Sure you can tell yourself that to sleep. Let me just remind of how many Microsoft products and venture both hardware and software have already failed. A calculated risk is still a risk, and MS is not new to failures.
This is what I have in mind as potential recurring subscribers**:
1. MS hardcore fan who would support MS no matter what.
2. Trophy hunters.
3. High schoolers who play a lot of games every month - who is not into Fortnite (or other F2P), Fifa, CoD and the likes.
4. Those who have a lot of money that they don't care they waste $15 a month even though they're playing GTA6 (or the latest 3rd party AAA games) almost everytime he turns on his console.
It's so different how we consume games from movies or shows. A gamer can play a game for months and months if he is so engrossed in such a game. This is certainly the case with many FIFA/COD/Fortnite players. Each and every game that is not included in the gamepass service is a gamepass competition. (just a copy paste of my old post)
**as opposed to those who will subscribe for a month to play a game then unsubscribe
There are as many Gamepass subscribers as there are people who bought the PS4s best selling exclusive.
If that only includes the 4 potential recurring subscribers you speak of.....then MS is clearly doing something right because thats what a good portion of the gaming population wants.
So they might as well do it.
I dunno why you trying to downplay it.
But if MS only had old games on Gamepass and it still reached ~20 million people, we could say the service is shit.....but its paying for itself easy work, so MS wins either which way.
Its just good for all that the service is actually great and users understand that and are subscribing.
MS doesnt count people who join with trials for a month or whatever, just like they dont count trial gold members as active users.
Gamepass users are tracked only when active otherwise they would skew their own numbers when trying to make business decisions.
EA Play is part of Gamepass now FYI