Thirty7ven
Banned
I’m glad he said it, was getting worried for a minute.
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Michael Pachter - Gamepass will destroy Sony. Sony will cease to exist.
- Thread starter Sega Orphan
- Start date
- Drama Clickbait
The Alien
Banned
Acquisitios of Activision and Bethesda (in quantity of quality studios and IP) provides a pretty good cushion for quite a few missteps.
sw0mp_d0nk3y
Member
Gamepass is a great deal, but I find personally that it is way more than I need. I got 6 months of it with my Xbox Series S, and have downloaded quite a few games off game pass that I played once or haven't even bothered yet. Forza is the only gamepass game that I have come back to. Most of the time, I end up playing a few games of multiplayer Halo or Destiny, both of which I could play without gamepass. I could have just bought Forza instead, and been having the exact same experience with my xbox.
The Alien
Banned
I listened to the podcast. It was a longer discussion than this spicy headline of Sony cant compete and will be gone in 10 years.
I'll expand:
He also said that Sony is resting on the massive leads they built up in other territories US & UK (2:1), Middle East (10:1), etc. Sony views XBox as an anomaly and only US centric.
Where they will be in trouble is in 10 years, as there will be no need for consoles and they aren't positioned well for the future as they are reliant on consoles and have some good IP, but not enough content to fill a GamePass type service (primary driver for MS acquisition of Activision - duh).
One interesting other tidbit was he fel that Amazon will be a huge player in the future once consoles go away because their infrastructure, etc. is already built to handle it. Its also who Microsoft is most scared of. (Which back up Phil's comments about XBox's true competition).
Pachter actually came off decent and relatable. It was an enjoyable podcast and def not console fanboy flame war commentary. Check it out if interested in hearing for yourself.
I'll expand:
He also said that Sony is resting on the massive leads they built up in other territories US & UK (2:1), Middle East (10:1), etc. Sony views XBox as an anomaly and only US centric.
Where they will be in trouble is in 10 years, as there will be no need for consoles and they aren't positioned well for the future as they are reliant on consoles and have some good IP, but not enough content to fill a GamePass type service (primary driver for MS acquisition of Activision - duh).
One interesting other tidbit was he fel that Amazon will be a huge player in the future once consoles go away because their infrastructure, etc. is already built to handle it. Its also who Microsoft is most scared of. (Which back up Phil's comments about XBox's true competition).
Pachter actually came off decent and relatable. It was an enjoyable podcast and def not console fanboy flame war commentary. Check it out if interested in hearing for yourself.
Rocco Schiavone
Member
Pachter bullshit all over again.
However, this is how the reality looks like:
However, this is how the reality looks like:
Punished Miku
Member
Yeah, if you actually watch his podcast he seems like a cool guy. It's like hanging out with your dad, only he tries to talk games with you, but still has a dad perspective. It's just his opinion, and it generates interesting discussions every time.
He's said some stupid things over the years, but he isn't all that bad. He apologized for his Iwata comments, which was a dealbreaker for me for a bit.
In terms of your post and the full context, I think that's a more interesting argument for sure. Sony in a post-console world. Personally, I think that even then they would still be around. We would have Nintendo, Sony, Amazon, Xbox apps on our TVs just like our TVs have 20 streaming apps on them now. Not all of those companies own cloud infrastructure. Sony has enough to hang on, even if they are diminished.
Tiago Rodrigues
Member
I keep hearing how consoles will go away...but we never sold as many consoles are right now overall.
Is there any indication sales will drop of a cliff?
drganon
Member
I'm not sure why some people are even looking forward to this shitty "cloud/streaming " future.
Topher
Gold Member
My favorite Pachter prediction:
Pachter: PS4 Exclusive The Order: 1886 Could Sell Up to 12 Million Copies
So glad we have Pachter to tell us things in 2022 that have been said for years now.
Pachter: PS4 Exclusive The Order: 1886 Could Sell Up to 12 Million Copies
So glad we have Pachter to tell us things in 2022 that have been said for years now.
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CityHunter1981
Member
I love Pachter, but often he has little idea about things.
He is saying now Playstation will not survive, but a few years back he said Easy Allies have no sustainable business model and they will not survive, but yeah they are still there…
He is saying now Playstation will not survive, but a few years back he said Easy Allies have no sustainable business model and they will not survive, but yeah they are still there…
DaGwaphics
Member
levyjl1988
Banned
Microsoft doesn’t have:
1. Compelling or comparable IP that Sony has.
2. No comparable dual sense controller.
3. No VR headset to compare with PS VR2.
I want Gravity Rush like experience open world game for XBox that feels unique and not quite niche but become mainstream like Dark Souls, once niche now mainstream and even titled a genre for its fair and overcoming difficulty with a sense of true genuine pride and accomplishment not that shitty shady company response of loot boxes. If paying for something gives you a sense of pride and accomplishment that is fucking sad and you are just a tool or cow to be milked.
Xbox still has a lot to learn.
There are things PS has that Xbox cannot close the gap or give comparable value.
Remember when motion control was all the rage.
Nintendo released the wii.
Sony responded with the Move Controller and PS camera.
Xbox responded with Kinect.
It felt comparable but unique. That’s what I want for innovation, different but still similar.
1. Compelling or comparable IP that Sony has.
2. No comparable dual sense controller.
3. No VR headset to compare with PS VR2.
I want Gravity Rush like experience open world game for XBox that feels unique and not quite niche but become mainstream like Dark Souls, once niche now mainstream and even titled a genre for its fair and overcoming difficulty with a sense of true genuine pride and accomplishment not that shitty shady company response of loot boxes. If paying for something gives you a sense of pride and accomplishment that is fucking sad and you are just a tool or cow to be milked.
Xbox still has a lot to learn.
There are things PS has that Xbox cannot close the gap or give comparable value.
Remember when motion control was all the rage.
Nintendo released the wii.
Sony responded with the Move Controller and PS camera.
Xbox responded with Kinect.
It felt comparable but unique. That’s what I want for innovation, different but still similar.
MasterCornholio
Member
Calling 911 Melts Beams
Banned
So what you're saying is that 2032s hottest selling console will be the atari jaguar cd
Roxkis_ii
Member
Apparently, the future is all one side has.
There is nothing in the last 10 years that would make anyone think Sony won't be here for another 10 years.
While on the Xbox side, they have repeated this console-less future train of thought to great failure (Xbox one). Those who don't learn from history, are often doomed to repeat it.
This patcher guys seem like super Xbox fan, and that's cool, I just hope MS is paying him well to look like a clown.
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TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Well, it's not going so great so far.
cash_longfellow
Member
For the love of god gaf…can we ban articles like this and then kick the poster off the site?
Toots
Gold Member
Futurism - Wikipedia
He's the leader of a early 20th century artistic collective, of which more than half members fought for the facist italian regime during WWII, if i remember my junior high art classes
Do what you will of that...
But anyway Patcher lives in bizarro world so i'll burn a candle for Phil Spencer tonight
edit : changed "more than half artist" to "more than half members" so it actually means something (i think
)
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Gamer_By_Proxy
Member
To think I used to stand up for this guy some like a decade ago . . . now he's borderline braindead.
yurinka
Member
Yes, he's a cool guy and makes good points from time to time but often gets batantly wrong.
First: the need of consoles. In 10 years from now stuff like 5G, fiber or satellite internet coverage, or internet connection without data caps will have improved but will still be a small percent of global coverage. Phones/tablets/PC/consoles/portable hardware and OS will continue merging but still won't be a unified single platform with exactly the same native games working everywhere. Streaming tech will have improved and the main streaming platforms will cover more countries and regions properly but still will be a noticiable worse experience than playing locally.
Second: Cloud gaming. PS are the most experienced ones, have the pioneers, pretty likely the most important patents, the biggest streaming catalog (almost a thousand games), the biggest active userbase on their platform (111 MAU) a decade dominating the gotys with their exclusives, that keep improving their sales and we're seeing more of them reaching over 15M or over 20M sales. They are the best positioned ones to dominate cloud gaming and no other cloud gaming service (xCloud/Stadia/Luna..) until now claimed to have more subs than them.
Third: infrastructure. Sony has their own infrastructure that allowed them to be market leaders on console hardware, software, game subscriptions, cloud gaming and VR. They are opening successfully to PC (their first ports are selling very well), to mobile (Grand/Fate Order makes them over $1B/year) and movies and TV (Uncharted movie is doing a great job). They don't need anyone to keep growing their gaming business.
Fourth: Amazon. They tried it with a mobile games shop, didn't work. They tried it with an Android console, didn't work. They are giving away PC games with Prime I assume to keep some players there, but we don't have numbers to know if it's working. They are building Luna which still isn't ready and we don't know if it will be another Stadia. They had many issues developing their own PC games but recently had a couple of huge successes publishing a couple of PC games, but unlike Sony, Nintendo or MS they don't have a big list of stellar gamdev studios and IPs for Luna or whatever platform they may build. Same goes with Google, they made a lot of money with Google Play on mobile but outside it Stadia and their own AAA games have been a failure and now they don't even have internal studios or IPs.
The most likely scenario is that consolidation will continue with Tencent, Sony, Microsoft, Embracer, Epic and maybe EA and Take 2 or some more acquiring more companies. Sony and specially MS will continue expanding on the PC and mobile area. Consoles will continue slowly growing with specially Sony and Nintendo taking the lead as MS keeps moving away their focus out of consoles to PC and mobile, and specially subscriptions.
Game subs, cloud gaming, VR, PC handhelds and speciallly NFT/play to earn will grow during the next 10 years but I think all of them will continue being a small part of the game business. F2P will continue growing their lead over paid games so we'll see more F2P, game add-ons (DLC/MTX/season passes...) will continue growing their lead vs games sold or rented so we'll see more GaaS and MP, mobile will continue increasing their market share compared to console and PC even if console and PC will continue slowly growing their userbase and revenue. Game subs and cloud gaming even if will grow will continue being a small part of the business compared to F2P and paid games (including their related add-ons revenue).
saintjules
Member
I thought it was an interesting discussion as well. The stuff about FTC is something I'd never consider when it came to exclusivity rights and the like.
Not saying it's a shame it was on the podcast, but I kind wish it was on another platform where more people got to hear it.
lughnasadh123
Member
He's more futanari than futurist.
Microsoft deserves a lot of praise for the work the work and dedication to move into a stronger position and god knows I'm rooting for them as the underdog. But at the end of the day a lot of their strats are from a position of weakness.
Gamepass, as great of a deal as it is, is less important for Sony. Sure, they'll probably have to make some minor adjustments along the way but both theirs and even Nintendo's long term strategies will all be very different. Say that any of them are doomed or going away is hyperbolic nonsense.
Microsoft deserves a lot of praise for the work the work and dedication to move into a stronger position and god knows I'm rooting for them as the underdog. But at the end of the day a lot of their strats are from a position of weakness.
Gamepass, as great of a deal as it is, is less important for Sony. Sure, they'll probably have to make some minor adjustments along the way but both theirs and even Nintendo's long term strategies will all be very different. Say that any of them are doomed or going away is hyperbolic nonsense.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
He's laughed at because some of us have known him for over 15 years. He's been wrong 90% of the time. Some of you youngins only learned his name 2 weeks ago.
Topher
Gold Member
I don't think he even tries to be accurate. His goal is to be controversial.
“There's no such thing as bad publicity”
-P.T. Barnum
Mibu no ookami
Member
Clearly trolling for attention. I like how he compares Sony to Paramount+ versus Netflix.
First, Game Pass is no Netflix. Second, PS+ actually has significantly more subscribers than Game Pass 2:1 ratio (Microsoft has not revealed Xbox Live Gold numbers), they also have a significantly higher ceiling on consoles, which is why Microsoft made a big push to have Game Pass on PC as well to increase their ceiling. Rumor is they'll eschew Xbox Live Gold at some point as well, so we'll see how many jump to Game Pass when this happens.
The reality is Sony isn't Paramount+, they're more akin to HBO Max. They have far better fundamentals than Microsoft and far better opportunities for ROI than Microsoft.
Pachter continues to have no idea what he is talking about.
And personally, I don't think subscriptions for content is really the way to go in video games. 15 dollars per month is the equivalent to the attach rate of an individual buying 3 games. When you have to subsidize that with an order of magnitude far greater than 3 games, you're in trouble.
That is where he makes the mistake of thinking that Activision, Blizzard, and Bethesda games are all of a sudden free additions to Microsoft. No, they're an 80 billion dollar boondoggle of games that may or may not have continued longevity in the face of increased competition and attrition on retention. Not to mention the operating costs of these companies. That is why Sony's approach has objectively been better so far. Buy specific individual companies that you have a track record with (and yes Sony does have a track record with Bungie, they've partnered significantly on Destiny since Destiny became a thing). They also can see Bungie's track record and know what they're capable of. Same with Insomniac, Bluepoint, Housemarque, e.t.c. These are low risk, high reward, high return investments. Sony is likely to bring in a billion plus in revenue with each Spider-Man game they release, and we'll see how Wolverine does. Not to mention whatever else Insomniac does with games like Rift Apart. All of that for 229 million dollars. If Call of Duty dies (i.e. loses its position as a market leader, what happens to that 70 billion dollar investment?) That'll never happen right? What happened to NBA Live? What happened to Gran Turismo, Tekken, and Final Fantasy?
People believe that Microsoft can just take the hit, but that isn't how this works. Shareholders still expect profitability and when/if Xbox becomes a burden for Microsoft, and they just took a huge risk that could create a burden, it'll come at a cost.
First, Game Pass is no Netflix. Second, PS+ actually has significantly more subscribers than Game Pass 2:1 ratio (Microsoft has not revealed Xbox Live Gold numbers), they also have a significantly higher ceiling on consoles, which is why Microsoft made a big push to have Game Pass on PC as well to increase their ceiling. Rumor is they'll eschew Xbox Live Gold at some point as well, so we'll see how many jump to Game Pass when this happens.
The reality is Sony isn't Paramount+, they're more akin to HBO Max. They have far better fundamentals than Microsoft and far better opportunities for ROI than Microsoft.
Pachter continues to have no idea what he is talking about.
And personally, I don't think subscriptions for content is really the way to go in video games. 15 dollars per month is the equivalent to the attach rate of an individual buying 3 games. When you have to subsidize that with an order of magnitude far greater than 3 games, you're in trouble.
That is where he makes the mistake of thinking that Activision, Blizzard, and Bethesda games are all of a sudden free additions to Microsoft. No, they're an 80 billion dollar boondoggle of games that may or may not have continued longevity in the face of increased competition and attrition on retention. Not to mention the operating costs of these companies. That is why Sony's approach has objectively been better so far. Buy specific individual companies that you have a track record with (and yes Sony does have a track record with Bungie, they've partnered significantly on Destiny since Destiny became a thing). They also can see Bungie's track record and know what they're capable of. Same with Insomniac, Bluepoint, Housemarque, e.t.c. These are low risk, high reward, high return investments. Sony is likely to bring in a billion plus in revenue with each Spider-Man game they release, and we'll see how Wolverine does. Not to mention whatever else Insomniac does with games like Rift Apart. All of that for 229 million dollars. If Call of Duty dies (i.e. loses its position as a market leader, what happens to that 70 billion dollar investment?) That'll never happen right? What happened to NBA Live? What happened to Gran Turismo, Tekken, and Final Fantasy?
People believe that Microsoft can just take the hit, but that isn't how this works. Shareholders still expect profitability and when/if Xbox becomes a burden for Microsoft, and they just took a huge risk that could create a burden, it'll come at a cost.
Punished Miku
Member
I doubt he gives out his real market analysis for free on youtube. I think he just shoots the shit for fun.
soulbait
Member
Just dumb.
I am a huge GamePass fan and if a game is available on both, I will usually play on Xbox. As someone who is a "Xbox first" gamer and really like what Xbox is doing right now, this guy is a joke saying Sony will be out in 10 years due to GamePass and lack of depth in game catalogue. Two counter points:
I am a huge GamePass fan and if a game is available on both, I will usually play on Xbox. As someone who is a "Xbox first" gamer and really like what Xbox is doing right now, this guy is a joke saying Sony will be out in 10 years due to GamePass and lack of depth in game catalogue. Two counter points:
- Sony can pivot and make a GamePass like solution. They already have game streaming and distribution system in place through PS Now. Arguments can be made that it is not as good as xCloud, but that can be improved. Also, Sony can start releasing their first-party games on day and date to compete, but as of now they do not need to. However, if market pressures them, they absolutely can start and the millions of PlayStation fans out there will sign up.
- Even if they do not compete with GamePass, they can very much become similar to Nintendo, releasing unique games that can only be found on their platform. Their library my shrink overall, but there are enough mega Sony fans that this could work. So even if Xbox becomes "number one" it does not mean Sony has to go away. For if that was the case, why is Xbox still around?
EverydayBeast
thinks Halo Infinite is a new graphical benchmark
Just because of game pass? I give them credit it’s a legitimate service but let me mention to my eye Microsoft is still young in the gaming world compared to Sony. PS1, PS2.
Bonfires Down
Member
I think he’s just trolling at this point. He probably believes the general gist of his arguments, but then he exagerrates it to get a rise out of people.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
This may be the best response in this whole thread.
AJUMP23
Gold Member
Well he sells it for WEBUSH.....but it should be better than what he is saying here.
TonyK
Member
I think that would not happen because the world is not only USA and Xbox is the third contender outside America. In fact, if Microsoft continues being the third contender in the next gen, it's easier to imagine Microsft leaving the market as console manufacturer. Gamepass is their last attempt to dominate a market by brute force. But at some point they will be tired of losing this race. And they don't need the game division money to survive.
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
lol at Gamepass. It's just a business model. Content will kill Sony or rather lack thereof. If MS goes out and buys COD, Madden, Fifa, GTA, and Ubisoft then yes, MAYBE.
But even then, Nintendo has managed to survive and thrive without those franchises so its not a sure thing.
Pachter was saying the PS3 gen would be last and then the PS4 gen will be last. These guys secretly hate video games and dont want to cover them. Video games have never been more popular. The industry never been more profitable. MS is about to have a very good next ten years thanks to CoD and Bethesda, but Sony still has their first party studios that produce GOTY caliber games year after year. They are also finally selling better than ever with even Horizon doing 20 million sales.
It's nonsense to suggest Sony will bow out because of gamepass. If anything, they will be stronger.
But even then, Nintendo has managed to survive and thrive without those franchises so its not a sure thing.
Pachter was saying the PS3 gen would be last and then the PS4 gen will be last. These guys secretly hate video games and dont want to cover them. Video games have never been more popular. The industry never been more profitable. MS is about to have a very good next ten years thanks to CoD and Bethesda, but Sony still has their first party studios that produce GOTY caliber games year after year. They are also finally selling better than ever with even Horizon doing 20 million sales.
It's nonsense to suggest Sony will bow out because of gamepass. If anything, they will be stronger.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter doesn’t seem to think so- speaking exclusively to GamingBolt, Pachter said that the game’s innate ‘Japanese-ness’ will hold it back from broad commercial appeal, at least in terms of selling systems.
How is Pachter so bad at this?
kingfey
Banned
I am still waiting for the death of physical games. If that thing cant die, then there is no way Sony will be out of business by gamepass.
Physiognomonics
Member
It's about content. Services are not content.
Fuz
Banned
Literally clicked the thread to post this.
THE DUCK
voted poster of the decade by bots
I just don't see much momentum in that direction, if it was I think you would have seen Bethesda games stay multiplatform. There is benefits to controlling your own sandbox long term that I think ms values in the long term picture. While its true releasing on every platform now would help the immediate bottom line, I don't think that's the plan long term for most of the studios.
DJ12
Member
Ms want gamepass on everything. They have already asked Nintendo and Sony if they can go on those platforms.
Ms could just release their games on PlayStation and cash in, but that's not how they want to grow. They see subs as the future on their own console, no reason for them to believe something else for other ecosystems.
DonF
Member
has he ever been right? Yes, he influences investment decisions cause smart people do the opposite of what he says.
Sosokrates
Report me if I continue to console war
Sony will probably sell more consoles.
But gamepass is going to be an offer people cant refuse.
Mobile is the golden goose, mobile gaming dwarfes console profits, gamepass is going to be the best deal for mobile gaming so it makes sense that it will have sucess there.
Streaming in general will also offer a huge installbase for ganepass.
One day one console that is needed for exclusives is going to seem as dumb as a video streaming service being locked to 1 hardware does now.
But gamepass is going to be an offer people cant refuse.
Mobile is the golden goose, mobile gaming dwarfes console profits, gamepass is going to be the best deal for mobile gaming so it makes sense that it will have sucess there.
Streaming in general will also offer a huge installbase for ganepass.
One day one console that is needed for exclusives is going to seem as dumb as a video streaming service being locked to 1 hardware does now.
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