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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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    886
  • Poll closed .
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GHG

Gold Member
Page 1k

R.f3396f42749f418d6637ecac10d43fd0


Those of us left who havenā€™t yet been thread banned, buy yourself a pint.

And the very post nailed it.

Every week it's recycled PR, and these warring threads.
heath ledger joker GIF

All these months later and nothings changed.

Cracking Up Lol GIF by HULU
 
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Wulfer

Member
but but but our experts insiders said the CMA did the math wrong



To understand that reference, we need to take a step back. In August 2020, Microsoft announced that Game Pass Ultimate subscribers would get access to cloud gaming via the service previously known as xCloud. It was meant as a bonus perk to entice Xbox users to start playing on their mobile devices, such as phones and tablets. Later, it was expanded to PC and even older Xbox consoles, allowing Xbox One players access to Xbox Series S|X exclusives.

However, it is widely believed that a substantial portion of Game Pass Ultimate subscribers either tried xCloud once or twice and never looked back or didn't even bother checking out, having access to local PC or Xbox consoles capable of running the titles available in the Game Pass library. In some countries, xCloud isn't even available yet.

That's me right there I'm one of those users. The experience wasn't for me. Sorry
 
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PaintTinJr

Member
I don't think that is perfect analogy.
They are the same government that approved man City behaviors and Saudis Arabia purchase for NewCastle United.
Even Man united might become a Qatari club soon.

Also from my arsenal experience, you can't be sure of something. We were ahead of 8 points against man city. And now we are 4 points behind with them having 1 game in hand. Anything can change the landscape.

As long as that 1%-5% exist, I can't be sure about it.
We were members of the EU when the Premier League's Fit-and-Proper-person's test was cobbled together by local associations - and has frequently been discussed as unfit for purpose by incumbent governments that were reluctant to intervene because of the UEFA/FIFA threat of banning teams and associations under direct control of their nation's governments until the Blatter, etc corruption accusations.

The European super league was an issue of business market competition - like this issue - rather than ownership, hence why they would have blocked it legally to protect our oldest professional sports leagues' business.

In today's environment ownership is tougher to regulated because of precedence, but if Ken Bates had never sold Chelsea to Roman while we were part of the EU, I'm confident that most ownerships today would get blocked by the CMA - and hopefully a local billionaire is taking full control of United from the Glazers, soon.

Here's a question for you: what is more likely? This deal? or Man City having titles taken from them -and (IIRC) Mourinho at United getting a belated Prem league Winners medal?

(As a long standing United support, having seen Beckham and Cantona at Old Trafford) I think the latter is more likely, and still not happening either :)
 
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jm89

Member
Wouldn't be the first time the CMA fucked up the math šŸ˜‰
CMA have shown willingness to make amendments, you think Microsoft didn't try give evidence to the contrary for the cloud concerns?

Or did they wait for CMA to block it and then want to point out some issues, playing some bizzare 4d chess.

CMA can absolutley block this again just alone for their concerns of cloud gaming being an emerging market and microsofts huge advantage through various means in the future.
 
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PaintTinJr

Member
Right, I don't doubt that you've done a thorough job of the 400 page document, more than pretty much every other poster commenting on it one way or the other.

But even in your picture, it says they've estimated share for 2021 and 2022.

They also, in a separate point, say that their data may not be representative of the future state of the cloud market.

There's a lot of uncertainty here and these are just estimates, there is a lot of wiggle room for this data to be recalculated if/when under appeal.
There isn't wiggle room, because the CMA are only working on "balance of probabilities" with their objective to be overly protective of competition than not.

(edit) Passed 1000pages and you still aren't getting that this isn't the US, where both start at zero. The CMA start at 49 of 100 if investigating a merger with a suspected SLC, and it is the merging parties' responsibility to use the remaining 51% to prove that an SLC isn't an issue, or change the game with structural remedies to take that 49% down many levels to favour the merger more than blocking.
 
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Wulfer

Member
CMA have shown willingness to make amendments, you think Microsoft didn't try give evidence to the contrary for the cloud concerns?

Or did they wait for CMA to block it and then want to point out some issues, playing some bizzare 4d chess.

CMA will absolutley block this again just alone for their concerns of cloud gaming being an emerging market and microsofts huge advantage through various means in the future.
I don't think it's that simple. Why would MS hire these top notch lawyers if they thought they would really lose? Have you looked at this case from that point of view? You think MS just loves to waste money on a dead deal? They must be seeing something that we don't see. This is the only thing that makes any sense. They're about to throw away 3 billion to ABK. Why in the world would they be hiring these high level lawyers, if they didn't think they could win? Are we missing something or do we not have of enough pieces of this puzzle? This thread will be timeless no matter the outcome!
 
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jm89

Member
I don't think it's that simple. Why would MS hire these top notch lawyers if they thought they would really lose? Have you looked at this case from that point of view? You think MS just loves to waste money on a dead deal? They must be seeing something that we don't see. This is the only thing that makes any sense. They're about to throw away 3 billion to ABK. Why in the world would they be hiring these high level lawyers, if they didn't think they could win? Are we missing something or do we not have of enough pieces of this puzzle? This thread will be timeless no matter that outcome!

They already had top notch lawyers or did they hire some graduates? CMA still kicked them in the nuts regardless.
 
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Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
I don't think it's that simple. Why would MS hire these top notch lawyers if they thought they would really lose? Have you looked at this case from that point of view? You think MS just loves to waste money on a dead deal? They must be seeing something that we don't see. This is the only thing that makes any sense. They're about to throw away 3 billion to ABK. Why in the world would they be hiring these high level lawyers, if they didn't think they could win? Are we missing something or do we not have of enough pieces of this puzzle? This thread will be timeless no matter the outcome!
You answered your own question.

Microsoft's $3 billion is on the line. The clock is ticking. Microsoft is hiring these people and giving it their last best shot in an attempt to save those $3 billion (and get ABK).

The CMA may again kick them down, but this is Microsoft's best route forward, at least until July 18. After that, the best way forward would be to abandon the deal as soon as possible.
 

ShaiKhulud1989

Gold Member
You answered your own question.

Microsoft's $3 billion is on the line. The clock is ticking. Microsoft is hiring these people and giving it their last best shot in an attempt to save those $3 billion (and get ABK).

The CMA may again kick them down, but this is Microsoft's best route forward, at least until July 18. After that, the best way forward would be to abandon the deal as soon as possible.
I mean trying their best until July 18 is literally part of the contract. After that deadline? Yeah, well, I expect some very cold shower for fanboys and very tame PR-text about exchanging 3b on MS/ATVI websites.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
When they weighed 1 year of loss revenue against 5 years of gains? That math that made them amend their provisional findings? That had nothing to do with math?
MS themselves with their cloud/infrastructure push for 10+ years and beyond with all their infrastructure data and plans is what got it blocked.

The EU agreed with those concerns, ironically.
 
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That Microsoft brainwashing is clearly evident in some people. They never ever try to hide it at all. It seems like our buddy Sen-Shit Cray-Cray is huffing the hopium so hard that to him, cloud gaming is now a nascent market "just because". He couldn't quiet down about how big Xcloud was and now, it's literally a full on flip-flop and the cloud gaming market is suddenly tiny. The level of absolute ignorance and cognitive dissonance on display with fanboys like those guys is absolutely insane. They suddenly became experts in predicting market size and growth for specific markets based on information and data pulled from nowhere, but the big gaping hole their heads have been stuck inside for far longer than I can remember. I think it's time for them to quit huffing all that hardcore hopium and return to reality. Because apparently reality is far more bleak and unforgiving than they seem to think.
 
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Three

Member
We got a lot more pages to come if CMA is truly trying to say GPU ='s Xcloud users. I can count on my hand how many times I played a game on Xcloud. It's just not my thing. I prefer to game on a big screen with theatre sound. The Xcloud isn't the experience I choose to game on. I perfer downloading the full game and playing on the hardware I have purchased. I'm not the Xcloud user. The CMA is clearly wrong here with it's stats if this is the line for Xcloud. This has real grounds for the appeal process! I may never be a Xcloud user...
What happened? Wasnā€™t cloud gaming what MS were preparing for its offensive to make a comeback this gen? Were you drinking the kool-aid until cloud gaming got in the way of the acquisition?
See when Gamepass was revealed MS was done with it's changes to it's setup. Cloud gaming was almost ready and MS was ready to go on the offense. MS even told you this gen would be it's comeback not the Xbox One''s (gen).
 
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Has this story/news been mentioned on here yet?

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/18/doj-lawsuit-korean-airline-merger-00097547

It's not directly related to this acquisition news between Microsoft and ABK, but I still found it interesting given some of the content of the article, and how it is perhaps tangentially related to the process that this Microsoft-ABK merger is going through. Specifically, I found this excerpt to be the most intriguing of all:

"Though the United States does not have jurisdiction over the companiesā€™ conduct inside South Korea, where both airlines are based, it can still seek to block the merger on the basis of harm to competition in the U.S. Because the U.S. is an important market for the airlines, they have a significant incentive to resolve the DOJā€™s concerns prior to a trial."

That sounds familiar somehow ... and I should also add the person who wrote that article for Politico is the same individual who wrote this article back in November last year: Article
 

James Sawyer Ford

Gold Member
I don't think it's any coincidence that Sony announced the Playstation Showcase for end of May, immediately after they have confirmation from the CMA and EU regarding the Activision/Microsoft deal. I really do think the primary reason we have not seen a showcase is due to this acquisition, as Sony did not want to weaken their position with a strong games showing for the future.

Now that the CMA has said that their concerns are unrelated to console competition, but ended up ruling in favor of blocking the deal for Cloud related reasons, and the EU has approved the deal despite having the same concerns as the CMA, Sony now knows the major regulatory impact direction and there's simply no need to withold their plans any longer. Them having a showcase won't weaken their position for the Activision/Microsoft deal in the future.

It's why I also think the claim that Jim Ryan is now focused on "Total Mindshare' and "Make a Statement and Make Noise" may have some truth as Jim has likely specifically withheld a significant portion of their long-term plans as a result of that merger.
 

Wulfer

Member
What happened? Wasnā€™t cloud gaming what MS were preparing for it's offensive to make a comeback this gen? Were you drinking the kool-aid until cloud gaming got in the way of the acquisition?
I don't know Three I beta tested it. I tried to like it. I just prefer to game at home. To me Xcloud is just another way to play. It's not my preferred way to play but, it is another option.
 

demigod

Member
I don't think it's any coincidence that Sony announced the Playstation Showcase for end of May, immediately after they have confirmation from the CMA and EU regarding the Activision/Microsoft deal. I really do think the primary reason we have not seen a showcase is due to this acquisition, as Sony did not want to weaken their position with a strong games showing for the future.

Now that the CMA has said that their concerns are unrelated to console competition, but ended up ruling in favor of blocking the deal for Cloud related reasons, and the EU has approved the deal despite having the same concerns as the CMA, Sony now knows the major regulatory impact direction and there's simply no need to withold their plans any longer. Them having a showcase won't weaken their position for the Activision/Microsoft deal in the future.

It's why I also think the claim that Jim Ryan is now focused on "Total Mindshare' and "Make a Statement and Make Noise" may have some truth as Jim has likely specifically withheld a significant portion of their long-term plans as a result of that merger.
He knows that shit is blocked.
 

freefornow

Member
I don't think it's any coincidence that Sony announced the Playstation Showcase for end of May, immediately after they have confirmation from the CMA and EU regarding the Activision/Microsoft deal. I really do think the primary reason we have not seen a showcase is due to this acquisition, as Sony did not want to weaken their position with a strong games showing for the future.

Now that the CMA has said that their concerns are unrelated to console competition, but ended up ruling in favor of blocking the deal for Cloud related reasons, and the EU has approved the deal despite having the same concerns as the CMA, Sony now knows the major regulatory impact direction and there's simply no need to withold their plans any longer. Them having a showcase won't weaken their position for the Activision/Microsoft deal in the future.

It's why I also think the claim that Jim Ryan is now focused on "Total Mindshare' and "Make a Statement and Make Noise" may have some truth as Jim has likely specifically withheld a significant portion of their long-term plans as a result of that merger.
Showcase will open with next COD gameplay and highlight exclusive perks.
 

demigod

Member
There is a talk that shit can last up to 2 years.

I hope you brought your Viagra, if you want to last longer.
An appeal is simply not worth it. They are dragging this out until the deal deadline. They missed out on Tomb Raider for dirt cheap because of this ongoing acquisition. They will get this over with and try to buy other companies that wonā€™t alert the regulators.
 
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