Bernd Lauert
Banned
No, it was provided as evidence that digital grew the market. That's literally what's happening, with or without including mobile.
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Mat Piscatella from NPD: Data still suggest that subscription services like Game Pass are helping grow the overall market
kingfey
Banned
"Digital did not grew the market... it just migrated it.... games brought in Physical form started to be brought in Digital form.
That is what Chris is saying."
read it again. It sounds like digital grow the market. Because physical games are starting to migrate to digital market. That is growing the market.
When you have access to digital market, you can reach wider audience, which physical cant. That is growing game sales. More wider audience, more players, more money for sequels, more game sales.
megreotsugua
Banned
I think MS is slowly arriving at a conclusion that their game subscription domination plan will not work out as they envisioned.
The formula might be different now. They might be aiming for a lower number of subscribers now with the hope of still selling their 1st party games to those who don't subscribe to gamepass.
I think Piscatella is wrong if he thinks that gamepass doesn't cannibalize sales on xbox.
iamvin22
Industry Verified
wheres the data?
Bernd Lauert
Banned
He said, without any evidence.
Your graph does not show that, though.
The graph does not break down virtual content and add-ons by platform. It could be the case that without mobile that there has been no growth at all. I am not suggesting that is the case, just that your graph is not evidence of it.
Augusto Pinochet
Banned
I think Mat Tortellini is correct. Until now weve not seen a decline in sales relative to gamepass.
Then you failed to understand the context of the discussion. Microtransactions are there either through physical or digital. It makes no difference. Mtx money is there either through a subscription service or traditional game sale. Chris is saying short term digital game sales boosted physical game sales (not mtxs or dlc) but long term it just replaced it.
Nobody is saying current traditional game sales (physical and digital) cannot have microtransactions and dlc because they already do. They are talking about game sales i.e a subscription service vs digital/physical game sales. This has nothing to do with mtx and f2p.
This is exactly what this graph isn't evidence of. Digital game sales didnt really grow the market, especially not triple it. It mostly replaced physical. Mtx money did but that's true of physical, digital or subscription methods of getting a game. He did not make it clear this is mtx money though. He flogged it off as 'digital sales' growing the market over physical when physical sales with mtxs did the same.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Well look at that. Sub plans arent killing gaming.
Just like the million movie, tv and music sub plans havent killed those either.
Just like the million movie, tv and music sub plans havent killed those either.
'just replaced' makes it sound like you believe the full game software revenue hasn't grown?
Fuz
Banned
How naive.
Bernd Lauert
Banned
But physical sales did no such thing, since physical has been going down for years now. Digital sales grew, MTX grew, but physical has been steadily going down.
Augusto Pinochet
Banned
We are not in a Video killed the Radio Star scenario. They can coexist.
It absolutely does based simply on sales of first party games but notice what he is saying:
Across all platforms. This is what Chris is saying here:
Meaning a particular game may get a boost on other platforms where the service doesn't provide that game or people aren't subscribed but if everybody did subscriptions and offered similar games that amplification doesn't exist. What these subscriptions are good for is exposure for particular games on the service that wouldn't have had them otherwise. Not big AAA games.
There was growth before but has trajectory changed with digital or is growth just the same as before with digital now eating into physical?
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Of games on gamepass or all games released on xbox?
Why have you quoted me under somebody elses username?
Mtxs have nothing to do with physical vs digital. Physical sales contribute mtx sales just the same. They exist in both copies of the game. Nobody was saying mtxs in f2p games or physical/digital haven't gone up but they have nothing to do with this discussion and your graph is as good as useless here.
Good question, do we know the growth of full game sales during a largely physical era without dlc being commonplace and with? I will see if any of the major publishers have good data on this. Think Activision might.
Hezekiah
Banned
Yeah that's why data is needed, to specify exactly what's been referred to here.
ethomaz
Banned
Both Halo and Forza games didn’t have Steam versions in the past.
That is why I absented from analysis the impact of Gamepass in these releases.
These games seems to have a boost in overall sales but how much is due Steam? And we don’t have specific Xbox sales to see how they compare with past games.
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ethomaz
Banned
Full games sales revenues looks to be decreased.
If you look at the companies reports the full games sales (digital + physical) seems to me smaller than in the past but the grow in downloaded content (DLC, MTX, etc) grow to the point to make overall revenue bigger.
The declive started way before Gamepass (even generation to generation) but exceptionally at COVID lockdown period it increased… so COVID helped to hide the declive.
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Kagey K
Banned
Contact Us
Reach out to Circana for your market analysis needs. Our 'Contact Us' page provides easy access to our team for inquiries, support, and more information.
www.npd.com
You can subscribe and get all the data you need through this link.
Bernd Lauert
Banned
If we're talking about market growth, then there's a huge difference between physical and digital with regards to MTX. Physical contributes way less to MTX revenue when it's dropping year by year. And digital contributes way more since it's growing year by year. Digital sales are the driver behind the general market growth.
megreotsugua
Banned
I totally agree.
Here's the thing though. I'm no longer worried about that. I don't believe game subscription will be more than a niche in the over-all gaming consumption. The greater majority will not find game subscription compelling. It's just so different how we consume video games from other types of media. There are millions out there who play the same game for months if not years with occasional game or two from time to time. It's not the amount of games, but it's simply want you want to play. And there are those who simply don't have the time to play games to find paying $10-$15 per month worth it.
I agree 100%. The games that would be perfect for these subscription are those game that need exposure. Those that are not guaranteed million sellers but the publisher or devs are confident on the fun factor and quality of the games.
MS puts their first party day 1 to try to increase sub number. Sony doesn't have to follow suit. There are different other ways to do that than cannibalizing your millions of sales. And in the process, they don't have to reformulate the monetization of their games just to fit in a sub service.
tmlDan
Member
I had no idea, thank you for this.Contact Us
Reach out to Circana for your market analysis needs. Our 'Contact Us' page provides easy access to our team for inquiries, support, and more information.
You can subscribe and get all the data you need through this link.
Hezekiah
Banned
It might work, but they need a lot more subscribers, and they need them to be paying for significantly more than £8 a month (or less to be honest).
With that said we can expect more live service games. First-party single-player games like Starfield and Fable have the potential to one-and-done and be finished very quickly and cheaply on GamePass.
iHaunter
Member
What I do is wait for a few games to be available, then just play them, then unsub. Best way IMHO.
Source cause you might be right regarding full game sales, EA definitely is down but lets find someone that is a FUT company firstly.
Without DLC
With DLC
Activision seems to be much more constant in terms of DLC/Full Game sales so will try and plot that out?
GhostOfTsu
Banned
Exactly! The last Halo and Forza Horizon didn't launch on Steam Day 1 so if there is growth it's coming from there.
Steam is it's own market with 100+ millions users. It's like MS knew GP would cannibalize sales on Xbox so they found another way (and it worked really well).
megreotsugua
Banned
IMO, of game on gamepass, the effect would be less day 1 sales.
Of all games released on xbox, the effect would be less sales in general. It's unlikely for subbers to shop around for other games to play (and feel guilty of rendering their subscription not worth it) unless it's a game that they really wanna play and it's not on gamepass, then that might still get a purchase.
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mejin
Member
He has data, but his conclusions are not a fact. There is a difference when you say who "won the month" and say "Data still suggest that subscription services like Game Pass are helping grow the overall market."
No one will question the first, but the latter it's just a different story. This is just his take on the data he has acess and the internet don't. For all I see there is definitely an impact on consumer behaviour on xbox users (and maybe not only them...why will I pay full for my platform version if it's free on a service? Will wait for promo? Don't buy? Suck it and buy it?): people buy less games now. I'm not denying exposure...I'm not insane.
His opinion is limited to the universe of games that come out on GP and sell on other platforms. So, it's not killing traditional gaming cause the games are selling on other platforms.
What happens when we don't consider Steam sales? GP is not as strong on PC as it is on console?
"Potential downside is if a game is poorly received on the service. That sentiment also appears to be amplified, which can weigh sales down." Only on Xbox platform? All platforms?
Is it really helping grow the overall market? He could post on GAF and call me out. I'd still doubt him without any kind of evidences shared.
Maybe he sees the glass as being half full when others see it as being half empty.
On game on gamepass, i definitely think there is an cannibalisation of the bigger AAA games. Not 100% sure on the indies but that's cause WoM works very differently at their scales.
I sadly don't think we have the data to see if that's the case regarding residual sales but would be really interesting to see if it surfaces within the ubisoft numbers. I don't know if I know how much of a companies revenue comes from new games and not from their older library.
kingfey
Banned
Pc are fan of halo, so I expect it to sell alot.
"The Steam release of Halo: The Master Chief Collection sold over one million units as of December 2019. "Halo reinvented how people think about video games and has grown into a global entertainment phenomenon, having sold more than 81 million copies worldwide," reads the report.Mar 1, 2021
As for forza 5, it has 10m players.
Forza Horizon 5 has more than 10 million players
Forza Horizon 5 has seen more than 10 million players since launch, Microsoft has announced.The impressive milestone me…
www.eurogamer.net
While gamepass might play a big factor here, we saw 1m people buy the early access version.
We can expect steam to have close to 1m copies sold.
Compared to fh4 which sold 480k copies in its 1st week on steam.
Forza Horizon 4 Sells an Estimated 481,566 Units First Week at Retail
The open world racing game from publisher Microsoft Studios and developer Playground Games - Forza Horizon 4 - sold 481,566 units first week [...]
www.vgchartz.com
The game was hitting top 10 weekly charts on steam in 2021.
GHG
Member
Zok310
Banned
These are facts, which is my point. From the image i can see he is white, fat and has a dog.
ethomaz
Banned
FH4 was released in Steam very late.Pc are fan of halo, so I expect it to sell alot.
"The Steam release of Halo: The Master Chief Collection sold over one million units as of December 2019. "Halo reinvented how people think about video games and has grown into a global entertainment phenomenon, having sold more than 81 million copies worldwide," reads the report.Mar 1, 2021
As for forza 5, it has 10m players.
Forza Horizon 5 has more than 10 million players
Forza Horizon 5 has seen more than 10 million players since launch, Microsoft has announced.The impressive milestone me…
While gamepass might play a big factor here, we saw 1m people buy the early access version.
We can expect steam to have close to 1m copies sold.
Compared to fh4 which sold 480k copies in its 1st week on steam.
Forza Horizon 4 Sells an Estimated 481,566 Units First Week at Retail
The open world racing game from publisher Microsoft Studios and developer Playground Games - Forza Horizon 4 - sold 481,566 units first week [...]
The game was hitting top 10 weekly charts on steam in 2021.
Who wanted it already have it from Xbox or Windows Store.
Both games are the first day one Steam release in the franchises.
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Zok310
Banned
True, all they did was create their own digital bubble. So now you get to talk about them separately when 3rd party game performance ar discussed.
Bernd Lauert
Banned
I wonder what cannibalization even means in this context. Because there's the possibility of a publisher making more money with Gamepass than without it, despite having lower sales. That would be an absolute win for the publisher, so would he see it as "cannibalization"?
megreotsugua
Banned
I would tend to agree with indies and other out of the field games. The sub service might even give them free advertisement. I agree with Piscatella with his amplification comment.
ethomaz
Banned
What possibility the publisher has on Gamepass to cover the $60 revenue for from the game sales?
How exactly publisher makes more money with Gamepass?
Or are you trying to say more gamers will experience the game buys MTX for it? Because that won’t work in most case… only to small games that should have very small sales.
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True, that's a very big possibility on the smaller games.
kingfey
Banned
Gamepass has 1 job. Increase its service userbase, give exposure to games.
It did that job.
The ascent, small AA indie game made $5m from non gamepass users
The Ascent's $5 Million Sales Are Without Xbox Game Pass
The Ascent was just released as an indie cyberpunk-themed role-playing game but which is now on par with triple-a games after accounting record-setting
segmentnext.com
These have affects in game sales. A game like that, wouldn't have sold that much in its 1st week.
Your argument is gamepass doesn't affect other console sales. But it does. GP gives free advertising to these games, which creates a buzz. These buzz makes other people buy the game.
That is what gamepass does. It gives games that have hard time selling, enough exposure on other systems.
If you are a playstation user, do you think you every game that is dropping on your system? Most of the time, you just buy games that you find it attractive.
But what happens when people keep mentioning these games on other devices? You will go a head and buy it. That buzz that is created on that system, is affecting your habits of buying games.
Not everyone watches ads all the time. And when people have access to these games, they will do the advertisement to their fellow friends/followers.
That is market grows. Same thing E3, game of the year, playstation events, xbox events, and other publishers events do. That is what gamepass does.
kingfey
Banned
Xbox gamepass money+ Xbox game sales+other platform sales.
That is how publishers make money.
Marvel avengers didn't make money, while outriders made money.
Bernd Lauert
Banned
What do you mean by how? Microsoft pays a fee for every 3rd party Gamepass game. The fee could easily outsize the lost revenue from "cannibalized" sales.
ethomaz
Banned
These are around 150k copies at $30.Gamepass has 1 job. Increase its service userbase, give exposure to games.
It did that job.
The ascent, small AA indie game made $5m from non gamepass users
The Ascent's $5 Million Sales Are Without Xbox Game Pass
The Ascent was just released as an indie cyberpunk-themed role-playing game but which is now on par with triple-a games after accounting record-setting
These have affects in game sales. A game like that, wouldn't have sold that much in its 1st week.
Your argument is gamepass doesn't affect other console sales. But it does. GP gives free advertising to these games, which creates a buzz. These buzz makes other people buy the game.
That is what gamepass does. It gives games that have hard time selling, enough exposure on other systems.
If you are a playstation user, do you think you every game that is dropping on your system? Most of the time, you just buy games that you find it attractive.
But what happens when people keep mentioning these games on other devices? You will go a head and buy it. That buzz that is created on that system, is affecting your habits of buying games.
Not everyone watches ads all the time. And when people have access to these games, they will do the advertisement to their fellow friends/followers.
That is market grows. Same thing E3, game of the year, playstation events, xbox events, and other publishers events do. That is what gamepass does.
Do you think without Gamepass this game should not sell 150k+ copies on Steam for example?
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ethomaz
Banned
Unless thy have very very small sales that won’t happen.
Gamepass doesn’t give more money to publishers than what they can get with the copies sold.
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You've fucked your reply up because I did not say that. You've clearly gone to reply to me, then changed your mind and edited the text in the quote to what someone else said without changing who you are actually quoting.
kingfey
Banned
Yeah, it wouldn't on its first month, let alone 1st week.
Game had massive advertisement from xbox. Which was touted as xbox gamepass day1 game.
Bernd Lauert
Banned
You literally don't know that. It would also be a bad business decision for the publisher to put a game on Gamepass if that were true.
I think especially for smaller games, it's true that they get more money from Microsoft than they would from the revenue from selling the game.
ethomaz
Banned
Don’t know what?
MS ask a value per month for GP… they can’t give more than that per user to a single publisher.
And they have to share that with several publishers.
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