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Hurricane Patricia, strongest east pacific hurricane, set to make landfall in Mexico

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Anytime the satellite images of the hurricane have "Off the scale" colors and the hurricane is mostly that color, it's gonna be a disaster.

Stay safe down there.
 

Staab

Member
Jesus, that looks scary.
I hope the civil security forces are properly evacuating the area.
Stay safe folks !

650x366_10222016_hd33.jpg
 
for someone who lives in the uk and who doesn't get weather like this is this Katrina sort of bad
Every hurricane is different and has different types of impacts. Katrina's largest threat ended up being its storm surge, which peaked at over 30ft. There was some wind damage near the core, sure, but that was not the major thing. Plus even at peak it wasn't as intense as this storm.

Katrina's maximum winds peaked something like 36-48 hours before landfall and is had a weakening spurt in the hours leading to landfall, but it had a gigantic wind field that spanned hundreds of miles. All that wind pushes water up and closer to shore. Take that + the "bathtub" nature of the Gulf of Mexico and that water has nowhere to go but onshore to either flood or give a stress test to control systems. And we know how that went for New Orleans.

Patricia is the second-strongest hurricane in recorded history, and the strongest ever for anywhere besides the western pacific. It may well have intensified to the absolute most intense recorded. Wind is an absolutely an issue at category 5+ levels, but these types of storms have very narrow areas of highest speeds and have limited time to create a storm surge. This is a formula for catastrophic damage in a relatively narrow stretch of coast but fewer wide impacts (torrential rain not included). We're also lucky it'll be making landfall soon, however contradictory that sounds.

Here's an example of something sorta like this happening a decade ago in Florida. Small storm, narrow damage area but very extreme in that zone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Charley
 

Baskcm

Member
Every hurricane is different and has different types of impacts. Katrina's largest threat ended up being its storm surge, which peaked at over 30ft. There was some wind damage near the core, sure, but that was not the major thing. Plus even at peak it wasn't as intense as this storm.

Katrina's maximum winds peaked something like 36-48 hours before landfall and is had a weakening spurt in the hours leading to landfall, but it had a gigantic wind field that spanned hundreds of miles. All that wind pushes water up and closer to shore. Take that + the "bathtub" nature of the Gulf of Mexico and that water has nowhere to go but onshore to either flood or give a stress test to control systems. And we know how that went for New Orleans.

Patricia is the second-strongest hurricane in recorded history, and the strongest ever for anywhere besides the western pacific. It may well have intensified to the absolute most intense recorded. Wind is an absolutely an issue at category 5+ levels, but these types of storms have very narrow areas of highest speeds and have limited time to create a storm surge. This is a formula for catastrophic damage in a relatively narrow stretch of coast but fewer wide impacts (torrential rain not included). We're also lucky it'll be making landfall soon, however contradictory that sounds.

Here's an example of something sorta like this happening a decade ago in Florida. Small storm, narrow damage area but very extreme in that zone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Charley

interesting read being here in the uk out climate is pretty moderate especially with our location
 

georly

Member
As someone who grew up in the Caribbean and dealt with hurricanes all his life, hurricanes suck. Any time I hear news of a hurricane I feel for them more than other national disasters. They're super scary and cause serious damage and last for what seems like forever. Unlike an earthquake that is over in a few moments (with potential tsunamis soon after), a hurrican beats you down for hours upon end.

I really hope as many people as possible can evacuate and that those who can't stay safe. It's going to be really rough for a lot of them and it'll be a long while before the areas affected can recover from this. My heart goes out to all of them.
 
When is it scheduled to hit shore ? And are they evacuating ?

7pm-ish Central. The projected landfall zone at the core is mostly small villages, though the ways in and out are basically one 2 lane highway and a couple mountain roads, so evacuation may be difficult, though absolutely necessary.

Other hazards would be flooding in the mountains/hills. I am a bit worried about my wife's family in Guadalajara, which I am sure will get some severe flooding.
 
No change on the latest update. It might be stronger than this but no recon there to confirm so they have kept it the same.

7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 23
Location: 17.3°N 105.6°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 880 mb
Max sustained: 200 mph
 

Mimosa97

Member
7pm-ish Central. The projected landfall zone at the core is mostly small villages, though the ways in and out are basically one 2 lane highway and a couple mountain roads, so evacuation may be difficult, though absolutely necessary.

Other hazards would be flooding in the mountains/hills. I am a bit worried about my wife's family in Guadalajara, which I am sure will get some severe flooding.

Thank you.

I hope your wife's family stays safe.
 

Alebrije

Member
A cat 3 hurricane can blow cars and planes. A cat 5 one will be a nightmare.

There is a big volcano VOLCAN DEL FUEGO, its ashes can create mud rivers once the rain becomes intense.

I have been in Manzanillo during storms and the area is endeble to winds so this hurricane will send all to oblivion , really hope people is taking this seriously , mexicans trend to do not care so much a bout weather risks, specially poor people that we refuses to abandon their house or goods becuese they think some one will steal them.

volcan-de-fuego-colima-indagadores-wp.jpg


ubicacic3b3n-volcan-de-fuego-de-colima-indagadores-wp.jpg
 

pulsemyne

Member
Think of it like this it's roughly the same strength as an F4/5 tornado except it's much, much bigger.
She may even give typhoon tip a run for it's pressure record although thankfully she's nowhere near as big.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Climate change is going to have us create a Hurricane Category 6 isn't it?

Living through the heart of Charley which was on the line of 4 and 5, I can't imagine this monster... :(
 

Africanus

Member
I did a double take when I got an update from Univision on my IPad.
The strongest storm ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere. How quickly it increased!

Only a day ago it was in the sideline of my thoughts as the next hurricane.
 

Staab

Member
No recon flight out there but intensity just based on satellite presentation has broken the Dvorak scale.

UiJoeeJ.gif

Let's hope that staggering climb doesn't continue till it hits the coast, could get winds up to 200 knots by then, that would be insane.
 

Velcro Fly

Member
Just incredible.

I've been following hurricanes/typhoons since I was a kid and have always had an interest in how strong they could get. They always seem to top out at about 175-180 mph. I just never thought anything more could happen. Waking up and checking the weather before I got work and seeing that it's the strongest storm on record got my attention really fast.

This is going to be such a disaster. Most of the time these things hit peak intensity they are out to sea, not bearing down on land. Even Katrina at peak intensity it was still in the gulf like a day away from land.
 
Holy shit it broke Dvorak, its over 200mph and...

Holy fuck what a beast

When recon was there it was below 8.0 and recon found 192 knot flight level winds on their last pass of the mission. It was getting stronger on every pass until they had to leave.
 
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