a new installment in the 2D Mario franchise that lacks substantial innovation, relying on visual changes and gimmicks rather than pushing the boundaries of gameplay mechanics.

While some aspects, like the multiplayer and certain enemy variations, show potential, the overall repetitive nature of the game and its focus on novelty without depth raise concerns about its ability to provide a satisfying gaming experience.

The emphasis on visuals over mechanics is disappointing, as deeper experiences and genuine innovation are often more captivating for me. I sincerely hope they prove me wrong, but I hope you enjoy and let me know what you think!

Thank you for your time,

Zave

How about you go fuck yourself and shill somewhere else.
 

conpfreak

Member
This game is going to clear 20 million easily. TotK did 18 million in 3 months, and you think this game going to do anywhere below that in the same timeframe with a holiday included? Doubt it.
 

A.Romero

Member
Link To Video:

Check out my review! "Super Mario Bros Wonder" appears to be a new installment in the 2D Mario franchise that lacks substantial innovation, relying on visual changes and gimmicks rather than pushing the boundaries of gameplay mechanics.

While some aspects, like the multiplayer and certain enemy variations, show potential, the overall repetitive nature of the game and its focus on novelty without depth raise concerns about its ability to provide a satisfying gaming experience.

The emphasis on visuals over mechanics is disappointing, as deeper experiences and genuine innovation are often more captivating for me. I sincerely hope they prove me wrong, but I hope you enjoy and let me know what you think!

Thank you for your time,

Zave

I thought the game was coming out in October. Does the press have review copies already?
 

fart town usa

Gold Member
It's so weird to see recent threads and the OP is banned. What in the world are people doing to get banned? 😅🫠

It'll sell great and probably be the first Mario side scroller for a lot of kids. Lifetime probably 15+ million.
 
Well there’s precedent to look to… so the NSMB games all did extremely well. 10-20+ million sellers all, even on the lower end. So that’s something to bear in mind.

This game is on the Switch. Which is literally the most successful platform Nintendo’s ever done, aside from the DS.

Mario brand has never been stronger. Odyssey is a 20+ million seller, which is crazy. It’s been a very long time since the last original Mario game on Switch, 3D or 2D. So the 11 year gap since the last original 2D Mario on any platform has also helped create some demand.

The Mario movie exceeded all expectations and is one of the highest grossing animated films ever. So that’s definitely helped and will continue to help.

Wonder is positioned as Nintendo’s big fall game. So all of Nintendo’s huge marketing strength is being put into this. And as fantastic as Mario RPG looks, it’s an RPG so it’s a 3-5 million seller range at best. So Wonder is what they are hinging on to carry them into early 2024. And the game looks fantastic, no doubt it will do very well for them.

All of this combined along with my gut feeling I would say Wonder will likely join the 20-25 million seller club. Very surprised if it doesn’t at least crack 20 million.
 
Last edited:

Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
I really don't wanna pick a number, because I really don't like doing that. But yeah, it's gonna be huge. We're coming off the huge success of the movie and a lot of people really like 2D Mario, so... I have high expectations.
 
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