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If SEGA never faltered, where would they be today?
- Thread starter jax
- Start date
Ignore my avatar for a moment. I would happily make this trade.
Also, if we got the same amount of classic Sega games from MS as we do Rare... it'd still be better than our current timeline.
The company that get most software support is the one who usually win the biggest share in the market.
Microsoft adopted the same business model as Sony but it was in a far weaker position as far as software support went.
This changed with the following generation.
Soapbox Killer
Grand Nagus
If there was a DVD player in the Dreamcast, the XboX would not have succeeded.
I would have already killed Lan Di. Played Powerstone Vs Burning Rangers. Talked about how Skies of Arcadia 3 was the best in the series and they should have killed Vyse and not his son in the 2nd game.
I would have already killed Lan Di. Played Powerstone Vs Burning Rangers. Talked about how Skies of Arcadia 3 was the best in the series and they should have killed Vyse and not his son in the 2nd game.
A) I'm saying Sega and Nintendo had every notable third-party that the PS1 had. A couple took sides (such as Square), but Sony only took the developer support away from Sega/Nintendo, they weren't attracting any new of note. The Saturn would have had Tomb Raider, Resident Evil, etc.. and with any success it would have had stuff like Metal Gear Solid as well. These aren't studios Sony brought to the game. They were studios that left the two companies that fucked up (either by being weak as shit, or late with crap storage).
B) Kinda like the even bigger MS did with the OG Xbox? Sega lost (significantly) more on the Saturn hardware than Sony did on the PS1, they just also didn't have the success required to make it back with software. Distribution I'll give you (which also rolls in point C).. however that effect is directly tied to their ability to succeed in the primary markets also. Plenty of the other attempted entrants had advantages in terms of global distribution. The market was "always" going to grow that generation, the games that became possible ensured it.
D) Sega's software output would have been much the same yes (kinda like Nintendo's has been much the same since the NES through to today)... but unlike what actually happened, Sega wouldn't have been attempting to essentially carry the console themselves. The PlayStation consoles sold primarily on the back of games created by other companies, not Sony themselves. Contrast something like the Master System with the Genesis... one is similar to the situation the Dreamcast was in, the other is similar to the situation the Dreamcast would have been in. It's a completely different scenario.
A) With software support I mean the actual games both in term of quantity and quality of the ports (which at the time were handled by different teams).
I do remember well the difference in third-party support between PS1 and Saturn in the first few years the Saturn was still in the race.
Just to cite the total number of releases in the japanese market for each console (because I have the data under hand):
PS1: 4456
Saturn: 1169
N64: 224
3DO: 214
PC-FX: 64
Jaguar: 12
C) Of course the mature markets (Japan, North America) were going to grow anyway because kids were growing up while other younger would gradually join the fry.
What I'm tell you (see data above) is that the big chunk of the growth the console industry experienced that generation wasn't due to demographic but to regional(s) expansion (Europe and other countries).
D) I don't see Sega employing a different business model between Master System and Genesis (the only noticeable difference is that Sega handled the distribution of Genesis in North America while for Master System they licensed the console to Tonka).
The latter was much more successful therefore attracted more third-party support but in both cases it was Sega with its software who was leading the console spreading.
The state of the arcade industry and its decline throughout the 90's usually seems to be forgotten and is a really understated factor in how it affected Sega as well. No matter how their console ventures performed throughout the 80's and early 90's, their arcade division was always a very reliable source of revenue, and I don't think they fully counted on there being such a sudden and steep decline there.
ThatStupidLion
Member
they would have gone mobile or 3rd party in he long run i think.
Arcade business income remained overall acceptable and in the black throughout the '90s, console business (consumer business) on the other hand was a money pit.
More frightening for Sega was that arcade games were beginning to lose relevance in the console industry (there were still hits like Crazy Taxi but the overall influence began to wane).
(data taken from a japanese financial site)
Okawa dreamt for Sega to become a service provider for other hardware like PC.
My whole point about software libraries, support etc, is that Sega screwing up is what made the difference there. Sega's approach didn't change much between Master System and Genesis, but the market realities (Nintendo getting dragged legally, lol) caused the Genesis to be far, far better supported than the Master System which changed all sorts of variables for its success. So I'm arguing that a Saturn released by a Sega that's not fucking everything up (stealth-launched, weak, expensive, coming after CD and 32X, etc) wouldn't have had 1169 titles. It would have had the vast, vast majority of titles that the PlayStation received. The Saturn's lack of success gave the PlayStation a shitton of defacto exclusives... and much like with the Xbox 360, many of those would not have been, had the alternative actually been viable in the market (and then again with this gen, they're gaining many defacto exclusives for the same reason). Sony didn't create these games, they didn't create the studios that created these games, and these studio created games for Sega and/or Nintendo before. There's no reason to assume the PlayStation gets these games as exclusives without Sega basically throwing them all at them,
EDIT: Also, in regards to sales outside of primary markets... let's not underestimate how much the move to easily reproducible media had an effect on many of these markets.
Mega CD was alright.
32X stretched the software support too thin. They should've skipped that. And I say that as someone who loves Virtua Racing Deluxe and Motherbase.
Even if they did everything as they did up to the 32X though, they should have never made the Saturn without 3D in mind because the last minute redesign made the machine too hard to code for, at least for most developers out there. More importantly, it made the machine too damn expensive.
32X stretched the software support too thin. They should've skipped that. And I say that as someone who loves Virtua Racing Deluxe and Motherbase.
Even if they did everything as they did up to the 32X though, they should have never made the Saturn without 3D in mind because the last minute redesign made the machine too hard to code for, at least for most developers out there. More importantly, it made the machine too damn expensive.
PdotMichael
Banned
This is wrong.
Sony's business model and the introduction of the CD format made the console ecosystem profitable for many devs and publishers. European dev scene is a prime example in this regard.
The amount of released games increased dramatically compared to the previous gen because it was often cheaper and less risky to make a PSX game than a SNES game with all the Nintendo business antics (several months lead times for cartridges, silly minimum payment clause and the high capacity modules were exclusive to Nintendo and the few important third party publishers).
depends on a lot of things
-do you want to give them a bunch of money so they can make a succesor to the dreamcast? that could go well, given how the early bird status of the 360 helped it a lot. but it could be the dreamcast all over again, with people waiting on the successor console to the gamecube/xbox/ps2. it'd depend on how comparable to the 360 it was, which also depends on how much earlier than the 360 it came...a year before the 360 you face the danger of it being dreamcast 2
-do you want to redo the dreamcast or the saturn? both consoles faced hefty competition, and even when sega made a bunch of mistakes in those eras, it cannot be denied how much sony and nintendo (in the n64 era) just hit it out of the park in many ways
-the later genesis era played right could have been interesting. no add-ons (either sega-cd or 32x) would have been good, although a cheaper add-on that improved graphics a little could have helped. the n64 and saturn RAM expansions show that a cheap add-on that has a small but concrete impact on performance can be successful. but sega instead made expensive add-ons that basically created an entire new platform. in the end you had to figure out if the game you wanted was on genesis, sega-cd, 32x or 32x+sega cd. that's crazy times.
honestly a dreamcast successor _could_ have done decently on the market. the wii/ps3/360/ds/psp era, if anything, proved that the console market could support a lot of players comfortably
-do you want to give them a bunch of money so they can make a succesor to the dreamcast? that could go well, given how the early bird status of the 360 helped it a lot. but it could be the dreamcast all over again, with people waiting on the successor console to the gamecube/xbox/ps2. it'd depend on how comparable to the 360 it was, which also depends on how much earlier than the 360 it came...a year before the 360 you face the danger of it being dreamcast 2
-do you want to redo the dreamcast or the saturn? both consoles faced hefty competition, and even when sega made a bunch of mistakes in those eras, it cannot be denied how much sony and nintendo (in the n64 era) just hit it out of the park in many ways
-the later genesis era played right could have been interesting. no add-ons (either sega-cd or 32x) would have been good, although a cheaper add-on that improved graphics a little could have helped. the n64 and saturn RAM expansions show that a cheap add-on that has a small but concrete impact on performance can be successful. but sega instead made expensive add-ons that basically created an entire new platform. in the end you had to figure out if the game you wanted was on genesis, sega-cd, 32x or 32x+sega cd. that's crazy times.
honestly a dreamcast successor _could_ have done decently on the market. the wii/ps3/360/ds/psp era, if anything, proved that the console market could support a lot of players comfortably
Jack Random
Member
I don't think they would be too far off from where they are now.
Sega's strength was in experimental extreme niche products. The industry has become less and less tolerant of that stance.
Sega's strength was in experimental extreme niche products. The industry has become less and less tolerant of that stance.
SuperCambot
Banned
Crazy Taxi 7
Let's agree to disagree then.
My point is that it wasn't just Sega screwing up that let the majority of third party support go to Sony but that Sony was better positioned to get said support also because Sony wasn't really a big gaming publishers which meant they tried their utmost to attract third-party support.
Reading Edge issues from 1995-1996 is evident how both journalists and developers were rooting for Sony, I kid you not.
PdotMichael
Banned
I mean isn't it common sense.
You sell twice so much consoles as the previous market leader and everything is a result of the competition "fucked up" (who don't even reach your sale numbers together) and not because you brought something new to the tables.
/s
You sell twice so much consoles as the previous market leader and everything is a result of the competition "fucked up" (who don't even reach your sale numbers together) and not because you brought something new to the tables.
/s
Cindi Mayweather
Member
Going 3d wasn't a sure thing? Are you kidding me? Games like Virtua Fighter, Daytona USA, Donkey Kong Country, and Starfox made it clear as early as 1994 that the future was 3d. In America, in 1994, when DKC came out it was enough to turn the tide for the SNES in America. Why? 3d. At that point everyone expected 3d to take over next gen and Sega made a 2d focused system despite making top of the line 3d arcade games at the time. It was ludicrous. Sega also put the Saturn out WAY too early. There are so many stupid decisions regarding the Saturn it's impossible to track them all.
PdotMichael
Banned
It's some crazy stuff that it wasn't until the Dramcast that Sega embraced the synergy effects between arcade and console businesses.
Cindi Mayweather
Member
I know right? Making a machine that can run Virtua Fighter and Daytona almost as well as the arcade should have been the goal. Or making Sonic's speed translate from 2d to 3d easily? But nah, let's focus on 2d. Weird ass system. Stupid ass management. This shit was obvious as early as 1994: 3d was the future, and within two years, 3d took over consoles while Sega had a fucking 2d machine. The jokes write themselves.
D.Lo
Member
We're talking about a hypothetical where Sega acted like Sony I guess. If the Saturn had been the PS1, well, it would have been the PS1+Saturn. Konami and Capcom and most other Japanese devs were still happy to publish on Sega, Capcom in particular gave Sega masses of love on both Saturn and DC. Sega were apparently actually easier to deal with than Sony in many cases, no anti-2D policies and better production pipelines early on (it was Sega's second CD console, after all), if you were around back then you would have seen PS1 packaging veering all over the place in design, longboxes, shortboxes etc.
You're right about the EU distribution network advantaging Sony. But they could only take advantage of that advantage because they had all the top developers on board primarily from Japan already. Europe, despite ending up quite lucrative due to Sony's ability to consolidate it, was clearly the third priority after North America and Japan. Only need to look at the almost always much later PAL release dates and Sony's pathetic efforts with PAL ports to see that.
Consolidating PAL was a sweet bonus to Sony's eventual worldwide console total. But it wasn't where the main battles were fought.
You realise Sony was like the 10th console to be CD based?
This is horse before the cart too.
Yes a successful, decently powerful, market leading CD based platform led to more games released. Not dramatically mind you, there were 1100 Famicom games released officially, and about 1200 PS1 games released in Japan - number of games released is directly related to being market leader and the longevity of the console. Both those consoles release lists came over a 10 year period, and the latter years were full of huge loads of cheap shovelware sold at budget prices. That's just what happens with success and longevity.
But there's no reason a Sega console couldn't have been the one that saw that, Saturn was on the same cheap format and had similar licensing fees. Except that it was made by Sega who were a mess.
Well, sort of. The Mega Drive was an arcade board variation too.
The Saturn was just a terrible compromised console design. And it was the third strike after the stupid Mega CD and 32X releases.
PdotMichael
Banned
Your point?
deriks
4-Time GIF/Meme God
I guess that Sega would be the first major company to adopt the upgrade system (like the Neo and Scorpio). Also, chances are that Microsoft will always do partnership with they, and every Sega console will come with an Windows 10 or something, so they will win money by doing very little
Cindi Mayweather
Member
The real what if alternate universe that interests me is the one where Nintendo uses discs instead of carts for the 64.
Sega's mistakes are too deeply ingrained at that point to give a fuck. Their fate is sealed. But Nintendo making 64 a disc based system is something else entirely. I should make a thread about gaming what ifs.
Or what if Saturn had a 3d Sonic and it was amazing?
Sega's mistakes are too deeply ingrained at that point to give a fuck. Their fate is sealed. But Nintendo making 64 a disc based system is something else entirely. I should make a thread about gaming what ifs.
Or what if Saturn had a 3d Sonic and it was amazing?
D.Lo
Member
You seemed to be saying CD was somehow a unique innovation to Sony? Probably not, now I can see they can read like two separate points.
I addressed the CD format stuff (which is why Nintendo was going to cede developer support regardless, the key being "to who?").
Games were going to be cheaper and less risky than the previous generation in any case, and they wouldn't have been significantly more expensive to have created the same games for Saturn as it would have been for PlayStation (and this was the case for many/most games as the start, hitting both, despite the Saturn's nightmarish design).
Yea, that was the point really. That the flow of games that defined the 32bit gen for PlayStation would have been Saturn games in any scenario that Sega remained a strong competitor.
DarkConfidant
Member
If Sega never faltered, they would not have been Sega.
Their best bet was to ditch the Sega CD and to partner with Sony, circa 92, after the Nintendo deal fell apart.
Their other good chance was to not punk out when designing the Saturn, and either make a weak, but easy to develop for console, or delayed the Saturn until 96 and made a more powerful 3D console.
If they never made any mistakes ever, nothing we know about games would be true today.
Their best bet was to ditch the Sega CD and to partner with Sony, circa 92, after the Nintendo deal fell apart.
Their other good chance was to not punk out when designing the Saturn, and either make a weak, but easy to develop for console, or delayed the Saturn until 96 and made a more powerful 3D console.
If they never made any mistakes ever, nothing we know about games would be true today.
Kaji AF16
Member
To imagine an alternate timeline in which Sega thrived post-Mega Drive is probably too complex given how much the market has changed in the last 20 years.
Sony´s gaming division has gotten unexpectedly strong, Nintendo has -excepting the Wii impact thanks to "casual" demographics- been becoming more and more niche, and the very powerful but often controversial current third player (Microsoft) probably wouldn´t have entered the console industry if Sony hadn´t achieved such a dominant position at the turn of the century.
Even if the main causes behind Sega´s downfall are relatively comprehended, a different scenario is a difficult "what-if" to visualize. Ultimately, I believe that Sega would have been (as even the mighty Nintendo was) eventually outmatched by Sony´s resources and popularity. Perhaps the only chance to equalize the forces would have been one that´s still somewhat feasible
: Sega being bought / transformed into a first party by Microsoft.
Sony´s gaming division has gotten unexpectedly strong, Nintendo has -excepting the Wii impact thanks to "casual" demographics- been becoming more and more niche, and the very powerful but often controversial current third player (Microsoft) probably wouldn´t have entered the console industry if Sony hadn´t achieved such a dominant position at the turn of the century.
Even if the main causes behind Sega´s downfall are relatively comprehended, a different scenario is a difficult "what-if" to visualize. Ultimately, I believe that Sega would have been (as even the mighty Nintendo was) eventually outmatched by Sony´s resources and popularity. Perhaps the only chance to equalize the forces would have been one that´s still somewhat feasible
(and desired by many who, like me, grew on Sega consoles and now play on Xbox)
3D-like presentation? Sure. Full polygonal realtime 3D? That was still a different matter, and people were still experimenting with all sorts of in retrospect weird solutions in place of that, which probably explains their choice with going for quads over polygons. Voxels, raycasting, spheroids, multi-directional sprites etc etc were all over the place before polygons really took over as the universal standard further into the 90's.
Saturn specs were being worked on as early as 1992 which compounds all of this. But their decisions on hardware design do seem more understandable given that context.
JaseMath
Member
100% this. Anyone interested in the rise and fall of Sega should definitely read Console Wars. It's fascinating.
IronicSonic
Member
A company that still has East-Wast coordination/ego problems.
Probably Sonic, VF, Sega Rally/GT, Dayotna, JetSet, Panzer Dragon and Shenmue series would have new games in 2016
Probably Sonic, VF, Sega Rally/GT, Dayotna, JetSet, Panzer Dragon and Shenmue series would have new games in 2016
Other than Sonic and Virtua Fighter, I still wouldn't expect the others to still be around. Even when reasonably successful, Sega was routinely sunsetting IPs in favour of new ones with the transitions between each generation.
That was definitely a big part of it, but they also made a huge mistake in somehow thinking that polygon-based games would not be a big part of the home console market and designing the Saturn to be more of a 2D powerhouse. It makes no sense considering how their arcade division was at the forefront of 3D gaming at the time.
Lots of Saturn analysis here, but if I could go back in time and give Sega some tips I would go back to the Sega CD design/release.
Instead of making it an expensive device with its own CPU and such, and treating it as its own platform with mainly exclusive games, they should have treated it as a true add-on.
Imagine a cheaper CD drive, relying exclusively on the Genesis hardware. With an architecture that allowed straight load and execution of smaller Genesis ROMs (4 or 8 Megabit), so that it could launch with tons of older game compilations for cheap (since the CD format was really much cheaper to produce).
And building from that base, make double, simultaneous and cheaper releases of the main Genesis titles. Imagine a CD Sonic 3, with the Michael Jackson soundtrack in full glory (he allegedly jumped out of the project because of the Genesis sound being low quality). A CD Sonic & Knuckles with Sonic 2 & 3 on the disc (sort of a Sonic compilation). Or CD versions of Streets of Rage 2 & 3, with cd-quality Yuzo Koshiro music, and maybe more frames of animation (allowed by the extra storage). A CD release of Street Fighter 2 SCE, with full-quality voice samples. Etc...
And all of those costing 20/30$ less than its cart counterparts.
I think it could have been a big success, and at least would have delayed the stigma of "too many Sega platforms" until the 32x (which of course they should have never released), giving Saturn mistakes a bit more room to breathe.
Instead of making it an expensive device with its own CPU and such, and treating it as its own platform with mainly exclusive games, they should have treated it as a true add-on.
Imagine a cheaper CD drive, relying exclusively on the Genesis hardware. With an architecture that allowed straight load and execution of smaller Genesis ROMs (4 or 8 Megabit), so that it could launch with tons of older game compilations for cheap (since the CD format was really much cheaper to produce).
And building from that base, make double, simultaneous and cheaper releases of the main Genesis titles. Imagine a CD Sonic 3, with the Michael Jackson soundtrack in full glory (he allegedly jumped out of the project because of the Genesis sound being low quality). A CD Sonic & Knuckles with Sonic 2 & 3 on the disc (sort of a Sonic compilation). Or CD versions of Streets of Rage 2 & 3, with cd-quality Yuzo Koshiro music, and maybe more frames of animation (allowed by the extra storage). A CD release of Street Fighter 2 SCE, with full-quality voice samples. Etc...
And all of those costing 20/30$ less than its cart counterparts.
I think it could have been a big success, and at least would have delayed the stigma of "too many Sega platforms" until the 32x (which of course they should have never released), giving Saturn mistakes a bit more room to breathe.
Crimsonsky
Member
Sega was always destined for failure. They continue to make rookie mistakes to this day. Their fate was already determined, and would be unavoidable without firing everyone at the time and hiring people good enough to reverse their fate. If such people even existed.
AquaticSquirrel
Member
It is interesting to think how SEGA had almost everything going for them potentially and how they seemed to screw it up again and again.
As with most things SEGA the main issue was the Japanese and USA branches civil war and struggle for power. Pretty much doomed the company.
SEGA Japan had the development and engineering talent while SEGA USA had the marketing know how and good relations with western developers.
The problem was that the USA branch had caught lightning in a bottle with the Megadrive release there and to also Europe as SEGA Europe back then was mainly just for distribution they didn't really make any big decisions.
The overall management looked at the relatively poor performance of the Megadrive in Japan who were facing an entrenched Nintendo with incredible brand presence and some dodgy protectionist practices keeping them well in the lead.
Japanese branch was likely getting compared unfavorably to the massive success abroad and so the rivalry ensued.
If the company had looked at things from a worldwide perspective and worked towards a single common goal most of the bullshittery that followed could have been avoided. That's the first thing that would need to have been fixed for this alternate timeline to play out.
I think releasing the Mega CD was a fine idea at the time and it was a serviceable add on, after all Nintendo was also looking into similar solutions so I don't really count this among their massive blunders but it certainly didn't set the world on fire and possibly should have been Japan only but again....at the time CD was going to be the big this so can't fault them too much.
Cutting support for the Megadrive was an absolutely terrible idea. Again mostly a pride thing from the Japanese branch as they finally felt that had something in the works that would be popular in their home market (Saturn) and thus didn't want to split their resources and wanted to focus only on the Saturn.
This allowed Nintendo to gain back a lot of ground in the US market towards the end of the 16-bit era (1994 - 1996). This also added to a narrative that SEGA don't support their hardware and will abandon on a whim. If SEGA had kept strongly supporting the Megadrive the way Sony/MS/Nintendo do in the transition phase/end tail of a consoles life then we could be looking at a very different course in the timeline, especially they wouldn't have lost mindshare in the marketplace and would have continued earning massive profits from Megadrive sales/software.
The next thing would be the stupid add ons. 32X should simply not have existed. The money that was wasted on R&D, production and marketing plus the development of games etc... could have been put to much better use within the company at large. The main reason for it again was the US/Japan tug of war. The Japanese branch wanted to stop focusing on Megadrive and go with their new baby but the US wanted to keep the "Genesis" brand going as it was a big success for them. If the 32X doesn't happen due to the above two points in this timeline being fixed then SEGA doesn't loose more money, mindshare and reputation in the market and whole company is focused on a single goal of success.
Add to this things like Nomad which shouldn't have existed, let's take those things out of the picture for this "better" timeline to exist. More money and reputation saved.
So far in this timeline we have a united SEGA working with great synergy and togetherness towards the single goal of worldwide success. We have a long supported Megadrive with some marketing push still behind it and more late gen releases. We have no bullshitty add-ons costing money and reputation in the market and we have a slightly weaker Nintendo in the market due to actually having competition in the tail end of the 16-bit era.
So this could potentially set up SEGA to be in a good position going into the 32-bit era.
Now it seems pretty obvious that the future was going to be 3D. Here's the thing SEGA were pretty much the pioneers for 3D gaming with their arcade business, they had created spectacle arcade experiences that wowed everyone. First 3D Fighter, Racing etc..
SEGA actually approached Lockheed Martin if I'm remembering correctly because they wanted to license their 3D flight simulator technology, or at least a cheaper version obviously. SEGA were ahead of the game in this field, you could say that at the time they had the strongest video game 3D development experience/understanding in the world at the time.
They should have leveraged this into their next home console and made the Saturn a 3D beast. The reasons for not doing this seem mostly to be a fear of cannibalizing their arcade business. "Why go to the arcade if they can get it at home?". Obviously it was a terrible read of the market to concentrate on a 2D first console at the time but I think even they could read the signs but the arcade business came first and their hope was to continue a 2 tiered system where arcades where like an "experience" where you saw the marvels of technology and home market was simpler games. Kind of like those analogies you see about the Cinema experience vs home video on a small CRT.
I can't stress enough how far ahead they should have been on this and how important it was at the time but how they dropped the ball hard. Almost makes my brain hurt.
Anyway to change the course of the timeline if they had focused on the start at making a powerhouse 3D console in the Saturn from the beginning which would also make it much easier to develop for things would have been very different.
Taking the other points of this timeline into account if SEGA come out of the 16-bit era strong and without the BS infighting if they go this route with the Saturn things are looking potentially very good for them. Megadrive still being supported for the early transition years to the 32-bit era. Nintendo still launching really late with N64 exactly as it is, Cartridges an all.
At the time lots of companies were fed up of Nintendo's shit policies and treatment of them and were looking for any excuse to get away from them, Nintendo launching late and going with carts rather than CDs helped seal that deal.
Even in our time line SEGA were making great headway in Japan and with Japanese developers. Like many had said Resident Evil, Tomb Raider etc... were originally going to be Saturn exclusives, even Final Fantasy VII was aiming for Saturn. So taking all of this into account with a non fumbled 16-bit tail era and strong foundation for the 32-Bit era things could have been very very different for the "new" timeline.
Now Sony were certainly no slouch, their marketing was amazing. They had the money to back up their play into gaming, they had solid hardware and they were offering a way out from Nintendo's grip and also the ability to not compete with the amazing first parties of SEGA and Nintendo, to have the spotlight. Definitely enticing for developers.
Also they were willing to co-fund development, assist with marketing or even pay for all marketing in some cases. Hard to refuse from a dev stand point.
Having said that in our timeline SEGA basically handed them their ball and the whole marker due to all of their blunders so these once Saturn games all because Playstation landmarks instead. But in the new timeline with a strong SEGA with a 3D focused Saturn launched on time and with good pricing it is very possible that Sony could have been ignored in the maket by the hardcore for someone they know and again the developers could have chosen to make most of those games Saturn exclusives.
So it's possible Sony could have fumbled with their foray into gaming and quickly disappeared like some before them. The Saturn could have essentially become the Playstation in terms of dominance, or maybe a slight less successful one without Sony's marketing prowess/financial backing.
Of course the market could have split more evenly with some developers such as Namco and others going mostly Sony and others going mostly Sega. With this Sony has their foot in the door with a solid contender but don't become the phenomenon that Playstation became and SEGA have a strong market presence with the Saturn, possibly leading the generation. This all assumes Nintendo goes exactly as they did in the real timeline so no specific changes there, N64 still launches late with cartridges and sells around the same it did originally.
It's important to note that this Saturn has a wildly successful Shenmue that's marked as a landmark title and system seller. The story completes etc... tons of great ports of things like Virtua Fighter, Sega Rally which actually become successful this time and are competent ports, plus other SEGA games that never existed that would likely have been developed become a strong Saturn library along with likely the lionshare of games that we know now as "Playstation" games.
Also as others have said, have a strong 3D Sonic game early in Saturn's life. This makes a huge difference to the market.
Obviously in this new timeline there is no Dreamcast as the Saturn was a successful generation.
After that it's pretty much impossible to tell where things could go as the timelines would diverge far too much to be able to predict anything. Would PS2 have still been a thing? Would it have been the phenomenon it was? Would Nintendo still make Gamecube? Would there be a Saturn 2? Would Microsoft buy SEGA? Would there still be an Xbox if they didn't?
Just too hard to tell but a fun hypothetical. SEGA had the opportunity to make that timeline a reality or at least elements of it in some form but they dropped the ball hard like nobody has ever done before. SEGA really is their own worst enemy. The main thing to take from it was the in fighting rivalry. Nothing else in the timeline happens unless that gets fixed as it's literally the crux of everything else. Looking at it like that it's pretty clear to pinpoint that as the main reasons for SEGA becoming what they did.
As with most things SEGA the main issue was the Japanese and USA branches civil war and struggle for power. Pretty much doomed the company.
SEGA Japan had the development and engineering talent while SEGA USA had the marketing know how and good relations with western developers.
The problem was that the USA branch had caught lightning in a bottle with the Megadrive release there and to also Europe as SEGA Europe back then was mainly just for distribution they didn't really make any big decisions.
The overall management looked at the relatively poor performance of the Megadrive in Japan who were facing an entrenched Nintendo with incredible brand presence and some dodgy protectionist practices keeping them well in the lead.
Japanese branch was likely getting compared unfavorably to the massive success abroad and so the rivalry ensued.
If the company had looked at things from a worldwide perspective and worked towards a single common goal most of the bullshittery that followed could have been avoided. That's the first thing that would need to have been fixed for this alternate timeline to play out.
I think releasing the Mega CD was a fine idea at the time and it was a serviceable add on, after all Nintendo was also looking into similar solutions so I don't really count this among their massive blunders but it certainly didn't set the world on fire and possibly should have been Japan only but again....at the time CD was going to be the big this so can't fault them too much.
Cutting support for the Megadrive was an absolutely terrible idea. Again mostly a pride thing from the Japanese branch as they finally felt that had something in the works that would be popular in their home market (Saturn) and thus didn't want to split their resources and wanted to focus only on the Saturn.
This allowed Nintendo to gain back a lot of ground in the US market towards the end of the 16-bit era (1994 - 1996). This also added to a narrative that SEGA don't support their hardware and will abandon on a whim. If SEGA had kept strongly supporting the Megadrive the way Sony/MS/Nintendo do in the transition phase/end tail of a consoles life then we could be looking at a very different course in the timeline, especially they wouldn't have lost mindshare in the marketplace and would have continued earning massive profits from Megadrive sales/software.
The next thing would be the stupid add ons. 32X should simply not have existed. The money that was wasted on R&D, production and marketing plus the development of games etc... could have been put to much better use within the company at large. The main reason for it again was the US/Japan tug of war. The Japanese branch wanted to stop focusing on Megadrive and go with their new baby but the US wanted to keep the "Genesis" brand going as it was a big success for them. If the 32X doesn't happen due to the above two points in this timeline being fixed then SEGA doesn't loose more money, mindshare and reputation in the market and whole company is focused on a single goal of success.
Add to this things like Nomad which shouldn't have existed, let's take those things out of the picture for this "better" timeline to exist. More money and reputation saved.
So far in this timeline we have a united SEGA working with great synergy and togetherness towards the single goal of worldwide success. We have a long supported Megadrive with some marketing push still behind it and more late gen releases. We have no bullshitty add-ons costing money and reputation in the market and we have a slightly weaker Nintendo in the market due to actually having competition in the tail end of the 16-bit era.
So this could potentially set up SEGA to be in a good position going into the 32-bit era.
Now it seems pretty obvious that the future was going to be 3D. Here's the thing SEGA were pretty much the pioneers for 3D gaming with their arcade business, they had created spectacle arcade experiences that wowed everyone. First 3D Fighter, Racing etc..
SEGA actually approached Lockheed Martin if I'm remembering correctly because they wanted to license their 3D flight simulator technology, or at least a cheaper version obviously. SEGA were ahead of the game in this field, you could say that at the time they had the strongest video game 3D development experience/understanding in the world at the time.
They should have leveraged this into their next home console and made the Saturn a 3D beast. The reasons for not doing this seem mostly to be a fear of cannibalizing their arcade business. "Why go to the arcade if they can get it at home?". Obviously it was a terrible read of the market to concentrate on a 2D first console at the time but I think even they could read the signs but the arcade business came first and their hope was to continue a 2 tiered system where arcades where like an "experience" where you saw the marvels of technology and home market was simpler games. Kind of like those analogies you see about the Cinema experience vs home video on a small CRT.
I can't stress enough how far ahead they should have been on this and how important it was at the time but how they dropped the ball hard. Almost makes my brain hurt.
Anyway to change the course of the timeline if they had focused on the start at making a powerhouse 3D console in the Saturn from the beginning which would also make it much easier to develop for things would have been very different.
Taking the other points of this timeline into account if SEGA come out of the 16-bit era strong and without the BS infighting if they go this route with the Saturn things are looking potentially very good for them. Megadrive still being supported for the early transition years to the 32-bit era. Nintendo still launching really late with N64 exactly as it is, Cartridges an all.
At the time lots of companies were fed up of Nintendo's shit policies and treatment of them and were looking for any excuse to get away from them, Nintendo launching late and going with carts rather than CDs helped seal that deal.
Even in our time line SEGA were making great headway in Japan and with Japanese developers. Like many had said Resident Evil, Tomb Raider etc... were originally going to be Saturn exclusives, even Final Fantasy VII was aiming for Saturn. So taking all of this into account with a non fumbled 16-bit tail era and strong foundation for the 32-Bit era things could have been very very different for the "new" timeline.
Now Sony were certainly no slouch, their marketing was amazing. They had the money to back up their play into gaming, they had solid hardware and they were offering a way out from Nintendo's grip and also the ability to not compete with the amazing first parties of SEGA and Nintendo, to have the spotlight. Definitely enticing for developers.
Also they were willing to co-fund development, assist with marketing or even pay for all marketing in some cases. Hard to refuse from a dev stand point.
Having said that in our timeline SEGA basically handed them their ball and the whole marker due to all of their blunders so these once Saturn games all because Playstation landmarks instead. But in the new timeline with a strong SEGA with a 3D focused Saturn launched on time and with good pricing it is very possible that Sony could have been ignored in the maket by the hardcore for someone they know and again the developers could have chosen to make most of those games Saturn exclusives.
So it's possible Sony could have fumbled with their foray into gaming and quickly disappeared like some before them. The Saturn could have essentially become the Playstation in terms of dominance, or maybe a slight less successful one without Sony's marketing prowess/financial backing.
Of course the market could have split more evenly with some developers such as Namco and others going mostly Sony and others going mostly Sega. With this Sony has their foot in the door with a solid contender but don't become the phenomenon that Playstation became and SEGA have a strong market presence with the Saturn, possibly leading the generation. This all assumes Nintendo goes exactly as they did in the real timeline so no specific changes there, N64 still launches late with cartridges and sells around the same it did originally.
It's important to note that this Saturn has a wildly successful Shenmue that's marked as a landmark title and system seller. The story completes etc... tons of great ports of things like Virtua Fighter, Sega Rally which actually become successful this time and are competent ports, plus other SEGA games that never existed that would likely have been developed become a strong Saturn library along with likely the lionshare of games that we know now as "Playstation" games.
Also as others have said, have a strong 3D Sonic game early in Saturn's life. This makes a huge difference to the market.
Obviously in this new timeline there is no Dreamcast as the Saturn was a successful generation.
After that it's pretty much impossible to tell where things could go as the timelines would diverge far too much to be able to predict anything. Would PS2 have still been a thing? Would it have been the phenomenon it was? Would Nintendo still make Gamecube? Would there be a Saturn 2? Would Microsoft buy SEGA? Would there still be an Xbox if they didn't?
Just too hard to tell but a fun hypothetical. SEGA had the opportunity to make that timeline a reality or at least elements of it in some form but they dropped the ball hard like nobody has ever done before. SEGA really is their own worst enemy. The main thing to take from it was the in fighting rivalry. Nothing else in the timeline happens unless that gets fixed as it's literally the crux of everything else. Looking at it like that it's pretty clear to pinpoint that as the main reasons for SEGA becoming what they did.
Nintendo do NOT strongly support their systems at the tail end of a console life, it was painfully obvious with failures like GC and WiiU but even with Wii they did the same.
The reason being that there is no incentive to sustain a console at the end of a life cycle for a short term gain when your attention should be focused on your future (the next platform). The products with high margin in the industry are software and accessories and if your new system isn't a success your bottom line is severely impacted in negative for 4-5 years.
Sony is a little different because historically they keep selling their old consoles at the tail end, now far cheaper to manufacture, in third world Countries or as cheap alternative in US and Europe but their software output is moved to the successor (happened with PS1 and PS2 but not PS3).
This is why 32X was an absolutely asinine move, you don't want to spend resources for a stopgap platform which doesn't have a future during a transition!
The wiser Nintendo cancelled games that had the potential to be million seller (Star Fox 2) when they feared they could negatively impact the business for N64.
Also I don't believe Sega stopped the support for Mega Drive too early (the software output more or less ended around March 1996).
Many forget that Mega Drive was released two years before the SNES and that Saturn was launched one and half year before the N64, of course their priority was a bit shifted time wise compared to Nintendo.
There are interviews with Squaresoft personnel which explain clearly for what consoles FFVII was planned/considered (SNES, Ultra 64 and PS1).
Saturn was never an option.
D
Deleted member 74300
Unconfirmed Member
If it was it would have helped give Saturn just the boost it needed.
Not to say that was all from FF7 but still.
D
Deleted member 74300
Unconfirmed Member
Not sure how I posted again from editing.
Googledotcom666
Banned
Technically wasn't the Dreamcast the first Microsoft partnership console? As I remember the Dreamcast had the Windows CE as the operating system?
For me the Dreamcast was the last console revolution we have had since the NES
For me the Dreamcast was the last console revolution we have had since the NES
AcademicSaucer
Member
Sonic has been a third party franchise for 13 years.
Sonic was a first party franchise for 12 years.
Sonic was a first party franchise for 12 years.
rokkerkory
Member
Sega needed to fix the japan to US drama first
It was a clusterfuck
It was a clusterfuck
Silent Chief
Member
I assume they would have released a console head on against the 360.
How it would have fared depends largely on what the online service would have looked like.
How it would have fared depends largely on what the online service would have looked like.
Hyperactivity
Banned
Sega was like a dying star
Still not a company with that weird and strange mix of great games
veloxStrix
Banned
Upgrading smartphone users.
Patrick Young
Member
By now their list of consoles would look like the credits for Sailor Moon.