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Mat Piscatella from NPD: Data still suggest that subscription services like Game Pass are helping grow the overall market

kingfey

Banned
FH4 was released in Steam very late.
Who wanted it already have it from Xbox or Windows Store.

Both games are the first day one Steam release in the franchises.
If those games sold that much copies, what do you think the new releases will sell?
 
Some of you people sound like religious extremists. Is their an automatic switch that turns on in your brain when anything positive about MS comes out?

Like what on planet earth does this guy gain from lieing about subscription services? 😂🤦

Quiet you, we know he got a check and cashed it moments before that tweet. We are all onto you buddy.
 

kingfey

Banned
Don’t know what?

MS ask a value per month for GP… they can’t give more than that per user to a single publisher.

And they have to share that with several publishers.
You need to know how much profits these publishers are making from these games.

Remember the 60$ breakdown?
This is just digital shares, and Both companies will agree to amount of needed to put the game on the service.

Its the same as putting timed exclusive on your console. You are giving up the share of other console sales. ask ff7r, on why they arent putting the game on xbox.
 
Don’t know what?

MS ask a value per month for GP… they can’t give more than that per user to a single publisher.

And they have to share that with several publishers.
Microsoft is paying a fixed fee per game.

I've been playing Monster Train lately. It's a small-ish indie game so I assume Microsoft payed them maybe $500k for it to be on Gamepass. Did the game being on Gamepass cannibalize sales worth $500k? Probably not. That's what I mean.
 

Chukhopops

Member
Don’t know what?

MS ask a value per month for GP… they can’t give more than that per user to a single publisher.

And they have to share that with several publishers.
You know that for day 1 GP indies the payment is made in advance before the game even comes out?

You can’t be that clueless about GP and keep talking about it….

If you want examples:
Post in thread 'Report: Sony overhauling PlayStation Plus with new tiers and streaming'
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/repo...ew-tiers-and-streaming.1625307/post-265185346
 
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ethomaz

Banned
Microsoft is paying a fixed fee per game.

I've been playing Monster Train lately. It's a small-ish indie game so I assume Microsoft payed them maybe $500k for it to be on Gamepass. Did the game being on Gamepass cannibalize sales worth $500k? Probably not. That's what I mean.
You know $500k sales is 10-20k copies depending of the price.

That is exactly why I said "unless the game has very very small sales...".
 
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You know $500k sales is 10-20k copies depending of the price.
For Monster Train it's closer to 30k copies. And for a small indie game in a genre that isn't popular on console, that's a lot of copies. It's also just an example, we don't know how much money Microsoft paid them after all.
 

Dr Bass

Member
Pc are fan of halo, so I expect it to sell alot.

"The Steam release of Halo: The Master Chief Collection sold over one million units as of December 2019. "Halo reinvented how people think about video games and has grown into a global entertainment phenomenon, having sold more than 81 million copies worldwide," reads the report.Mar 1, 2021

As for forza 5, it has 10m players.


While gamepass might play a big factor here, we saw 1m people buy the early access version.

We can expect steam to have close to 1m copies sold.

Compared to fh4 which sold 480k copies in its 1st week on steam.

The game was hitting top 10 weekly charts on steam in 2021.

This topic was already discussed in the NPD thread, and it's the same overall nonsense (not referring to your post here Kingfey, but I want to respond to something here). Not sure why this little bit had to be broken out to rehash.

I guarantee you Game Pass is most of those players. We can easily show it. Using data!

Forza Horizon 5 debuted this month at number 4 (all platforms), while Pokemon was number 3 with physical only sales being counted.

Well let's look at NPDs own publicly released charts:


As you can see FH5 was indeed 4th this month, but is not in the top ten for the year. However! Pokemon is already number 8 for the year with 12 days of physical only sales. However, number 9 is Spiderman Miles Morales, a game from 2020! And number 10 is FarCry 6, a game that received pretty mediocre reviews. So even though FH5 ranked fourth for the month, it was clearly not that close to Pokemon as it can't even beat out a game from 2020 during 2021, or a game that's been available for two months that, again, was not reviewed well at all. This wouldn't matter for a normal game but Forza Horizon is supposed to be Microsoft's big franchise. And again, based on the early purchase hype, a handful of the usual posters were going off about how huge this game was going to be.

Looks like that didn't pan out.

Also remember FarCry 6 was underperforming apparently: https://metro.co.uk/2021/10/18/far-...on-far-cry-5-games-chart-16-october-15441755/

Yes that is UK only, but that is a decent enough sample size to gauge general gamer interest I would imagine. I doubt sales sentiment was vastly different in the U.S.

So basically there is still ZERO. EVIDENCE ... That sub services are growing the market. Sub services absolutely destroyed the music industry in terms of album sales. I have yet to see a shred of evidence anywhere, that people want to subscribe to a service and then spend MORE money purchasing the same games outside of that sub service. It's a complete baloney analysis backed up by nothing we can see (it was a massively down month overall, and Piscatella is talking about growing the market?) and anecdotal evidence on this very board backs up the idea of not buying games that are on GP. I've seen several forum members comment about no longer buying games because of GP (sorry don't bookmark the posts but if you read this board enough I know you've seen it) but I cannot recall a single person saying "I've signed up to GP and I am now buying more games than ever!"

Everything above is strictly based on the numbers we have. Nothing random pulled out of my rear. No desire for something to be some way when the numbers state otherwise. Just look at what the numbers are telling you and stop kissing corporate ass.

I just see so many people spouting off nonsense based on nothing like so:





To which I will always respond like Triumph here (timestamped for your pleasure):





And with that I am done once again with this silly argument based on this silly non-substantive statement.
 
What is his evidence of this though? FH5 is the first MS release to chart in the top ten since Gears 5 debuted at number 7 and that fell out of the top 20 the next month, if it's not in the top 10 next month I think he's still projecting a personal opinion.
 
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Ozriel

M$FT
I think Horizon 5 got great sales not because of Game Pass, but because of being the first new AAA Xbox console exclusive after a year or so (had other great stuff but were improved previous gen games, Flight Sim port which isn't very mainstream, smaller stuff like Psychonauts 2, indie timed console exclusives, etc), so many people got thirsty to get a big AAA exclusive, so it would bump Halo and Horizon launch sales above their normal sales.
It got great sales because it was the next entry in what is now the most popular racing game series on the market outside Mario Kart.


Not because of ‘thirst’. That’s not how it works.
 

kingfey

Banned
This topic was already discussed in the NPD thread, and it's the same overall nonsense (not referring to your post here Kingfey, but I want to respond to something here). Not sure why this little bit had to be broken out to rehash.

I guarantee you Game Pass is most of those players. We can easily show it. Using data!

Forza Horizon 5 debuted this month at number 4 (all platforms), while Pokemon was number 3 with physical only sales being counted.

Well let's look at NPDs own publicly released charts:


As you can see FH5 was indeed 4th this month, but is not in the top ten for the year. However! Pokemon is already number 8 for the year with 12 days of physical only sales. However, number 9 is Spiderman Miles Morales, a game from 2020! And number 10 is FarCry 6, a game that received pretty mediocre reviews. So even though FH5 ranked fourth for the month, it was clearly not that close to Pokemon as it can't even beat out a game from 2020 during 2021, or a game that's been available for two months that, again, was not reviewed well at all. This wouldn't matter for a normal game but Forza Horizon is supposed to be Microsoft's big franchise. And again, based on the early purchase hype, a handful of the usual posters were going off about how huge this game was going to be.

Looks like that didn't pan out.

Also remember FarCry 6 was underperforming apparently: https://metro.co.uk/2021/10/18/far-...on-far-cry-5-games-chart-16-october-15441755/

Yes that is UK only, but that is a decent enough sample size to gauge general gamer interest I would imagine. I doubt sales sentiment was vastly different in the U.S.

So basically there is still ZERO. EVIDENCE ... That sub services are growing the market. Sub services absolutely destroyed the music industry in terms of album sales. I have yet to see a shred of evidence anywhere, that people want to subscribe to a service and then spend MORE money purchasing the same games outside of that sub service. It's a complete baloney analysis backed up by nothing we can see (it was a massively down month overall, and Piscatella is talking about growing the market?) and anecdotal evidence on this very board backs up the idea of not buying games that are on GP. I've seen several forum members comment about no longer buying games because of GP (sorry don't bookmark the posts but if you read this board enough I know you've seen it) but I cannot recall a single person saying "I've signed up to GP and I am now buying more games than ever!"

Everything above is strictly based on the numbers we have. Nothing random pulled out of my rear. No desire for something to be some way when the numbers state otherwise. Just look at what the numbers are telling you and stop kissing corporate ass.

I just see so many people spouting off nonsense based on nothing like so:





To which I will always respond like Triumph here (timestamped for your pleasure):





And with that I am done once again with this silly argument based on this silly non-substantive statement.

First of all, fh4 did 10m copy sale. These people will buy the game. They wont sub the service just to play that game.

These people are like sports people. They play this 1 title for a long time. I guarantee you that, most of these players bought the game.

Xbox has more users than gamepass. Gamepass for both console/pc is 20m. So where is the rest of xbox community? Did they magically subbed to gamepass? If so, why is gamepass is at 20m?

Sub service increase the market. Look at music now, and before. More people now have a chance to make names for themselves. Before sub service, it was hard to make a name for yourselves. Same for movies.
 
This topic was already discussed in the NPD thread, and it's the same overall nonsense (not referring to your post here Kingfey, but I want to respond to something here). Not sure why this little bit had to be broken out to rehash.

I guarantee you Game Pass is most of those players. We can easily show it. Using data!

Forza Horizon 5 debuted this month at number 4 (all platforms), while Pokemon was number 3 with physical only sales being counted.

Well let's look at NPDs own publicly released charts:


As you can see FH5 was indeed 4th this month, but is not in the top ten for the year. However! Pokemon is already number 8 for the year with 12 days of physical only sales. However, number 9 is Spiderman Miles Morales, a game from 2020! And number 10 is FarCry 6, a game that received pretty mediocre reviews. So even though FH5 ranked fourth for the month, it was clearly not that close to Pokemon as it can't even beat out a game from 2020 during 2021, or a game that's been available for two months that, again, was not reviewed well at all. This wouldn't matter for a normal game but Forza Horizon is supposed to be Microsoft's big franchise. And again, based on the early purchase hype, a handful of the usual posters were going off about how huge this game was going to be.

Looks like that didn't pan out.

Also remember FarCry 6 was underperforming apparently: https://metro.co.uk/2021/10/18/far-...on-far-cry-5-games-chart-16-october-15441755/

Yes that is UK only, but that is a decent enough sample size to gauge general gamer interest I would imagine. I doubt sales sentiment was vastly different in the U.S.

So basically there is still ZERO. EVIDENCE ... That sub services are growing the market. Sub services absolutely destroyed the music industry in terms of album sales. I have yet to see a shred of evidence anywhere, that people want to subscribe to a service and then spend MORE money purchasing the same games outside of that sub service. It's a complete baloney analysis backed up by nothing we can see (it was a massively down month overall, and Piscatella is talking about growing the market?) and anecdotal evidence on this very board backs up the idea of not buying games that are on GP. I've seen several forum members comment about no longer buying games because of GP (sorry don't bookmark the posts but if you read this board enough I know you've seen it) but I cannot recall a single person saying "I've signed up to GP and I am now buying more games than ever!"

Everything above is strictly based on the numbers we have. Nothing random pulled out of my rear. No desire for something to be some way when the numbers state otherwise. Just look at what the numbers are telling you and stop kissing corporate ass.

I just see so many people spouting off nonsense based on nothing like so:





To which I will always respond like Triumph here (timestamped for your pleasure):





And with that I am done once again with this silly argument based on this silly non-substantive statement.

Cool post, but FH5 is still the best selling FH ever. Also weird flex comparing the game to the one evergreen seller the PS5 has and to a multiplatform game like Far Cry 6. (I already congratulated you on comparing the game to the small indie game called Pokemon)
 

Chukhopops

Member
As you can see FH5 was indeed 4th this month, but is not in the top ten for the year. However! Pokemon is already number 8 for the year with 12 days of physical only sales. However, number 9 is Spiderman Miles Morales, a game from 2020! And number 10 is FarCry 6, a game that received pretty mediocre reviews. So even though FH5 ranked fourth for the month, it was clearly not that close to Pokemon as it can't even beat out a game from 2020 during 2021, or a game that's been available for two months that, again, was not reviewed well at all. This wouldn't matter for a normal game but Forza Horizon is supposed to be Microsoft's big franchise. And again, based on the early purchase hype, a handful of the usual posters were going off about how huge this game was going to be.
So the game sold less than Pokémon, a game that has been on sale for an entire year versus less than a month, and Far Cry 6, which actually sold well overall, as well as Odyssey actually:


I wouldn’t expect FH to beat Pokémon and Far Cry so I don’t see it as a big doom indicator?
 

kingfey

Banned
I think Horizon 5 got great sales not because of Game Pass, but because of being the first new AAA Xbox console exclusive after a year or so (had other great stuff but were improved previous gen games, Flight Sim port which isn't very mainstream, smaller stuff like Psychonauts 2, indie timed console exclusives, etc), so many people got thirsty to get a big AAA exclusive, so it would bump Halo and Horizon launch sales above their normal sales.
I disagree with you here.
Fh5 sold because its has the best graphics for a car game. The open world makes it very appealing for alot of people to play it.
Even non car racing gamers bought the game.

It had nothing to do with being xbox 1st part game.

also halo comeback to pc, which is why its very popular on PC.
 
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zeorhymer

Member
receipts-houston.gif


Let's assume that a brand new game comes out to GP. People who have it will play it for as long as it's there and nothing else new. Once it's gone, more than likely, they're not going to be in a rush to buy that game for full price since they already played it. It's like, you know, "renting" a game. Instead, they'll play the next new shiny on GP and buy that game on sale when they have the itch. It may prolong the tale end sales, but there's no evidence that it "grow the overall market."
 

yurinka

Member
I disagree with you here.
Fh5 sold because its has the best graphics for a game. The open world makes it very appealing for alot of people to play it.
Even non car racing gamers bought the game.

It had nothing to do with being xbox 1st part game.

also halo comeback to pc, which is why its very popular on PC.
Yes, being a great game with great visuals, and from a popular franchise, obviously gave it the base of its good sales, which also happened in the previous ones. I meant in this particular game vs the previous entries on the franchise.

It got great sales because it was the next entry in what is now the most popular racing game series on the market outside Mario Kart.
Not sure if true considering Need for Speed passed the 150 million units sold almost 10 years ago, Trackmania (now a F2P) has a huge userbase, GT Sport achieved 8 million units sold like 2 years ago and there may be some other one I may miss, like one something from Codemasters or Sega. Publishers aren't very transparent with racing game sales so it's difficult to know or estimate their sales specially in console. But at least regarding reviews yes, MK and Forza/Horizon are the most popular ones now.
 

Schmick

Member
receipts-houston.gif


Let's assume that a brand new game comes out to GP. People who have it will play it for as long as it's there and nothing else new. Once it's gone, more than likely, they're not going to be in a rush to buy that game for full price since they already played it. It's like, you know, "renting" a game. Instead, they'll play the next new shiny on GP and buy that game on sale when they have the itch. It may prolong the tale end sales, but there's no evidence that it "grow the overall market."
Chances are by the time a game leaves Gamepass its already selling at a reduced price. And then you have the discounts that Gamepass gives you.
 

Ozriel

M$FT
So basically there is still ZERO. EVIDENCE ... That sub services are growing the market. Sub services absolutely destroyed the music industry in terms of album sales. I have yet to see a shred of evidence anywhere, that people want to subscribe to a service and then spend MORE money purchasing the same games outside of that sub service. It's a complete baloney analysis backed up by nothing we can see (it was a massively down month overall, and Piscatella is talking about growing the market?) and anecdotal evidence on this very board backs up the idea of not buying games that are on GP. I've seen several forum members comment about no longer buying games because of GP (sorry don't bookmark the posts but if you read this board enough I know you've seen it) but I cannot recall a single person saying "I've signed up to GP and I am now buying more games than ever!"

I don’t think you understand what Matt is saying in the OP.

Of course, many are choosing to play on Gamepass instead of buying the game outright. And that’s fine. That’s just migrating existing fanbase from one system to another.
What the tweets in the OP are talking about is that well received games on Gamepass get enough word of mouth and exposure boost that it brings in new customers.

Your other points are similarly misleading. You think Forza Horizon 5 didn’t do well at retail because it didn’t outsell Spiderman Miles Morales? The default game that people get when they pick up a PS5? The game based on an extremely popular IP?


Not sure if true considering Need for Speed passed the 150 million units sold almost 10 years ago, Trackmania (now a F2P) has a huge userbase, GT Sport achieved 8 million units sold like 2 years ago and there may be some other one I may miss, like one something from Codemasters or Sega. Publishers aren't very transparent with racing game sales so it's difficult to know or estimate their sales specially in console. But at least regarding reviews yes, MK and Forza/Horizon are the most popular ones now.

‘popular’ as in today, not ancient history. I didn’t mention ‘successful’ or any other thing that relates to lifetime franchise sales.
 

cireza

Member
Played a ton of games I would have never touched without Gamepass. It is as simple as that. Then you talk about it to friends, they get Gamepass or buy the game etc...
 

kingfey

Banned
Wait until people find out you can't view/modify game files installed via the Xbox/MS PC stores. This also means no mods and the save system is super inconvenient.
They are overhauling the store. Still, I wouldn't bother with it. They need complete overhaul.
 

MacReady13

Member
I totally agree.

Here's the thing though. I'm no longer worried about that. I don't believe game subscription will be more than a niche in the over-all gaming consumption. The greater majority will not find game subscription compelling. It's just so different how we consume video games from other types of media. There are millions out there who play the same game for months if not years with occasional game or two from time to time. It's not the amount of games, but it's simply want you want to play. And there are those who simply don't have the time to play games to find paying $10-$15 per month worth it.


I agree 100%. The games that would be perfect for these subscription are those game that need exposure. Those that are not guaranteed million sellers but the publisher or devs are confident on the fun factor and quality of the games.

MS puts their first party day 1 to try to increase sub number. Sony doesn't have to follow suit. There are different other ways to do that than cannibalizing your millions of sales. And in the process, they don't have to reformulate the monetization of their games just to fit in a sub service.
Perfectly said and 100% agree with all of this.
 

zaanan

Banned
The market is big enough. If you like GP fine, no worries, but no one needs to grow the market more. unless you are a shill shareholder.

Us fans should enjoy games and service offerings, without worrying about the market growing.
But then we would have nothing to argue about, and you would be out of a job, sir! ;)
 
Feels like we’re seconds away from someone using the phrase ‘fake news’ :messenger_tears_of_joy: It’s like the flat earth society in here sometimes…

I don’t get the rush to object. Even if not 100% provable and just a well informed opinion/take from an industry expert, this is a positive story/trend for gaming, which we all love? I think?

Some people are way too invested in ‘winning’ the console war, when they could just be enjoying the current strength of the gaming industry, and the amazing output from developers (and unprecedented value in Game Pass terms).
We object because we only have his word for it.

Especially since his wording is entirely undefined. He needs to tell us exactly what he mean by "growing the market". Otherwise it would just be clickbating.

It is only good news if we actually know what the news is. As it were he gave us his conclusion without telling us what its basis is.

If you want to cheer because you are used to MS making shit up, and thus is happy for NPD to do the same, all the power to you. The rest of us would rather understand what he really meant rather than vague terms.
 

kingfey

Banned
We object because we only have his word for it.

Especially since his wording is entirely undefined. He needs to tell us exactly what he mean by "growing the market". Otherwise it would just be clickbating.

It is only good news if we actually know what the news is. As it were he gave us his conclusion without telling us what its basis is.

If you want to cheer because you are used to MS making shit up, and thus is happy for NPD to do the same, all the power to you. The rest of us would rather understand what he really meant rather than vague terms.
Now are we arguing with the wording?
 

Flutta

Banned
Gamepass is breaking people's mind lately. I worry about gaffers here, when the next numbers is announced this January. We might have a huge mental breakdown crisis.
Bruv the only one who's mind is breaking is yours... if we go by the content and number of post you've submitted so far :messenger_tears_of_joy:.
At least i hope you get paid for your service.
 

kingfey

Banned
I don't believe game subscription will be more than a niche in the over-all gaming consumption.
In the age of mtx, people will sub to a service which gives them more games.

We have games like battlefield 2042, which has mtx in it. A single game, which costs 60$ to play it, and then charges mtx to unlock other contents.

People will migrate to service subs, since that is much better value for them. Play the game they are looking in the service, and try other games.

Now publishers are trying to put nft on their games. How long will you think people will have to put up with these behaviors, especially when the major issue right now is unfinished games, and buggy releases.
 

kingfey

Banned
Bruv the only one who's mind is breaking is yours... if we go by the content and number of post you've submitted so far :messenger_tears_of_joy:.
At least i hope you get paid for your service.
You are right. I am going crazy, by how much shit you guys keep spouting nonstop, everytime gamepass has a success.

Even this thread is showing it very clearly.
 

kingfey

Banned
Of course...lower barriers of entry and money saved for the consumer is good for the overall market...economics 101.
People like to bring about lost sales from these copies, but ignore the effect timed exclusive have on these copies.

These service gives access, to people who normally won't spend alot of money on games. Having these people get in to gaming, benefits the game market. More customers, more future sales. Everyone is Winning in this case. Developers are getting upfront money, subscribers are getting contents, service owners are getting new subscribers. Win win.
 

MacReady13

Member
Played a ton of games I would have never touched without Gamepass. It is as simple as that. Then you talk about it to friends, they get Gamepass or buy the game etc...
See this is what I don't get- great; you played a tonne of games with Game Pass that you'd have never thought about playing. Thing is, I did the exact same thing (without obviously having the full version to play) when companies released demos of games! I tried them, for free, then decided based on that sample whether the game was worth purchasing or not. And I didn't spend however much per month to play these games! I don't get the appeal at all!
Funny how when the PS4 1st came out there were all these indie games which sold big and there was no talk of not finding these games without a sub service, and now that Xbox has a sub service this seems to be the ONLY way many would ever play these games!!!
 
See this is what I don't get- great; you played a tonne of games with Game Pass that you'd have never thought about playing. Thing is, I did the exact same thing (without obviously having the full version to play) when companies released demos of games! I tried them, for free, then decided based on that sample whether the game was worth purchasing or not. And I didn't spend however much per month to play these games! I don't get the appeal at all!
Funny how when the PS4 1st came out there were all these indie games which sold big and there was no talk of not finding these games without a sub service, and now that Xbox has a sub service this seems to be the ONLY way many would ever play these games!!!
Demos are rare these days and if you like a demo you have to buy the game. With Gamepass, you just have it.
 

A.Romero

Member
I think it's just common sense that it grows the market on account of being one more option for people that have different patterns and wouldn't be playing as much or at least the same games without GP.

It's not rocket sicence.

If it means having a higher revenue for publishers or not... That's a different matter.
 

KAL2006

Banned
I honestly wonder how Gamepass saves people money. Obviously using promotional offers I understand. I'm talking about regular Gamepass. Is Gamepass only for hardcore gamers who play 40 games a year minimum. Games are not like music and TV where you can binge through a ton of content. A game like Monster Hunter World I spent probably 200 hours. And that's just a single game.

Monster Hunter World took me around 6 months to get the most out of. And that game cost me £40. If I subbed that, it would be around £70 for 6 months. And after 6 months I wouldn't own it and would have to continue to sub on Gamepass. Where as my physical copy of Monster Hunter World I bought for £40 I can resell for £25.

Like seriously do you guys just have a ton of time to play that many games, even if I had all the time in the world I don't think I can play that many game to make use of a sub. I have other things in my life. Don't none of you have wives, kids, jobs, other hobbies, family and friends etc. I just can't wrap my head around someone being able to use Gamepass to save money. Hell because I can only play a handful of games a year I always go back and grab games I never got to play before for under £10.
 
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