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Mat Piscatella from NPD: Data still suggest that subscription services like Game Pass are helping grow the overall market

Was anyone expecting Gamepass to destroy a "traditional gaming" market of probably some 250-300 million people in a time when the service only has 20 million subscribers?

20 million was the number of Xbox Live Gold. I'm guessing MS were successful in upconverting their gold customers into gamepass. That $1 conversion must have really worked well.

I wonder if Sony will do the same $1 promotion. That would be 40-50 million instant Spartacus subscriber number.
 

reksveks

Member
physical model has the same DLC/MTX than digital model.
Same as in objects? That's not true cause of the logistics of physical retailers. Its why you might get ingame currency or big dlc like a campaign but you don't get all the skins/characters that you are able to get in digital storefronts.

Same in terms of revenue? I would be interested to see if anyone has released numbers on dlc split via physical vs digital. Thinking about seeing if Cdpr released any numbers.

I don't believe dlc/mtx would have nearly grown as fast if it was limited to physical retailers.
 

ethomaz

Banned
No, it hasn't.
MTX are inherently digital.
Physical MTX like the Strike Commander Speech Pack on floppy disks died a long time ago.
I thinking you are mistaking the game sales model with digital services.

Normally can buy games in two ways (well three now with subs services): physical or digital (well you have digital only games but that is another talk)... that is the model you sell your game.

Now games feature digital MTX, DLC, etc no matter the model.
It is not a inherently of digital model.
 

Stuart360

Member
It might not have a huge effect on big hyped AAA games, but it will def have a help with AA and Indie games. That much is obvious as you will be getting situations of millions of subscribers trying out games they usually wouldnt try, if they had to pay full price for the game.
We have actually seen some Indie devs say that about Gamepass already, and how their sales jumped massively when their game hit Gamepass.
WOM can be a powerful thing.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Same as in objects? That's not true cause of the logistics of physical retailers. Its why you might get ingame currency or big dlc like a campaign but you don't get all the skins/characters that you are able to get in digital storefronts.

Same in terms of revenue? I would be interested to see if anyone has released numbers on dlc split via physical vs digital. Thinking about seeing if Cdpr released any numbers.

I don't believe dlc/mtx would have nearly grown as fast if it was limited to physical retailers.
Same as even buying a physical game you can buy MTX/DLC/ETC.
Even if we don't have games being sold as digital... DLC/MTX should have grow like it grow.
 
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ethomaz

Banned
From a physical retailer? And the same objects/items?
From in-game
How you buy DLC, MTX, in-game purchases doesn't change whatever you buy your game via digital or physical.

DLC, MTX, Loteboxes, in-game purchases were the biggest game market grow in the last decade.
Not the shift from gamers buying game physically to buying games digital.
 
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But digital absolutely grew the market. Here's the history of the market in Germany:

B3Mcpyu.png

The dark colors that start in 2008 are all digital. Revenue tripled since then despite physical being stagnant. That's growth.
Amzing how digital has grown the market. Mindblowing.
Microsoft store on PC must be printing money like crazy.
 
Looks like more personal opinion than a fact without data like always.

What he said is true though and we have already seen that with PS+. Rocket League and Fall Guys were propped up by it.

These subscription service would be a good way to introduce gamers into not so well known games. But it would be unwise for Sony to release their games day 1 on it when they already sell 3-5 million just in the first month.

Interesting indie games. Promising multiplayer games. Even arcade games would be a good day 1 for these subscription services. Games by Housemarque which don't really sell millions on release would be a good candidate for a day 1 release on Spartacus. Sony could shop around 3rd party publishers for those kind of games to release them day 1. Because if they turn out to be good, then the word of mouth would help the game. Mat Piscatella used the word "amplified". What it means is just word of mouth reaching more people about how good the game is.
 

reksveks

Member
From in-game
How you buy DLC, MTX, in-game purchases doesn't change whatever you buy your game via digital or physical.
Okay, now I get your point. Our point about digital growing the market was not limited to the initial distribution channel. Although I still believe that digital has grown full game sales, this is probably within the numbers from Sony supplementary information. I do wonder how many years I would need to go back.
 

Ozriel

M$FT
Exactly he feels that view of amplification is temporary and not a long-term deal.
What you have is a market shift/migration instead of market grow.

Again, What you currently have is migration AND amplification. Until long term when subscription services cover the bulk of the market. At current growth rates, that’s most likely years and years away.
 
It’s an amazing service. Glad to see it’s a net benefit for the industry.

As long as subscription services remain to be not the main way to consume games, I think they would be good addition to the industry. A certain amount of gamers get to try and play games that they never knew they would like which also has the potential to carry positive word of mouth.

With the way we consume games, I don't think subscription services will be prominent than what we have seen with Gold and PS+ numbers. There will be certain percentage of the gaming population who would find subscription services worthwhile, while most will continue to play their favorite MP game for months without having to pay for a subscription service. The habit of the gaming population is broad. But there would certainly be a subset of that population who would find subscription services as worth it.
 

iHaunter

Member
They said Gamepass would destroy traditional gaming. Instead it’s enhancing it and bringing more money across all platforms.
Microsoft hasn't gloated about their Halo Infinite sales numbers, assuming they're non-existent due to GP. I think this strategy will work in-house where GP is directly tied to revenue, I'm not sure how it'll work for 3rd party.
 

kingfey

Banned
Microsoft hasn't gloated about their Halo Infinite sales numbers, assuming they're non-existent due to GP. I think this strategy will work in-house where GP is directly tied to revenue, I'm not sure how it'll work for 3rd party.
Yeah right. Console selling game is nonexistent due to 20m gamepass members.

I wonder, what other stuff would you guys come up with.
 
Agree with Chris.

To be fair though, I don't believe subscription services (Gamepass, also Spartacus) will saturate the gaming industry. They wouldn't be prominent as some other people think they would be. For most people, these services are not worth it, when all they want to play is a certain game for months and months, or doesn't have enough time to play many games to make the sub worth paying.

There is certainly a breadth of gaming habits among the gaming population. And only a subset of that gaming population will find these subscription services worth it.
 
To be fair though, I don't believe subscription services (Gamepass, also Spartacus) will saturate the gaming industry. They wouldn't be prominent as some other people think they would be. For most people, these services are not worth it, when all they want to play is a certain game for months and months, or doesn't have enough time to play many games to make the sub worth paying.

There is certainly a breadth of gaming habits among the gaming population. And only a subset of that gaming population will find these subscription services worth it.
100%

I know several Xbox gamers who only get Game Pass every now and then when a big title comes out to play it and then try out a few others on it.

Other then that they just play their sports titles and some Warzone and wont invest in Game Pass
 

kingfey

Banned
Can you fucking read?
Microsoft hasn't gloated about their Halo Infinite sales numbers, assuming they're non-existent due to GP

Unless I misunderstood your point here.

There is steam, and xbox non gamepass owners. These will bring sales for halo.

Halo is having controversy as of now. I doubt they will share it, until they fix that. MS has been careful about their PR after xbox live.
 

iHaunter

Member
Unless I misunderstood your point here.

There is steam, and xbox non gamepass owners. These will bring sales for halo.

Halo is having controversy as of now. I doubt they will share it, until they fix that. MS has been careful about their PR after xbox live.
Right, I'm saying for first party, because of GP, sales numbers are TIED to GP since most Xbox users will have it. Hence why this GP model MAY not WORK for 3rd PARTY.
 

Three

Member
I mentioned above that this image includes mobile. No need to be salty :messenger_winking:

No you didn't.
You failed to mention this was mostly microtransactions. You tried to paint a picture where digital game sales didn't replace physical but actually grew the market. They didn't. Your original post:


But digital absolutely grew the market. Here's the history of the market in Germany:

B3Mcpyu.png


The dark colors that start in 2008 are all digital. Revenue tripled since then despite physical being stagnant. That's growth.

Would have been helpful to point out that the majority of that bars growth is microtransactions in f2p games like clash of clans and candy crush, no?
The dark colours aren't even all virtual goods and additional content. They include network fees as well .
 

kingfey

Banned
For any people who don't speak German and fall for Bernd Lauert Bernd Lauert 's bullshit image

210319_GME_Zeitstrahl_Entwicklung_Games-Markt_A2_EN-1920x1358.jpg


The app store and android store launched and microtransactions went through the roof. Game purchases dropped.
Everyone has phones. People massive amount of money for mobile games. Certain mobile games have pay to disable ads. So the phone market share will explode, especially when middle age women plays games like candy crash.

Console gamers are primarly teens and millennials. With hardware sales being capped at 120m ps4+55m x1+86m switch+15m ps5+10m xs, 120m steam, etc pc stores/stadia/other cloud systems. they won't be able to match those mobile users. So sales would be less in Germany for console/pc gamers.
 

kingfey

Banned
Right, I'm saying for first party, because of GP, sales numbers are TIED to GP since most Xbox users will have it. Hence why this GP model MAY not WORK for 3rd PARTY.
That is wrong. Most people pay it for 3rd party games (including myself).

You can buy Xbox games for cheap later on, instead of paying 180$ a year to play them.

Its all about those 3rd party games, which people want to play it 1st. Then day1 xbox games.

We saw this with outriders, ascent, mlb the show.
 

DGrayson

Mod Team and Bat Team
Staff Member
The market is big enough. If you like GP fine, no worries, but no one needs to grow the market more. unless you are a shill shareholder.

Us fans should enjoy games and service offerings, without worrying about the market growing.
 

yurinka

Member

I think traditional purchasing isn't going anywhere because people with subscriptions still represent a small part of the global gaming userbase, so the impact sales get from subscriptions is small.

I think Horizon 5 got great sales not because of Game Pass, but because of being the first new AAA Xbox console exclusive after a year or so (had other great stuff but were improved previous gen games, Flight Sim port which isn't very mainstream, smaller stuff like Psychonauts 2, indie timed console exclusives, etc), so many people got thirsty to get a big AAA exclusive, so it would bump Halo and Horizon launch sales above their normal sales.

I think once Xbox users start to get a steady amount of AAA console exclusives during 2022 and 2023 we'll see them getting them from Gamepas and the sales of these games selling less than their previous entries did. But again, a ton of players even in Xbox don't have Game Pass, so they will continue buying games as usual and it won't affect them in a positive or negative way.

I agree on what he says regarding the amplification of feedback: acting as a demo, more people can discover new games thanks to GP or convince them to buy them if they like it, but also their gameplay can make them avoid the game because didn't like it, or maybe because to play the game a few hours was enough for them so don't feel the need to buy them.
 
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iHaunter

Member
That is wrong. Most people pay it for 3rd party games (including myself).

You can buy Xbox games for cheap later on, instead of paying 180$ a year to play them.

Its all about those 3rd party games, which people want to play it 1st. Then day1 xbox games.

We saw this with outriders, ascent, mlb the show.
People almost sometimes forget that you don't own the games either. IDK. I have it for 2 more months, I like it for games I'm never going to buy. But maybe I'm not the main market share. I tend to only play games I know I'm going to buy.
 

mejin

Member
To be fair though, I don't believe subscription services (Gamepass, also Spartacus) will saturate the gaming industry. They wouldn't be prominent as some other people think they would be. For most people, these services are not worth it, when all they want to play is a certain game for months and months, or doesn't have enough time to play many games to make the sub worth paying.

There is certainly a breadth of gaming habits among the gaming population. And only a subset of that gaming population will find these subscription services worth it.

It is definitely a possible scenario. We could say even a positive view of the whole situation. Although, we perfectly know this isn't what MS only wants to achieve cause the service needs to grow and grow to sustain the business and to be profitable.

I think there is an impact on the consumer behaviour and like I said in a previous post: "I find it interesting that this analysis of Piscatella is always and totally limited to the universe of games that come out on GP and sell on other platforms".

I hope for the best, but Matt is talking to fairies here.
 

kingfey

Banned
People almost sometimes forget that you don't own the games either. IDK. I have it for 2 more months, I like it for games I'm never going to buy. But maybe I'm not the main market share. I tend to only play games I know I'm going to buy.
You are the market for gamepass. People who arent going to buy games that much.

Its all about attracting people like you to the service. Once you are comfortable with it, you will start buying games there. I bought alot of games on xbox, despite me being PC gamer. I even had these games on pc.
 

kingfey

Banned
It is definitely a possible scenario. We could say even a positive view of the whole situation. Although, we perfectly know this isn't what MS only wants to achieve cause the service needs to grow and grow to sustain the business and to be profitable.

I think there is an impact on the consumer behaviour and like I said in a previous post: "I find it interesting that this analysis of Piscatella is always and totally limited to the universe of games that come out on GP and sell on other platforms".

I hope for the best, but Matt is talking to fairies here.
Dude has data, and you dont.
Other consoles will be able to sell these games, because everyone has friends from other consoles. Mouth talk usually encourages these people to buy the game.

One key aspect you are ignoring is the exposure. That is what gamepass brings for these games.
 
Would have been helpful to point out that the majority of that bars growth is microtransactions in f2p games like clash of clans and candy crush, no?
The dark colours aren't even all virtual goods and additional content. They include network fees as well .
But that's what digital means. It includes all digital transactions. And why wouldn't network fees count? They're a substantial part of the console business.
 

Leyasu

Banned
Yeh I see that, due to the increased exposure gamepass offers for the games on the service. However I'd expect someone in his position to still be able to provide people with at least a couple of more recent data points to back up his statements.
Isn't NPD data sold?

So perhaps the date he is privy too is also behind a paywall...
 

kingfey

Banned
Would have been helpful to point out that the majority of that bars growth is microtransactions in f2p games like clash of clans and candy crush, no?
The dark colours aren't even all virtual goods and additional content. They include network fees as well .
Any thing that is mtx, dlc, charecters sales are all digital sales.

Look at how much mobile devs charge for ingame items.

Summoners war is an old mobile game, which I used to play. Ingame items cost 20$-100$. People spend $2k a month on that. Some even went as far as $400k in 4 years.
 

reksveks

Member
Will turn this into a graph but seems to be the limit of the sony reports

EK9ftNR.png

IDUoJAg.png

oKjyYEl.png

Not got a lot of time to look at it or explain but this is for full game software sales: trying to figure out the causes is obviously complicated but you can see that physical sales is decline slower than digital, don't unfortunately know anything about full game revenue per phy/digital i don't think.

hZrsvBX.png
 

Three

Member
But that's what digital means. It includes all digital transactions. And why wouldn't network fees count? They're a substantial part of the console business.
Because they also apply to physical purchases and have nothing to do with growing the market through digital sales.
 

Three

Member
Any thing that is mtx, dlc, charecters sales are all digital sales.
Only if you fail to follow the context of the discussion. Somebody said

Digital did not grew the market... it just migrated it.... games brought in Physical form started to be brought in Digital form.
That is what Chris is saying.

Then this graph was provided as a counter argument. Nobody said microtransaction filled f2p mobile games did not grow the market. This graph was presented as digital sales growing game sales. It isn't.
 
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