Support NeoGAF

[chonga]

I had to check and make sure my numbers were accurate

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony...e-in-the-united-states-alone-in-2021.1658287/

You're not accurate. Well, your numbers are, but not what said in relation to them.

The $15.9 billion figure is total revenue for all spend on the platform across three years - not COD spend and not per year.

It states $800m from COD in the US and $1.5 billion globally, in 2021. It continues to then state that people who play COD spent $15.9 billion globally from 2019 to 2021 on the platform.

Nah I missed that but if so then yeah, barring any changes in spending habits they could make that back in 5 years or so

Revenue is not profit, so ignoring that it remains an asset which has a value, in terms of 'making it back' you need to be looking at profit.

 

[buenoblue]

£30 to get 5 day early access and the cod bots will lap it up

 

[Humdinger]

I find it hard to believe MS will make up the lost sales through increased GP growth. They don't have much of a ceiling to work with. Where are these roughly 5 - 10 million extra new, sustained subs going to come from? It's not like they have a ton of Xbox consoles out there in the first place. Most people who want GP have already signed up for it. I find it hard to imagine there are 5 to 10 million Xbox owners who both love CoD and yet have not already signed up. There are PC sales, but from what I understand, that's not a big market for GP. Maybe they're banking on PC GP booming, because of CoD?

I'm no business whiz kid, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

 

[Jigsaah]

Didn't Ryan himself (in poorly redacted papers) say Playstation players alone spend like $16 BILLION a year on COD alone?

They will be fine

Let's not forget this...

King annual IAP revenue 2023 | Statista

In 2023, social gaming company King (also known as King.com and King Digital Entertainment) generated 1.37 billion U.S.

www.statista.com

 

[SenkiDala]

Good luck making that $70B back.

You think COD makes money from people buying the game 60/70$ ? Lol sure it makes money but 90% of the revenue of COD is mtx... Since at least a decade.

And having the game included in GP will potentially increase the revenue, people will feel "well I didn't pay for the game, so I can get this skin and this one for 20$, that's ok". It makes COD "almost F2P".

 

[Gambit2483]

Revenue is not profit, so ignoring that it remains an asset which has a value, in terms of 'making it back' you need to be looking at profit.

I get that, but the figure was for the Playstation platform alone. If that's not even counting PC or (soon to be) Switch numbers then I find it hard for them not to make some decent profit, based on microtransactions alone. If MS actually thinks they can make a profit by putting it on Gamepass I say let them. Either way we will find out in the next year or 2.

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

You're not accurate. Well, your numbers are, but not what said in relation to them.

The $15.9 billion figure is total revenue for all spend on the platform across three years - not COD spend and not per year.

It states $800m from COD in the US and $1.5 billion globally, in 2021. It continues to then state that people who play COD spent $15.9 billion globally from 2019 to 2021 on the platform.


Revenue is not profit, so ignoring that it remains an asset which has a value, in terms of 'making it back' you need to be looking at profit.

I follow ya, I misread it as it states they spent that annual for everything on PS

 

[Optimus Lime]

Suicidal behaviour from MS. They are clearly hellbent on devaluing their own assets in pursuit of Netflix-style growth and recurring revenue streams. Phil is a fucking moron. All this does is say to an audience that CoD, one of MS's biggest money spinners, has no value. It's just GP fodder, and it sits alongside the shitty pixel art games, Redfall, and Forza.

 

[Hero of Spielberg]

I’m shocked at the low amount of replies for this great news though. Makes me wonder how many posts there would be if it was confirmed on a new tier or not on game pass at all.

They’re busy scouring Twitter for negative Xbox news to make threads about

 

[Fredrik]

I wonder if they will offer a game pass exclusive early entry option (at an additional cost) to get the game early, like Starfield.

Starfield wasn’t early on Gamepass, it was early if you bought the Premium Edition.

 

[Thabass]

They're at 6 now? Man I feel old. Don't people just play Warzone for free now? Do people still care about regular CoD?

I still love the traditional Call of Duty experience. I don't think I will ever tire of it honestly. And I'm getting sick of shooters altogether.

 

[FoxMcChief]

Starfield wasn’t early on Gamepass, it was early if you bought the Premium Edition.

You were able to upgrade the game pass version to a “premium” edition.

 

[FoxMcChief]

Yes, but now Xbox players and some PC players won't pay for it. Therefore reduced revenue. I imagine they will try to compensate by making as many games available on PS5 as possible.

Palworld still sold well on steam, despite being on pc game pass.

 

[newtypepilot]

xbox on its way to recoup that 70b, by telling its customers to not buy games!!

 

[FoxMcChief]

xbox on its way to recoup that 70b, by telling its customers to not buy games!!

I wasn’t going to buy the game regardless, but now that it’s included with game pass, I will try the multiplayer and potentially buy battle passes if I like the game. Kind of seems like a win-win situation.

 

[reinking]

xbox on its way to recoup that 70b, by telling its customers to not buy games!!

Microsoft is looking for ROI. If they believe bringing it to game pass will get more people playing (think PC) then this is their move. If they increase subs. Better. If they cost PlayStation a few customers because those players switch to PC. Even better.

What they are doing is essentially turning COD into an (almost) F2P game on platforms other than PlayStation. We just have to wait and see how it plays out.

 

[Ozriel]

Good to see cold shower from Matt, really.

Nobody will ditch their current platform for CoD, but it could bump the service a bit like a last hurrah.

Suicidal behaviour from MS. They are clearly hellbent on devaluing their own assets in pursuit of Netflix-style growth and recurring revenue streams. Phil is a fucking moron. All this does is say to an audience that CoD, one of MS's biggest money spinners, has no value. It's just GP fodder, and it sits alongside the shitty pixel art games, Redfall, and Forza.

 

[Optimus Lime]

What an intensely valuable contribution to the thread. Thank you for sharing it, I think I can speak for all of Gaf when I say that we are better off for your presence.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

Awesome.

Thank you MS. More money saved. I'll let the bean counters at head office figure out how to cover my purchase with the $80 billion profit they make per year.

What about the bean counters at Microsoft Gaming for a division that generates nowhere near $80 billion profit per year (likely barely more than $1 billion a year in net profits all things considered)?

Which will lead to less Xbox console sales. Which then leads to slower gamepass growth.

That's the big one IMO. Hardware is still important for Game Pass growth and direct competitors to Xbox aren't going to let MS put Game Pass on their own devices. And the more I think about it, Xboxes become PC gaming devices running regular Windows (even with an Xbox UI frontend) would also hamper Game Pass growth, because those devices will have to sell at a premium to make profits and make up for likelihood of many people doing their game purchases through Steam instead.

So that basically means the next Xbox devices are still going to be closer competitors to PlayStation & Switch 2 than ASUS Rog Ally or Lenovo Legion Go (even if Xbox hardware will be taking on more PC-like approaches in areas). Which means...little to no chance Sony & Nintendo allow Game Pass on their platforms. Meaning, the multi-plat publishing strategy MS are pursuing now on PS & Nintendo dilutes appeal of selling Game Pass through their own Xbox hardware.

But the main reason they're doing that multiplatform strategy...is because of too many Game Pass subscribers who get the service for cheap and don't buy many games anymore (1P or 3P), deteriorating B2P & MTX revenue on Xbox meaning less profits for MS on Xbox hardware. So basically they are trying to push a service whose existence in part helped facilitate their need to publish on rival platforms to begin with. And if they stop that multiplatform publishing strategy, they have to rely on a sea of Xbox customers who...don't really buy that many games on Xbox.

They (MS) are a rock in a hard place, but they 100% created that problem for themselves.

 

[Jibran#one]

They really are going all in on gamepass aren't they
A few days weeks ago people were saying xbox is dead now xbox drops an oppenheimer.
No matter how much u want to underplay cod blops they are the best of call of duties and this year this will be the biggest game.
Cold war was an amazing game ok campaign , good multi-player and God like zombies.

 

[FoxMcChief]

What about the bean counters at Microsoft Gaming for a division that generates nowhere near $80 billion profit per year (likely barely more than $1 billion a year in net profits all things considered)?

You got to spend money to lose money.

 

[ManaByte]

They really are going all in on gamepass aren't they
A few days weeks ago people were saying xbox is dead now xbox drops an oppenheimer.
No matter how much u want to underplay cod blops they are the best of call of duties and this year this will be the biggest game.
Cold war was an amazing game ok campaign , good multi-player and God like zombies.

This is also the first COD with a 4 year dev time.

 

[Jibran#one]

This is also the first COD with a 4 year dev time.

Yup and judging from the cast
Saddam, Clinton, Bush, Margaret this looks like a solid campaign
And multi-player has always been solid
Also i have a feeling zombies this year will be great since mw3 zombies sucked
This is a huge get for xbox and gamepass
Gg Phil from death of xbox a few weeks ago to blops day 1

 

[Ozriel]

What an intensely valuable contribution to the thread. Thank you for sharing it, I think I can speak for all of Gaf when I say that we are better off for your presence.

Imagine how I felt when I realized you were serious.

Call of Duty - which happens to be fully multiplatform - is now ‘trash’ and ‘GP fodder’ because it’s being put on GamePass?

Lmao

 

[Clintizzle]

Subtracting Tango and adding generic CoD games

Just in time for my GP sub to expire next year.

Worst deal in gaming

 

[ManaByte]

Imagine how I felt when I realized you were serious.

Call of Duty - which happens to be fully multiplatform - is now ‘trash’ and ‘GP fodder’ because it’s being put on GamePass?

Lmao

The #1 selling game on PlayStation every year is trash.

It was the #1 and #2 seller in 2021 with both Cold War and Vanguard.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

The #1 selling game on PlayStation every year is trash

Yep and so is McDonalds burgers

 

[Optimus Lime]

Imagine how I felt when I realized you were serious.

Call of Duty - which happens to be fully multiplatform - is now ‘trash’ and ‘GP fodder’ because it’s being put on GamePass?

Lmao

Reading comprehension clearly isn't your strong suit, little friend. Let me be a little more clear for you.

CoD is one of the largest earners in the industry, and has been for almost 20 years.

Microsoft's decision will reduce the cost of CoD, in some quarters of the market, from that of a full priced product - to $0, as part of their subscription service.

Training people to pay $0 for their games absolutely devalues them, and creates a consumer perception that the medium is worth nothing. This is what happened to music, movies, etc.

Rather than seeing CoD as a premium product with a premium price tag, Microsoft is sacrificing that status for a sugar hit of subscriber numbers, because they have failed to beat Sony on B2P revenue. It absolutely devalues the franchise, and it will ultimately be a losing strategy, because it won't result in the subscriber conversions that they need in order for the model to be sustainable. They have exhausted the available subscriber audience, and this is an attempt to artificially broaden it.

Hope this is a bit easier for your little lizard brain to process. If you have any other questions, don't hesitate to throw up an 'lmao' - I'll assume that I'm being flagged by a 14 year old, and I'll jump in to help you in any way I can.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

I have been waiting for this.

As I said months ago, this would determine the fate of Xbox. back around Starfield release, I said, Starfield, hell blade 2, and COD will either be the Xbox platform trump card... or it will be the nail in its coffin.

Now all we gotta do is wait.

 

[twilo99]

And having the game included in GP will potentially increase the revenue, people will feel "well I didn't pay for the game, so I can get this skin and this one for 20$, that's ok". It makes COD "almost F2P".

Hmm

 

[Rippa]

Killing GamePass any day now

I’m surprised people can’t see the writing on the wall…

It won’t be GamePass getting the axe…

Its the Xbox hardware that will be getting the axe.

COD day-and-date on GamePass was always the plan.

Next, MS will ditch hardware then make moves to get GamePass on every conceivable platform.

 

[Bumblebeetuna]

I’m surprised people can’t see the writing on the wall…

It won’t be GamePass getting the axe…

Its the Xbox hardware that will be getting the axe.

COD day-and-date on GamePass was always the plan.

Next, MS will ditch hardware then make moves to get GamePass on every conceivable platform.

Why would Sony or Nintendo ever allow GamePass on their platform? Without Xbox hardware, why would MS continue with GamePass? It would have to be heavily altered and made much worse to be viable on other consoles.

 

[Rippa]

Why would Sony or Nintendo ever allow GamePass on their platform? Without Xbox hardware, why would MS continue with GamePass? It would have to be heavily altered and made much worse to be viable on other consoles.

For the same reason Ubisoft and EA games are on streaming platforms, for their exclusive games. MS is going full third-party with this news. Ditching hardware altogether.

After the “10-year” agreement to have COD on multi-platforms, MS will REQUIRE a subscription to GamePass in order to play COD.

COD exclusive to GamePass subscriptions is the Long-con for MS.

 

[Stooky]

I still don't see how this willwork in Microsofts favor. They have several obstacles to pass for this to be successful long term. Continuing subscriber growth that keep their subscription long term, steady influx of quality games and reduced Game dev budget. This will be interesting. Industry is already trending towards reduced game budgets, GTA types excluded.

 

[FlyyGOD]

I posted it above.

It's estimated.

2.5 million increase to even make any sense ie not lose a boatload of money.

5-7 million increase in subs to be decent.

11 million increase to make up for loss in revenue for CODs first month sales.

5-11 million increase is out of the question, in my opinion, considering a bunch of people with Xbox's have GamePass already.

Unless you guys own Microsoft stock I wonder why you care if a trillion dollar company takes a loss?

 

[Bumblebeetuna]

For the same reason Ubisoft and EA games are on streaming platforms, for their exclusive games. MS is going full third-party with this news. Ditching hardware altogether.

After the “10-year” agreement to have COD on multi-platforms, MS will REQUIRE a subscription to GamePass in order to play COD.

COD exclusive to GamePass subscriptions is the Long-con for MS.

Ubisoft+ isn’t on PlayStation last I checked, just Classics. EA Play doesn’t have day one games. It takes months for games to come to the service. So yeah, I’m sure MS could get GamePass on other consoles, but it would be a heavily altered and worse version of the service, otherwise Sony wouldn’t allow it.

They are never requiring GamePass for CoD

 

[Pancakes and Sausage]

If Microsoft could get gamepass working on PlayStation the new subs would be gigantic for COD.

Sony would sell significantly fewer copies though.

Is a financial agreement possible between Microsoft and Sony to get gamepass on PlayStation? 50% revenue share from PlayStation gamepass subs?

Probably not possible but Sony has different leadership and they seem intent on increasing revenue.

 

[Fredrik]

You were able to upgrade the game pass version to a “premium” edition.

Oh had no idea about that. Clever way to get some extra cash from FOMO.

 

[Kenshin775]

I think it will sell Xbox's and a bunch of GP subs but I have been wrong so many times about xbox growth so I am probably wrong again
I can see MS doing what Sony did with Spiderman 2 last year. Special edition CoD console that goes on sale in September and then ride that momentum until the end of the year.
September- Black Ops themed console
October- Early access with Game Pass at a low price
November and December- $200 Series S with Game Pass or $250 bundle with BLOPS6 for the holidays

 

[Hero of Spielberg]

Oh had no idea about that. Clever way to get some extra cash from FOMO.

Worked on me lol

 

[Methos#1975]

Imagine how I felt when I realized you were serious.

Call of Duty - which happens to be fully multiplatform - is now ‘trash’ and ‘GP fodder’ because it’s being put on GamePass?

Lmao

To be fair, it's been trash years now

 

[Fredrik]

If Microsoft could get gamepass working on PlayStation the new subs would be gigantic for COD.

Sony would sell significantly fewer copies though.

Is a financial agreement possible between Microsoft and Sony to get gamepass on PlayStation? 50% revenue share from PlayStation gamepass subs?

Probably not possible but Sony has different leadership and they seem intent on increasing revenue.

There is no agreement needed, once Xbox is dead Sony will allow Gamepass on Playstation just like the EA Play and Ubisoft+.

But I think the whole industry is going to move away from closed boxes under the TV. Within a decade we’ll have nothing but launcher and subscription platforms. And Call of Duty, Helldivers, GTA, Assassin’s Creed, Fortnite, are going to lock people in to different launchers and subscription services. Small publishers will have their games on the service that pays the most, will likely move from one to another over time.

 

[Kerotan]

I find it hard to believe MS will make up the lost sales through increased GP growth. They don't have much of a ceiling to work with. Where are these roughly 5 - 10 million extra new, sustained subs going to come from? It's not like they have a ton of Xbox consoles out there in the first place. Most people who want GP have already signed up for it. I find it hard to imagine there are 5 to 10 million Xbox owners who both love CoD and yet have not already signed up. There are PC sales, but from what I understand, that's not a big market for GP. Maybe they're banking on PC GP booming, because of CoD?

I'm no business whiz kid, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

There's literally no chance they get enough subs. The platform is dying.

 

[Ozriel]

To be fair, it's been trash years now

 

[adamsapple]

That GP sub seems to always about to run out ' just in time ' but that time never comes.

 

[Ozriel]

CoD is one of the largest earners in the industry, and has been for almost 20 years.

And will continue to be one of the largest earners in the industry. It will continue to sell gangbusters on PlayStation. It will continue to sell very well on PC. It is expected to sell well when it returns to Nintendo consoles on the Switch 2.

Microsoft's decision will reduce the cost of CoD, in some quarters of the market, from that of a full priced product - to $0, as part of their subscription service.

Training people to pay $0 for their games absolutely devalues them, and creates a consumer perception that the medium is worth nothing. This is what happened to music, movies, etc.

Your argument completely falls apart when you try to gloss over the ‘as part of their subscription service’ bit. People pay $17 per month for this. Repeatedly calling this $0 makes no sense and is completely daft.

Nobody is being ‘trained to pay $0 for their games’. You’ll see the subscription debit on your bank statement every month. When you see so much furore over Netflix price increments, do you imagine people consider it a free service?

Rather than seeing CoD as a premium product with a premium price tag, Microsoft is sacrificing that status for a sugar hit of subscriber numbers, because they have failed to beat Sony on B2P revenue. It absolutely devalues the franchise, and it will ultimately be a losing strategy, because it won't result in the subscriber conversions that they need in order for the model to be sustainable. They have exhausted the available subscriber audience, and this is an attempt to artificially broaden it.

The tech industry is filled with subscription services and this ‘devalue’ argument has never held sway. Nobody considers the Adobe ‘devalued’ because you can get all Adobe’s Creative Suite apps for $50 a month vs paying thousands for all of them. Nobody with a functional brain considers MS Office any less of a premium productivity suite because you can get it on a $9.99 subscription plan vs paying $300.

COD will continue to be seen as the premiere FPS game, especially when it’s not on GP on 2/4 platforms it’s on.

EA’s FIFA or FC games are on EA’s subscription service from day one. Same for Ubisoft’s titles on Ubisoft Premium Day one. And yet the fanbase continues to purchase the flagship games as premium products, with no sign of anything being ‘devalued’.

Work with common sense and logic here, no console warz. If MLB The Show continues to be hailed as a premium product here, despite being on GamePass, why would COD be any different?

 

[TropicanaTwista]

I find it hard to believe MS will make up the lost sales through increased GP growth. They don't have much of a ceiling to work with. Where are these roughly 5 - 10 million extra new, sustained subs going to come from? It's not like they have a ton of Xbox consoles out there in the first place. Most people who want GP have already signed up for it. I find it hard to imagine there are 5 to 10 million Xbox owners who both love CoD and yet have not already signed up. There are PC sales, but from what I understand, that's not a big market for GP. Maybe they're banking on PC GP booming, because of CoD?

I'm no business whiz kid, but it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

This is my general take. Just sunk cost fallacy 101. I just think if people were interested in the service, they would have bought it by now as gamepass is 7 years old already. I'm sure subs will increase somewhat, but I'm skeptical that those increase subs will be greater than the people who would have bought it at $70 who are already subscribed and now get it for "free".

I guess the only saving grace for MS is if this fails, they just gotta pull the plug on gamepass. If CoD isn't driving subs, literally nothing will.

 

[Ozriel]

But the main reason they're doing that multiplatform strategy...is because of too many Game Pass subscribers who get the service for cheap and don't buy many games anymore (1P or 3P), deteriorating B2P & MTX revenue on Xbox meaning less profits for MS on Xbox hardware. So basically they are trying to push a service whose existence in part helped facilitate their need to publish on rival platforms to begin with. And if they stop that multiplatform publishing strategy, they have to rely on a sea of Xbox customers who...don't really buy that many games on Xbox.

the bolded part seems to largely be made up, since there’s no indication that major games that aren’t on the service don’t have sales traction on the platform.

This is my general take. Just sunk cost fallacy 101. I just think if people were interested in the service, they would have bought it by now as gamepass is 7 years old already. I'm sure subs will increase somewhat, but I'm skeptical that those increase subs will be greater than the people who would have bought it at $70 who are already subscribed and now get it for "free".

I guess the only saving grace for MS is if this fails, they just gotta pull the plug on gamepass. If CoD isn't driving subs, literally nothing will.

The aim is to keep people on the service, consistently paying $17 per month for the next 12 months, in addition to any new subscribers they’ll get. Additional revenue from MTX and more ‘ultimate edition’ players.

Will this work? No idea, and only time will tell. But it’s a bit simplistic to imagine this is based on ‘sunk cost fallacy’.

 

[Jibran#one]

Some seriously salty guys and girls in this thread
Cod is trash
Xbox will die
Hardware will die
Subs are bad
They all are salty because they will buy the game for 70 dollars.

 

[Optimus Lime]

And will continue to be one of the largest earners in the industry. It will continue to sell gangbusters on PlayStation. It will continue to sell very well on PC. It is expected to sell well when it returns to Nintendo consoles on the Switch 2.

But will earn $0 in buy to play revenue for Microsoft. That's the point. Is there some reason why you're pretending that being able to lease a game as a part of a subscription rather than being forced to buy it at a full retail price doesn't represent an obvious decline in revenue? The point is that Microsoft hopes to cover that revenue shortfall by increasing the number of Gamepass subscribers.

Your argument completely falls apart when you try to gloss over the ‘as part of their subscription service’ bit. People pay $17 per month for this. Repeatedly calling this $0 makes no sense and is completely daft.

Nobody is being ‘trained to pay $0 for their games’. You’ll see the subscription debit on your bank statement every month. When you see so much furore over Netflix price increments, do you imagine people consider it a free service?

No, the argument doesn't 'fall apart' at all. As with music, once a product is no longer presented as having a tangible, distinct, and accepted dollar value, it ceases to have any value at all. This is what happened with music. This is what happened with movies. 'I won't buy it, I'll just wait for it to show up on Gamepass' is very much a real thing - just as 'why would anyone buy a CD anymore LOL?' is very much a real thing. Subscription media conditions consumers to accept the idea that they no longer have to pay for entertainment products, and instead receive them as part of a larger subscription library.

The problem with that is that it is no longer working, hence the problems that are being faced by Netflix, Disney+, and now, Gamepass. It is absolutely wilful ignorance to pretend that taking a product that used to require a full price purchase and giving it away as part of a subscription isn't a clear and obvious sacrifice of revenue. Again, the revenue shortfall is intended to be made up by a larger subscriber base - that is the model that Microsoft is banking on; continual growth in Gamepass subscribers.

The tech industry is filled with subscription services and this ‘devalue’ argument has never held sway. Nobody considers the Adobe ‘devalued’ because you can get all Adobe’s Creative Suite apps for $50 a month vs paying thousands for all of them. Nobody with a functional brain considers MS Office any less of a premium productivity suite because you can get it on a $9.99 subscription plan vs paying $300.

The Adobe and Office 365 services are a completely different situation. They are professional and prosumer tools which have largely cornered the market in their respective spaces. Professionals who work in design require Adobe Creative Suite. Their feelings towards Adobe's monetisation model are entirely irrelevant, since they have no choice but to do as they are told. Same with Office 365. In this situation, Gamepass does not have a monopoly on access to Call Of Duty. You can buy it on a PC. On a PS5. You can buy it on an Xbox. AND you can access it via Gamepass. Your comparison is equal parts irrelevant and dumb.

Good to see that you've evolved past posting dumb gifs and 'LMAO's though. That's progress. And, your commitment to the bit, as you insult anyone who disagrees with you in the thread, is commendable.