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Hurricane Patricia, strongest east pacific hurricane, set to make landfall in Mexico

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M

maquiladora

Member
Couldn't believe my eyes when I saw this. Hope everyone on the Mexican coast where this is headed gets out of it's way by landfall.

12:30 AM CDT Fri Oct 23
Location: 16.5°N 105.3°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 892 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph
Click to expand...

The purpose of this special advisory is to update for a significant
increase in the intensity of the hurricane. Reports from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Patricia has intensified at an
incredible rate since yesterday. The plane measured peak 700-mb
flight level winds of 179 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and this
may be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone. Using the 90
percent adjustment value to convert this to a surface wind speed
yields an intensity estimate of 160 kt, which is tied with eastern
north Pacific Hurricane Linda of 1997 for the strongest on record.
A dropsonde released into the eye measured a sea-level pressure of
894 mb with 25 kt of wind. Adjusting this pressure for the surface
winds (i.e. the drop did not land into the actual center of the eye)
gives an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, which breaks
the record for the lowest pressure of an east Pacific hurricane.
Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today due to eyewall
replacements, but Patricia should maintain category 5 status through
landfall this afternoon or evening.

No changes are made to the track forecast from the previous
advisory.

This special advisory replaces the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory
for Patricia.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane this afternoon or evening. Preparations
to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be
completed as tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect
the area.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0530Z 16.5N 105.3W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 160 KT 185 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 160 KT 185 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Click to expand...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/230531.shtml

EP202015_3W_013_0.GIF
 
T

Thorzilla

Member
That's some really scary shit. Lived Wilma at 15 and it was some frightening stuff. Proteccion Civil probably has this covered but best wishes to all our neighbours in the Pacific.
 
P

Pristine_Condition

Member
This is real, real serious. Way above Cat-5 standards right now with sustained winds at 185MPH and gusts +225MPH.

Best wishes, thoughts and prayers to all my friends in Mexico. MexicoGAF too. Stay safe.
 
C

cirrhosis

Member
holy shit

hope all those at risk in MexicoGAF and your families/friends get through this safely

any footage of this one will be something else
 
Z

Zolf

Member
I had plans to fly into Puerto Vallarta on Saturday for a week long vacation, not sure what's gonna happen now. Hopefully there's no real damage and everyone stays safe.
 
X

xxracerxx

Don't worry, I'll vouch for them.
Oh man, usually the wife and I take a vacation to Puerto Vallarta around this time. Holy shit.

Wish all the best for the people going to be affected.
 
N

NateDrake

Member
maquiladora said:
Stronger than Camille. The last recon pass found estimated surface winds of 182 knots. If correct, that's more intense than in any tropical cyclone ever recorded anywhere on earth.
Click to expand...

That's pretty insane if surface winds are nearing 210 mph. If it makes landfall at that strength....
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
Hah, I was literally seconds from creating a thread but am glad I checked one last time. I'll just copy-paste my OT. The details are far worse than the OP was able to put up, unfortunately.

Edit: Aircraft pass just now found flight-level winds of 221mph, which would translate to ~195 at the surface with the standard formulas.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/22/americas/hurricane-patricia/index.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/PATRICIA.shtml

(CNN)Hurricane Patricia, churning toward southwestern Mexico, is a "potentially catastrophic hurricane," forecasters said after the storm increased in strength to Category 5.

"Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 kph) with higher gusts," the National Hurricane Center said Thursday night.
Click to expand...
A hurricane warning is in effect on Mexico's Pacific Coast from San Blas to Punta San Telmo, an area that includes the resort cities of Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo.
Click to expand...
That story is about 3 hours old as of posting, and the storm is strengthening faster than anyone can keep up with. An update was provided shortly after that article was published to raise the maximum wind speed to 185mph based on measurements by a hurricane hunter aircraft, and lower the official pressure to 892mb (26.34in). The wind ties it with Hurricane Linda of 1997 for most intense and the pressure is a new record low for the entire Eastern Pacific basin.

The hurricane hunter aircraft took another pass through the eye an hour later and found a preliminary automated surface wind speed maximum of 209mph, which if confirmed would be the highest ever measured in any storm. This speed is so exceptional that it will be subject to extra scrutiny before certified. A reading a few minutes later on the opposite side of the eye found 204mph detected by instruments. The latest pressure reading was 890mb (26.28in) with a wind correction of 886.

Patricia was a mere tropical storm until the early hours of Thursday October 22 when an unprecedented explosion of rapid intensification began. Even at the 160mph advisory it was tied for largest ever single day growth with the aforementioned Linda and has since surpassed it.

Patricia's signature feature is the so-called "pinhole eye"-- Extremely rare and pretty much an automatic harbinger of doom. The eye can shrink to smaller than 5 miles across in some storms. The only good news about this (for now) is that the maximum wind radius is small (about 30 miles) and the storm will likely make landfall before having a chance to expand. If Patricia stays over water longer than anticipated. it will greatly amplify the impacts in coastal Mexico. After strings of intensification, hurricanes/typhoons generally level off and expand their wind field, though with landfall in less than a day we're lucking out a little bit.

DISCLAIMER: This image is auto-updating for its satellite and if viewed at a later date show something else.
rbtop0.gif
053225W5_NL_sm.gif
 
H

HalfBakedProphet

Member
This is a once or twice in a century storm. I hope they're doing their best to evacuate

I've spent time in Puerto Vallarta and a small village north of there named Chacala. Both look like they could be in the bullseye. Fucking hell. Please please please get the residence out of there
 
P

perfectchaos007

Member
Good news is once its ashore it will move to the northeast fairly rapidly. Remnants are expected to venture in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and merge with another inland front to bring heavy rainfall this weekend in Texas. Rarely are storms in the pacific strong enough to effect gulf states, (my town is expected to get 12" this weekend) but Patricia will probably do just that. Stay safe Mexico GAF
 
I

_Isaac

Member
What the heck? How have I not heard of this? My home town and a lot of family are right on the coast of that red section, but thankfully just south of the white part.
 
K

kamakazi5

Member
Crazy stuff. My wife is traveling to Cabo tomorrow and I keep fearing it will randomly head north. I don't think that would be possible though.
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
_Isaac said:
What the heck? How have I not heard of this? My home town and a lot of family are right on the coast of that red section, but thankfully just south of the white part.
Click to expand...
It was (relatively) harmless even 24 hours ago. There is no storm on record that's intensified this quickly, ever, anywhere on the planet. Last aircraft pass measured it as the third most intense hurricane in history. It'll likely become a little stronger but the plane is only equipped to run 8-hour missions and is on its way home. Presumably there'll be another later today but rarely do they need to be scheduled on absolutely zero notice. We're extremely lucky to have gotten an aircraft into it when we did, actually. It's an immeasurable amount of invaluable scientific and public safety data.
 
F

Foffy

Banned
This seems like a dangerous thing to happen.

Going to hear stories about the chaos it creates by next week, aren't we? :/
 
M

maquiladora

Member
aspiegamer said:
It was (relatively) harmless even 24 hours ago. There is no storm on record that's intensified this quickly, ever, anywhere on the planet. Last aircraft pass measured it as the third most intense hurricane in history. It'll likely become a little stronger but the plane is only equipped to run 8-hour missions and is on its way home. Presumably there'll be another later today but rarely do they need to be scheduled on absolutely zero notice. We're extremely lucky to have gotten an aircraft into it when we did, actually. It's an immeasurable amount of invaluable scientific and public safety data.
Click to expand...

Yes, that mission is over, plane is on it's way back to base. Pressure was still falling on each pass so it's safe to assume it's somewhere in the 870's now - amazing. We'll never know for sure exactly what it will peak at, no more recon for several hours.
 
Y

Yagharek

Member
aspiegamer said:
It was (relatively) harmless even 24 hours ago. There is no storm on record that's intensified this quickly, ever, anywhere on the planet. Last aircraft pass measured it as the third most intense hurricane in history. It'll likely become a little stronger but the plane is only equipped to run 8-hour missions and is on its way home. Presumably there'll be another later today but rarely do they need to be scheduled on absolutely zero notice. We're extremely lucky to have gotten an aircraft into it when we did, actually. It's an immeasurable amount of invaluable scientific and public safety data.
Click to expand...

Are there any drifting or moored buoys in the area of the forecast track map that might measure SLP?
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
maquiladora said:
Yes, that mission is over, plane is on it's way back to base. Pressure was still falling on each pass so it's safe to assume it's somewhere in the 870's now - amazing. We'll never know for sure exactly what it will peak at, no more recon for several hours.
Click to expand...
Hoping they can rush something else out there, but given this is a military operation with specifically scheduled and highly regimented routines I can appreciate it being a pain in the ass. You can't expect a hurricane hunter wing to be on shooting war levels of instant readiness like some damn fighter jets, especially in the face of new records of intensification levels. I'd agree that 870 is possible since it wasn't at all leveling off as they left and the presentation is still incredibly tight.

If anything it's almost good if it stays this wound up because it won't have time to expand its wind field. The band of most extreme winds could stay at only 5-10 miles wide this way. Storms that do this blow my mind. I simply can't comprehend the amount of angular momentum it takes to spin that quickly around a tiny center and how/why it can be that tight.
Yagharek said:
Are there any drifting or moored buoys in the area of the forecast track map that might measure SLP?
Click to expand...
Clicking "buoys" in the advisory section doesn't turn up any results, but hopefully there's something, somewhere. All I can find is a tsunami sensor west of the storm and its only equipped to measure water height. Our observation abilities are crap in the eastern pacific, and given landfalls and other rain events are frequent it'd be nice to get the Mexican government to play along.
 
H

HalfBakedProphet

Member
Foffy said:
This seems like a dangerous thing to happen.

Going to hear stories about the chaos it creates by next week, aren't we? :/
Click to expand...
depending on where it hits, the surge alone could be catastrophic. That's ignoring the flooding (which is cause of most hurricane deaths) inland from rainfall or that the winds near the eye could level homes just by themselves.

Even if this weakens to a low end CAT 5, this will be fuck
 
Y

Yagharek

Member
aspiegamer said:
Clicking "buoys" in the advisory section doesn't turn up any results, but hopefully there's something, somewhere. All I can find is a tsunami sensor west of the storm and its only equipped to measure water height. Our observation abilities are crap in the eastern pacific, and given landfalls and other rain events are frequent it'd be nice to get the Mexican government to play along.
Click to expand...

maquiladora said:
Nope.
Click to expand...

The obvious conclusion to draw here is that this may be the kind of event that ends up seeing more of them installed along that coast.

The tsunami sensor will hopefully give an indication of potential storm surge magnitude.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 23
Location: 17.0°N 105.5°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 880 mb
Max sustained: 200 mph

Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia
the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the
eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure
estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for
our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could
occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery
shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend
toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the
intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast
shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the
very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after
landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than
predicted by the normal inland decay rate.

Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning
toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The
track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should
continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to
the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is
somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between
the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone
near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted
upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.
However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of
moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally
heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from
local National Weather Service forecast offices for details.

We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking
hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known
just how strong a tropical cyclone it was.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.
Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning
area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.
Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning
area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be
catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN
Click to expand...
 
T

thenight11

Member
on Passantino ‏@passantino 19m19 minutes ago
Breaking: Patricia now with max sustained winds of 200 mph, pressure 880 mb - the strongest hurricane ever recorded http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml …

Jon Passantino ‏@passantino 11m11 minutes ago
NHC in disbelief: “It seems incredible that even more strengthening could occur before landfall” http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/230834.shtml …


When the Nhc is typing stuff like that out...yikes
 
OuterLimits

OuterLimits

Member
Hopefully it goes through an eyewall replacement cycle which could weaken it some. Not that it would make a huge difference.
 
G

Generate

Banned
_Isaac said:
What the heck? How have I not heard of this? My home town and a lot of family are right on the coast of that red section, but thankfully just south of the white part.
Click to expand...

The white part is an estimate. If they are that close, they will be on the bad side of the storm. They need to evacuate immediately.
 
OuterLimits

OuterLimits

Member
Kind of amazing that the storm will be 200mph at landfall and just a tropical storm 24 hours later. The mountains will weaken this quickly it seems.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
OuterLimits said:
Kind of amazing that the storm will be 200mph at landfall and just a tropical storm 24 hours later. The mountains will weaken this quickly it seems.
Click to expand...

Hopefully it will weaken a bit before landfall, though the forecast actually calls for slight strengthening before landfall. Either way the surge is an unstoppable force now.
Really really hoping that everyone near the coast there gets out.
 
G

Generate

Banned
Baskcm said:
for someone who lives in the uk and who doesn't get weather like this is this Katrina sort of bad
Click to expand...

Much worse in windspeed, not as bad in widespread impact. It will locally wipe whatever the eyewall crosses off the map and the rest will get surprisingly minimal damage or flooding.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
Baskcm said:
for someone who lives in the uk and who doesn't get weather like this is this Katrina sort of bad
Click to expand...

It's stronger than Katrina. Strongest sustained winds ever recorded in any tropical cyclone.

The only good news is that the area that will be impacted on the coast doesn't have any large cities or towns, and it will very quickly weaken after it makes landfall.
 
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