freefornow
Gold Member
[PS4] 1025K
[XB1] 1470K
[360] 415k
[PS3] 160k
[WIU] 370k
[3DS] 730k
[XB1] 1470K
[360] 415k
[PS3] 160k
[WIU] 370k
[3DS] 730k
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
December 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 13th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Afaik No. Just a miscommunication that is now in full loopback mode.
Edit: I am now a Member!
/Thanks GAF Mods
/Champagne
Aquamarine
Member
it begins
Yea I was able to skim the thread and shogun came off a bit pretentious with is response to another insider. He comment did sound as if the guy made up his DC being low. " poor management" was used if I'm not mistaken. Rather than apologize for his tone, he decided to no longer engage in number talk anymore. It says alot about a person who can't admit when they are wrong.
shinra-bansho
Member
She doesn't even go here.Damn, we need a little bit of this up in here:
Cornbread78
Member
slavesnyder
Member
Thank you Mr. Queso. I know that the retail market is declining horribly, something between 20 to 40% yoy they say. of course there are fewer publishers now and also many of the small ones who have to learn to live without NPD info as NPD (and GFK) data is horribly pricy. Hell, even getting age ratings done is a hefty price to pay for some...
No wonder the data companies do not like people who share the numbers.
Also, with digital sales getting higher and being not tracked the numbers of NPD get less relevant and accurat.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
He came back and apologized. He is stilling going to give his perspective and it is our responsibility to take these different insights and turn them into our own predictions.
CosmicQueso
Member
I'd say the reasons are flipped. Sales are lower and lower because there are fewer and fewer publishers making fewer and fewer games.
This is because costs have risen significantly as have the risks associated with not making a hit.
Release count declines and market sales decline for packaged goods correlate at an r-squared of .99.
And getting more expensive. Just like newspapers, the price for the remaining audience has increased to try and offset having less of it.
No doubt.
NPD day used to be huge for everyone in the industry. Now it's just another day with an email from the poor analyst slog tasked with running the reports.
What some on GAF think: Senior executives at MS and Sony cowered in a conference room, eagerly tallying the results on big war room screens plotting the big PR statement.
What really happens: Slug in analytics runs the report, sees something they find interesting, emails PR "hey so yeah we sold X last month. Y share, Over/under competition by Z". Exec sees email, says yay or nay on press release. Maybe someone tweets. Within a couple hours, no one is thinking about it anymore.
theprodigy
Member
of course you would try to start shit again
Check the time I posted and calm the hell down. And are you seriously tracking my posts? Get a life. I was made aware that he apologized after I posted and haven't commented on it sense. There also wasn't any malicious about my post. I simply provided a synopsis of what transpired.
Also what do you mean you " you would"? Block me if you have a problem with my posts since you apparently are at odds with whatever I say.
You're only missed the conversation by 2 1/2 hours and claim that I'm somehow instigating. You're laughable
You are three hours too late kid. Nice try though. Now whose keeping it going?
Seriously, wtf is your problem? This shit is done, stop trying to keep it going.
shinra-bansho
Member
Fewer titles, higher ceilings is how Mr Harker put it.
I'd guess the most dramatic illustration of this is GTAV topping 40M units, in just over a year.
Or Ubisoft earning 2-3x the revenue on like half as many games now as circa 2005, with Assassin's Creed obviously.
Or Bethesda going from like 3M for Oblivion to like 20M for Skyrim (example stolen from Nirolak).
From revisiting that discussion, I queried him at the time as to whether the larger publishers could actually see this as a positive. To which he responded that those who saw this coming essentially restructured, reorganised, adopted a blockbuster model and have come out on top.
Those who didn't or couldn't have bitten the dust (THQ) or have seen a dramatic decline in their relevance (Japanese pubs).
I guess the question that follows intuitively though is whether a market fueled largely only by these blockbusters, by these fewer titles earning more, can be sustained. At what point does it become too few, or what straw breaks the camel in terms of increasing end-use monetization for the fewer titles.
I'd guess the most dramatic illustration of this is GTAV topping 40M units, in just over a year.
Or Ubisoft earning 2-3x the revenue on like half as many games now as circa 2005, with Assassin's Creed obviously.
Or Bethesda going from like 3M for Oblivion to like 20M for Skyrim (example stolen from Nirolak).
From revisiting that discussion, I queried him at the time as to whether the larger publishers could actually see this as a positive. To which he responded that those who saw this coming essentially restructured, reorganised, adopted a blockbuster model and have come out on top.
Those who didn't or couldn't have bitten the dust (THQ) or have seen a dramatic decline in their relevance (Japanese pubs).
I guess the question that follows intuitively though is whether a market fueled largely only by these blockbusters, by these fewer titles earning more, can be sustained. At what point does it become too few, or what straw breaks the camel in terms of increasing end-use monetization for the fewer titles.
The Shogun
Banned
It can as you've seen with the rise of indies. The ones who suffer bad from the current market are the in between titles. The ones that aren't AAA blockbusters but still cost a decent amount. The room for those titles to succeed has been greatly hampered.
Its the land of massive blockbusters and small indie teams now days. If your in between that then god speed and best of luck.
December is usually doubled but some are saying that won't be the case this year.
Eh. My prediction for XB1 and PS4 is 1.5 and 1.2.
I was originally going for 2 million for XB1 based off Novembers sales.
Loved Birth of Isaac
Off topic: Sorry didn't know everything was settled (in new post screen).I Value all of the insiders' insight. Wasn't trying to stir up conflict contrary to one 3 hr late poster and his sidekick.
<3 u
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
If it comes to that I'm done with gaming. Technically I don't have a current-gen system atm but I was planning on a PS4. Sony's just as suspectible to adapting that model as the others, which I hope doesn't happen.
If I find out some shit between now and getting one that paints that kind of dire picture, stick a fork in me. I'm done.
Final Verdict
Member
Haha, that's hilarious, but true in a lot of cases!
Final Verdict
Member
This is very true (at least I think so).
It seems that those in between games never turn out well...it seems like they struggle the most.
IndoAssassin
Banned
Did Bound by Blade and Lords of the Fallen developers turn a profit at all?
Oops meant Flame
Well Lords of the Fallen 2 is happening, so maybe they found some profit.
Ghost_Messiah
Member
Microsoft will take the month without a shadow of a doubt. Similar margin and unit lead to November. December holds identical parameters to November (holiday season; Microsoft's temporary price cut still in effect; forward momentum from November). Microsoft will win the holiday season but then it'll be back to PS4 domination come January. That should last until probably E3 when we'll see how many exclusives Microsoft have panic-bought and whether they'll introduce a permanent price reduction or announce any previously unrevealed heavy hitters for late 2015.
Sony could just wipe off $100 dollars from the PS4's price and probably dominate the entirety of next year. Depends whether they have the financial capability to do so.
Sony could just wipe off $100 dollars from the PS4's price and probably dominate the entirety of next year. Depends whether they have the financial capability to do so.
Prediction? Or insider's knowledge
spatenfloot
Member
The problem is budgeting. If you can't make a really good AAA game, don't spend millions making a crappy one. You won't have the sales to profit. If they adjusted their budget for the type of game they can make well, they would be fine.
EmptySpace
Banned
as far as i am concerned, slashing your price by 80 bucks during the most profitable month of the whole year isn't the definition of winning, especially if the competition has millions of more units sold to consumers.
on the same note, we have had claims that xbox overstuffed (or retailers overestimating demand) their supply channels and given the fact that xbox refuses to give sold through numbers, the numbers that they will announce will have to be taken with a grain of salt.
sadly, we'll never know how many asscreed xbons are actually inside homes vs. inside warehouses.
IndoAssassin
Banned
Problem is most AAA developers don't have the luxury of time to come up with great ideas for their game. It's one thing to brainstorm ideas and put it on paper, it's another to make it work propeely and be fun also within the timeframe and budget allotted.
There just isn't enough money and time for AAA games to flourish in the ceativity department. And unfortunately it is only going to get worse.
The only innovation you are going to see from them now on is how they can make their microtransactions more enticing.
Did Wolfenstein have an AAA budget?
Ghost_Messiah
Member
Just a bold prediction. I have no insider's knowledge nor connections. Waiting on the numbers on Thursday just like you guys.
Good points. I do agree. I don't class Microsoft's forceful actions leading to them winning; it's more aggressive pricing and desperate financial moves to survive in the NA market now that Sony has eroded the lead they generated with the 360. Microsoft are definitely winning recent NPD battles but as you say they're losing the war overall.
This year will definitely be interesting if Microsoft are going to remain this competitive. I'm sure it'll be fascinating to witness as always.
CosmicQueso
Member
That's the question alright, but there are no other options.
Consumers are speaking loudly right now. The big games are not only selling more than in prior years, but people are also paying much more for Deluxe Editions with season passes and CEs.
So total spend at launch for the biggest titles is well above $60 now.
And the mid-tier titles with no season pass or DLC packages are doing very poorly. They sell fewer units with lower average pricing.
And don't forget, with Digital becoming higher and higher share of Day 1 (25-30%) and over the life of a product, that helps with profitability.
So is it sustainable? Maybe. Fewer titles, higher average pricing due to inclusion of add on content and digital distribution rather than play and trade.
On the other hand, consumers could reject all this, or streaming could take off, or subscription models could replace purchase models... All I know is that whatever we think the market will look like in 10 years will be nothing like what the market actually ends up being.
Long post, yikes.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
You're forgetting that Sony's PS4 deals were considerably better in December, and some people who work in retail here have said things looked a lot closer this month.
Also wasn't it already said that the old Nov->Dec trend is outdated?
Gbpackers31
Member
Almost forgot.
[360] 350k
[3DS] 700k
[PS3] 110k
[PS4] 1100k
[WIU] 515k
[XB1] 1300k
[360] 350k
[3DS] 700k
[PS3] 110k
[PS4] 1100k
[WIU] 515k
[XB1] 1300k
Not doubting, but do you have links to peeps saying it looks a lot closer?
Welfare
Member
→ → A A ↓ ↓it begins
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
They made a prequel?! (sorry)
↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A, Shirley?
slavesnyder
Member
You are so unromantic.
Shu said as much near the end of ps3 generation. Retail console games on disc will have to be blockbusters or they will fail. I think GameStop and the console industry can survive on that, assuming they can keep attracting a new crop of 13 year olds each Christmas.
It's not all bad news tho. If the other consoles follow Sony's lead in courting non-retail game developers, there will also be a decent library of games on console for those who find ego stroking AAA RPG based killfests with expensive kill animations and hundred million dollar marketing boring. And failing that, we still have the PC and it is still open.
Wolfie was AA, and didn't sell particularly well. I don't think any of Beth's recent AA offerings have, BTW, so I wouldn't hold your breath for an evil within 2, for example.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Well... I guess they were setting up a new SKU for North America. Good game, SCEA. Now do the same for The Order 1886 and Bloodborne, please^^
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2015...e-last-of-us-remastered-for-399-99/#sf6891302
Edit: they are including a free DL code for the Last of Us free with all PS4s
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2015...e-last-of-us-remastered-for-399-99/#sf6891302
Edit: they are including a free DL code for the Last of Us free with all PS4s
Ah, at least it's not DriveClub. Good move, Sony.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
I'd have to do some checking, but I remember Abdiel saying they saw big slowdown on XBO sales in their stores at some point in December.
Before the price went back up. Fredsyt maybe said similar but that was regarding this month I think? The posts are somewhere in this thread so I'll have to search for them a bit later.
Mind you nothing's concrete on them, but even ignoring that PS4 was a lot closer to XBO on Amazon's hourly in December, and as said they had those solid deals. Natural assumption but given their deals were better in December while MS's were the same as November, I'd expect an increase in PS4 sales compared to XBO.
Maybe not enough to win, but definitely to the point where there's nowhere near a 400k valley between them.
Then again, PS4 could be supply-constrained in NA :/
Just gonna quote myself here. Emphasis mine.
Are you talking about the PS4 TLOU bundle?