Gonna copy paste some thing I said a few years back about the 360s success being a fluke and why it probably won’t ever happen again:
The 360, more than anything was lightening in a bottle that could probably never be replicated again, with good management that is no longer there. Consider the 360 had:
-Year Head Start, 2 years in some regions
-100-200 Dollar price advantage
-Sony seemingly lost in the woods for the first 3 years of the generation
-Significantly easier to program for than ps3
-Perceived as leading the charge for online multiplayer for console depite ps3 also having this, for free i might add
-Halo 2's cliff hanger story and halo being the phenomenon that it was at the time
-Gears of war LOOKING as good as it did on top of being a good game
-Close relationship with Epic made 360 the lead platform for unreal engine 3, which was the main engine at the time
-Solid First party games Like Fable, Banjo Kazoie, Kameo, and a few others
-Recruiting Big name Japanese Developers like Sakaguchi
-Square enix president at the time was very pro xbox and seemingly had it out for playstation at the time
-Marketing Rights to Call of Duty when it was at its peak popularity
-Former PS2 Exclusives started becoming Multi platform giving the impression that the 360 was the place to be
-Kinect, Impressive technology although not very functional for gaming gave the 360 a second wind
-Lots of timed 3rd party exclusives like Mass Effect and Bioshock. Either from aggressive deal making, hard to program for ps3, or sony incompetence
All of this confluence into a perfect storm that also had the planets align. It would be difficult. if not near impossible to replicate even half of these.
Going into 2020 and comparing to the 360s advantages, the scarletts uphill climb looks like:
-There will not be a year head start, in fact it seems like sony is further along than xbox with what little we know.
-Price yet remains to be seen for both but sony has indicted numerous times that the ps3s price was problematic.
-Both Scarlett and PS5 will have very similar architecture
-Service wise Xbox is ahead but Gamepass isnt helping with Hardware sales currently
-Both Halo and gears of war are shadows of their former selves
-Sony has dramatically increased first party focus, so much so that its one of their main selling points
-Japanese support has all but collapsed. Very little incentive to make xbox ports, even less so for exclusives
-Most Japanese devs saw the negative impact of betting on xbox and have adjusted priorities
-Sony, not Microsoft are now the ones seeking out 3rd party deals
-Kinect is dead in the water, sony is dabbling with VR, which perhaps at some point could become a hit.