Bernardougf
Gold Member
Well they can just take some lessons with bob iger and disney .. they are experts on mental gymnastics to keep heads of studios who loose billions and run multi-billion franchise's to the ground
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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)
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Rubik8
Member
Hell, Sony should drop their fee to 10% in exchange for 10 yr console exclusivity.
Hmm, no chance that Nadella gets fired unless there is a sexual harassment scandal. There is also very little chance that Brad Smith's is getting fired.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Yeah, that seems like the general consensus on the forum too.
Thoughts on Phil Spencer's future in the wake of the ABK fallout amidst the recent poor performance?
If Spencer does get fired, it won't be because of this deal. It will be the general MS gaming performance. This deal was bigger than Phil Spencer, at 69bn it was a Nadella deal imo.
Bernardougf
Gold Member
Sony must hope for this everyday ... It would be the best for everyone and put an end to this already forming beggar crowd of "give me free games no matter what" crazies
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Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Agreed. Unfair to dismiss Phil because ABK failed.
feynoob
Gold Member
It won't stop.
This is the only way Sony or MS can afford to keep up with AAA cost.
Having a stable funding allows them to keep with higher production cost.
Games these days are costing between 200m to 500m. You need to do close to 10m to see good profits.
This attributes to higher wages of developers who are demanding more money and higher talent pool cost. The more developers that you have, the higher the cost would be.
Roxkis_ii
Member
I agree, I just wonder how do they reprogram their audience. I almost think Microsoft would have to come out with a console under a different brand (SufaceBox?), and just let xbox become just gamepass, or just drop console hardware altogether. It seems like xbox is aiming to become more hardware agnostic in the future anyway.
Edmund
Member
Hope whatever pain you're experiencing will pass and that all will be well. Take care!
IllegalLemon
Member
Unless CAT finds evidence of the CMA having taken their decision in bad faith, appealing them will probably lead Microsoft in a never ending roundabout, forced to run circles around themselves as no appeal against the CMA has ever been successful in such cases. It'll be a few billion more wasted, just for the regulatory entity to arrive at the same conclusion and things will be right back where they started. There's no point in Microsoft battling these UK government entities, ever since Brexit, the UK government has become filled with pride, no way will CAT side with Microsoft and go against one of their own. At least, these are my two cents in all honesty.The ruling was a shock after the regulator had already resolved its concerns about the consoles market, a sector dominated by Sony's PlayStation and Microsoft's Xbox, which dwarfs cloud gaming.
IS THE DEAL DEAD?
Not necessarily. Microsoft said it remained fully committed and would appeal.
The regulator's decision reflected a flawed understanding of the market, it said.
HOW DOES THE APPEAL PROCESS WORK?
Microsoft can appeal to Britain's Competition Appeal Tribunal (CAT), an independent judicial body, which will only examine the CMA's decision-making process, not the merits of the merger.
Microsoft will not be able to offer new remedies at this stage, such as offering to keep Activision content off its Xbox Game Pass, a subscription service for Xbox users, in Britain, as some analysts suggest. <-- such as Michael Pachter
"The CAT will not engage with the merits of the CMA's decision or conduct a wholesale review of the parties' evidence," said Edward Lane, senior associate at law firm Harbottle & Lewis, where his particular focus is on creative industries, including film, TV, video games and music.
WHAT'S NEXT?
Microsoft must appeal by May 24 and a decision may take many months.
"The CAT aims to deal with 'straightforward' cases in under nine months – and Microsoft/Activision is anything but straightforward," Lane, said.
WHAT HAPPENS IF MICROSOFT WINS?
The Tribunal will return the case to the regulator for further review. Microsoft can then offer new concessions.
"The likelihood is that without a material change in circumstances or new evidence, the CMA is most likely to reach the same conclusion as it did first time around," said James Groves, a competition associate at European law firm Fieldfisher. <--MS winning appeal doesn't mean the deal is approved
WHAT ABOUT OTHER REGULATORS?
European regulators will rule on the world's biggest gaming deal by May 22. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission filed a complaint to block the deal, which Microsoft has indicated it will fight.
If either of those blocks the deal, it could be game over, Lane said.
If the EU goes against it, Microsoft would be fighting an increasingly uphill battle and could decide to cut its losses, even if that would mean paying Activision a hefty $3 billion break fee.
WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO OTHER CMA APPEALS?
Facebook-owner Meta (META.O) appealed a 2021 decision by the CMA to block its acquisition of Giphy, seen as a test case for the British regulator's resolve to take on "Big Tech".
Meta succeeded on a single procedural ground, with the decision otherwise upheld. The CMA considered new submissions, but it came to the same view and Meta had to sell animated images platform Giphy.
Global financial services company FNZ appealed a block on its 2019 merger with rival GBST. The regulator then "identified certain potential errors" in its investigation chaired by Martin Coleman, who also oversaw the Microsoft-Activision case.
The CAT sent the case back to be reconsidered, and the CMA agreed to accept a new remedy whereby FNZ could sell GBST and then buy parts of it back. <-- new remedies can be offered only after the case is sent back to CMA
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/GKAIQ2ZYSBLQBCZ7NTCBL7VB4E.jpg)
Explainer: What next for Microsoft's $69 billion Activision deal after UK ban?
Britain's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) on Wednesday blocked Microsoft's $69 billion acquisition of 'Call of Duty' maker Activision Blizzard over concerns it would hinder cloud gaming.www.reuters.com
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feynoob
Gold Member
The pain is not physical. It's that my sport team was so close to winning a league trophy after 19 years. It will sting for a while, until we win it.
Varteras
Gold Member
Yeah. I've been saying that Spencer is probably out if this deal falls through. Not because the deal itself failed. But because a deal like this was needed to change the course for Xbox. The regulatory process publicly exposed the issues Xbox is experiencing that they've been trying to gloss over. They weren't shocking revelations, to anyone with a brain, but they are, nonetheless, revelations that are now irrefutable. It showed just how much of a bad way Xbox is in for the console space and that Spencer's master plan, GamePass, is really not working without a $70 billion investment. Which the CMA concluded may not have actually made a difference in consoles and can't be done for cloud gaming because of the company's other moves in the cloud space.
Yeah. This appeal process could actually take 2 to 3 years to eventually just be a "no" anyway. In that time, the UK government is planning to give the CMA even more power. Both Microsoft and Activision will likely decide it's in their best interest to move on so they can make other moves. Right now, both are paralyzed while this deal is being fought over.
Edmund
Member
I have a friend who is inconsolable after spurs equalised with Liverpool at the 93rd minute and then Liverpool scored another one at the 94th to win the game.
Gorgon
Member
I hope he puts that on Spotify. Better than the original version, I'd listen to that shit.
feynoob
Gold Member
That was a roller coaster emotion.I have a friend who is inconsolable after spurs equalised with Liverpool at the 93rd minute and then Liverpool scored another one at the 94th to win the game.
Same as that milan vs roma game with extra time goals.
PaintTinJr
Member
I personally think the appeal will be done much quicker- even quicker than the appeal of US merging companies Sabre/farelogix that the CMA blocked, as the CMA and UK government won't want bully boy waiting at the gates any longer than absolutely required IMO.
https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/sabre-farelogix-merger-inquiry
I could see a scenario where the FTC use the CMA decision in court and Microsoft counter with the argument that they are appealing the decision and the Judge says they'll continue following the appeal outcome, only for ATVI's deal exit date to get their $3b to arrive, and Microsoft caught between a rock and a hard place. Forced to pay up and also offer ATVI even more for the purchase and double the penalty money to avoid their appeal being cancelled by the deal being cancelled, leading the FTC to return to court with the CMA decision and it being bullet proof from Microsoft's strategy to get it dismissed in full, leaving them exposed to losing to the FTC and getting fined a new record amount x10 their penalty fee for ATVI.
Badlucktroll
Member
Microsoft could have got this deal to close if they had been alot more open and willing and made everyone think that activision’s buisness would stay the same (but better, cheaper and fairer, and generally, awesomer), just with microsoft as a parent. But, 10 year agreements, cloud weirdness, keeping 100% of revenue, yeesh. they should just spend that $70 billion to feed the poor. And buy everyone puppies and kitties.
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mansoor1980
Gold Member
GHG
Gold Member
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Dick Jones
Gold Member
GHG
Gold Member
"Tell them you want to turn Sony into Blockbuster, that will really get things going in our favour"
"Oh and Lulu, you're doing great love, the crazier the better. I love crazy"
Dick Jones
Gold Member
All it took was bad math for them to drop the Console SLC. MS has already identified bad math with the Cloud SLC. I think they have a good shot.
Topher
Gold Member
What's the bad math?
So unattractive that MS bought a 4% stake in December.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/dec/12/microsoft-buy-stake-in-london-stock-exchange-lseg
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feynoob
Gold Member
The deal is dead.
With CMA block, it's lifeline has been cut off.
Dick Jones
Gold Member
Spencer + Greenberg = Success
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Astray
Member
His disclosure is flawed.
When talking about an issue while being paid, he should be mentioned if he's specifically being paid to talk about said issue or not.
Instead he almost frames it like he used to be paid for other stuff in the past.
I'd also be curious about the timing of him disclosing that, but I'm too busy to actually dig into it.
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feynoob
Gold Member
MS shot is hooking meth to their veins.
They used faulty math in determining MS has 70% of the Cloud market.
Varteras
Gold Member
So, like, 69% then?
feynoob
Gold Member
MS has 70% of the market.
GeForce isn't a competitive to Xcloud, since it has no content. You as a user has to buy those content from their partnership.
So that leaves xcloud, luna and psnow as main players.
Ansphn
Member
Brad Smith is definitely on the hot seat. Have you seen how the man has been acting since the CMA rejection? He probably promised Nadella that the deal was a piece of cake and probably the man who made all these guys like Nadella come out to the public saying some dumb brain dead shit. Brad is looking like a man who fears for his survival right now.
Bernoulli
M2 slut
no this is too funny
i want to see the reaction if EU is against it too
feynoob
Gold Member
.
jm89
Member
So MS couldn't point out that "faulty" maths in the last few weeks? And suddenly they found it now?
You know that 70% marketshare has been there since the original PF right?
It's quite obvious MS have been trying to get the CMA to drop the cloud SLC for a while now, especially with that shill professors failed attempt to convince the CMA that cloud market is not distinct from console market.
My guess CMA rejected whatever maths the tried downplay the marketshare with.
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Alex Scott
Member
I think Brad Smith is safe and also think he is very persistent. You don't get a job like that if you are not determined.
Phil on the other hand, he has a lot to answer for if it doesn't go through.
Like what his future plan for Xbox now? And why is it worth it for MS to continue to loose money on it ( I think xbox right now is bleeding money)?
Topher
Gold Member
CMA acknowledged the disagreement of market share in their findings. They explicitly say that their concern is regarding "Microsoft's future position". So even if CAT agreed with Microsoft on the market share percentage, CMA can simply change the percentage and come to the exact same decision.
GHG
Gold Member
2 years later at that as well.
Bernoulli
M2 slut
from idas
The CMA didn't consider the agreement with Nintendo as evidence that MS was interested in distributing COD to more platforms because the agreement was entered during the review process (page 186)
Regarding the Nintendo agreement, in addition to noting that this theory of harm is primarily focussed on SIE for reasons already explained, we also consider the points discussed in the ability assessment regarding the uncertainty created by certain terms of this agreement also apply to our incentive analysis. With regards to Microsoft's submission that this agreement demonstrates a general intention to distribute CoD on more consoles, we note that this agreement has been entered into during the course of our Merger investigation (and those of other authorities). We therefore do not consider this is reliable evidence of what Microsoft's incentives would otherwise be in the ordinary course.
so the CMA knew that MS only started to talk about other consoles only when regulators where looking into it, their plan was to make COD exclusive and foreclose competitors
The CMA didn't consider the agreement with Nintendo as evidence that MS was interested in distributing COD to more platforms because the agreement was entered during the review process (page 186)
Regarding the Nintendo agreement, in addition to noting that this theory of harm is primarily focussed on SIE for reasons already explained, we also consider the points discussed in the ability assessment regarding the uncertainty created by certain terms of this agreement also apply to our incentive analysis. With regards to Microsoft's submission that this agreement demonstrates a general intention to distribute CoD on more consoles, we note that this agreement has been entered into during the course of our Merger investigation (and those of other authorities). We therefore do not consider this is reliable evidence of what Microsoft's incentives would otherwise be in the ordinary course.
so the CMA knew that MS only started to talk about other consoles only when regulators where looking into it, their plan was to make COD exclusive and foreclose competitors
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Alex Scott
Member
It always was what we can least offer to appease the regulators.
feynoob
Gold Member
The entire planning was fucked up from the start.
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