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Final Fantasy XV needs to sell 10 million units to succeed in team's goal

Error

Jealous of the Glory that is Johnny Depp
"At a press conference this morning, director Hajima Tabata answered that question: it needs to sell 10 million copies, worldwide, over entire the life-span of the game. "

Last part puts it in context, it doesn't say 10m in its first month. Says 10m during its entire life-span, yeah, 10m witht that time-frame is definitely doable.
 

XiaNaphryz

LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
Even this is conservative.

- Blackberry OS --- 14 million as people continue the experience on their business phones
- Martian release --- 27 million as Martians rush to experience their first Final Fantasy
- Cats --- 150 million because easily one out of every four cats is gonna need to play this game, right?

Your cats number is inflated. A good portion of them are going to still be playing Final Fantasy All the Bravest.
 
The Final Fantasy XIII saga has moved over 1M copies combined on Steam now, even though everyone has been aware of their quality for years. I think people overestimate the amount of damage that has been done to the brand.
Especially since most people didn't consider XIII to be damaging to the brand at all, since it was a good game that got good reviews and sold high numbers (almost 8 million). It's only really here on GAF where there are a lot of XIII haters, which started before the game even came out.
 

Ray Down

Banned
"At a press conference this morning, director Hajima Tabata answered that question: it needs to sell 10 million copies, worldwide, over entire the life-span of the game. "

Last part puts it in context, it doesn't say 10m in its first month. Says 10m during its entire life-span, yeah, 10m witht that time-frame is definitely doable.

Same, no matter what its gonna be interesting when this game launches and the following months with the eventual PC release.
 

Aters

Member
I expect 7 million for the first three years counting all platforms. No way this game sells worse than FFXIII. Life time? Maybe 10 million. There's always ports and remasters and rereleases.
10 million to succeed so 7 million is roughly good enough for them to break even. The film can break even by itself.
If this bombs. Prepare for FFVI and FFVIII remakes.
Tabata said this game doesn't cost as much as GTAV and Destiny, I believe him.
 

Ravidrath

Member
The fact that they had this figure and prioritized an anime series, CG movie and mobile game over a PC port should tell you everything you need to know about the chances of hitting this number, and Square's competence.
 

TheXbox

Member
And 90% of those sales will be on PS4, which has sold somewhere over 35m since January. They'd need a ridiuclous attach rate to achieve 10m.
 
This is interesting -

LOS ANGELES, March 30, 2016 Oriental Pearl (SSE stock code: 600637), a publicly traded new media firm under Shanghai Media Group (SMG), signed a deal with Square Enix to bring Final Fantasy XV to the Chinese mainland. The deal includes the launch of Final Fantasy XV on PS4 and Xbox One consoles in the mainland market, as well as a cloud game version. The movie Final Fantasy XV is scheduled to premiere at the 2016 Shanghai International Film Festival. In addition, players in the Chinese mainland can enjoy the animation and other products based on Final Fantasy XV with global players at the same time, a synchronized move expected to generate a lot of excitement among fans.

From - http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...sy-xv-chinese-mainland-version-300243870.html

So Square is banking huge on China. And I think we're getting a hint of what that Final Fantasy 15 Lite rumor is - some type of Cloud based version of the game. Hrm.
 

ryseing

Member
Hitting 10 million requires getting some of the Madden/FIFA/CoD/GTA crowd. How do you market a JRPG to them in 2016?
 

Ravidrath

Member
All that helps...You know that right

Sure, but being on the largest platform in the world would help more if they had to sacrifice any one of those things.

The cost of a PC port is tiny compared to the costs of the anime or CG movie, and would greatly expand the game's potential audience. Making the other marketing things much more effective, too.
 
This is interesting -



So Square is banking huge on China. And I think we're getting a hint of what that Final Fantasy 15 Lite rumor is - some type of Cloud based version of the game. Hrm.

Cloud based is, I think, a streaming version. And highly likely from a PC version at that, lol.


Sure, but being on the largest platform in the world would help more if they had to sacrifice any one of those things.

The cost of a PC port is tiny compared to the costs of the anime or CG movie, and would greatly expand the game's potential audience. Making the other marketing things much more effective, too.



Then again, it's their loss. People loves to take GTAV as an exemple, because the game sold really well despite being 2 years late on PC. The thing is, it's the same reasoning as a student getting a B grade without studying. Sure, the student did well, but if he did studied, he would've been more likely to get a A grade.

Plus, Final Fantasy isn't GTA. Basically, releasing after the huge marketing period not only will cost them sale volume on PC, but also in term of revenue because of the game price. In other words, instead of aiming for a 500k to even 1 million target at full price, they'll get twice less than that, at a lower price. That is, if the game doesn't get a bad word of mouth, which is the risk with a later date release.
 
It'll do fine. I'm not pessimistic. It's a blockbuster game set for this year, with a relative lack of software competition and a huge marketing budget. It should hit 10M, barring any quality issues, easily.
 

A-V-B

Member
10 million?

That's insane! FFVII might do that well on a really good year, but this? I mean, it's been in dev hell for so long, why are they even thinking on that level? They'll never recoup their costs. They should just strive to make as much as possible and be happy, y'know?
 
Sure, but being on the largest platform in the world would help more if they had to sacrifice any one of those things.

The cost of a PC port is tiny compared to the costs of the anime or CG movie, and would greatly expand the game's potential audience. Making the other marketing things much more effective, too.
Didn't 13 sell like 500,000? I think i saw that in here nd that came pretty lat And we all know how 13 is looked upon, i think It'll be fine
 

DOWN

Banned
So about 1 in 7 console owners needs to buy it in its first quarter? perhaps 1/10 by the end of the gen?
 
youre_serious_futurama.gif

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Boke1879

Member
The fact that they had this figure and prioritized an anime series, CG movie and mobile game over a PC port should tell you everything you need to know about the chances of hitting this number, and Square's competence.

How? They are going all in and the movie/ cheap 11 minutes long animes serve as a marketing tool. And this is only the beginning. For them to hit 10 million they have to have a large ad/marketing campaign. Right now the core base is most certainly excited for this ancillary media
 

Error

Jealous of the Glory that is Johnny Depp
So about 1 in 7 console owners needs to buy it in its first quarter? That's kind of much but good luck

says during its entire life-span. that could mean 10 years if they re-release it on different platforms in the future, we don't know what time-frame they are using. They are still making money off FFVII almost 20 years later.
 

Celine

Member
For comparison sell-in LTD of previous Final Fantasy games provided by Square Enix to CESA (in million of units):


Figures marked as "updated as 2014" are rounded to nearest 100K, the other ones to 10K.
 
Man, talk about putting all your eggs in one basket. Its really unreasonable to think that FFXV will be the entry to reach this milestone. If anything, FF is in a sales slump as a series thanks to the last few years of direction the series has had. As great as FFXV looks, and it does indeed look like a fantastic return to form for the series, it has a long ways to go to reach the public mindshare it used to enjoy back before FFXIII.

Kingdom Hearts as a series was on track to surpass FF in terms of sales before SE sidelined KH into a mobile franchise. Depending on how they leverage the Disney properties in KH3, I could foresee that game coming close to these numbers. But FFXV? It's gonna have to really deliver to stand a chance.
 
It's going to approach that, much like the rest of the upper echelon of FF sales. People that are saying this will only do 5 million (lifetime btw) are insane.
 

MilkBeard

Member
10 million?

That's insane! FFVII might do that well on a really good year, but this? I mean, it's been in dev hell for so long, why are they even thinking on that level? They'll never recoup their costs. They should just strive to make as much as possible and be happy, y'know?

He said lifetime sales. It's possible, especially incorporating rereleases. They might make a 'game of the year' or some such Director's Cut release down the road after a few years. Maybe a port next get as well, with spiffed up graphics.
 

Dinda

Member
Well, good luck with that. For what it's worth, it is the first Final Fantasy that I'm not interested in. Should be a good sign for a lot of sales.
 

Ravidrath

Member
How? They are going all in and the movie/ cheap 11 minutes long animes serve as a marketing tool. And this is only the beginning. For them to hit 10 million they have to have a large ad/marketing campaign. Right now the core base is most certainly excited for this ancillary media

All of that is far more expensive than a PC port, and does very little to expand the potential audience of the game. Especially the CG movie.

Based on budgeting the anime opening for our new game, I'd estimate that a port would cost about as much as one of those anime shorts.

And these are not mutually exclusive - money is clearly no object, so why not also simultaneously release it on PC? And being on PC would only make that other marketing much more effective.

Instead, we'll get the PC version 6-12 months after the launch. And the marketing hype will have died down. And unless the console release gets stellar reviews and holds up with players, the PC sales will suffer greatly as a result.
 
Very good for an MMORPG. It requires a monthly sub fee and is still doing well, that should give you a good indication.

It had 5 million registered subscribers in August.

Not exactly relevant, since it's an MMO.

But they say "over 5M registered accounts." And you can't subscribe without buying a client.

I see. I was just thinking if that thing did ten, I could see square expecting it to translate. At this point, with this info, I'm confident saying they know its going to bomb.
 

Boke1879

Member
All of that is far more expensive than a PC port, and does very little to expand the potential audience of the game. Especially the CG movie.

Based on budgeting the anime opening for our new game, I'd estimate that a port would cost about as much as one of those anime shorts.

And these are not mutually exclusive - money is clearly no object, so why not also simultaneously release it on PC. And being on PC would only make that other marketing much more effective.

Instead, we'll get the PC version 6-12 months after the launch. And the marketing hype will have died down. And unless the console release gets stellar reviews and holds up with players, the PC sales will suffer greatly as a result.

How can you be so sure. Anime is far reaching and this isn't the only marketing they'll be doing. This is building up the brand. A PC port is coming now matter what. I can't be mad at SE for putting thei muscle behind this.
 
Maybe, but 2 million is going to be hard to hit in Japan... And I think it barely gets a million in the US.

Fun to speculate, but who really knows.

Wonder what Pachter thinks.
2 million with Japan + Asia including China. If it doesn't hit that despite the efforts by SE to localize and market this in China and launch it worldwide, it is already dead.
 
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