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Nintendo Q2 FY23/24 Earnings Report: Hardware 2.93M LTD 132.46M. Pikmin 4 at 2.61M

Closing in on 140 million consoles sold, with no price drops, and almost all of their 50+ platinum selling software titles being first party. Absolutely tits-on-butts bonkers
It is. Still time for new hardware, with the YoY declines and even moreso next year, due to saturation. But yeah, Switch generation has been ridiculously profitable for Nintendo. And good news for us, all on the back of great games.
 

THE DUCK

voted poster of the decade by bots
There corrected that for you...
The funniest thing about the "it's a handheld" crowd is their inability to grasp that it's the SWITCH between home console and handheld that makes the USP. (See what I did there?)



How many Nintendo or MS fans angry at the PS2's success kept claiming "it's just a DVD player " I wonder?

Doesn't change a thing I said or negate anything, if it's just a home console it fails spectacularly. Agreed it's the handheld nature fo the product combined with the ability to hook it to a TV at times that made it unique and still doesn't change the fact that it has zero competition in that hybrid space.
 

Kataploom

Gold Member
Nintendo is and always will be a first party machine
For most of us here in GAF? I agree, but I know some friends and even my wife that use it as primary gaming device. They don't care about any other console, all their first parties, indies and specially chill/farming/rpg games are on it, there are also large communities based on those types of games, Just Dance is BIG and will never die it seems, etc. There's just so much from the Switch for many audiences outside GAF average user. I have a PC for everything but Nintendo games so I don't get the appeal at that level but yeah, that's my experience so far... Switch is the "de-facto" console for lots of people and they don't even care about PC, PS5 or Xbox at all... And I'm talking about communities with Youtubers that amass 100k+ subs
 

Woopah

Member
Nintendo are very conservative, 15 million hardware and 185 million software is lowballing. I think 16.5 million hardware and 205 million software is more realistic.
15 million didn't look conservative when they first announced it, but now it looks very attainable
Nintendo is and always will be a first party machine
First party is definitely essential to Switch success, but more than half of games sold on it are third party. So they are also essential.
 

Fake

Member
Haven't seen it posted so here's the Pokemon LTD sales.

VdjtBa3.png

Shield and Sword are so shit to be that high god have mercy.
 

Astral Dog

Member
  • Astral Chain: 1.33m
  • Bayonetta: 1.24m
  • Bayonetta 2: 1.23m
  • Metroid Prime Remastered: 1.09m
  • Bayonetta 3: 1.07m

Cut the prices on some of your games Nintendo, for fucks sake!
I disagree, all these games are good af and deserve to be sold at decent prices, because Nintendo wouldn't invest as much on them otherwise,they know what they are doing when its about selling videogames

for example , i seen the Bayonetta 1 physical version,and Bayonetta 2 randomly bounce back on Amazon
top selling Switch games at $50+

Its actually selling at $50 or more ,keep in mind its a simple port of a 2009 niche game, no fancy enchantments

Nintendo only drops the prices of their games if its a disaster like Metroid Other M or a failed system like Wii U
 
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Kataploom

Gold Member
Shield and Sword are so shit to be that high god have mercy.
Well, tbf it sold a lot due to preorders, people don't care about graphics enough to skip it, but if you put graphics + bugs + performance issues... Many players found a WAY worse software quality than they thought it could be, so I think it will hurt future entries sales unless they fix their shit and gain consumers trust back
 

Fake

Member
Well, tbf it sold a lot due to preorders, people don't care about graphics enough to skip it, but if you put graphics + bugs + performance issues... Many players found a WAY worse software quality than they thought it could be, so I think it will hurt future entries sales unless they fix their shit and gain consumers trust back

I have the game lmao. Is one of the worst of the series. Performance and bugs are the least of this game problems. The inconsistence of this game is beyond any other game I have played.

The numbers just tell that Pokemon will sell no matter what.
 

Robb

Gold Member
they know what they are doing when its about selling videogames
Yeah, I’m not really sure price is the issue for these titles, it’s likely more about the genre/type of game. The original Bayonetta on PS3/360 sold about 2M(?) despite the fact that the price plummeted fairly quickly.
 

Kataploom

Gold Member
I disagree, all these games are good af and deserve to be sold at decent prices, because Nintendo wouldn't invest as much on them otherwise,they know what they are doing when its about selling videogames

for example , i seen the Bayonetta 1 physical version,and Bayonetta 2 randomly bounce back on Amazon
top selling Switch games at $50+

Its actually selling at $50 or more ,keep in mind its a simple port of a 2009 niche game, no fancy enchantments

Nintendo only drops the prices of their games if its a disaster like Metroid Other M or a failed system like Wii U
Let's say Astral Chain cost was around $20 Million and it sold 1.33M copies.

It brought around $79.8M being sold at $60, there hasn't been many sales so let's say in average it brought $66.5M selling at $50 in average.

As it's a first party, game Nintendo get 100% of profit if sold from their eShop, and has to pay 30% to physical retailers, let's split that cost and say in average they only paid 15% leaving them $56.5M.

That would be around $36.5M in profits for a lower selling game in these taken out of my ass math and we know it most probably costed less than $20M to be made.

Not so bad IMO, specially if they're not putting their own HR on it, so selling at full price or near full price is actually a good strategy for them.

I have the game lmao. Is one of the worst of the series. Performance and bugs are the least of this game problems. The inconsistence of this game is beyond any other game I have played.

The numbers just tell that Pokemon will sell no matter what.
General consensus seem to be the actual opposite, like it being one of the best Pokemon games ever released, even some mention the story as "great". The 3 routes and open world approach seemed to work well... And I see core gamers mention "it's a shame it's an actual great game despite its performance/bugs/graphics".

Haven't played it myself, wife did and because of that I've been seeing reviews or other youtubers using these games as example for different subjects.
 

Fake

Member
General consensus seem to be the actual opposite, like it being one of the best Pokemon games ever released, even some mention the story as "great". The 3 routes and open world approach seemed to work well... And I see core gamers mention "it's a shame it's an actual great game despite its performance/bugs/graphics".

Haven't played it myself, wife did and because of that I've been seeing reviews or other youtubers using these games as example for different subjects.

And were is exactly this 'general consensus' you speak of? Is he right here in this room or something? I hope you aren't taking Smogon forum as a concept to anything.

Scarlet/Violet will eventually beat Sword/Shield and thats don't mean shit dude. Pokemon games sell.
 
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Woopah

Member
Without any sale promotions.

A yoy drop of 10% for a 7 year console seems kinda healthy.

Also really great Pikmin 4 result. Game is really underrated this year, should be in the running for GOTY imo (instead of Wonder).

It is strange they didn't say anything on Wonder sales so far.
I preferred Pikmin to Wonder as well (not that Wonder was bad).

This report goes until the end of September, so Wonder came out too late.
So for the first 2 quarters combined hardware is up 2%.

But per the forecast they are expecting hardware to be down 28% in the last 2 quarters.

Seems they have very little confidence in their holiday sales potential this year.
The Zelda OLED had a huge impact on Q1, and I don't think the Mario OLED will be quite as impactful.

They'll probably still hit the target though.
I think it's normal to get a HW and SW decline because Switch is in the sunseting stage of its lifecycle. It also would have happened in Q1 if it wasn't because of the super success of Zelda TotK.

Which btw surprises me to see it didn't sell over 1M this quarter. Seems that unlike other Nintendo top selling games it won't have a long tail with great sales.
There were still around 3 million copies of TOTK on shelves at the end of Q1 so it was overshipped

I do expect it to be less leggy than BOTW though.
 
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Kataploom

Gold Member
And were is exactly this 'general consensus' you speak of? Is he right here in this room or something? I hope you aren't taking Smogon forum as a concept to anything.

Scarlet/Violet will eventually beat Sword/Shield and thats don't mean shit dude. Pokemon games sell.
Oops, I confused S&S with S&V, my bad... Damn there are so many of them it confuses me lmao
 

Marvel14

Banned
Doesn't change a thing I said or negate anything, if it's just a home console it fails spectacularly. Agreed it's the handheld nature fo the product combined with the ability to hook it to a TV at times that made it unique and still doesn't change the fact that it has zero competition in that hybrid space.
Soo close..you almost admitted it's a home console too...as opposed to just a handheld you can connect to the tv.

You must hate people like me who use it "at times" 90% of the time as a home console. We're almost as many as those who use it mostly as a handheld.

We're bastards that way.
 

yurinka

Member
There were still around 3 million copies of TOTK on shelves at the end of Q1 so it was overshipped
Interesting and surprising. But well, it may end selling around 20-25M, which still is stunning for any game and particularly for a Zelda game.
 
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Woopah

Member
Interesting and surprising. But well, it may end selling around 20-25M, which still is stunning for any game and particularly for a Zelda game.
I would guess the first week sales took them by surprise so they overcorrected and shipped too much.
1.13 billion pieces of software.

Madden sales: 0

Call of Duty sales: 0
Would be even bigger if they included things like Among Us, Vampire Survivors, and all those games with 90% off sales.
 

THE DUCK

voted poster of the decade by bots
Soo close..you almost admitted it's a home console too...as opposed to just a handheld you can connect to the tv.

You must hate people like me who use it "at times" 90% of the time as a home console. We're almost as many as those who use it mostly as a handheld.

We're bastards that way.

You can hold on to that as much as you want, doesn't change the facts that a large part of the reason it sold so well was its portability.
Even as it was launching, this was the push by Nintendo themselves and how it was seen by the press:


As a dual purpose the value proposition appeared higher, even if mostly used in handheld mode.

I'm confused as to why you are so defensive, does the lack of competition and resulting sales success somehow make Nintendo games less fun to play and the machine somehow worse?
 

Marvel14

Banned
You can hold on to that as much as you want, doesn't change the facts that a large part of the reason it sold so well was its portability.
Even as it was launching, this was the push by Nintendo themselves and how it was seen by the press:


As a dual purpose the value proposition appeared higher, even if mostly used in handheld mode.

I'm confused as to why you are so defensive, does the lack of competition and resulting sales success somehow make Nintendo games less fun to play and the machine somehow worse?
It's the fact that you can't accept that it's a Hybrid console with both home and handheld form factors. That it's USP is that it can Switch seamlessly from one to the other.

I've been arguing with your ilk for years, every time we reach another sales milestone we get a predictable "well its a handheld without competition " response.

Really the question is: why can't you accept that it's also a home console? Why are you so defensive every time that there is a success story about it that it prompts you to insist it's just a handheld when everything about it screams Hybrid?
 
Extra sales numbers of some games as of June 2023:



I don't know how Pierre485 got access to these numbers and it has not been confirmed if they are official yet but here they are anyway. Remember they are as of June 2023 so the July to September quarter was not included.
  • Pokémon Legends: Arceus - 15.00m (+170k since March 2023)
  • Splatoon 3 - 11.02m (+350k since March 2023)
  • Kirby and the Forgotten Land - 6.70m (+240k since March 2023)
  • The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 6.63m (+170k since December 2022)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 2.74m (+40k since December 2022)
  • Mario Strikers: Battle League - 2.63m (+90k since March 2023)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 1.91m (+30k since December 2022)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 3 - 1.91m (+50k since March 2023)
  • Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe - 1.82m (+360k since March 2023)
  • Fire Emblem Engage - 1.68m (+70k since March 2023)
  • Metroid Prime Remastered - 1.36m (+270k since March 2023)
  • Bayonetta 3 - 1.09m (+20k since March 2023)
Edit: These numbers have been confirmed as legit over at InstallBase so i will make adjustsments to the million sellers list in the OP.
 
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Mozza

Member
Soo close..you almost admitted it's a home console too...as opposed to just a handheld you can connect to the tv.

You must hate people like me who use it "at times" 90% of the time as a home console. We're almost as many as those who use it mostly as a handheld.

We're bastards that way.

Extra sales numbers of some games as of June 2023:



I don't know how Pierre485 got access to these numbers and it has not been confirmed if they are official yet but here they are anyway. Remember they are as of June 2023 so the July to September quarter was not included.
  • Pokémon Legends: Arceus - 15.00m (+170k since March 2023)
  • Splatoon 3 - 11.02m (+350k since March 2023)
  • Kirby and the Forgotten Land - 6.70m (+240k since March 2023)
  • The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 6.63m (+170k since December 2022)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 2.74m (+40k since December 2022)
  • Mario Strikers: Battle League - 2.63m (+90k since March 2023)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 1.91m (+30k since December 2022)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 3 - 1.91m (+50k since March 2023)
  • Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe - 1.82m (+360k since March 2023)
  • Fire Emblem Engage - 1.68m (+70k since March 2023)
  • Metroid Prime Remastered - 1.36m (+270k since March 2023)
  • Bayonetta 3 - 1.09m (+20k since March 2023)

The Switch is just insane, and can't be measured by traditional console lifecycle sales, I remember calling this on the "Do you think the Switch will be a success" thread, now sadly closed. ;)
 

Astral Dog

Member
Extra sales numbers of some games as of June 2023:



I don't know how Pierre485 got access to these numbers and it has not been confirmed if they are official yet but here they are anyway. Remember they are as of June 2023 so the July to September quarter was not included.
  • Pokémon Legends: Arceus - 15.00m (+170k since March 2023)
  • Splatoon 3 - 11.02m (+350k since March 2023)
  • Kirby and the Forgotten Land - 6.70m (+240k since March 2023)
  • The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 6.63m (+170k since December 2022)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 2.74m (+40k since December 2022)
  • Mario Strikers: Battle League - 2.63m (+90k since March 2023)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 1.91m (+30k since December 2022)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 3 - 1.91m (+50k since March 2023)
  • Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe - 1.82m (+360k since March 2023)
  • Fire Emblem Engage - 1.68m (+70k since March 2023)
  • Metroid Prime Remastered - 1.36m (+270k since March 2023)
  • Bayonetta 3 - 1.09m (+20k since March 2023)

Its a disgrace that FE Engage didn't broke 2 million, its a very good game but im not sure about these numbers,not 100% confirmed
 

blacktout

Member
Still 20mn to go... Not sure if Switch can make it. Especially with a new console coming next year. Fingers crossed though, would love to see it surpass PS2!

I think it's going to be close. If the Switch successor really does launch next fall, the Switch will probably be somewhere between 140 and 145 million units at that point. The question is whether it can sell the remaining 10-15 million in the two years or so that Nintendo will probably keep it on the market after that. It's not impossible, given that it's going to end up selling over 15 million this FY.
 
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THE DUCK

voted poster of the decade by bots
It's the fact that you can't accept that it's a Hybrid console with both home and handheld form factors. That it's USP is that it can Switch seamlessly from one to the other.

I've been arguing with your ilk for years, every time we reach another sales milestone we get a predictable "well its a handheld without competition " response.

Really the question is: why can't you accept that it's also a home console? Why are you so defensive every time that there is a success story about it that it prompts you to insist it's just a handheld when everything about it screams Hybrid?

I can accept it's a hybrid just fine, that means accepting both of it's form factors and benefits. So now that we both agree it's a hybrid, name one other hybrid in the past 7 years that has been released by any of the other big gaming companies with exclusive software content.
Oh, there is none. Maybe the reason the point about it not having any competition in it's space is becuase there was none. Apples to apples, no competition direct existed for switch (and still doesn't). It's a large part of it's success. It's ok though, it's still great.
Was playing mario last night on the switch OLED, was fun!
 
Extra sales numbers of some games as of June 2023:



I don't know how Pierre485 got access to these numbers and it has not been confirmed if they are official yet but here they are anyway. Remember they are as of June 2023 so the July to September quarter was not included.
  • Pokémon Legends: Arceus - 15.00m (+170k since March 2023)
  • Splatoon 3 - 11.02m (+350k since March 2023)
  • Kirby and the Forgotten Land - 6.70m (+240k since March 2023)
  • The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 6.63m (+170k since December 2022)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 2.74m (+40k since December 2022)
  • Mario Strikers: Battle League - 2.63m (+90k since March 2023)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 1.91m (+30k since December 2022)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 3 - 1.91m (+50k since March 2023)
  • Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe - 1.82m (+360k since March 2023)
  • Fire Emblem Engage - 1.68m (+70k since March 2023)
  • Metroid Prime Remastered - 1.36m (+270k since March 2023)
  • Bayonetta 3 - 1.09m (+20k since March 2023)

Nintendo casually having 20 first-party games which are 10 million sellers LMAO
 

Neff

Member
Yep, so Nintendo can reach those numbers if they maybe keep the Switch Lite going for a few years and give it a massive price cut. But not sure if that would be worth it for them.

Totally would and will 100% happen.

The Switch is just insane, and can't be measured by traditional console lifecycle sales

Exactly. We've never before had gaming hardware which seamlessly and instantly goes from being a handheld to a console, with a simple human action, out of the box. Hard comparisons with either market are misleading. We'll continue to endure the cope and excuses for a while yet though, especially as it starts to creep up on PS2.
 
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MirageMew2

Member
Extra sales numbers of some games as of June 2023:



I don't know how Pierre485 got access to these numbers and it has not been confirmed if they are official yet but here they are anyway. Remember they are as of June 2023 so the July to September quarter was not included.
  • Pokémon Legends: Arceus - 15.00m (+170k since March 2023)
  • Splatoon 3 - 11.02m (+350k since March 2023)
  • Kirby and the Forgotten Land - 6.70m (+240k since March 2023)
  • The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 6.63m (+170k since December 2022)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 2.74m (+40k since December 2022)
  • Mario Strikers: Battle League - 2.63m (+90k since March 2023)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 1.91m (+30k since December 2022)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 3 - 1.91m (+50k since March 2023)
  • Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe - 1.82m (+360k since March 2023)
  • Fire Emblem Engage - 1.68m (+70k since March 2023)
  • Metroid Prime Remastered - 1.36m (+270k since March 2023)
  • Bayonetta 3 - 1.09m (+20k since March 2023)

That 60k difference between BDSP and Legends Arceus is triggering, likewise that Sword and Shield ultimately became second to Red/Blue
 

Dodo123

Member
I think it's going to be close. If the Switch successor really does launch next fall, the Switch will probably be somewhere between 140 and 145 million units at that point. The question is whether it can sell the remaining 10-15 million in the two years or so that Nintendo will probably keep it on the market after that. It's not impossible, given that it's going to end up selling over 15 million this FY.
Thanks for the answer
Yeah, lets see what happens, but still I have strong doubts. PS2 was pushed in emerging markets, so I concider Sony to be a more globally oriented company, which of couse is easier to do with all the different electronics they used to sell. Nintendo, on the other hand, doesnt have other businesses and is generally focused on only the biggest, developed markets, which are naturally already pretty saturated.
 

Kataploom

Gold Member
I can accept it's a hybrid just fine, that means accepting both of it's form factors and benefits. So now that we both agree it's a hybrid, name one other hybrid in the past 7 years that has been released by any of the other big gaming companies with exclusive software content.
Oh, there is none. Maybe the reason the point about it not having any competition in it's space is becuase there was none. Apples to apples, no competition direct existed for switch (and still doesn't). It's a large part of it's success. It's ok though, it's still great.
Was playing mario last night on the switch OLED, was fun!
I still don't get why are dedicated gaming devices segmented that way for some people... NDS was competing with PS3, Switch is competing with PS5, etc. In the end all the matters is a person wants to play games and there are options in the market depending on their preferences. Hell, specially these days that weird distinction makes less sense since handheld gaming devices literally play same games as home consoles
 

THE DUCK

voted poster of the decade by bots
I still don't get why are dedicated gaming devices segmented that way for some people... NDS was competing with PS3, Switch is competing with PS5, etc. In the end all the matters is a person wants to play games and there are options in the market depending on their preferences. Hell, specially these days that weird distinction makes less sense since handheld gaming devices literally play same games as home consoles

If you need to play a game on a trip, on the road, or in the bathroom, you aren't reaching for a ps5. Your reaching for a portable game machine. Your options from the "big three" as of today who actually have exclusive AAA games is Nintendo........that's it.

Sure there's crossover from.all forms of entertainment, phones, movies, TV shows, etc, but all consoles face that.
 
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Here are some highlights

- Net sales up 21.2% and Net profit up 17.7% year over year (Q1+Q2)
- Net sales forecast to be 9% up and Net profit 23.5% up year over year for the entire fiscal year
- Software forecast increased to 185 million
- Nintendo want to bring more exposure to all of their characters
- Nintendo pleased with the growth of the Mario series
- Super Mario Bro's Wonder sold through 4.3 million after 2 weeks
- Pikmin 4 sold through 2.5 million
- Switch hardware has sold through over 130 million
- First party software sell-through is the second highest so far this fiscal year
- Zelda TotK sold through 17.6 million up from 15.7 million the previous quarter (1.9million sold through in Q2 versus only 0.99 million shipped).
-Twilight princess sold 7.50 million on Wii (previous report was 7.26 million over a decade ago)
- Nintendo pleased with the growth of the Zelda series
- Nintendo pleased with the incredible legs of their 1st party software
- Nintendo Pleased that Animal Crossing and Kirby sales are not so reliant on Japan anymore because they sell very well overseas.
- Kirby and the Forgotten land has now sold 6.96 million.
- Subscribers to Nintendo Switch online reach over 38 million
- Annual active users reach 117 million

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Robb

Gold Member
Not a like for like comparison. It should be 3DS + Wii U Vs Switch which is still a favourable result for switch before anyone starts crying.
I don’t think it matters much anyway.

I’m pretty sure Nintendo has already surpassed the previously recorded record profits they made during the Wii/DS days (which sold 256M units combined) with the Switch.

So it could pretty much stop selling right now and still be their most successful generation ever I guess.
 
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The fact that Nintendo don't need big 3rd party support and can reach numbers like this with only their own stuff is crazy. Combining handheld and home console was a genius move.
 

Marvel14

Banned
I can accept it's a hybrid just fine, that means accepting both of it's form factors and benefits. So now that we both agree it's a hybrid, name one other hybrid in the past 7 years that has been released by any of the other big gaming companies with exclusive software content.
Oh, there is none. Maybe the reason the point about it not having any competition in it's space is becuase there was none. Apples to apples, no competition direct existed for switch (and still doesn't). It's a large part of it's success. It's ok though, it's still great.
Was playing mario last night on the switch OLED, was fun!
Be honest. In your mind when you type hybrid in your mind you're thinking "handheld" arent you?. Go on admit it!

Switch has plenty of competition. Traditional consoles, PC, mobile games, handhelds (including those you can plug into a tv). Having a USP that no one has directly replicated doesn't mean you don't have competition.

Wii U was the only console with a second handheld screen that interacted with the main screen. Did it not have competition? Why did it only sell 13 million?
 
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Kerotan

Member
I don’t think it matters much anyway.

I’m pretty sure Nintendo has already surpassed the previously recorded record profits they made during the Wii/DS days (which sold 256M units combined) with the Switch.

So it could pretty much stop selling right now and still be their most successful generation ever I guess.
Exactly.
 
Amazing rebound.
8K4Bpgu.jpg

That's super misleading.

I wouldn't compare the Switch purely to the Wii U. You have to consider that they merged their console and handheld businesses.

It's still definitely a comeback given the 3DS performed significantly worse than the DS. But if you look at where Nintendo was with the DS and Wii... I wouldn't say tat they've definitely improved.

I think software is selling better than ever but hardware isn't. I think across the board that is the case.
 

NeoIkaruGAF

Gold Member
Extra sales numbers of some games as of June 2023:


Animal Crossing is insane. Crazy.

Ring Fit Adventure did incredibly well for the kind of software it is.

But, Nintendo painted themselves in a corner with Mario Kart and Smash. I can’t see a new game in either series doing remotely that well for a long, long time. They really gave it all with both games.

I don’t see the credibility of pie charts ever recovering after MK8, either.
 

Hardensoul

Member
I think it’ll cap at 140 something.

Legendary run.
Nintendo usually stop production of old hardware once the new successor is released. It all depends on how many Switch they manufacture before pulling the plug. Manufacturing line may not be able to support both Switch/Switch2 at same time.

140m would be too low, remember there is still this holiday left and then how much more Switch they expect to sell next year.

My guess is around 10-15m more to produce before end of life.
 
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