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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
GHG

GHG

Member
HoofHearted said:
at this point it's all posturing in order to finalize the remaining decisions... I'd expect FTC to now get additional pressure to approve quicker now..
Click to expand...

The American FTC to now approve because of... China?

Is this some alternate timeline or something? Fuck it, throw Saudi Arabia's approval in there for good measure as well.
 
Last edited:
jm89

jm89

Member
HoofHearted said:
at this point it's all posturing in order to finalize the remaining decisions... I'd expect FTC to now get additional pressure to approve quicker now..
Click to expand...
From a recent mlex update posted on the previous page doesn't look they are in any pressure to approve, looks as if they will take their time fighting this.

I can't imagine chinas approval changing anything considering the markets are different.
 
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Bojanglez

Bojanglez

The Amiga Brotherhood
HoofHearted said:
welp - 2 of 3 remaining...

gamerant.com

China Likely to Approve Microsoft Activision Acquisition

A new report indicates that The People's Republic of China will approve Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard despite some objections.
gamerant.com gamerant.com
Click to expand...
Awaiting the corporate tweets about how China and the CCP are open for business and that they are particularly looking to 'invest' in new studios there due to their excellent regulation and human rights policies.
 
Last edited:
Bernoulli

Bernoulli

M2 slut
Bojanglez said:
Awaiting the corporate tweets about how China and the CCP are open for business and that they are particularly looking to 'invest' in new studios there due to their excellent regulation and human rights policies.
Click to expand...
until the USA announces more AI and cloud hardware ban
 
adamsapple

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
HoofHearted said:
welp - 2 of 3 remaining...

gamerant.com

China Likely to Approve Microsoft Activision Acquisition

A new report indicates that The People's Republic of China will approve Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard despite some objections.
gamerant.com gamerant.com
Click to expand...


This article says approved, not 'likely', ?


seekingalpha.com

Microsoft's planned $69B Activision purchase gets China antitrust approval - report

Microsofts (MSFT) planned $69 billion acquisition of Activision received approval from China's antitrust regulator. Chinas State Administration for Market Regulation granted...
seekingalpha.com seekingalpha.com
 
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splattered

splattered

Member
Sure it doesn't mean the deal is all of a sudden back on but yes it adds to the pressure that the FTC and CMA are currently facing. If the FTC gets it's ass handed to it in court and the CMA really is the only regulatory body out there trying to block this then it will make for a much stronger case for Microsoft. Geofencing or whatever you want to call it will seem like a much more likely scenario especially if it's only for one region and then how long before CMA back tracks and approves the acquisition down the road because they are the only ones being left behind while the rest of the world moves forward with this? I'm not saying it's GOING to happen, just saying as each reg body approves it makes it a little more of a possibility versus a hard NO.
 
Mr Moose

Mr Moose

Member
splattered said:
Sure it doesn't mean the deal is all of a sudden back on but yes it adds to the pressure that the FTC and CMA are currently facing. If the FTC gets it's ass handed to it in court and the CMA really is the only regulatory body out there trying to block this then it will make for a much stronger case for Microsoft. Geofencing or whatever you want to call it will seem like a much more likely scenario especially if it's only for one region and then how long before CMA back tracks and approves the acquisition down the road because they are the only ones being left behind while the rest of the world moves forward with this? I'm not saying it's GOING to happen, just saying as each reg body approves it makes it a little more of a possibility versus a hard NO.
Click to expand...
No it doesn't, the CMA has already decided. They have no pressure.
 
DeepEnigma

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
splattered said:
They will if Microsoft steps around them and seals the deal. It's all going to come down to what MS and Acti decide to do in the end.
Click to expand...
Trisha Hershberger Fantasy GIF by The Dungeon Run
 
Bernoulli

Bernoulli

M2 slut
splattered said:
Sure it doesn't mean the deal is all of a sudden back on but yes it adds to the pressure that the FTC and CMA are currently facing. If the FTC gets it's ass handed to it in court and the CMA really is the only regulatory body out there trying to block this then it will make for a much stronger case for Microsoft. Geofencing or whatever you want to call it will seem like a much more likely scenario especially if it's only for one region and then how long before CMA back tracks and approves the acquisition down the road because they are the only ones being left behind while the rest of the world moves forward with this? I'm not saying it's GOING to happen, just saying as each reg body approves it makes it a little more of a possibility versus a hard NO.
Click to expand...
The new buzzword now is PRESSURE
Bye bad math you didn't last long
And welcome to PRESSURE

pressure GIF
Stressed Out Scream GIF by William Garratt
 
HoofHearted

HoofHearted

Member
jm89 said:
From a recent mlex update posted on the previous page doesn't look they are in any pressure to approve, looks as if they will take their time fighting this.

I can't imagine chinas approval changing anything considering the markets are different.
Click to expand...
sorry - wasn't clear earlier... additional "political" pressure...


GHG said:
The American FTC to now approve because of... China?

Is this some alternate timeline or something? Fuck it, throw Saudi Arabia's approval in there for good measure as well.
Click to expand...
With the current state of US politics - yes - It's an additional (admittedly weak) political lever to pull .. depends on if this hits the mainstream/national news cycles here or not..

Dick Jones said:
The FTC are going to court in August. Why did you think anything has changed?
Click to expand...
Nothing has changed - I'm simply speculating that this latest decision could potentially contribute additional political pressure and posturing to pressure the FTC to move quicker - there's already been talk, innuendo, and news reports regarding the "discussions" between CMA and FTC.

To be clear - I'm making a guess here with respect to the overall process ...

As clearly outlined ad nauseum on this thread - there's an existing timeline to this deal and MS would clearly benefit from moving this quicker through the process prior to the July deadline in order to determine a final decision on whether to move forward or not..
 
Ogbert

Ogbert

Member
Can I ask, for the five or six souls who are living on this thread and making it very enjoyable, why exactly are you so against this acquisition?

Is it simply that Call of Duty is your favourite game and you don’t want it to have to buy it elsewhere?

Or is it some more honourable argument about the nature of commercial competition? So certain titles should be off limits and available to all.
 
Heisenberg007

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
splattered said:
Sure it doesn't mean the deal is all of a sudden back on but yes it adds to the pressure that the FTC and CMA are currently facing. If the FTC gets it's ass handed to it in court and the CMA really is the only regulatory body out there trying to block this then it will make for a much stronger case for Microsoft. Geofencing or whatever you want to call it will seem like a much more likely scenario especially if it's only for one region and then how long before CMA back tracks and approves the acquisition down the road because they are the only ones being left behind while the rest of the world moves forward with this? I'm not saying it's GOING to happen, just saying as each reg body approves it makes it a little more of a possibility versus a hard NO.
Click to expand...
Why though?

When EC approved the acquisition, the FTC and the CMA had opposed/blocked the acquisition. So why didn't EC feel the pressure to follow the other 2 regulatory bodies?

Even now the score is 2-1 against this acquisition. So why is China not feeling the pressure to also block it?

And if China and EC didn't feel any pressure to follow FTC and CMA, why would the FTC and CMA feel any pressure to follow China and EC?
 
T

Three

Member
adamsapple said:
This article says approved, not 'likely', ?


seekingalpha.com

Microsoft's planned $69B Activision purchase gets China antitrust approval - report

Microsofts (MSFT) planned $69 billion acquisition of Activision received approval from China's antitrust regulator. Chinas State Administration for Market Regulation granted...
seekingalpha.com seekingalpha.com
Click to expand...
Is says according to dealreporter in that too so it's all still rumour until it's official. I have no idea if they are going to approve or not but beware of the pump and dump that happened before the CMA results.
Goalus said:
Click to expand...

Yes because comparing the GDP and population of 38 countries most of which are under one jurisdiction, a lot of which xbox/gamepass aren't even officially in, to the UK is whats important to the games industry. What an absolute clown.
 
Astray

Astray

Member
Ogbert said:
Can I ask, for the five or six souls who are living on this thread and making it very enjoyable, why exactly are you so against this acquisition?
Click to expand...
Why should a market competitor that built next to no actual good will in over 20 years be emboldened to forcibly buy out the 3P market and distort it?

If Microsoft was original IP additive in any way, then I'd be more enthusiastic about this deal, but my Series X is collecting dust, and their plan to keep it viable involves fucking with platforms that actually did add new IP to the market at considerable financial and creative risk.

The idea that Microsoft think they can't compete without this deal says volumes about what they themselves think of the quality of their original IP pipeline and how willing they actually are to take creative risks that actually provide me, the consumer with more options.
 
Banjo64

Banjo64

cumsessed
Three said:
Is says according to dealreporter in that too so it's all still rumour until it's official. I have no idea if they are going to approve or not but beware of the pump and dump that happened before the CMA results.

Yes because comparing the GDP and population of 38 countries most of which are under one jurisdiction, a lot of which xbox/gamepass aren't even officially in, to the UK is whats important to the games industry. What an absolute clown.
Click to expand...
Also hilarious is that these combined 38 countries only have 13x the GDP of the UK.

I know Florian is stupid, but if he’s trying to make the UK appear weak and insignificant he probably shouldn’t post stats that make them appear strong and powerful.
 
X-Wing

X-Wing

Member
Ogbert said:
Can I ask, for the five or six souls who are living on this thread and making it very enjoyable, why exactly are you so against this acquisition?

Is it simply that Call of Duty is your favourite game and you don’t want it to have to buy it elsewhere?

Or is it some more honourable argument about the nature of commercial competition? So certain titles should be off limits and available to all.
Click to expand...

To be fair the fact that Activision owns so much IP and that these will be, sooner or later, used to leverage Microsoft’s position.
 
Ogbert

Ogbert

Member
Astray said:
Why should a market competitor that built next to no actual good will in over 20 years be emboldened to forcibly buy out the 3P market and distort it?

If Microsoft was original IP additive in any way, then I'd be more enthusiastic about this deal, but my Series X is collecting dust, and their plan to keep it viable involves fucking with platforms that actually did add new IP to the market at considerable financial and creative risk.

The idea that Microsoft think they can't compete without this deal says volumes about what they themselves think of the quality of their original IP pipeline and how willing they actually are to take creative risks that actually provide me, the consumer with more options.
Click to expand...
Well, the short answer is, for the sake of competition. And the glib answer is, because they have the money to.

What I fundamentally don’t get about MS’ approach is why they just don’t turn Gears of War into the best 3rd person shooter on the market. Likewise, Halo. They have the IPs. Hell of a lot cheaper too.
 
POKEYCLYDE

POKEYCLYDE

Member
Kenshin775 said:
Wouldn't it just be delayed if any other remaining country were to block. I would just assume MS would fight them in court like the FTC and win an appeal. From what I understand only the UK has a unique structure where even if MS wins the appeal with CAT then it goes back to the CMA for review again.

So Even if MS gets blocked I think they would just keep winning appeals until the UK is isolated. If the CMA blocks again or CAT upholds the CMA decision then MS can just close everywhere but the UK and pay any fines just like Ben Affleck and Matt Damon did in that movie about basketball shoes.

Why do you think it would be a hurdle for ATVI?. I am sure MS will increase the breakup fee.
Click to expand...
The FTC is unique in that it doesn't approve acquisitions, it can only sue to block them. So, either the FTC can let it pass or it needs to win in court to block the deal.

So technically the FTC hasn't blocked it yet. If the FTC wins in court, then Microsoft can appeal that decision.

If Microsoft gets to the CMA appeal process, I believe one major facet of their argument will be that the severity of the CMA's decision was too far (so far it was irrational). The bar for irrational is that no other reasonable regulator in the same position would make that decision. Again if this gets to appeal I think the CMA will point to the FTC as a regulatory body that has reached the same conclusion, but it hasn't technically blocked the acquisition yet. FTC needs to win in court first.

As for why July 18th will be the biggest hurdle to come, is because Activision will most likely be wanting to get the $3B termination fee and resume business as usual. Activision will really have to weigh how much of an increase in the break up fee is worth how much time in restricted business limbo.

And Microsoft has to be willing to lose even more money, probably in the billions to see the appeal process through. Microsoft will probably want to have a good idea of if they have a strong case for their appeal to the CMA before renegotiating. So if they don't have something ironclad I don't think they'll move forward past July 18th either. Also, Microsoft will most likely need to up how much they are paying for per share to get Activision's shareholders to agree to a couple more years of this restricted business limbo. Which is really a crapshoot, Microsoft has to guess what's a good enough price to offer to get Activision's shareholders to agree. At $105 a share Microsoft would be paying an extra $7B roughly. We don't know how much Microsoft is willing to spend to get Activision Blizzard King under their banner, and we don't know how much they're willing to lose for an unsuccessful appeal.

Negotiations are the biggest hurdle coming up.
 
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