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[Augusto Pinochet]

Looks like more personal opinion than a fact without data like always.

"Data still suggest that subscription services like Game Pass are helping grow the overall market"

If you watch closely youll see that "data" is what prompted his statement..his opinion reading the DATA is that its not hurting sales and helps growth.

He might be lying to further his Xbox supremacy agenda though

 

[reksveks]

Same data these analysts pull out to make digital look like its more of the market

very confused by the sentence? do you not think digital is the bigger distribution method in the console market?

I'm quite sure, also, that if people really wanted to see the data, I'm sure NPD would be happy to accept them as new clients and present their findings on the condition that an NDA is signed.

I don't get how people can think through things logically.

No. Where are you getting CoD data from?

Yeah, why I asked him if they are referring the new UK data where Xbox was 43% of Vanguard sales, PS was 57% (PC not included). There was the digital split of 62%:38%.

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/artic...duty-dominate-november-2021-uk-monthly-charts

That ratio of Xbox to PS is 1.32:1

 

[Papacheeks]

With how bad pc game pass is I would love to see Matt’s data on the split between pc and console.
But I highly doubt he has access to that data as MS doesn’t share that I believe with outside companies. I believe developers have access to some of it for tracking.

anyone have any clue on this?

 

[KAL2006]

I think Gamepass is great for multiplayer games especially. However big AAA single player games I can't see how the developer will get money. Instead of purchasing a game like Spiderman, I'd just get a Gamepass equivalent and play the game quick as possible and be done with it making me spend less. However a big multiplayer game like Monster which I'd be playing for 6 months straight, if would actually be cheaper for me to purchase the game that subscribe to Gamepass. As Gamepass price for 6 months is equivalent to a full purchase, except with a full purchase you can at least resell the game or keep the game forever and not be stuck having to pay a sub just to carry on playing the game. As Microsoft have more multiplayer focus with games like Forza and Halo, the GaaS definitely makes more sense with Gamepass with addition to 3rd party deals for AA and indie games that probably don't sell much.

 

[GHG]

Some of you people sound like religious extremists. Is their an automatic switch that turns on in your brain when anything positive about MS comes out?

Like what on planet earth does this guy gain from lieing about subscription services?

Show me where I said he was lying.

Don't be so quick to put your clown shoes on, explain to me what the problem is with asking for data/evidence. Maybe next time digital foundry do an analysis piece they should omit all their data/evidence since you'll be perfectly fine with it?

These guys are aproaching 9/11 Twoofer levels.i like them.

Says the person who posts this in the very same thread despite the data we have access to not supporting your argument in the slightest:

The future of gaming business is subscription based. Its just a matter of time.
Msoft are going to be the top dog in that regard for sure.
Only Nintendo will keep selling physical because their fanbase is more oldschool gmers and will demand it.
Sony will be caught in the middle of it all without being able to lead neither space physical nor digital.

"9/11 twoofer" indeed.

 

[Goalus]

very confused by the sentence? do you not think digital is the bigger distribution method in the console market?

We all know very well that the UK boxed sales are the only viable metric to measure success.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

They said Gamepass would destroy traditional gaming. Instead it’s enhancing it and bringing more money across all platforms.

Was anyone expecting Gamepass to destroy a "traditional gaming" market of probably some 250-300 million people in a time when the service only has 20 million subscribers?

 

[Tiago Rodrigues]

The future of gaming business is subscription based. Its just a matter of time.
Msoft are going to be the top dog in that regard for sure.
Only Nintendo will keep selling physical because their fanbase is more oldschool gmers and will demand it.
Sony will be caught in the middle of it all without being able to lead neither space physical nor digital.

Yup...all the data so far regarding this gen shows how much they have to worry at Sony.

/s

 

[Augusto Pinochet]

very confused by the sentence? do you not think digital is the bigger distribution method in the console market?


I don't get how people can think through things logically.


Yeah, why I asked him if they are referring the new UK data where Xbox was 43% of Vanguard sales, PS was 57% (PC not included). There was the digital split of 62%:38%.

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/artic...duty-dominate-november-2021-uk-monthly-charts

That ratio of Xbox to PS is 1.32:1

Whats the ratio of hardware install base?

 

[reksveks]

Whats the ratio of hardware install base?

As mentioned in a previous comment, I don't know sadly for the UK or Globally actually?

 

[Bernd Lauert]

Was anyone expecting Gamepass to destroy a "traditional gaming" market of probably some 250-300 million people in a time when the service only has 20 million subscribers?

A lot of people claimed that UK physical sales were proof that Gamepass is killing software sales on Xbox.

 

[Augusto Pinochet]

As mentioned in a previous comment, I don't know sadly for the UK or Globally actually?

To make the comparison relative to the 1.32/1 ratio of the CoD V sales

 

[MOTM]

Show me where I said he was lying.

Don't be so quick to put your clown shoes on, explain to me what the problem is with asking for data/evidence. Maybe next time digital foundry do an analysis piece they should omit all their data/evidence since you'll be perfectly fine with it?



Says the person who posts this in the very same thread despite the data we have access to not supporting your argument in the slightest:



"9/11 twoofer" indeed.

You’re not fooling anybody here, you’re implying what he’s saying isn’t true until you see the "data".

How about you take out your credit card and sign up to NPD, that way you can sleep at night knowing that Matt doesn’t have a gun pointed to his head by MS.

 

[Sanepar]

"Data still suggest that subscription services like Game Pass are helping grow the overall market"

If you watch closely youll see that "data" is what prompted his statement..his opinion reading the DATA is that its not hurting sales and helps growth.

He might be lying to further his Xbox supremacy agenda though

The data we have is Capcom and Ubisoft with NUMBERS showing their games are selling less on Xbox and MORE on other platforms.

 

[reksveks]

To make the comparison relative to the 1.32/1 ratio of the CoD V sales

Yeah, thats the comparison to make.

 

[GHG]

You’re not fooling anybody here, you’re implying what he’s saying isn’t true until you see the "data".

How about you take out your credit card and sign up to NPD, that way you can sleep at night knowing that Matt doesn’t have a gun pointed to his head by MS.

Well done drawing conclusions that don't exist.

I know this might be shocking to a group of people who were more than willing to run with a bunch of misinformation and falsehoods prior to the release of the current gen consoles but seeking evidence and facts is important for a number of reasons.

Data being provided with statements helps because:

1. It gives weight to said statements
2. Data can be interpreted in a number of ways
3. Occasionally, incorrect conclusions can be drawn from data

The onus is in him to provide the data if he's going to make the statements, not me. Also having the data allows people to have a more in depth discussion on the subject. Right now it's just a case of "believe him" which isn't a healthy mindset in the slightest.

 

[reksveks]

The data we have is Capcom and Ubisoft with NUMBERS showing their games are selling less on Xbox and MORE on other platforms.

- Capcom shows only physical shipments on a regular basis unless you are referring to an adhoc leak of a monster hunter game or something
- Ubisoft rev split for H1 2021 is 34:19 (PS to Xbox) the issue is as mention, no-one knows the consoles splits for sure.

re: ubisoft and other publishers, are you expecting parity in total game sales? cause that's wildly unrealistic.

 

[MOTM]

Well done drawing conclusions that don't exist.

I know this might be shocking to a group of people who were more than willing to run with a bunch of misinformation and falsehoods prior to the release of the current gen consoles but seeking evidence and facts is important for a number of reasons.

Data being provided with statements helps because:

1. It gives weight to said statements
2. Data can be interpreted in a number of ways
3. Occasionally, incorrect conclusions can be drawn from data

The onus is in him to provide the data if he's going to make the statements, not me. Also having the data allows people to have a more in depth discussion on the subject. Right now it's just a case of "believe him" which isn't a healthy mindset in the slightest.

Yeah because you go around asking experts for the official data for every single single statement you see or hear in every single field every single day, in every media and in real life.

No you don’t, unless there is a clear or reasonable reason to be dubious of it.

I know you know exactly what I meant so I’m not pursuing this further.

 

[ethomaz]

Seems like Chris doesn’t agree with him…

 

[CitizenZ]

Two ways to push you towards a service:

1. Raise the base price- see SE
2. Never drop prices unless during sales- see MS

I would only pay for a service, as i did with EA play, if you got smoking deal. Think it was $30 for the yr. and then done.

 

[GHG]

Yeah because you go around asking experts for the official data for every single single statement you see or hear in every single field every single day, in every media and in real life.

No you don’t, unless there is a clear or reasonable reason to be dubious of it.

I know you know exactly what I meant so I’m not pursuing this further.

Actually I do, especially in my own field of work because it's very much black and white. I need to see a method working in practice, if not it's pointless and can lead to a lot of wasted time. I also do for one of my hobbies which is investing, analysts say all kinds of shit, it's their job after all - to have an opinion. However if they are not backing that up with anything tangible and just say "buy xxxx stock" or "sell xxxx stock" then I'm not going to take much notice.

Seems like Chris doesn’t agree with him…

Oh no, somebody wants to discuss it and has a different viewpoint. Get him!

 

[Bernd Lauert]

Seems like Chris doesn’t agree with him…

It's not really a matter of opinion. Digital grew the overall market a lot. Same could happen with subscriptions.

 

[Zok310]

I come from a reality where when people bring up data and facts they present the data and facts for all to see. This is just some fat white guy with a dog on twitter.....

 

[ethomaz]

It's not really a matter of opinion. Digital grew the overall market a lot. Same could happen with subscriptions.

Digital did not grew the market... it just migrated it.... games brought in Physical form started to be brought in Digital form.
That is what Chris is saying.

He believes the same as Gamepass... games brought in "normal" way will start to be played via Gamepass... that is not market grow but market migration.

 

[ManaByte]

I come from a reality where when people bring up data and facts they present the data and facts for all to see. This is just some fat white guy with a dog on twitter.....

He’s pretty much the only source for NPD numbers that result in the monthly NPD thread here while you’re just a nobody on a video game forum on the internet.

 

[Goalus]

I come from a reality where when people bring up data and facts they present the data and facts for all to see. This is just some fat white guy with a dog on twitter.....

What relevance does his skin color have in this context?

 

[Jaybe]

“You do you”, from someone that is supposed to be a lead market analyst in the industry. Emblematic.

 

[reksveks]

Digital did not grew the market... it just shifted it.
That is what Chris is saying.

Need to define 'the market'

HIs comment was firstly we saw/heard the digital sales grew physical games then that effect on physical game sales disappeared. Digital might have grown the total market but its hard to break down the causes of the gaming growth.

That might be true of gamepass.

 

[Aguero9320]

Feels like we’re seconds away from someone using the phrase ‘fake news’ It’s like the flat earth society in here sometimes…

I don’t get the rush to object. Even if not 100% provable and just a well informed opinion/take from an industry expert, this is a positive story/trend for gaming, which we all love? I think?

Some people are way too invested in ‘winning’ the console war, when they could just be enjoying the current strength of the gaming industry, and the amazing output from developers (and unprecedented value in Game Pass terms).

 

[ethomaz]

Need to define 'the market'

HIs comment was firstly we saw/heard the digital sales grew physical games then that effect on physical game sales disappeared. Digital might have grown the total market but its hard to break down the causes of the gaming growth.

That might be true of gamepass.

Market is the gaming market... everything consumer sales moved by game industry.

Digital grow did no grow the game overall market...
Digital grow happened in detriment of physical.
That is why I used the word "shift" but maybe there is a better word for that.

Now MTX and GASS model did grow the market but that is unrelated to how you sell your media (digital vs physical).

 

[Goalus]

“You do you”, from someone that is supposed to be a lead market analyst in the industry. Emblematic.

"Lead market analyst", really?
I just learned he is

just some fat white guy with a dog on twitter.....

 

[Papacheeks]

It's not really a matter of opinion. Digital grew the overall market a lot. Same could happen with subscriptions.

Hence the word could.

Subscription are a growth market, but the issues is when looking at where people spend their money. Right now if you were to look at the tv/film landscape its really insane. Hardly anyone is buying physical, but places like amazon, vudu, apple, google have tons of sales for digital movies.

Mainly because of services where a movie might have been on there one month, then the purchase option comes up because its not watchable free via the service, so said person buys it because they want to watch it.


Some of that def is happening, but right now on such a small scale. Mainly the biggest issue in gaming that differs from things like movies is playtime and things like F2P. No sub is required for those and games like warzone, fortnite, now halo infinite take up a shit ton of realestate among player time.

So when people buy games a lot of the time its when they are heavily discounted, or they are big games that get promoted.

Would love to see digital break downs on Xbox store, PSN and Switch.

 

[reksveks]

Digital grow did no grow the game overall market...
Digital grow was reached with the harm of physical.
That is why I used the word "shift" but maybe there is a better word for that.

Again Chris is talking about physical retailers.

I don't know how you can easily rule out the growth of gaming revenue not being associated to digital distribution (it's also probably good to figure out if we are including mtx/DLC in the conversation, I don't know if you can have the growth without that revenue which is very much digital first)

 

[Ozriel]

Is this the first time Matt Piscella’s credibility is being challenged here?

Seems like Chris doesn’t agree with him…

You should have read those tweets more carefully. It’s Less about ‘not agreeing’ with him and more about him questioning how long the bump will last for. Certainly, there’s nothing in Chris’s comments that is even remotely skeptical about the data behind Matt’s assumptions.

These tweets actually confirm that there’s hard data behind Matt’s analysis.

 

[ethomaz]

Again Chris is talking about physical retailers.

I don't know how you can easily rule out the growth of gaming revenue not being associated to digital distribution (it's also probably good to figure out if we are including mtx/DLC in the conversation, I don't know if you can have the growth without that revenue which is very much digital first)

That is base of the physical model.
Digital model didn't grow the gaming revenue.

You are using MTX/DLC example that indeed grew the market but MTX/DLC exists with physical model.

Digital model just made people shift from Physical model.
At the same time it shifted good part of the revenue from retail to publishers.

 

[kingfey]

The answer is very clear, but Gaffers here is still on denial.

Its all boil down to marketing.
You dont buy a game that you havent heard of. Gamepass is a marketing exposure for these games. Every time a game is announced on twitter, you get free exposure. You also get exposure to 20m on xbox. People on other consoles will hear your game, because it was on gamepass. And bam. you get higher sales for your games.

Anyone who is still arguing, doesn't know how marketing works.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

Digital did not grew the market... it just migrated it.... games brought in Physical form started to be brought in Digital form.
That is what Chris is saying.

He believes the same as Gamepass... games brought in "normal" way will start to be played via Gamepass... that is not market grow but market migration.

But digital absolutely grew the market. Here's the history of the market in Germany:

The dark colors that start in 2008 are all digital. Revenue tripled since then despite physical being stagnant. That's growth.

 

[reksveks]

That is base of the physical model.
Digital model didn't grow the gaming revenue.

You are using MTX/DLC example that indeed grew the market but MTX/DLC exists with physical model.

Digital model just made people shift from Physical model.
At the same time it shifted good part of the revenue from retail to publishers.

Not sure that's the case.

The increased convenience of digital yes convinced some previously physical buyers to go digital. I think it also increased the frequency of purchases for those users aka grew the market. It also made it easier for new users to buy games so grew the market there.

Do you believe that dlc/mtx would have the same revenue if people were buying gift cards in retail stores?

 

[MonarchJT]

Show me where I said he was lying.

Don't be so quick to put your clown shoes on, explain to me what the problem is with asking for data/evidence. Maybe next time digital foundry do an analysis piece they should omit all their data/evidence since you'll be perfectly fine with it?



Says the person who posts this in the very same thread despite the data we have access to not supporting your argument in the slightest:



"9/11 twoofer" indeed.

the problem with some of you seem to be that you guys ask data's and real proof just when Ms involved ...in some other cases it's Enough to say Cerny magic.

On topic: it's clear that Ms have a success in their hands, they know it and even the competition knows it so we see Sony begin to review its position and begin to reinvigorate its subscription service. I'm happy for the industry

 

[kingfey]

With how bad pc game pass is I would love to see Matt’s data on the split between pc and console.
But I highly doubt he has access to that data as MS doesn’t share that I believe with outside companies. I believe developers have access to some of it for tracking.

anyone have any clue on this?

ms store on pc is just garbage.

 

[Ozriel]

Digital did not grew the market... it just migrated it.... games brought in Physical form started to be brought in Digital form.
That is what Chris is saying.

He believes the same as Gamepass... games brought in "normal" way will start to be played via Gamepass... that is not market grow but market migration.

That’s…not what Chris is saying. At all. And not what that discussion was about.
What you’ve described above is basically what’s happening now when GAF users play Halo Infinite via Gamepass vs a $60 purchase, and has never been described as ‘amplification’.
what they’re talking about is subscription services helping to convince more people (other than the migrated) to buy well received games. basically growing the pie, or ‘amplification’.
Chris is saying that he feels this will only hold true as long as a large portion of gamers are not on subscription services, and that it’s very possible this impact will fade in the long term.

 

[ethomaz]

But digital absolutely grew the market. Here's the history of the market in Germany:

The dark colors that start in 2008 are all digital. Revenue tripled since then despite physical being stagnant. That's growth.

If you took your time to read the research related to that picture you will know that the grow is attributed to "in-game and in-app purchases" and not to the shift to digital model.

 

[ethomaz]

That’s…not what Chris is saying. At all. And not what that discussion was about.
What you’ve described above is basically what’s happening now when GAF users play Halo Infinite via Gamepass vs a $60 purchase, and has never been described as ‘amplification’.
what they’re talking about is subscription services helping to convince more people (other than the migrated) to buy well received games. basically growing the pie, or ‘amplification’.
Chris is saying that he feels this will only hold true as long as a large portion of gamers are not on subscription services, and that it’s very possible this impact will fade in the long term.

Exactly he feels that view of amplification is temporary and not a long-term deal.
What you have is a market shift/migration instead of market grow.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

If you took your time to read the research related to that picture you will know that the grow is attributed to "in-game and in-app purchases" and not to the shift to digital model.

That's literally part of the digital model. That's why something like 80% of gaming revenue is digital now.

Though that graph might not fit this discussion because it includes mobile phones, so we don't know pure console digital revenue from that.

 

[ethomaz]

Not sure that's the case.

The increased convenience of digital yes convinced some previously physical buyers to go digital. I think it also increased the frequency of purchases for those users aka grew the market. It also made it easier for new users to buy games so grew the market there.

Do you believe that dlc/mtx would have the same revenue if people were buying gift cards in retail stores?

I believe DLC/MTX grew should happen no matter the game model was physical or digital... physical model has the same DLC/MTX than digital model.

 

[Topher]

That sounds a lot like "word of mouth" helps promote games, but he doesn't go into detail as to what this "amplification" really is.

 

[megreotsugua]

Just like how PS+ have helped many games to be known and be successful. Rocket League and Fall Guys were amplified by a subscription service.

But that doesn't mean that Sony have to give their game day 1 on their Spartacus service. Games that already sell 3-5 million on the first month doesn't have to release on the service. But games that do need some advertisement and engagement would be wise to be released day 1.

I'm guessing many interesting indie games will be released day 1 on subscription service, as well as promising multiplayer games. These services do have a the potential to amplify a negative outlook on a not so interesting game e.g. Destruction Allstars.

 

[kingfey]

The data we have is Capcom and Ubisoft with NUMBERS showing their games are selling less on Xbox and MORE on other platforms.

Yes the games which PlayStation have more followers in japan, where xbox doesnt have a million console there.

Japanese games tend to go to PlayStation, because of japan.

Ubisoft on other hand, is expected. They dont have steam, so its PlayStation vs Xbox. And I give this to playstation.

 

[ethomaz]

That's literally part of the digital model. That's why something like 80% of gaming revenue is digital now.

Though that graph might not fit this discussion because it includes mobile phones, so we don't know pure console digital revenue from that.

It is literally part of both models.
In-game purchases exists for physical too.

 

[Goalus]

I believe DLC/MTX grew should happen no matter the game model was physical or digital... physical model has the same DLC/MTX than digital model.

No, it hasn't.
MTX are inherently digital.
Physical MTX like the Strike Commander Speech Pack on floppy disks died a long time ago.