StrongBlackVine
Banned
Final Fantasy XIV rebounded nicely.
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February 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Final Fantasy XIV rebounded nicely.
Welfare
Member
Division will do more than Watch Dogs in its debut NPD. I think it will be the biggest March NPD debut in years (over 1.3m).
Completely forgot about that one. That did rebound.
I'd have no idea if it's bigger here, but anecdotally, there is more talk about the Division than what Watch Dogs got.
Completely forgot about that one. That did rebound.
I'd have no idea if it's bigger here, but anecdotally, there is more talk about the Division than what Watch Dogs got.
slavesnyder
Member
Thank you, Ryng, nice bunch of numbers as always.
Did not have the Division on my radar for a long time, thought it would rather underperform. But marketing did a great job and it's possible that this game will be really successful. Watch_dogs should be the one to beat. I think it can do it. Install base is so much bigger now, too.
Reviews will tip the scale.
Higher metascore will win. 77 for watch_dogs is doable.
Did not have the Division on my radar for a long time, thought it would rather underperform. But marketing did a great job and it's possible that this game will be really successful. Watch_dogs should be the one to beat. I think it can do it. Install base is so much bigger now, too.
Reviews will tip the scale.
Higher metascore will win. 77 for watch_dogs is doable.
"debut NPD" means May NPD( 1.26 million) ?
If so that's seem almost a given, but talks about an intere first month ( to be fair 4 weeks VS 6 weeks but still), which gonna win for you?
1.76 million Watch Dogs in 6 weeks, that's seem a huge number for The Division... you'r bet?
Obliterator
Member
Its entirely possible. I was leaning that way, now I'm not 100% sure. I'll have a stronger opinion in a few days
Welfare
Member
I don't think it can manage that unless word of mouth is REALLY good.
Don't forget a very important thing. Watch Dogs was on PS3 and 360 too. And the old gen was still strong back in 2014. Yes, now the install base of PS4 and XB1 is bigger, but Watch Dogs got surely a bigger install base.
I think this is one of the bigger reason why The Division won't beat Watch_Dogs in a worldwide battle...
Well yeah, recension and reviews will help too. Too bad we still have nothing about The Division...
Thanks for that.
So, at least for what you heard, in the US The Division hype could MAYBE be bigger than Watch Dogs?
If so, that's nice.
Like i said, here in Italy even if The Division seem big, is absolutely not even close with Watch Dogs...I mean, i'm serius. In Italy, Watch Dogs hype on the real life with my friends and on internet was INSANE. Yes, way bigger even than Destiny...
I guess in USA the situation is very difference.
If i understand correctly, you'r prediction is 1.3 million? If so, that's seem a fair bet... but i wanna be optimist and say 1.5 million.
Chobel
Member
Welfare
Member
C'mon, you can't just back down from this
Nothing to back down from
The Division will have 4 weeks in the March NPD, so after that, the legs will have to be really good for it to hit 1.7m in April, if it actually does do >1.3m in March.
C'mon, you can't just back down from this
It's probabily because my english suck but i don't get...
The Mad Draklor
Member
Not to mention, the initial release was very bad. Square really turned it around with A Realm Reborn.
Gunslinger
Member
so division will get a shot at the charts for this month? Since it came out today? Will be crazy if it takes the no.1 spot with just 1 day lol.
Welfare
Member
Oh no. It's in the March NPD. February tracking ended on the 27th.
Gunslinger
Member
oh ok.
After a nice discussion on Twitter, i thought would be cool post what Zhuge believe about The Division as well.
He expect it to sell similar ( or maybe even a bit better) than Watch Dogs worldwide, and he expect USA sales to be better.
But he talked about lifetime... So, maybe at launch the situation will be difference.
He expect it to sell similar ( or maybe even a bit better) than Watch Dogs worldwide, and he expect USA sales to be better.
But he talked about lifetime... So, maybe at launch the situation will be difference.
ethomaz
Banned
After all the rework I can say the game is amazing.
Omnistalgic
Member
Indeed it is...I need to jump back into it
Omnistalgic
Member
hmmmm...this is pretty logical and worth investigating if we could find sources.
Did Capcom just say screw Ono's plan to go free to play and say release what we have a full price for the money? Wish we could get some input here, I honestly don't think anyone at the office believed the product would be well received but they released it anyway. I get the FGC issue, but honestly calling SFV early access and selling at full price digital only would have have satisfied us. Pleasing casuals was just not on the menu.
I think how quickly SFV has a free to play version will tell us.
Gunslinger
Member
Ffxiv will go down in history as how to successfully turn around a complete failure. It now has lot of active sub imo. First p2p success in a post WoW world. Where as big budget p2p like swtor and ESO failed miserably swtor moreso imo.
Welfare
Member
Oh yeah, time's up for predictions.
ESO is still kicking after the Tamriel Unlimited update and that isn't even F2P.
ESO is still kicking after the Tamriel Unlimited update and that isn't even F2P.
Gunslinger
Member
It failed on p2p model that's what I was saying. It's b2p now.
CosmicQueso
Member
Wait what? Why?
SF5 released as half a game. Many menu features are still unavailable. The division seems to be running fairly well at launch.
SF5 is a game designed for 1v1 play, and is very strict about how it can be played. The other is multiplayer and can be played in a variety of ways.
Obviously one game has been far more appealing to consumers than the other so far.
So what's the problem? And what does any of this have to do with modern game development?
Many of SF5's challenges are self inflicted business decisions. What does any of this have to do with the division?
Its a perfect example of quality of content vs quantity of content. The Division is stuffed t the gills with repetitive quests and awkward game design. There's a substantial amount of stuff but that stuff quickly becomes repetitive and mundane. Whereas SFV might be short on content but what is there is refined to a T and a blast to play over and over. Of course The Division had a more expensive (and effective) marketing campaign that succeeded in whupping up consumer hype based upon comparisons to products that are very much unlike what it offers so it will reap the rewards. Its hard to stay positive about the industry when your gaming interests seem to diverge more and more from the mainstream blockbusters.
I mean Digimon Cyber Sleuth is hands down my favorite RPG thus far this gen. Which sounds crazy as someone who isnt a digimon fan at all but its true. And yet despite it being such a fantastic JRPG I'm facing the reality that it will be lucky to chart at all. Its depressing.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Is that supposed to be something inherently negative for SFV and the opposite for The Division? Or were you just pointing out two different methods to show how far apart they are from one another?
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
errm...what Free to play game launches without a in-game store to purchase cosmetics?
Thats the worse thing about SFV. Even if it was a situation like Evolve, where the game is using F2P practises in a $60 title (or designed like a f2p title sold as a $60 one), the content is still not there.
I think its eaiser to accept the simplier reasoning. Capcom wanted the game out on a specfic date come hell or high water. Onos team need more time and they were denied.
If it does get a F2p version, it will be a reaction to failing at retail. I think they will need more than costumes and the odd fighter to sustain that however. Nothing shown so far that they have the art team to contiously churn out content like DOA: Core fighters (pretty much the only successful F2p title in the genre).
This is a fallacy. Why would a tournament series increase sales in the only segment of Capcoms market that dont have a problem with the state the game launched in?
I think the last few weeks have shown that the FGC are very very happy with SFV. Its everyone else thats the problem.
Welfare
Member
There will always be genres that fall out of the mainstream appeal. Just looking at the US, platformers were everywhere in the 80's-90's, and have since fallen out of popularity besides Mario, and I guess Sonic (future is bleak though), JRPG's were a craze, and now the only popular ones are basically Pokemon and Final Fantasy,. Mortal Kombat and Smash seem to be the last fighting game franchises that are actually popular.
Now, people want Shooters, FPS or TPS, and open world games. It has nothing to do with development or budget, it is just what the masses want.
Street Fighter V's "quality" means absolute jack if there is little to no content. Nothing well sell on quality alone because average joe wants that $60 purchase to actually mean something. Why buy SFV for $60 if I can go buy the Division for the same price, which has much more content and will leave me more satisfied than SFV could ever hope for right now?
Do I spend $60 on a bite sized meal that tastes delicious or spend $60 on the standard dinner that lasts longer?
Now, people want Shooters, FPS or TPS, and open world games. It has nothing to do with development or budget, it is just what the masses want.
Street Fighter V's "quality" means absolute jack if there is little to no content. Nothing well sell on quality alone because average joe wants that $60 purchase to actually mean something. Why buy SFV for $60 if I can go buy the Division for the same price, which has much more content and will leave me more satisfied than SFV could ever hope for right now?
Do I spend $60 on a bite sized meal that tastes delicious or spend $60 on the standard dinner that lasts longer?
ethomaz
Banned
Your comparison makes no sense to me because the state of the game have nothing to do with the increase of sales due a new tournament serie supporting it.
And yes the support from ESL can increase sales like the EVO support do.
The same will happen if MLG announces support too... more tournaments, more exposure, more people watching, more potential buyers, more sales.
It is a non-brainier.
Welfare
Member
Let's see how this works for Halo 5 then. The game gets monthly updates that add loads of content each time and has a championship tournament with a $2.5m prize pool this month. If Halo can't get a boost in sales with that in the US, SF has no chance.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
My point is, the people who watch these tournaments are normally the people who already have bought the title or are interested in buying the title.
Being a marquee tournament title is not going to turn around the games fortunes. It may make the case for continued balance support, but thats about it.
Exactly. The tourney circuit is a additional revenue stream and advertising/merchandising portal for the people already invested in a title, it doesnt sell well to people not part of that scene, even ones who watch as a curisosity.
Perfect example :- I bet half this forum knows what Evo moment #37 is, but that didnt translate to SF3TS:OE being a massive hit. It sold mostly to people who were already massive third strike fans.
slavesnyder
Member
you are right, unfortunately.
It's like saying a long book is per se better than a short one. But it seems to be human nature.
For the record, to Welfare you and all the others commenting on it: I know he's right and I know SFV is pretty much fucked at this point but that doesn't mean I need to like it. To me, it's fucking depressing.
slavesnyder
Member
More people read 50 Shades of Grey than The Road
More people watched Hangover 3 than Juno
More people follow Crapgamer than RexNovis on Twitter
Don't even start to get angry about this. You will never stop.
Man you really know how to cheer a guy up don't you *sigh*
I'll get over it sooner or later. Just a bit down in the dumps at the moment is all.
Sorry to sidetrack the discussion guys! Please by all means carry on.
See I still don't think it was "the wrong decision" for Sony.
Are fighters much less ppular than they once were? Probably, but SF is still a huge brand name, and now Sony will be associated to it through championships and updates for years to come.
I would also posit that, in spite of a (more than) rocky launch, SFV still has the potential to do well through its DLC and subsequent "Ultimate" releases.
In the end it's also not about a specific title, but about library and perception. Real or not (it's not), Sony has had to deal with the "PS4 has no games" meme since its release, and little by little they are padding the library with high profile console exclusive titles to fight that imo.
2016 will be a big year (probably definitive, barring delays) for that in fact.
LordRaptor
Member
I believe all that The Divisions success represents - like Destiny before it - is the thirst of console owners for light MMO experiences optimised for controller inputs.
e:
Console owners have played a streetfighter type game once a year since the SNES pretty much. They've never really played a military themed WoW clone.
CosmicQueso
Member
More the latter.
I hear what you're saying, but this is highly subjective, no? And for the mass market, a game like the Division is much more approachable than a game like SF5 is.
SF5 is a game hypertargeted at its own core audience. So much so that it launched in a bare bones state just so that a tournament series that a vast majority of game consumers have never heard of could launch on time. So much so that many features on the main menu are still not selectable by people who pay $60 for the game.
Had they made a "Capcom Cup Edition" or something, just with the bare bones content they've launched with, along with some messaging stating that it wasn't the full release, maybe it's a different conversation. But they launched it with the name SF5, and in the state they did.
SF5 may be a blast to play over and over if one is already versed in how SF works. But anyone who may be new to the series will instantly be overwhelmed. There's no training mode yet, no challenge tower... you're just thrown into matches having no idea how the mechanics of the specials even work. How could one expect that game to find a mass audience when it doesn't do anything to be attractive to the mass market?
But 6 million people played the beta and the response to that beta was generally quite positive. That's not done through marketing. Getting people to try the beta might be, but once they do, either they like it or they don't, right? There's something here that people seem to be liking.
I love spreadsheet sport sims and turn based WW2 wargames like those Slitherine makes. I'm positive about the industry because those things keep getting made. It's the most diverse market ever. But what is no longer a diverse market is the fucking packaged games market. Release count is 200 games. Most of those are going to be mass market, Walmart shelf friendly. That's just how it is these days. The packaged market is not where one should go to see the diversity of the interactive entertainment industry in 2016.
But why would it chart? Again, it's a game targeted at a very specific niche audience. If they did their planning right, sales from that niche should provide an expected return and all is right in the world. A game does not have to chart to be successful, and a game not charting should have no impact on how someone who likes that game views the industry.
The fact enough audience exists that making a game like that is an appealing venture for the company making it says a lot of good things about the state of the market. But Joe Schmo Walmart shopper in the rust belt isn't going to be attracted to a game like that. What are you gonna do.
ethomaz
Banned
CosmicQueso
There is training mode in SFV.
You are throw into the marches like every single fighting games since the first one... playing the game vs somebody else (that include CPU or human).
I don't see fo exemple difference between SFIV and SFV in terms how the game throw you into... to be fair SFV is more friendly and have a better tutorial.
There is training mode in SFV.
You are throw into the marches like every single fighting games since the first one... playing the game vs somebody else (that include CPU or human).
I don't see fo exemple difference between SFIV and SFV in terms how the game throw you into... to be fair SFV is more friendly and have a better tutorial.
CosmicQueso
Member
The training mode is barebone, and designed for serious players to get better. It's not designed like a Challenge Tower in MK, where players have to learn systems by playing through different scenarios.
Or has that been added since launch? I was under the impression this wasn't getting added until the big March update.
That training mode literally tells you nothing more than what the most basic of basics do... and does nothing to explain anything else.
Smash has a more robust tutorial in its opening video, all 60 seconds of it, that explains every move type (jabs, tilts, smash attacks, specials), blast zones (launch strength vs. %), and what "recovering" is, and that's for a game that can literally be played by randomly just hitting buttons and have stuff happen while it rains bombs and pokeballs on the most nonsensical of stages.
ethomaz
Banned
Challenges that will be added in March update is not what you are thinking.
Training mode is there even more complete than previous SFs.
The Challenges is a way to make some tasks to win more FMs... You won't make you learn the system.
Training mode do what it needs to do... a free space to you train... you can set a lot situations and try the moves/combos to get better.
It is complete.
The tutorial tells you what you need to know... I never saw a tutorial before SFV to be fair... previous SFs didn't have it and to be fair they never needed one.
The complains abou Arcade and others things I think it is valid but training and tutorial are fine and do the job way better than previous games.
BTW the only different thing in SFV over the previous games was that it was released first on consoles. If it was release on Arcades with only Arcade Mode available people should be very happy with what it plays.
It is dumb how people is over sensitive with a game that plays the best you can find in a fighting game... and that is the most important part of it... the others features are only not needed add-one.
CosmicQueso
Member
So you think that the current training mode is adequate so a new person to the series can run through that and be ready to compete online and have a good time doing so?
I find this very hard to believe.
Welfare
Member
That's fine and all, but Street Fighter isn't the only FG franchise out now. Mortal Kombat, Smash, and KI are much better at teaching casuals the basics of the game.
SFV was built for the competitive crowd in mind. This much is clear. It does nothing to help a beginner or casual learn the game more than what other FG are doing.
The other modes are essential for the non hardcore crowd. It's not "dumb" to complain that a game has little to nothing for a big section of the player base.
ethomaz
Banned
How do you get good in a fighting game? Fighting people... no CPU will ever make you good if you didn't start to play against real people.
The training had the only purpose... you train to get the right timing of the moves/combos.
It was never supposed to tell you how to play against humans lol there is no way to tell you that because you need to get experience in real human battles to find your way to play.
Playing the dam game against humans is the teaming mode ever created in a fighting game.
Maybe in lived in a age that people did got better playing against humans.
Tutorial is not suppose to teach you how to play against others lol it just to learn the basics.
Training is to you get the right timing for the moves/combo.. it is not supposed to teach you how to get good.
Play the dam game to get good... casual or competitive.
It was fun in the past and it is fun today... you don't need to overthink about others ways/modes or even try recreate the wheel... the simple is the best... there is no best tutorial and training than VS mode (offline or online).
I already hate that you have a option to see finish moved on screen... I liked to discover myself the fatalities in old MK for example... it was awesome.