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CI Games shares post LOTF projects with investors: "Project Survive" and "Project 3" (Hexworks ARPG due 2026)
- Thread starter Bartski
- Start date
Bartski
Gold Member
Newly published documentation confirms Project 3 to be the sequel to Lords of The Fallen, also details other future projects incl. Sniper Ghost Warrior, a GaaS game and one more soulslike in 2029.
https://www.redeye.se/research/992209/ci-games-solid-pipeline-from-2025-and-beyond
Project III (release 2026)
The studio behind Lords of the Fallen, Hexworks, intends to capitalize on the recognition and success within the Action-RPG genre. The coming title targets more ambitious gameplay options to ensure a wider audience appeal. We expect that “Project III” is the sequel to “Lord of the Fallen (2023)”. The number 3 in the project name also indicates that it is the third installment in the “Lord of the Fallen-series”. The game is expected to have a budget of around PLN120m (USD30m). The game will not be an “open-world” game like the hugely successful “Elden Ring”. Due to its relatively small budget,we think that is a wise decision. Instead, we assume that the company wants to appeal to a wider audience with a better multiplayer component and a more dynamic difficulty level. We expect c1.6m units sold, with gross sales of PLN308m (USD77m) estimating an average price per unit of USD48. This results in net sales of PLN215m (USD54m) after distribution fees of around 30%.LoF generated net sales of PLN200m during its first three months. However, the game had a development cost of 50% more than its potential predecessor. Therefore, we expect a muchbetter return on investment in “Project III”. We expect the developer can reuse much knowledge, data code, and art from LoR and therefore be more cost-efficient the second time.
Project Scorpio (release 2027)
Project Scorpio is an upcoming new IP developed by the internal studio Underdog. The game will be a premium co-op tactical shooter game expected to be released in 2027 and will follow a Games as a Service (GaaS) model. A game with a GaaS model typically has recurring revenue for many years with new content released on a regular basis. A GaaS game monetizes through in-game purchases, events, and lifecycle management. The internal studio Underdog has strengthened the team recently with many new key employees with solid experience from live service games. Live service games have been one of the major growth drivers in the industry in recent years, particularly premium AAA games, where recent multiplayer tactical shooter games have performed well, suggesting there is an underlying trend and demand regarding this sort of titles.
Sniper Ghost Warrior (release 2027-2028)
Sniper Ghost Warrior is its evergreen title and has sold more than 13 million units worldwide across its five games. Its internal studio, Underdog, and an external studio (still under review)will develop the next Sniper Ghost Warrior game, which is expected to be released in 2027 at the earliest. The new game will include co-op to further widen the player base while applying a premium post-content model to extend the game's lifetime.
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 (SGWC2) has been the company’s strongest revenue contributor in the past two years and accounted for 52% of sales in FY 2022, and 24% of sales during the first nine months in 2023e. The game has held up well since its release, supported by ongoing marketing initiatives and content updates. We estimate that the game has contributed with revenues of cPLN135m on a cumulative basis since release in June 2021. Thus, we estimate that it has generated an ROI of ~3.0x, indicating a healthy investment return. Thus, CI Games could further capitalize on an existing player base while also attracting new ones when introducing co-op. In addition, releasing new games on a proven IP mitigates the project risk, which is positive. We believe the development budget for the upcoming SGWC game to be PLN30-45m, with a marketing budget of cPLN20m, indicating a total investment of PLN50-65m. Approximately an increase of 30% versus the previous game, SGWC2. Regarding the next Sniper Ghost Warrior game, we do not incorporate any type of platform deal in our estimates but would not rule out this in the future as it is a growing trend across the industry.
Project Potential (release 2028-2029)
Another strategic pillar of CI Games is leveraging its expertise by creating games on established external IPs. Most likely, this project is expected to be within the Dark Souls/fantasy genre. We believe there are clear opportunities to cross-sell from its Lords of the Fallen user base, which should mitigate the risk. We expect the game to be released in 2028-2029.REDEYE Equity Research CI Games xx Oct 20237Publishing and other optionality
Project Expand
Project Expand aims to capitalize on its strong internal IPs and indicates that the company licenses its IPs, such as Lords of The Fallen and Sniper Ghost Warrior, to external parties. Such partnerships could include other gaming formats such as VR and mobile, transmedia segments such as movie film and TV, and other entertainment products. Licensed revenues come with low marginal costs and are thus margin accretive, even if sales are lower than own-produced games.
https://www.redeye.se/research/992209/ci-games-solid-pipeline-from-2025-and-beyond
Project III (release 2026)
The studio behind Lords of the Fallen, Hexworks, intends to capitalize on the recognition and success within the Action-RPG genre. The coming title targets more ambitious gameplay options to ensure a wider audience appeal. We expect that “Project III” is the sequel to “Lord of the Fallen (2023)”. The number 3 in the project name also indicates that it is the third installment in the “Lord of the Fallen-series”. The game is expected to have a budget of around PLN120m (USD30m). The game will not be an “open-world” game like the hugely successful “Elden Ring”. Due to its relatively small budget,we think that is a wise decision. Instead, we assume that the company wants to appeal to a wider audience with a better multiplayer component and a more dynamic difficulty level. We expect c1.6m units sold, with gross sales of PLN308m (USD77m) estimating an average price per unit of USD48. This results in net sales of PLN215m (USD54m) after distribution fees of around 30%.LoF generated net sales of PLN200m during its first three months. However, the game had a development cost of 50% more than its potential predecessor. Therefore, we expect a muchbetter return on investment in “Project III”. We expect the developer can reuse much knowledge, data code, and art from LoR and therefore be more cost-efficient the second time.
Project Scorpio (release 2027)
Project Scorpio is an upcoming new IP developed by the internal studio Underdog. The game will be a premium co-op tactical shooter game expected to be released in 2027 and will follow a Games as a Service (GaaS) model. A game with a GaaS model typically has recurring revenue for many years with new content released on a regular basis. A GaaS game monetizes through in-game purchases, events, and lifecycle management. The internal studio Underdog has strengthened the team recently with many new key employees with solid experience from live service games. Live service games have been one of the major growth drivers in the industry in recent years, particularly premium AAA games, where recent multiplayer tactical shooter games have performed well, suggesting there is an underlying trend and demand regarding this sort of titles.
Sniper Ghost Warrior (release 2027-2028)
Sniper Ghost Warrior is its evergreen title and has sold more than 13 million units worldwide across its five games. Its internal studio, Underdog, and an external studio (still under review)will develop the next Sniper Ghost Warrior game, which is expected to be released in 2027 at the earliest. The new game will include co-op to further widen the player base while applying a premium post-content model to extend the game's lifetime.
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 (SGWC2) has been the company’s strongest revenue contributor in the past two years and accounted for 52% of sales in FY 2022, and 24% of sales during the first nine months in 2023e. The game has held up well since its release, supported by ongoing marketing initiatives and content updates. We estimate that the game has contributed with revenues of cPLN135m on a cumulative basis since release in June 2021. Thus, we estimate that it has generated an ROI of ~3.0x, indicating a healthy investment return. Thus, CI Games could further capitalize on an existing player base while also attracting new ones when introducing co-op. In addition, releasing new games on a proven IP mitigates the project risk, which is positive. We believe the development budget for the upcoming SGWC game to be PLN30-45m, with a marketing budget of cPLN20m, indicating a total investment of PLN50-65m. Approximately an increase of 30% versus the previous game, SGWC2. Regarding the next Sniper Ghost Warrior game, we do not incorporate any type of platform deal in our estimates but would not rule out this in the future as it is a growing trend across the industry.
Project Potential (release 2028-2029)
Another strategic pillar of CI Games is leveraging its expertise by creating games on established external IPs. Most likely, this project is expected to be within the Dark Souls/fantasy genre. We believe there are clear opportunities to cross-sell from its Lords of the Fallen user base, which should mitigate the risk. We expect the game to be released in 2028-2029.REDEYE Equity Research CI Games xx Oct 20237Publishing and other optionality
Project Expand
Project Expand aims to capitalize on its strong internal IPs and indicates that the company licenses its IPs, such as Lords of The Fallen and Sniper Ghost Warrior, to external parties. Such partnerships could include other gaming formats such as VR and mobile, transmedia segments such as movie film and TV, and other entertainment products. Licensed revenues come with low marginal costs and are thus margin accretive, even if sales are lower than own-produced games.
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kiphalfton
Member
Kids killing each other probably wouldn't go over well with the ESRB/etc.
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