*looks around*
Yes there is still ample reason to believe that PlayStation will have a showcase sooner rather than later. I'll just quote myself from a recent post:
1. We know a Helldivers 2 trailer has been prepared as of a few weeks ago, and a brief snippet of the trailer was made by Dusk Golem and found its way onto the internet. It didn't show up at Gamescom, the State of Play or TGS. This is a first party SIE game being made by Arrowhead and Sony typically reveals their games at a showcase with very few exceptions (ie. Horizon CotM and TLOU Part 1). This could indicate the trailer was made for an upcoming showcase
2. Yoshida has stated he expects the next FF16 trailer to come out in October. Sony obviously has strong ties ties to this game and it usually shows up at their events. This was recently reiterated by Yoshida.
3. PSVR2 is launching early 2023 and has yet to get a release date and price. So far they've been mirroring its info release pretty closely to the 2020 info release of the PS5, meaning a price/date at a showcase would be the next step, along with the rest of its launch lineup since all we've gotten so far are "sneak peaks".
4. Atlus has advised there will be no new game announcements at their concert in October. Some seem to believe this could mean a reveal at a PS showcase instead.
5. Kojima has been editing something lately. It wasn't something for Gamescom or TGS. It could maybe be related to his podcast? Or he could be editing a trailer for a PS Showcase. It would seem a bit early for him to be editing a trailer for TGA. We have a leak of Death Stranding 2 being a thing, and we know KojiPro are working on multiple projects, so this could be one of 'em.
6. Sony's about to end the marketing cycle for their last game announced back in 2020, and nothing else they've announced has a definitive release date (Spider-Man 2, Wolverine, Horizon CotM, TLOU MP). The pandemic pushed back their marketing/releases, so that's to be expected, but they'll have to get their next wave of marketing done sooner rather than later. Spider-Man 2 is launching in 2023 and so far we only have a teaser video from last years showcase, for example. We know that 2 unannounced live service games are going to launch this fiscal year (by March 31, 2023), and those haven't been revealed yet. Helldivers 2 s likely one of them, at least.
7. Precedent. Sony's held a September showcase the past 2 years, and while we got the September SoP, we haven't gotten their showcase yet. Holding a showcase in October would still fit the pattern.
8. Sony's first party content has been suspiciously absent from their June and September State of Plays, which almost entirely focused on third parties with only a couple of already announced first party games sprinkled in. The mere fact that they've held them back tells us that they're saving them for something, which would have to be a showcase. We know they've got over 25 titles in development so they could potentially have a LOT of titles to show us that're releasing in 2023 and 2024.
It's coming folks, just a wee bit longer