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NPD Sales Results for July 2014 [Up1: 3DS LTDs, Wii U LTDs, Tomodachi]

So there was something I wanted to look at now that we have PS4's numbers which are somewhat disappointing to be honest although do lead to an odd conclusion

PS4 WW sales

  • 4.2M as of 12/28/13
  • 5.3M as of 2/8/14 [+1.1M]
  • 6M as of 3/2/14 [+.7M]
  • 7M as of 4/6/14 [+1M]
  • 10M as of 8/10/14 [+3M]

Compared with PS4 US Sales in the same time period

  • January PS4 US Sales = 271k, adjusting for 2 extra weeks nets us ~406k PS4 sales in the US compared to 1100k WW thus representing a US|WW Ratio of ~37% for January-ish
  • Feburary PS4 US Sales = 268k and are of comparable timeframe to WW's 700k thus representing a US|WW Ratio of ~38.3% for February
  • March PS4 US Sales = 371k and are of comparable timeframe to WW's 1000k thus representing a US|WW Ratio of 37.1% for March
  • PS4 US sales from April 6th to August 2nd = 852k, adjusting for an extra week in August nets us ~899k in the US compared to 3000k WW thus representing a US|WW Ratio of ~30% aggregate across sales from April to early August

There seems to be a severe shift in the last 4 months of US to ROTW PS4 sales, quite a significant amount I would imagine
 
PS4 Destiny bundle is ranked higher than the two new XB1 bundles, which are a few days old. The Destiny bundle has been listed since June and has been in the top 20 most of August. Let that sink in...

I'm really confused by the Madden numbers. PS4 is #26, XB1 version and special edition are #53 and #54, PS4 special edition is #98 and the Madden XB1 bundle is nowhere to be found. Madden Xbox One bundle is all the way down at #159.

I just assumed Xbox was home for Madden and CoD. Is that not true for Madden?

So there was something I wanted to look at now that we have PS4's numbers which are somewhat disappointing to be honest although do lead to an odd conclusion

PS4 WW sales

  • 4.2M as of 12/28/13
  • 5.3M as of 2/8/14 [+1.1M]
  • 6M as of 3/2/14 [+.7M]
  • 7M as of 4/6/14 [+1M]
  • 10M as of 8/10/14 [+3M]

Compared with PS4 US Sales in the same time period

  • January PS4 US Sales = 271k, adjusting for 2 extra weeks nets us ~406k PS4 sales in the US compared to 1100k WW thus representing a US|WW Ratio of ~37% for January-ish
  • Feburary PS4 US Sales = 268k and are of comparable timeframe to WW's 700k thus representing a US|WW Ratio of ~38.3% for February
  • March PS4 US Sales = 371k and are of comparable timeframe to WW's 1000k thus representing a US|WW Ratio of 37.1% for March
  • PS4 US sales from April 6th to August 2nd = 852k, adjusting for an extra week in August nets us ~899k in the US compared to 3000k WW thus representing a US|WW Ratio of ~30% aggregate across sales from April to early August

There seems to be a severe shift in the last 4 months of US to ROTW PS4 sales, quite a significant amount I would imagine

I'm guessing it's normalization of demand in EU and elsewhere now that supply has finally met demand in all territories. US was artificially over-represented.
 

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
I'm really confused by the Madden numbers. PS4 is #26, XB1 version and special edition are #53 and #54, PS4 special edition is #98 and the Madden XB1 bundle is nowhere to be found. Madden Xbox One bundle is all the way down at #159.

I just assumed Xbox was home for Madden and CoD. Is that not true for Madden?

Depends on how many of those people from the 360 days are PS4 owners now. The PS4 version of COD Ghost had the largest sales during the launch window. I would not be surprised if Madden becomes bigger on the PS4 (larger installbase) despite the co-marketing.

Heh, okay? Never said that the PS4 isn't going to do better in the upcoming months -- I have pretty much said that it will. However, the Xbox One should still pick up as more games come out and the $400 price is going to help out with that. It would be in a worse position if it was still $500.

So you are going out on a limb and saying XB1 sales will pickup as we move from the slow summer months into the holidays? Tell me more Nostradamus!
 
Oh, I was inspired By Vita vs Wii U comment:

84e594e1e4.jpg


Timmy is Wii U because he is stuck staying the same thing as is Nintendo with same games, while Jimmy is Vita because he can speak better but stutters just like some Vita games too.
how is it a cripple fight the wii u is kicking its butt massively(not that the wii u is doing great), vita did 20k and wii u did 80k, its not really close at all
 
[*]PS4 US sales from April 6th to August 2nd = 852k, adjusting for an extra week in August nets us ~899k in the US compared to 3000k WW thus representing a US|WW Ratio of ~30% aggregate across sales from April to early August
[/LIST]

There seems to be a severe shift in the last 4 months of US to ROTW PS4 sales, quite a significant amount I would imagine
World=World confirmed.

Seriously tho, that's a more balanced split. Just shows that America is far from the only market that matters, and highlights MS's missteps that much more severely.
 

pixlexic

Banned
I just don't see it helping much with the PS4 destiny bundle right around the corner. If that game goes gangbusters (which it looks like it will). It's going to be the grab of the holiday seasons. I just think it needs better bundle or price cut if it hopes to compete.

I actually agree with this. Maybe the madden bundle will do something small but destiny is going to own the last quarter of this year.

And Sony has destiny advertising on lockdown.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
I'm really confused by the Madden numbers. PS4 is #26, XB1 version and special edition are #53 and #54, PS4 special edition is #98 and the Madden XB1 bundle is nowhere to be found. Madden Xbox One bundle is all the way down at #159.

I just assumed Xbox was home for Madden and CoD. Is that not true for Madden?

There are many Madden fans on both the Xbox and Playstation.

But yeah, I would also be a bit surprised if the bundle doesn't do that well. Madden isn't as popular as it used to be but the game still has many fans/players. Know many who are part of that group are still playing last gen systems due to Madden 25 on PS4/XB1 pretty much being a port with some changes here and there. Madden 15 will be the first true Madden made for this current gen.

So yeah, maybe it will do better and get more attention once the game releases. Can't say for sure though.

_________

So you are going out on a limb and saying XB1 sales will pickup as we move from the slow summer months into the holidays? Tell me more Nostradamus!

I can't tell if that's a reply in actual disagreement or if it's sarcasm.

But anyway, yeah there's many big games coming out soon + systems sales increase during the Holiday season months anyway.
 
Is there going to be a final list of leaked hardware numbers posted at some point to use for the predictions thread? I'm assuming the figures from the pie chart are close, but they include decimal points, while the NPD numbers are rounded (at least based on the earlier gamecrate leaks).
 
I'm guessing it's normalization of demand in EU and elsewhere now that supply has finally met demand in all territories. US was artificially over-represented.

That will certainly explain some of the affect. Otherwise I would say the additional 28 countries and regions PS4 has launched in since the 7M announcement actually made up some decent [i.e. non-insignificant] amount of it's sales in the between time

I would not have guessed such a shift previously [hence why I didn't expect a 10M announcement until September at earliest]

World=World confirmed.

Seriously tho, that's a more balanced split. Just shows that America is far from the only market that matters, and highlights MS's missteps that much more severely.

Yes I do believe we will move closer to PS's natural WW split soon

Based on LTD's, PS4 US|WW Ratio is ~38.7%, PS3's is closer to 31% or so [granted it was playing 3rd fiddle in the US]

To compare to the XB1 I will have to go back to 2013 YTD unfortunately due to lack of XB1 numbers

US|WW Ratio for PS4 based on 2013 YTD ~ 47.6%
US|WW Ratio for XB1 based on 2013 YTD ~ 60.6%

So yeah there is a significant difference in the relative importance of the US market to each console
 
how is it a cripple fight the wii u is kicking its butt massively(not that the wii u is doing great), vita did 20k and wii u did 80k, its not really close at all


Vita USA+Japan 1.9m + 3.1m = 5.0m

Wii U USA+Japan 2.68m+ 1.88m = 4.56m

:v

So Im incorrect by using WW numbers in NPD thread? Hmm

Also lol the current USA LTD difference is about 800k. Imagine if difference between X360 and PS3 was just 800k. Or PSP vs DS. Or GC vs PS2. 800k is very close.
And if someone thinks this about PS4 vs XB1 remember, PS4 is widening the gap as we speak. :p
 

S¡mon

Banned
So COD has a 49% marketshare on PS4 and PS4s install base gets bigger by the week yet Activision is still continuing its timed DLC deal? Seems like a bad business decision. At least shorten that from 1 month to 1 week. For your own good. I'm sure Microsoft would understand that they're not in any position to make any demands anymore.

Why would they? They get a large amount of cash from Microsoft and, well, PS4 gamers continue to buy Call of Duty.
 

joecanada

Member
S¡mon;125567948 said:
Why would they? They get a large amount of cash from Microsoft and, well, PS4 gamers continue to buy Call of Duty.

In addition to this, is there proof people even care? I don't know anyone who would switch consoles just to play dlc a month early
 
Also lol the current USA LTD difference is about 800k. Imagine if difference between X360 and PS3 was just 800k. Or PSP vs DS. Or GC vs PS2. 800k is very close. And if someone thinks this about PS4 vs XB1 remember, PS4 is widening the gap as we speak. :p

and Wii U isn't widening the gap over a dead Vita here either?

I'm not even sure what your point is anymore
 

EGM1966

Member
So there was something I wanted to look at now that we have PS4's numbers which are somewhat disappointing to be honest although do lead to an odd conclusion

PS4 WW sales

  • 4.2M as of 12/28/13
  • 5.3M as of 2/8/14 [+1.1M]
  • 6M as of 3/2/14 [+.7M]
  • 7M as of 4/6/14 [+1M]
  • 10M as of 8/10/14 [+3M]

Compared with PS4 US Sales in the same time period

  • January PS4 US Sales = 271k, adjusting for 2 extra weeks nets us ~406k PS4 sales in the US compared to 1100k WW thus representing a US|WW Ratio of ~37% for January-ish
  • Feburary PS4 US Sales = 268k and are of comparable timeframe to WW's 700k thus representing a US|WW Ratio of ~38.3% for February
  • March PS4 US Sales = 371k and are of comparable timeframe to WW's 1000k thus representing a US|WW Ratio of 37.1% for March
  • PS4 US sales from April 6th to August 2nd = 852k, adjusting for an extra week in August nets us ~899k in the US compared to 3000k WW thus representing a US|WW Ratio of ~30% aggregate across sales from April to early August

There seems to be a severe shift in the last 4 months of US to ROTW PS4 sales, quite a significant amount I would imagine
I think its just real WW balance emerging as supply stabilizes outside US and PS4 expands to more territories.
 
That will certainly explain some of the affect. Otherwise I would say the additional 28 countries and regions PS4 has launched in since the 7M announcement actually made up some decent [i.e. non-insignificant] amount of it's sales in the between time

I would not have guessed such a shift previously [hence why I didn't expect a 10M announcement until September at earliest]

Next question is whether US typically outperforms its normal ratio in the holiday months? I'm guessing so since US seems to be one of the most retail focused around the holidays compared to ROTW.
 

sörine

Banned
Vita USA+Japan 1.9m + 3.1m = 5.0m

Wii U USA+Japan 2.68m+ 1.88m = 4.56m

:v

So Im incorrect by using WW numbers in NPD thread? Hmm

Also lol the current USA LTD difference is about 800k. Imagine if difference between X360 and PS3 was just 800k. Or PSP vs DS. Or GC vs PS2. 800k is very close.
And if someone thinks this about PS4 vs XB1 remember, PS4 is widening the gap as we speak. :p
Vita 5m = 31 months
Wii U 4.56m = 20 months
 

Game Guru

Member
As much as I wish this would happen I just can't see it. The FireTV is failing and that has way more visibility than a Playstation TV would have. I just don't see Sony doing any marketing for this thing and so only the people who know about the Vita would know about the Playstation TV.

Wait, how do we know Fire TV is failing?
 
This right here tells you MS can win back America. XB1 figure is terribad obviously, but the PS4 one, for a leading console with the competition failing? That's an awful number.

PS4 is no Wii/PS2 juggernaut at the moment.

How in the world do you look at these numbers and come to that conclusion? PS4 is widening the gap every month and will likely have a better holiday 2014 by all indications.
 
good to see TLoU at the top, and man PS4 seems to have this generation on lock

I'm not assuming lock until the halo train hits. If PS4 can sustain MCC and Bloodbourne and The Order can fight off Halo 5 - just welp then.

How in the world do you look at these numbers and come to that conclusion? PS4 is widening the gap every month and will likely have a better holiday 2014 by all indications.

It's just bad to directly compare because PS4 met initial demand much more quickly, and the Japanese component is out the window too. I would expect demand to be fairly weak with it still having its full launch price, a still comparatively thin library, and a larger share of its initial demand already met.
 
I think its just real WW balance emerging as supply stabilizes outside US and PS4 expands to more territories.

I would concur albeit As anex suggests it will likely waiver back in US's favor somewhat during the holidays then continue to trend towards its natural share as we continue on in 2015

Next question is whether US typically outperforms its normal ratio in the holiday months? I'm guessing so since US seems to be one of the most retail focused around the holidays compared to ROTW.

I agree. Ratio will probably skew back in favor of the US if even only slightly as the holidays get underway
 
and Wii U isn't widening the gap over a dead Vita here either?

I'm not even sure what your point is anymore

Well mainly WW. In USA its pretty much gg Vita.

sörine;125568521 said:
Vita 5m = 31 months
Wii U 4.56m = 20 months

Sometimes I dont know if we should mention time of releases. X360 launched earlier than PS3 or Wii, but they still got heavily compared. As with DC, PS2, GC & XBOX. And PS1, Saturn & N64. In the end its the final sales that matter. So we can just see how it goes.
 

Dante316

Member
The key battle is definitely this holiday season. September, October, November and December sales of Ps4 vs xbox one. Ps4 hasnt run away yet in the usa. If it sells 2x or even 1.5x over the competition then it has it locked.
 
I'm not assuming lock until the halo train hits. If PS4 can sustain MCC and Bloodbourne and The Order can fight off Halo 5 - just welp then.



It's just bad to directly compare because PS4 met initial demand much more quickly, and the Japanese component is out the window too. I would expect demand to be fairly weak with it still having its full launch price, a still comparatively thin library, and a larger share of its initial demand already met.

Halo isn't as big as you think it is. If it was the first Xbox would have sold a lot better. It's also fairly obvious the WW sales is locked. Halo isn't going to change any of that.
 
I agree. Ratio will probably skew back in favor of the US if even only slightly as the holidays get underway

I just don't know what to expect. The type of gamer I am is the guy that already bought the PS4. Who's coming in this holiday? Moms and GFs buying for significant others? Honestly I wouldn't be surprised with numbers anywhere in the range of 500K to 2M for November and December.

Halo isn't as big as you think it is. If it was the first Xbox would have sold a lot better. It's also fairly obvious the WW sales is locked. Halo isn't going to change any of that.

It wasn't an established series then, so I don't see how that is comparable. Just the second game, Halo 2, set a lot of records when it came out.

And we're talking US, right? I realize XB1 is going to be weaker in every other territory.
 

Krakn3Dfx

Member
Still have seen no indication that the price of the XB1 was the problem with sales, even after a $400 version was made available. If there was a sizable reserve of Xbox diehards waiting for a price cut to pick one up, I think we would have seen some indication of that in July, big game release or not. The needle barely moved at all.

I think MS is still swimming upstream against outdated policy information, but the rest of 2014 will tell the tale either way I guess.
 
Well mainly WW. In USA its pretty much gg Vita.

well ok, seems weird to talk about WW numbers and then use NPD numbers, but whatever

Sometimes I dont know if we should mention time of releases. X360 launched earlier than PS3 or Wii, but they still got heavily compared. As with DC, PS2, GC & XBOX. And PS1, Saturn & N64. In the end its the final sales that matter. So we can just see how it goes.

I don't know if others see it this way, but as time goes on the time of the initial release matters less, due to those extra months becoming a smaller portion of the total sales.
(most notable in PS4 vs Wii U and XB1 vs Wii U in terms of current comparisons)
 
It wasn't an established series then, so I don't see how that is comparable. Just the second game, Halo 2, set a lot of records when it came out.

And we're talking US, right? I realize XB1 is going to be weaker in every other territory.

You could make the case Halo peaked at 3 and the sales numbers would agree. Just one game isn't going to make or break a system. It's a question of catalog.
 
I just don't know what to expect. The type of gamer I am is the guy that already bought the PS4. Who's coming in this holiday? Moms and GFs buying for significant others? Honestly I wouldn't be surprised with numbers anywhere in the range of 500K to 2M for November and December.

Hmm perhaps this will be a disappointing holiday season. It's always possible. I'm hopeful though that it can at least mimic PS3 holiday sales where Nov. + Dec. represent at least 40 - 45% of YTD
 

sörine

Banned
Sometimes I dont know if we should mention time of releases. X360 launched earlier than PS3 or Wii, but they still got heavily compared. As with DC, PS2, GC & XBOX. And PS1, Saturn & N64. In the end its the final sales that matter. So we can just see how it goes.
The further out we get from launch, the less launch aligning matters really. In the early goings people were definitely doing launch aligned comparisons though, especially for PS3 vs 360.

It won't matter too much anyway though, Wii U will be ahead of Vita JP+US after the holidays.
 

vpance

Member
The situation WW is a lock. US is a bit more fluid but after this holiday season it will be decided, which should probably lie in Sony's favor by a fair margin with Destiny and GTA V tie ins. MS knows this which is why they're scrambling to try and slow down the freight train with deals like the exclusive items in Witcher 3 Collectors edition. Because from Fall to Spring PS4 should have some pretty big momentum.
 

heidern

Junior Member
Mario Kart effect is fading now, seems like it's enough to get Wii U off life support but, I don't how to put this, but basically it's lifted it one tier and not enough to lift it two tiers. The good news is it did lift it(proving games can improve Wii U sales) and with a better software lineup from September onwards and through next year(and a price cut probably) it should be able to maintain or perhaps even increase one more tier but that won't be enough to get it past Gamecube. The only possibility I see for significant shifts is if Amiibo becomes a Christmas craze, games will only have modest effects(I don't see anything spectacular in the release list).

PS4 and X1 down. Likely culprit being Watchdogs effect fading and the X1 fell further perhaps because of the new SKU effect fading. Again we can see that Watchdogs like Mario Kart didn't manage to spark serious console adoption(which Titanfall failed to do earlier in the year for X1). Next bet is Destiny I guess, then Assassins Creed/COD at the end of the year. Maybe Madden will have an impact in August too. But I don't know if the latter and the likes Driveclub/Sunset Overdrive can have an impact where Titanfall/Watchdogs didn't.

The decline doesn't seem too bad though and they seem to be finding a baseline. Given the release list is going to improve from August I don't think it likely for further precipitous declines for them and price cuts next year should help sales, perhaps significantly.

PS4 was at 1.57M YTD at June, half way through the year. It'll probably get to around 2.2M through September and around 4-4.5M for the yearly total? It'll need to get that up towards 6M+ annually in 2015 and 2016.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
How in the world do you look at these numbers and come to that conclusion? PS4 is widening the gap every month and will likely have a better holiday 2014 by all indications.

I think what he's saying is that in America, the PS4 isn't crushing the competition like the PS2 and Wii did.

Still possible for the Xbox One to be #1 in America but it's going to take years and many major games for it to happen. Gap between Xbox One and PS4 right now is around 700K. Smaller US hill to climb than what previous consoles in the #2 (or #3) spot had to face.

_________

The situation WW is a lock.

It was pretty much a lock many months before the systems released. PS4 would have done better even if the Xbox One didn't have a bad pre-launch period. Playstation's the more popular gaming brand. Xbox would have need another one-year head start to be anywhere close IMO.
 
well ok, seems weird to talk about WW numbers and then use NPD numbers, but whatever

Well one other user said that Wii U was kicking Vitas butt, but that was only happening in USA. The same user was questioning my mention of Vita vs Wii U being any fight at all, despite Vita currently winning Wii U. I figured I'd look at USA only sales. So I just mentioned that technically difference of 800k isnt a lot. Its only a lot because both Wii U and Vita sell like shit.
 
One other thing I wanted to mention: XB1 sales

So I did this previously before NPD came out in the predictions thread but given that May NPD had a tracking period from May 4th to 31st and the new XB1 SKU was announced May 13th to be available June 9th then June sales indicated the following

XB1 June Sales = 197,000 [over 5 weeks] [~55% Kinectless SKU]

So 108,500 KL | 88,500 Other

Thus since consumers interested in the kinectless SKU included collecting consumers from those 2 weeks or so in May then

Actual Weekly Demand for KL in June = 108.5k/(5+2) = 15.5k a week
Weekly Demand for other in June = 88.5k/5 = 17.7k a week

Actual XB1 Demand in June = 33.2k

Projecting July sales = 4*33.2k ~ 133k [or off by ~2k]

Now granted PS4 had a weekly drop that was not insignificant so perhaps the XB1 has actually improved it's standing but it looks to me that the base demand for XB1 in the summer months is close to 33k a week
 
Bloodborne and The Order won't be competing against Halo 5. That will be Uncharted 4 and probably another game or two that have even been revealed yet.

Sony mentioned that Bloodborne will release within 6 months so we are looking at February the latest. The Halo 5 Beta starts on 12/29 and runs through 1/17 so people will have a choice of getting the XB1 for the beta or going with Bloodborne. Microsoft was smart to put the beta at the end of the holiday season to entice people to buy the console 8 months earlier then they would have. So Halo 5 is a factor.
 

vpance

Member
It was pretty much a lock many months before the systems released. PS4 would have done better even if the Xbox One didn't have a bad pre-launch period. Playstation's the more popular gaming brand. Xbox would have need another one-year head start to be anywhere close IMO.

You wouldn't think it though, reading these boards at that time. Vgleaks hardware info gave us a bit of a clue but not the full picture to predict anything worthwhile. There was an outside chance for Xbox, pre May reveal. But once that was unleashed it was decided. And $499 @ E3 was all she wrote.
 
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