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[zenosparadox]

Not going to happen. I predict at most half.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

That is way to high i can see it doing 5 to 7 million lifetime.
SE always going crazy with sales numbers.

 

[Dreamwriter]

if it gets nothing but 10/10 reviews I can see it doing maybe 8 mil at the most in a year

Final Fantasy XIII did almost 8 million.

 

[Instro]

Bethesda's games gained traction over seven iterations overwhelmingly on the strength of their incredible legs (even look at Skyrim, a 7 million launch shipment to a 20+ million LTD) to the point that so many people were sold on their brand of game design that Fallout 4 could achieve the debut it did.

That was not a success driven by commercials, but the continued strength of the products themselves.

I never said otherwise. I also never said that this game would be a 20+ million seller. I implied the game needed that kind of marketing campaign to do well, not that it could match a Fallout if it had good marketing. Are you arguing that marketing didn't help turn ES and Fallout into the successes they are...?

 

[OléGunner]

Which does Gaf think is bigger as a western franchise at this point in time, MGS or FF?

I'm thinking both this gens games will achieve similar sales.

 

[potatohead]

.

Which does Gaf think is bigger as a western franchise at this point in time, MGS or FF?

I'm thinking both this gens games will achieve similar sales.

If this was asked in the PS2 days.... easily FF. PS1 days? Even more so FF.

Today? MGS, but not by much, and mostly because of how FF has drastically fallen off, and even then MGSV did good but not stellar.

 

[NHarmonic.]

This isn't happening in a looot of time i think.

 

[Romars202129]

Might just mean they know its going to lose money. At a certain point in development, they must have figured they'd get hosed less than outright cancellation. Plus, those assets are probably being put to work for Kingdom Hearts 3, and if they're smart, a sequel to this, which should help mitigate the loss.
Course, if people don't love this game, oh boy

 

[flaxknuckles]

This is not happening at all. They are crazy.

 

[Stormhammer]

No chance, would have been a stretch in the PS2 gen. But current gen? No JRPG has even got close.

I mean, has any current gen JRPG been Final Fantasy though? I think the broader appeal this game is going for will help its sales, and I predict it selling


XV-million

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

I mean, has any current gen JRPG been Final Fantasy though?

We haven't had big budget jrpg at all this gen so idk what he means

 

[KillerMan91]

Bethesda's games gained traction over seven iterations overwhelmingly on the strength of their incredible legs (even look at Skyrim, a 7 million launch shipment to a 20+ million LTD) to the point that so many people were sold on their brand of game design that Fallout 4 could achieve the debut it did.

That was not a success driven by commercials, but the continued strength of the products themselves.

Anecdotally Skyrim had pretty huge marketing campaign though. It's pretty rare to see game ads in Finnish tv (especially for RPGs) and Skyrim had tons of them. Not saying that commercials were the only reason for the huge success though.

 

[.JayZii]

We haven't had big budget jrpg at all this gen so idk what he means

He's not technically wrong then. Still pretty pointless to say, though.

 

[Dark Cloud]

There's only one JRPG that pulls 10+ million off.

Maybe if FFXV released on the NX handheld (if there's one) it could be possibly since handhelds are still big in Japan.

But PS4 and X1 can't do it alone.

 

[wheeplash]

 

[Lothars]

And judging by the demo thread, that bubble's already burst for about 3/4 of GAF

I don't believe that for a second. This game will sell tons. The demo thread has since negativity but it seems par for the course lately on any jrpg thread. I don't think it will hit the 10 million but I could see it hitting at least 5 million sales fairly quickly.

 

[Coffee Dog]

A game that is this overtly anime and numbers focused is not going to make ten mil. Only FF7 could have that kind of western pull.

I mean, that's likely why they're just remaking FF7.

 

[Akuun]

Not realistic at all, but also not all that surprising considering how much time the game spent in development hell.

Time to port this thing like a motherfucker and sell tons of official figurines or something.

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

He's not technically wrong then. Still pretty pointless to say, though.

Yea thats wat mean we cant gauge it this gen is all im saying. Im thinking 7-8mil but im not gonna completely dismiss 10. They obviously are going to have the marketing down. That just leaves them to produce a good game

 

[Reveirg]

10 million for a series after FF13 trilogy that clearly damaged the brand and a game (FFXV) that has been in development hell for so long is just noooot gonna happen. Especially if said game doesn't hit all the right notes to capture both the old and new audiences, East and West, etc etc.

On the flip side, they then successfully resurrected a failed MMO and broke sales and registration records.

The brand isn't as damaged as some people pretend it to be.

 

[Fine Ham Abounds]

And that's why using GAF as any sort of metric is stupid. The demo imo wasn't a problem. Combat will take some getting used to but other than that I have no issues with what it was. Unfortunately certain topics have become hyperbole central.

I went in expecting virtually nothing and having not played the other demos, so it was hard for me to really be disappointed. It was obvious as soon as you hit the first pedal that it was primarily a tech demo, so I just rolled with it. Certainly not something that alone is going to excite people who have been trying to pretend they don't care for 10 years though.

I don't believe that for a second. This game will sell tons. The demo thread has since negativity but it seems par for the course lately on any jrpg thread. I don't think it will hit the 10 million but I could see it hitting at least 5 million sales fairly quickly.

Oh, there's just a bunch of people who had their expectations dashed. It's perfectly valid for them to be pissed even though it's a free demo. I didn't share those expectations, so whatever.

I'm going with 1.3 million at launch and 3 after a few months.

 

[kswiston]

There's only one JRPG that pulls 10+ million off.

Maybe if FFXV released on the NX handheld (if there's one) it could be possibly since handhelds are still big in Japan.

But PS4 and X1 can't do it alone.

Japan isn't as relevant to Final Fantasy's overall success as people make it out to be. This isn't 1994 when Japanese sales are 80% of the game's WW sales.

Final Fantasy XIII + XIII-2 are in the 10-11M range combined with what? 2.5-3M of that coming from Japan?

I expect the ratio for FFXV to be even more skewed.

 

[kvn]

Best reply.

 

[OléGunner]

.

If this was asked in the PS2 days.... easily FF. PS1 days? Even more so FF.

Today? MGS, but not by much, and mostly because of how FF has drastically fallen off, and even then MGSV did good but not stellar.

Yeah totally agree.

I also see MGS as more palatable (for lack of a better word) for western audiences as an action stealth game.

Man Square are ballsy targeting 10mil..

 

[Cidd]

Ha, they would have sold 10 million if they released it 10 yrs ago, just saying.

 

[kenta]

However many copies FFXV sells, I'm inclined to think KH3 will outsell it

 

[Vamphuntr]

They've already poisoned the well really good with 3 Final Fantasy XIII games and Type-0 from the director that is bringing you XV.

Like what was said in the thread already, to reach 10 million sales they will need something really good quality wise and all the footage and demo shown so far don't really point to this. The Japanese characters design and story in a western style open world is probably going to be a turn off off for many people even fan of the series. Tabata has made pretty janky stuff so far battle system wise (Type-0 is an unholy mess) so I expect problem on that front too.

 

[synce]

I think they'd be lucky to hit half of that based on the demo. I wonder if FF15 will end up being SE's Spirits Within. Who will they merge with then?

 

[Nirolak]

I never said otherwise. I also never said that this game would be a 20+ million seller. I implied the game needed that kind of marketing campaign to do well, not that it could match a Fallout if it had good marketing. Are you arguing that marketing didn't help turn ES and Fallout into the successes they are...?

Skyrim had a pretty ambitious advertisement campaign. Fus-roh-dah playing over and over again in Best Buys, 11/11/11, TV commercials, enormous Times Square murals, etc.

Anecdotally Skyrim had pretty huge marketing campaign though. It's pretty rare to see game ads in Finnish tv (especially for RPGs) and Skyrim had tons of them. Not saying that commercials were the only reason for the huge success though.

They did, and they do help drive sales, but I guess my sentiment here is that if a game isn't sufficiently attractive, even spending $100 million marketing it isn't going to make it sell really well, otherwise every game would simply do that.

Or, put another way, I feel the game has to prove itself before commercials work as a strong sales magnifier, and thus that it mostly comes down to the type of product it is rather than its advertising campaign.

Minecraft is a nice example of a game taking off with no real marketing, and Borderlands 1 did upwards of 6 million copies with one week of television ads.

Advertisements exist to help build awareness of a product, but then consumers tend to look at the product itself before deciding whether they actually want it, especially when it's something that costs as much as video games do. This is where the quality and appeal of the product itself becomes all-important to converting advertising generated interest into actual sales.

 

[Kain]

Persona 5 might sell 2M worldwide and I'm sure half of that is a success for them. Helps to put things in perspective.

 

[kswiston]

The Final Fantasy XIII saga has moved over 1M copies combined on Steam now, even though everyone has been aware of their quality for years. I think people overestimate the amount of damage that has been done to the brand.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Japan isn't as relevant to Final Fantasy's overall success as people make it out to be. This isn't 1994 when Japanese sales are 80% of the game's WW sales.

Final Fantasy XIII + XIII-2 are in the 10-11M range combined with what? 2.5-3M of that coming from Japan?

I expect the ratio for FFXV to be even more skewed.

That's cool. I understand what you're saying, but I'm going off of what Tabata said. He said FFXV has to sell 10 million. Not FFXV-2 or FFXV-3-if there are any.

 

[charlequin]

Easy 10 million sold:

- PS4 version --- 5 million
- Xbone version --- 3 million
- PC release --- 1 million
- later on, a port to NX. *Nintendo fans are starved for a real Final Fantasy --- 1 to 3 million

Do you see how my educated guess totals up to the # S-E needs? The brand awareness for Final Fantasy has grown since VII released, so it's not crazy to think XV can beat it.

Even this is conservative.

- Blackberry OS --- 14 million as people continue the experience on their business phones
- Martian release --- 27 million as Martians rush to experience their first Final Fantasy
- Cats --- 150 million because easily one out of every four cats is gonna need to play this game, right?

 

[.JayZii]

Yea thats wat mean we cant gauge it this gen is all im saying. Im thinking 7-8mil but im not gonna completely dismiss 10. They obviously are going to have the marketing down. That just leaves them to produce a good game

I honestly have no idea how it will do, and don't feel very comfortable making any definitive sales projections. Should be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

 

[Servbot24]

10 million to make a profit maybe. They can still sell less than that and have the game be a long term benefit if it restores the franchise's status in the industry.

 

[Demoncarnotaur]

Yikes.

That latest demo isn't going to do it any favors..

 

[Fine Ham Abounds]

Even this is conservative.

- Blackberry OS --- 14 million as people continue the experience on their business phones
- Martian release --- 27 million as Martians rush to experience their first Final Fantasy
- Cats --- 150 million because easily one out of every four cats is gonna need to play this game, right?

For some reason this post made me realize Girl reached Pluto in the time this game has been in development

 

[Vuze]

No way. Are there even any PC/PS4/XO-only titles which sold 10mil+?

Fallout 4 sold 12 million on launch day alone.

Oh wow.

 

[sora87]

They're some lofty expectations, I guess they pressed the FF7R button just in case.

 

[Vinc]

No way. Are there even any PC/PS4/XO-only titles which sold 10mil+?

Fallout 4 sold 12 million physical copies to retailers on launch day alone.

 

[deriks]

They're expecting too much imo

5 million is more accurate, but 10 will be hard

Well, I'll do my part buying on day one

 

[Toth]

The Final Fantasy XIII saga has moved over 1M copies combined on Steam now, even though everyone has been aware of their quality for years. I think people overestimate the amount of damage that has been done to the brand.

Bingo. 14's success alone is enough to say whatever damage 1.0 did has been repaired.

 

[LordOcidax]

10 million to make a profit maybe. They can still sell less than that and have the game be a long term benefit if it restores the franchise's status in the industry.

Based on the demo of FFXV that i played this morning... Yikes... Good luck Square..

 

[vainglorious]

Speaking of FF7R - a demo packed in with FFXV might grease the wheels a bit for launch.

 

[Mockingbird]

Well, they already did 30,000. So only 9.97 million left.

 

[Error]

FFXIII was highly polarizing and it sold almost 7m

Somehow FFXV doing 10m isn't that hard to achieve. It's getting a PC release, too. So yeah, they'll sell that much. There's a lot of hype for this, much more than with FFXIII.

 

[jj984jj]

I guess they're expecting the west to really like it. It'll be lucky to reach 1.5 million on PS4 when all is said and done in Japan.

 

[Maxim726X]

I see it easily doing 5 million in launch month.
2 million in Japan/Asia
1.5 million in North America
1.5 million in EU/ROTW

Now the March to 10 million depends on wom and PC port-rereleases.

Maybe, but 2 million is going to be hard to hit in Japan... And I think it barely gets a million in the US.

Fun to speculate, but who really knows.

Wonder what Pachter thinks.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Speaking of FF7R - a demo packed in with FFXV might grease the wheels a bit for launch.

I bet they're going to do this. They've done this numerous times. I expect a FFVIIR demo with FFXV to push sales.

I also expect it to come to PC.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

This thread should be interesting after the game's launch on September 30th.