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[assurdum]

It's only me who would like to slap his face when releases such stupid predictions without any kind of logic?

 

[Swift_Star]

I listened to the podcast. It was a longer discussion than this spicy headline of Sony cant compete and will be gone in 10 years.

I'll expand:
He also said that Sony is resting on the massive leads they built up in other territories US & UK (2:1), Middle East (10:1), etc. Sony views XBox as an anomaly and only US centric.

Where they will be in trouble is in 10 years, as there will be no need for consoles and they aren't positioned well for the future as they are reliant on consoles and have some good IP, but not enough content to fill a GamePass type service (primary driver for MS acquisition of Activision - duh).

One interesting other tidbit was he fel that Amazon will be a huge player in the future once consoles go away because their infrastructure, etc. is already built to handle it. Its also who Microsoft is most scared of. (Which back up Phil's comments about XBox's true competition).

Pachter actually came off decent and relatable. It was an enjoyable podcast and def not console fanboy flame war commentary. Check it out if interested in hearing for yourself.

He’s wrong anyways.

 

[assurdum]

I listened to the podcast. It was a longer discussion than this spicy headline of Sony cant compete and will be gone in 10 years.

I'll expand:
He also said that Sony is resting on the massive leads they built up in other territories US & UK (2:1), Middle East (10:1), etc. Sony views XBox as an anomaly and only US centric.

Where they will be in trouble is in 10 years, as there will be no need for consoles and they aren't positioned well for the future as they are reliant on consoles and have some good IP, but not enough content to fill a GamePass type service (primary driver for MS acquisition of Activision - duh).

One interesting other tidbit was he fel that Amazon will be a huge player in the future once consoles go away because their infrastructure, etc. is already built to handle it. Its also who Microsoft is most scared of. (Which back up Phil's comments about XBox's true competition).

Pachter actually came off decent and relatable. It was an enjoyable podcast and def not console fanboy flame war commentary. Check it out if interested in hearing for yourself.

I need to ask to Pachter: from when the Bethesda and Activision offers it's so attractive for the customers; many if not most of their games, sold below their expectations outside 3 or 4 notorious IPs. And why a subscription service with their games will kill the playstation sales? Seems so irrational.

 

[Dick Jones]

Pc, xcloud and their console. Unlike Sony, which is restricted to their console for day1 games, and pc games are roulette chance as of now.
MS is ready for the future, and their titles will reach alot of gamers, while Sony is limited to their console, unless they change their practices. This will have huge implication on next gen, if Xcloud improves fast, Windows store improves, and PC steam gets a lot of players. Sony will not be able to compete with that.
If Sony does day1, then they can challenge MS on the pc ground.

For their studios, MS has PC games. Elder scrolls and call of duty. Both zenimax and Activision/blizzard are PC publishers. Add that to their day1 pc games, and the gap between Sony and MS in that market is huge.

Xcloud also brings cloud gaming in to the table, but on another level. All day1 xbox+zenimax+activision/blizzard would be available through cloud. Meaning you dont need a console at all. If Smart tvs have xcloud, then you can potentially see the numbers MS will get from that section.

In short term, MS is proof future for their gaming division, while Sony is still pro consoles, and little bit dips on PC section. That $76b is putting them in a good spot. This is without gamepass. 3 years ago, MS had nothing, and now they have 30 studios firing contents for them, and 2 other systems ready to receive those contents.


Take these points as future investment.

So it's on less systems.

 

[Swift_Star]

He's not wrong here? When he said that? Don't know. But I know that Playstation already isn't what it used to be. Patchter were spot on this one.

Sony are positioning themselves to fight a war that they can't really win. Instead of fight a war that they already are defeated, they should focus on what they are strong and let the services providers do their thing.

Even now I'm baffled on how much they paid for Bungie. They don't have nothing that pays that price.

I can understand MS pay $70 Billion for Activision to keep it multiplataform. Microsoft's consoles will never sell more than what they achieved with Xbox 360. But they also have Windows to keep it filled with games. They have more to gain in a multiplataform ecosystem. Sony, meanwhile does not. In short term they will win some bucks. But how much will it cost to the brand?

I mean... I'm considered myself a hadcore Playstation fan. Even now I have my PS1, PS2, PS3, PSV and my PS4. But Sony make it really easy for me to just ignore totally the PS5.


Well... how mainstream is that? Will it have the same market penetration as any console? It is an interesting accessory. But that's all for now. In the future it can really be mainstream. But it's not like you can't have the same experience elsewhere.

Fanboys are amusing.

 

[kingfey]

So it's on less systems.

how is 3 systems less?

 

[Dick Jones]

how is 3 systems less?

Well when the publishers originally put games on 4 systems:
1) PC
2) Xbox
3) Nintendo
4) Playstation

4>3
And that's being generous calling Xcloud its own platform

 

[Cyber_hunter026]

It's pachter, nuff said.

 

[kingfey]

Well when the publishers originally put games on 4 systems:
1) PC
2) Xbox
3) Nintendo
4) Playstation

4>3
And that's being generous calling Xcloud its own platform

Most of bethesda/blizzard/activision games isnt on Switch. That is 3 platforms. Plus call of duty would be supported on playstation. So your point here is useless.

Xcloud is its own platform. You need an internet to play those games. I can play it through android tv.


MS with their own publishers have access to Xcloud, pc and their xbox.
Playstation/switch users have PC. That is if you hate xbox so much, that you dont want to buy xsx or xss.

Xcloud is for people who cant afford Gaming pc, and want to play through cloud gaming. This will be a hit, once cloud gaming issues gets fixed. Smart tvs are also accelerating this process. You dont even need to play it using your phone.

 

[OmegaSupreme]

Most of bethesda/blizzard/activision games isnt on Switch. That is 3 platforms. Plus call of duty would be supported on playstation. So your point here is useless.

Xcloud is its own platform. You need an internet to play those games. I can play it through android tv.


MS with their own publishers have access to Xcloud, pc and their xbox.
Playstation/switch users have PC. That is if you hate xbox so much, that you dont want to buy xsx or xss.

Xcloud is for people who cant afford Gaming pc, and want to play through cloud gaming. This will be a hit, once cloud gaming issues gets fixed. Smart tvs are also accelerating this process. You dont even need to play it using your phone.

Why are we still pretending xcloud is remotely viable at this point? It's an addition to gamepass. Nothing more.

 

[itsjustJEFF]

Like someone said, that's definitely a possibility if Playstation does nothing and just sits on their hands.

 

[Dick Jones]

Why are we still pretending xcloud is remotely viable at this point? It's an addition to gamepass. Nothing more.

It's a new system haven't you heard. Like Nintendo making Mario 64 available on a number of systems like the Switch and Nintendo Online

 

[jonnyp]

Still cannot believe people actually pay this guy a salary.

 

[kingfey]

Why are we still pretending xcloud is remotely viable at this point? It's an addition to gamepass. Nothing more.

Why are you downplaying the service? I showed you prime example of that service working on smart tv. Yes, it is viable. Its viable to those who cant afford to spend money on multiple consoles.

 

[The Alien]

I keep hearing how consoles will go away...but we never sold as many consoles are right now overall.

Is there any indication sales will drop of a cliff?

Hey....Pachter was speaking 10-15 years out as streaming tech keeps improving....which is how Amazin is set up to be a key player.

I think console-less gaming is inevitable.
Those wheels have already started turning. Early, but turning.

 

[ReBurn]

6G Wireless PSVR says otherwise.

What if 6G Wireless PSVR is Sony's Sega moment?

I mean, it won't be. But what....if?

 

[kingfey]

I think console-less gaming is inevitable.
Those wheels have already started turning. Early, but turning.

Technology is evolving at a rapid speed, so is gaming. Digital games were hard 15 years ago. Now, we are comfortable downloading 200gb games easily. It was a matter of time, before someone capitalizing these tools.

Main problem right now is input lag. Once that issue gets fixed, Cloud gaming would be everywhere.

 

[RPSleon]

Christ is this guy still around?

For years hes been saying stupid shit. Why are people giving him a playform still?

 

[Spitfire098]

I wonder if their is an over lap of users who agree with Patcher's take and users who were all in on the PS5 fud leading up to its launch?

 

[Ribi]

Is there a website somewhere where I can see Patchers predictions? He's been going for over a decade of knowing nothing yet having articles being written about his predictions only for no one to fact check him

 

[TheGodfather07]

Is there a website somewhere where I can see Patchers predictions? He's been going for over a decade of knowing nothing yet having articles being written about his predictions only for no one to fact check him

Literally the opposite happens of his predictions. Its not just a joke people make. It's true. He has never predicted anything right.

 

[John Wick]

Pachter.

So the opposite will happen

Exactly! Probably the most useless person at predicting future trends!

 

[Mabdia]

Fanboys are amusing.

Haven't you ignored me?

what a bunch of nonsense

OK! You proved your point.

If there is one 1 thing Sony has advantage, it's the gamers field. MS is a corporation. Sony doesn't have the same power as MS. So gamers will always rally behind the little guy. Then there is the generation were those gamers grow up with Sony systems. Ps1-ps2 were big.

Sony can afford to make stupid mistakes like ps3, but MS cant. Xbox one destroyed their reputation. To the point, where people forgot about ring of death.

Until MS can recover their identity, they pose no threat to MS, even with gamepass.

MS money won't matter, until they can produce iconic SP games. Sony have those ready.

Short term I think that it is a really good strategy. The problem is in the long run. But I don't know if gamers will always run for the little guy. We can use Dreamcast as an example. Such amazing hardware but a lot of wrong decisions make Sega leave the console market.

I totally agree with you that Sony can take some stupid mistakes. But not for too long time. And how much will it cost for the brand?

That being said, to me it's good. Now I can play a few games and I have no problem whatsoever to wait to play it. I've waited over 20 years to play Shenmue.

I'm honestly shocked MS isn't doing better then they are against PS.

Me too. But there is a lot of people who will buy a PS5 just because it is a PS5. And also some leftovers of good will because PS4 and PS3. The same thing happens to Apple. I might be wrong, but I think that on the Apple side it's about status among other reasons. But the same can't be applied to consoles I think.

 

[Gamerguy84]

I'm honestly shocked MS isn't doing better then they are against PS.

 

[kingfey]

Short term I think that it is a really good strategy. The problem is in the long run. But I don't know if gamers will always run for the little guy. We can use Dreamcast as an example. Such amazing hardware but a lot of wrong decisions make Sega leave the console market.

People though xbox one would succesful, due to how good x360 was. same with ps2 to ps3, or wii to wii u.
Anything can happen in the long run. It will depend on how these companies approach.
If Phil leaves MS, they would be doomed, without suitable successor. These variable are what makes predicting the future gaming hit or a miss.

I totally agree with you that Sony can take some stupid mistakes. But not for too long time. And how much will it cost for the brand?

As long as they vault content, It wont matter. Gamers biggest weakness is reviving old good contents.

That being said, to me it's good. Now I can play a few games and I have no problem whatsoever to wait to play it. I've waited over 20 years to play Shenmue.

Gaming now is great compared to the past. We have huge catalog, which makes us busy. Starfield is like 9 months away. Times flies alot, when you are busy with other games.

 

[Sega Orphan]

OP was crying about his warning points the other day and wondering why he was getting them. He though "me? I'm not like what they say I am".

Meanwhile these are the kinds of podcasts he watches/listens to.

I listen to every podcast I can. Iron Lords, Xbox Two, xboxera, Colin M, Ign.
I actually think Dealer is a bit cringe with the childish antics, but hey, it's either that or the fucking radio.

The mods actually deleted the thread as I think they worried it might turn into a console war shit fight. They underestimated everyone's opinion of Patcher.

My biggest point that people seem to be missing is that he is actually paid money by investors to give his opinion about the industry.
So say you have a hedge fund who has a couple of billion they want to invest in the gaming market, because it seems to be real hot at the moment, he is one of the first people they will employ to help them. So if you have him saying shit like this to investors, that's some pretty crazy shit.

For the record, I dont think Sony is going anywhere. The PlayStation isn't going anywhere. The average person isn't going to go and get a gaming PC, deal with all the OS issues, then set it up to the TV, then sort the controller shit up to play games. They are going to buy a console and slap it under the the TV and play it. That's not to say it's too hard to game on a PC, but the average family isn't going to do it. They just arnt. I play games, I have PCs, and I couldn't be fucked gaming on a PC either.
The performance of cloud gaming isn't good enough yet, and the internet still isn't good enough in the majority of the world. Shit, I live in a first world country, Australia, and I live in a large capital city of 1.4 million people, 35kms from the centre of the CBD and I am on thr NBN fixed wireless 4G internet, that struggles to get 10mbs at peak times, and lags like fuck in online games. MSs steady as she goes roll-out of Xcloud shows that even they know it's a long way off. They are using it as a companion service for GP customers to play on the go.
Maybe one day in 25 years when we all have 7g service with 2gbs download speeds it might happen. Plus, why would Sony and MS take on the cost of putting all the infrastructure in and wearing the loss of it becoming obsolete when at the moment they have the customer who is paying for the infrastructure and wearing the asset depreciation?

 

[newtypepilot]

MS has next to zero presence in Japan, so no lol

MS betting on cloud gaming but that only works if the country has reliable and affordable internet infrastructure. Just look at stadia lol

 

[Chechack]

its already 2022

why is everyone still acting surprisedpikacuface.jpg towards whatever Pachter say

 

[Craig of War]

MS has next to zero presence in Japan, so no lol

MS betting on cloud gaming but that only works if the country has reliable and affordable internet infrastructure. Just look at stadia lol

Japan is Nintendoland now Sony is nowhere as big in Japan nowdays so boasting about Japan is not much of a flex anymore

 

[Sega Orphan]

I listened to the podcast. It was a longer discussion than this spicy headline of Sony cant compete and will be gone in 10 years.

I'll expand:
He also said that Sony is resting on the massive leads they built up in other territories US & UK (2:1), Middle East (10:1), etc. Sony views XBox as an anomaly and only US centric.

Where they will be in trouble is in 10 years, as there will be no need for consoles and they aren't positioned well for the future as they are reliant on consoles and have some good IP, but not enough content to fill a GamePass type service (primary driver for MS acquisition of Activision - duh).

One interesting other tidbit was he fel that Amazon will be a huge player in the future once consoles go away because their infrastructure, etc. is already built to handle it. Its also who Microsoft is most scared of. (Which back up Phil's comments about XBox's true competition).

Pachter actually came off decent and relatable. It was an enjoyable podcast and def not console fanboy flame war commentary. Check it out if interested in hearing for yourself.

On the point of Sony not having enough IP to fill a sub service, there are plenty of small or mid sized publishers who don't have anywhere near enough games to have their own service so they will just lease their games to Sony just like EA play did for GP. The vast majority of games on GP arnt MSs own IP. Look at Netflix, the biggest streaming service has maybe 2% of the content made by them. Same goes for Spotify, infact they make non of the content themselves.
I think he was way off base with that.

 

[iHaunter]

Riiiiiiight. SP games don't matter anymore either right?

 

[S0ULZB0URNE]

Mikey opposite P has spoken...
Gamepass future is in jeopardy!

 

[Topher]

My biggest point that people seem to be missing is that he is actually paid money by investors to give his opinion about the industry.

No, that's what you assume. You have no idea where Pachter's money comes from or why so stop pretending you do.

 

[laynelane]

It's rare to see a post where the majority of comments are in agreement here on Gaf. Along with the funny observations and GIFs, this has been a fun read. Well done, OP.

 

[ByWatterson]

Fuck me, I bought this Series X for nothing?!

 

[PuppetMaster]

Pach's big error in his analysis is his over estimation of the impact of back catalog games.

Yes, there are retro gamers. But they are a small niche market. They are not the driving force in the industry. They are not the ones making this a MULTI BILLION dollar industry.

But Pach seems to think these old games are some kind of gold mine. Reality is gamers are not going to give a crap about 20 year old versions of CoD in the year 2030. They will have moved on to the next big thing.

Games are not like movies or TV. Where you can watch a movie from the 60s and feel just as satified if not more than watching a current movie.

What drives gaming is continuously pushing the envelope! Even the big game publishers know this! If they thought they could make games on the scale of a SNES game or PSX game and still charge full price and sell 10mil units they absolutely would. They don't because they know that unless you are on the cutting edge, and continuously evolving technology and gameplay, you are going to get pushed out of the market.

As long as Sony keeps putting out NEW cutting edge games, they will be just fine.

 

[kingfey]

Pach's big error in gis analysis is his over estimation of the impact of back catalog games.

As long as this exist, no company will die fast. Konami is still alive due to that. They own metal gear and silent hill. 2 of the most hyped IPs. and Pes. We dont talk about that one,.

 

[Sega Orphan]

No, that's what you assume. You have no idea where Pachter's money comes from or why so stop pretending you do.

So look who Cnbc and Bloomberg bring on to talk about and give advice on the gaming industry. Its not you, it's not me, it's Pachter. He has one of the highest profiles in gaming market analysis regardless of what we might think of him.

To the vast majority of Michael Pachter haters: No, you STFU

[Editor’s note: Leave Michael Pachter alone! — CTZ] I am always surprised at the amount of hate and venom that...

www.google.com

 

[DavidGzz]

It's only me who would like to slap his face when releases such stupid predictions without any kind of logic?

The triggered fanboy is a cringey sight lol. Physical harm to someone for dissing on their favorite piece of plastic.

It's rare to see a post where the majority of comments are in agreement here on Gaf. Along with the funny observations and GIFs, this has been a fun read. Well done, OP.

This is surprising here? It's like 80% Sony fans.



As far as the prediction. It's only accurate if MS keeps buying up huge developers and keeps the Game Pass price the same while Sony only buys something like Bungie only to keep releasing games on competing platforms. I think MS is done for a while and if it's true about CoD, Diablo 4, etc still coming to Playstation. Playstation will be just fine. They will probably continue to lead for the whole generation.

 

[Topher]

So look who Cnbc and Bloomberg bring on to talk about and give advice on the gaming industry. Its not you, it's not me, it's Pachter. He has one of the highest profiles in gaming market analysis regardless of what we might think of him.

What exactly do you think this proves? The guy is a celebrity in the video game world there is no doubt about that. Major networks have brought him on their programs for years. Does that make him right? Nope. I've already posted two of his predictions that were hilariously false. How about posting some dramatic predictions of his that he got right. That would make a much better point than posting videos of him on TV as if that means something.

Either way, you are still not showing anyone where his money comes from.

 

[PuppetMaster]

As long as this exist, no company will die fast. Konami is still alive due to that. They own metal gear and silent hill. 2 of the most hyped IPs. and Pes. We dont talk about that one,.

What keeps Konami alive has nothing to do with Metal Gear or Silent Hill.

You can read thier financial statments to find out exactly where their revenue comes from: https://www.konami.com/ir/en/ir-data/statements/2021/en1104_6zy3xm.pdf

Their biggest business is Sports centers/gyms. Then their slot machines and pachinko business.

What is left of their video game business is basically just mobile phone gaccha games.

Thier console games business is basically flatlined.

 

[Gamer79]

If Pachter was as bad as his job as his game predictions I am shocked he isn't sleeping in some dumpster.

 

[laynelane]

This is surprising here? It's like 80% Sony fans.

You think doubt and humour towards Pachter's predictions are solely because of a lopsided percentage of Sony fans? I think it's actually because what he's saying is unlikely and he has a proven track record of being wrong.

 

[John Wick]

They may laugh at this prediction but I doubt they will be laughing at a trillion dollar company who purchased Zenimax for 7.5billion and is going to aquire acti-blizz for 70bill.

See it's only a matter of posts before a MS fanboy quotes the usual "trillion dollar company". Strange I never really see Apple or Google fanboys doing the same to enforce their opinion? The trillion dollar company slogan hasn't helped MS overtake Google in search or advertising. Nor beat Apple in revenue etc.

 

[John Wick]

Why are you downplaying the service? I showed you prime example of that service working on smart tv. Yes, it is viable. Its viable to those who cant afford to spend money on multiple consoles.

You say it's viable?
In our household their are six of us. We have three TV's that stream 4k content. We all have smartphones, two Switch and three other consoles PS5, PS4 and One X. I'm on 1gb connection. How good do you think the connection is gonna be when we are all at home using our devices? You think Xcloud is gonna eliminate the need for better Internet overnight? I'm on one of the better and faster Internet speeds.

 

[BennyBlanco]

This guy is always saying some outlandish shit to rile people up. I doubt he even believes this. Put him on the pay no mind list years ago.

 

[IllegalLemon]

On the RDX podcast today Michael Pachter was asked about how he sees the landscape between Sony and Microsoft this gen, to which he replied "I think PlayStation is doomed, and I think they will cease to exist with how we know them in about 10 years. They can't compete, they have no chance of competing".

His point is that Gamepass is going to become the biggest thing in gaming and Sony don't have the first party studios to fill a comparable service, and the back catalogue that MS is going to have when Activision closes is a mountain too high for them.
While he might be laughed at by some here, he is the leading games futurist and he influences investment decisions amongst other things.
Time stamp 56 40

For starters, it's Dealer. Taking anything from his stuff to heart is most probably a bad idea.
Second, Dealer is one of the biggest fanboys on planet earth with regards to Xbox, up there with MrXMedia. To give you some context, he's the illiterate who came up with the gpu performance delta of 30-40% in favour of Xbox right before the consoles came out and got ridiculed for it, hard.
Given Dealer's history with Xbox, capping for them at every turn, of course he would bring someone whose predictions and IQ are probably as low as his. The little brainlet brought Pachter on stream and thought he had his gatcha moment. And if people believe either of these two, I invite you to check both their histories of illiteracy and nonsensical statements, especially when it comes to Pachter and then return here. You'll be surprised as to why it's not wise to take either of them seriously.

Gamepass is an awesome service that's for certain, but to say Playstation will seize to exist because of it without showing evidence that proves such a claim is pure ignorance. Why don't we say it as it is. Both consoles will do great and playstation will do fine regardless of whether or not Gamepass exists.

 

[Mr. PlayStation]

With respect, Michael Pachter also said consoles will be dead by 2020. He makes outlandish, ludicrous and utterly ridiculous statements all the time.

 

[S0ULZB0URNE]

See it's only a matter of posts before a MS fanboy quotes the usual "trillion dollar company". Strange I never really see Apple or Google fanboys doing the same to enforce their opinion? The trillion dollar company slogan hasn't helped MS overtake Google in search or advertising. Nor beat Apple in revenue etc.

They always say this along with MS can buy Sony and Nintendo!

Yet they tried to buy Nintendo and failed.

 

[Sosokrates]

See it's only a matter of posts before a MS fanboy quotes the usual "trillion dollar company". Strange I never really see Apple or Google fanboys doing the same to enforce their opinion? The trillion dollar company slogan hasn't helped MS overtake Google in search or advertising. Nor beat Apple in revenue etc.

The only fanboy here is you getting triggered by facts.
And lol at you acting like Ms vs apple/google as a similar example to xbox vs playstation.