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[RexNovis]

It is flawed, no question. Here's the thing... with digital, particularly digital sales, units can shift dramatically based on discounting. A STEAM or PSN/XBX sale of a game at 90% off can shift tens or even hundreds of thousands of units. A game may sell more units in one day at a significant sale price than it did life to date up to that sale.

So, had we kept the ranking at units, it would be incredibly easy for someone to manipulate those rankings.

By using revenues, we are able to normalize the units with pricing. Again, not perfect, but better than units alone.

We have most of the major publishers participating, but not having Bethesda or Battle.net sales hurts, sure.

The truth of it is that without all publishers participating by contributing digital data the way in which it's being presented is inherently misleading and not actually informative as to the health of the industry as a whole. What it really comes down to is that despite NPD receiving more information than ever from participating parties the way in which said information is presented to the public (digital revenue charts w/o any platform ranking info on a per title basis) comes across as obfuscation. The public simply isn't getting nearly as much reliable information for analysis.

This could be solved so easily by providing additional rankings based on unit sales at retail only with platform ranking in addition to the current digital revenue information. Doing so would be giving us additional information to discuss on top of what we already had for so many years. But instead NPD has opted to provide us with less instead of more despite reveibvibg that additional information.

At the end of the day no matter how you look at it the information we are currently given is not only not painting an accurate picture of things due to lack of important data but also provides us with less data for analysis than ever before and it's incredibly frustrating for those of us interested in discussing and analyzing the health of the industry as a whole.

All the digital rankings are for full game spending only. DLC/MTX is not included. Hopefully we get there someday soon.

Personally I would be far more interested in a retail unit sales chart with an accompanying total digital revenue chart that includes all digital revenue and not just full game purchases as I feel that would provide a more comprehensive look at the industry and where it's heading. This is an especially interesting topic due to the prevalence of in game transactions and post release content in today's software landscape. It would be incredibly interesting to see how such monetization efforts are paying off for publishers on a per title basis and would help us track and analyze the industry form a completely new angle. It would simply give us a lot more to consider and discuss.

 

[onemanasylum]

Early Prediction: Horizon will surpass 700K in it's first NPD.

 

[hanspampel]

Early Prediction: Horizon will surpass 700K in it's first NPD.

Horizon Zero Dawn will release on 28th February and has the full 5 weeks of March NPD tracking period to sell.
Uncharted 4 had 3 weeks of tracking in May 2016 and sold 828k units standalone and 879k including bundle copies.


700k looks like a reasonable estimate and should be possible even with the increased digital attachrate increase over last year.
Reviews are also good and Playstation 4 has a healthy hardcore userbase who showed they are willing to buy and support Sony's first party / exclusive games. At least when it comes to the high profile / big budget ones.

So yeah, i also don't see the game doing much less than UC4, even being a new not established IP. Seems to be a games, that attracts a similar audience
Between 600 and 800k is my assumption

 

[donny2112]

well the publisher already have your back
they gladly report total user and monthly or daily active user numbers as one of, or even the, most important metric

It's important to the publisher as that leads to revenue. It's not important to me, when I want to see how the latest Metroid (

Spoiler

ha!

) or Dragon Quest game is doing. DAU on a one-and-done game is a bad correlation. If I wanted to see how the latest MMPOFPS was doing, yeah. Just not the game I care about, at this point.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I'll say ~700K for HZD.

 

[onemanasylum]

Horizon Zero Dawn will release on 28th February and has the full 5 weeks of March NPD tracking period to sell.
Uncharted 4 had 3 weeks of tracking in May 2016 and sold 828k units standalone and 879k including bundle copies.


700k looks like a reasonable estimate and should be possible even with the increased digital attachrate increase over last year.
Reviews are also good and Playstation 4 has a healthy hardcore userbase who showed they are willing to buy and support Sony's first party / exclusive games. At least when it comes to the high profile / big budget ones.

So yeah, i also don't see the game doing much less than UC4, even being a new not established IP. Seems to be a games, that attracts a similar audience
Between 600 and 800k is my assumption

First time we ever agree on something lol.

 

[jryi]

Revenue shows a wrong ideia of the game success for gamers in my opinion...

To put it bluntly, that is not really NPD's problem: they are a service for the business, not for gamers.

Sure, I would much rather hear unit sales, because that is a far better proxy for the gamer enthusiasm (can be slightly manipulated with price adjustments), but if you want to gauge the business success, revenue is pretty much the best metric there is. (Profit would be even better, but with cost of sales being a negilible part of the cost structure of a game, it's much more complicated to calculate than just your straight revenue.)

 

[Hawkens]

Early Prediction: Horizon will surpass 700K in it's first NPD.

Other recent Sony Published games in March

2010 God of War III - 1100k - 3 weeks
2013 God of War Ascension - 633k with bundle - 4 weeks
2014 Infamous Second Son - 461k - 2 weeks
2015 Bloodborne - 389k - 2 weeks


Also It should be noted that MLB the Show generally does 200-300k in one week every year it is releases.


700k seems like a good guess. If this goes over 500k, Guerrilla Games will join Naughty Dog, Santa Monica, and Polyphony Digital as the only studios to have a Sony first party game open above 500k as far a I can tell.

 

[donny2112]

Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, rankings are just a counter, so if two people are tied, it isn't shown here.

NeoGAF Prediction Results - January 2017

Units

1. BlackBuzzard
2. onemanasylum
3. Sterok
4. noobie
5. Kayant
6. ethomaz
7. theprodigy
8. RexNovis
9. harrisk954
10. robo
11. GAF_Agg
12. CorporateClown
13. allan-bh
14. blakep267
15. jjonez18
16. Hydrargyrus
17. Shock32
18. Sangetsu-II
19. jroc74
20. vivekTO
21. Rymuth
22. Cow Goes Moo
23. Elandyll
24. Trust me, I'm a PhD
25. mejin
26. slavesnyder
27. Tratorn
28. HalfBaked
29. Primethius
30. Raylan
31. astrogamer
32. Bruno MB
33. Ol┐nner
34. noshten
35. Bitch Pudding
36. N.Domixis
37. archnemesis
38. jayu26
39. freefornow
40. Fdkn
41. hanspampel
42. kyser73
43. pitseleh
44. Chobel
45. Ombala
46. Shizza
47. Welfare
48. viHuGi
49. fbutron
50. skedar897
51. Kill3r7
52. donny2112
53. Javin98
54. michaelius
55. Thorrgal
56. Darth Smurf X
57. Hammer24
58. 1993dan1
59. JlNX
60. Ravage_Hydra
61. mikey1123
62. Pachter
63. Stanng243
64. Duxxy3
65. GifGafIsTheBestGaf


Points

     January 2017                    Overall 2017 Top (1/1)
01.  BlackBuzzard           ---.--   BlackBuzzard           ---.--
02.  onemanasylum           ---.--   onemanasylum           ---.--
03.  Sterok                 ---.--   Sterok                 ---.--
04.  noobie                 ---.--   noobie                 ---.--
05.  theprodigy             ---.--   ethomaz                ---.--
06.  ethomaz                ---.--   theprodigy             ---.--
07.  Kayant                 ---.--   Kayant                 ---.--
08.  RexNovis               ---.--   RexNovis               ---.--
09.  harrisk954             ---.--   harrisk954             ---.--
10.  robo                   ---.--   robo                   ---.--
11.  blakep267              ---.--   blakep267              ---.--
12.  allan-bh               ---.--   allan-bh               ---.--
13.  Hydrargyrus            ---.--   Hydrargyrus            ---.--
14.  jjonez18               ---.--   jjonez18               ---.--
15.  CorporateClown         ---.--   CorporateClown         ---.--
16.  Shock32                ---.--   Shock32                ---.--
17.  Cow Goes Moo           ---.--   Cow Goes Moo           ---.--
18.  vivekTO                ---.--   vivekTO                ---.--
19.  Sangetsu-II            ---.--   jroc74                 ---.--
20.  jroc74                 ---.--   Sangetsu-II            ---.--
21.  Elandyll               ---.--   Elandyll               ---.--
22.  Raylan                 ---.--   Raylan                 ---.--
23.  HalfBaked              ---.--   HalfBaked              ---.--
24.  Rymuth                 ---.--   Rymuth                 ---.--
25.  Trust me, I'm a PhD    ---.--   Trust me, I'm a PhD    ---.--
26.  Tratorn                ---.--   Tratorn                ---.--
27.  mejin                  ---.--   mejin                  ---.--
28.  slavesnyder            ---.--   slavesnyder            ---.--
29.  Bruno MB               ---.--   Bruno MB               ---.--
30.  Primethius             ---.--   Primethius             ---.--
31.  astrogamer             ---.--   astrogamer             ---.--
32.  freefornow             ---.--   freefornow             ---.--
33.  noshten                ---.--   noshten                ---.--
34.  Ol┐nner               ---.--   Ol┐nner               ---.--
35.  Fdkn                   ---.--   Fdkn                   ---.--
36.  jayu26                 ---.--   jayu26                 ---.--
37.  pitseleh               ---.--   pitseleh               ---.--
38.  Bitch Pudding          ---.--   archnemesis            ---.--
39.  archnemesis            ---.--   Bitch Pudding          ---.--
40.  N.Domixis              ---.--   N.Domixis              ---.--
41.  kyser73                ---.--   hanspampel             ---.--
42.  hanspampel             ---.--   kyser73                ---.--
43.  Chobel                 ---.--   Chobel                 ---.--
44.  Shizza                 ---.--   Shizza                 ---.--
45.  Welfare                ---.--   Welfare                ---.--
46.  fbutron                ---.--   fbutron                ---.--
47.  Ombala                 ---.--   Ombala                 ---.--
48.  skedar897              ---.--   skedar897              ---.--
49.  donny2112              ---.--   donny2112              ---.--
50.  Hammer24               ---.--   Hammer24               ---.--

Congratulations, BlackBuzzard!

 

[MatPiscatella]

The truth of it is that without all publishers participating by contributing digital data the way in which it's being presented is inherently misleading and not actually informative as to the health of the industry as a whole.

Well, it's certainly better than when things were only physical units. The only way to assume that the packaged unit rankings were a better gauge would be to assume that all titles sell digitally at a similar rate to physical, and this just isn't the case. But sure, would love total participation. Hopefully we get there sooner rather than later.

What it really comes down to is that despite NPD receiving more information than ever from participating parties the way in which said information is presented to the public (digital revenue charts w/o any platform ranking info on a per title basis) comes across as obfuscation. The public simply isn't getting nearly as much reliable information for analysis.

What benefit did the platform ranking actually provide outside of fueling console wars? Now that there are individual platform rankings, relative title strength can be looked at within a platform ecosystem. The by platform charts are the opposite of obfuscation in this sense, no?

This could be solved so easily by providing additional rankings based on unit sales at retail only with platform ranking in addition to the current digital revenue information. Doing so would be giving us additional information to discuss on top of what we already had for so many years. But instead NPD has opted to provide us with less instead of more despite reveibvibg that additional information.

The media deliverable is the result of long discussions and achieved consensus across publishers, retailers and the 1st parties.

Personally I would be far more interested in a retail unit sales chart with an accompanying total digital revenue chart that includes all digital revenue and not just full game purchases as I feel that would provide a more comprehensive look at the industry and where it's heading. This is an especially interesting topic due to the prevalence of in game transactions and post release content in today's software landscape. It would be incredibly interesting to see how such monetization efforts are paying off for publishers on a per title basis and would help us track and analyze the industry form a completely new angle. It would simply give us a lot more to consider and discuss.

Point taken, I'll bring the idea up at the next opportunity. Thanks for the recommendation.

 

[hanspampel]

[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 130K

[PS4] 218K
[XB1] 163K

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Jan-2017

1. PS4 - 208K
2. XB1 - 176K

Units

1. BlackBuzzard
2. onemanasylum
3. Sterok
4. noobie
5. Kayant
6. ethomaz
7. theprodigy
8. RexNovis
9. harrisk954
10. robo
11. GAF_Agg
12. CorporateClown
13. allan-bh
14. blakep267
15. jjonez18
16. Hydrargyrus
17. Shock32
18. Sangetsu-II
19. jroc74
20. vivekTO
21. Rymuth
22. Cow Goes Moo
23. Elandyll
24. Trust me, I'm a PhD
25. mejin
26. slavesnyder
27. Tratorn
28. HalfBaked
29. Primethius
30. Raylan
31. astrogamer
32. Bruno MB
33. Ol┐nner
34. noshten
35. Bitch Pudding
36. N.Domixis
37. archnemesis
38. jayu26
39. freefornow
40. Fdkn
41. hanspampel
42. kyser73
43. pitseleh
44. Chobel
45. Ombala
46. Shizza
47. Welfare
48. viHuGi
49. fbutron
50. skedar897
51. Kill3r7
52. donny2112
53. Javin98
54. michaelius
55. Thorrgal
56. Darth Smurf X
57. Hammer24
58. 1993dan1
59. JlNX
60. Ravage_Hydra
61. mikey1123
62. Pachter
63. Stanng243
64. Duxxy3
65. GifGafIsTheBestGaf

taking a look at the rankings list it appears the Ps4 / Xb1 gap was more in the ~30k(+) range and not just 10K, or really close
also seems to be Ps4 did 200k+ none with Ps4 below 200k did chart high

 

[KawabataSan]

Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, rankings are just a counter, so if two people are tied, it isn't shown here.

How do you know these results?

 

[onemanasylum]

So the gap was still fairly sizeable?

 

[jayu26]

Damn, not a good start for me.

Congratulations BlackBuzzard.

How do you know these results?

You can trust the results (rankings), but it's best to leave it at that.

 

[Primethius]

A new age of sales interpretation has begun.

 

[ethomaz]

Congrats BlackBuzzard.

I did pretty well I guess... 6th.

[PS4] 200k
[XB1] 150k

Dammit why I put PS4 low.

 

[Primethius]

This is the unit prediction that won for anyone that's curious:


[PS4] 222k
[XB1] 157k

 

[onemanasylum]

So despite MS being up YOY and PS4 down, looks like still a big gap, it's why you don't jump t conclusions with PR.

 

[onemanasylum]

I was Second for my first prediction PARTAY!! WOOT!!

 

[ethomaz]

So despite MS being up YOY and PS4 down, looks like still a big gap, it's why you don't jump t conclusions with PR.

Yeap... the gap is close to 50k.

 

[KawabataSan]

You can trust the results (rankings), but it's best to leave it at that.

How so?

There were no leaks this month? I read the threads.

 

[ethomaz]

How so?

There were no leaks this month? I read the threads.

Because he never got the actual numbers from public leakers lol

We always get the prediction thread right without any leaker post numbers... understood

 

[jayu26]

How so?

There were no leaks this month? I read the threads.

He got made connect yo. He ain't about to tell you about that. Nor should you be aksing.

 

[KawabataSan]

He got made connect yo. He ain't about to tell you about that. Nor should you be aksing.

So does everyone know the numbers or just donny2112?

Maybe someone can send me a pm.

 

[ethomaz]

So does everyone know the numbers or just donny2112?

Maybe someone can send me a pm.

Just him... you won't receive pm and it is better like that

Spoiler

But to be fair it is pretty easy to get the numbers with the ranking.

 

[onemanasylum]

Donny is not the hero we need, but the hero we deserve.

IS there any retail insiders that can speak to how Horizon is looking pre-orders/buzz wise? Amazon it looks like it's going to be big...but it's amazon.

Yeap... the gap is close to 50k.

Looks like to could be anywhere from 50--70 k?

 

[ethomaz]

Looks like to could be anywhere from 50--70 k?

Well... it can be 55k but not 60k... it is lower... ~50k is the best fit we have for now

 

[Welfare]

How so?

There were no leaks this month? I read the threads.

Donny has recieved NPD numbers in previous months from people when not all numbers have leaked.

Based on the top predictor's results, the gap looks to be in the 50K to 60K range.

[PS4] 222k
[XB1] 157k

[PS4] 218K
[XB1] 163K

[PS4] 200K
[XB1] 160K

[PS4] 225K
[XB1] 154K

[PS4] 219K
[XB1] 169K

[PS4] 200k
[XB1] 150k

The average for the top 5 predictors on units (plus theprodigy as they were #5 in points) is

PS4: 214K or ~215K
XB1: 159K or ~160K

ethomaz was also above Kayant in points so with his prediction the average is

[PS4] 200k
[XB1] 150k

PS4: 212K or ~210K
XB1: 158K or ~160K

This is probably the best results we got for this month, which fit with what we know so far. This would be the best January for the Xbox One and PS4 is down YoY but not massively.

 

[onemanasylum]

Well... it can be 55k but not 60k... it is lower... ~50k is the best fit we have for now

Ok, i'm so proud to be second, gonna brag all month guys. So Windows Central only release numbers when it's close or something? Weird.

 

[ethomaz]

Ok, i'm so proud to be second, gonna brag all month guys. So Windows Central only release numbers when it's close or something? Weird.

Zhuge posted that on banned site... I don't know if true.

Windows Central is used as an outlet for Microsoft PR at times. Therefore they'll only post numbers if it makes Microsoft looks good, which they can't really do this month.

 

[Bruno MB]

Since no hardware numbers were leaked to the public this month I have no means to know if these results are correct.

As much as I love to participate in these prediction games in my opinion they should be cancelled those months we don't have any public data. I don't like these mysterious rankings.

Edit: I realized my post might have sound a bit harsh, my apologies, donny. I really appreciate your effort and dedication to these prediction games. Just that it is a bit frustrating not having any figures.

 

[Welfare]

Since no hardware numbers were leaked to the public this month I have no means to know if these results are correct.

As much as I love to participate in these prediction games in my opinion they should be cancelled those months we don't have any public data. I don't like these mysterious rankings.

We could always use chartz lol

But really, what made me even sign up to GAF in the first place was SalesAge (and that ntkrnl leak helped speed up me wanting to get in) so seeing what looks to be yet another data set for the video game industry going into complete secrecy is saddening.

If the charts are revenue based, I feel ASP should be a major aspect to focus on during the reports.

 

[onemanasylum]

Since no hardware numbers were leaked to the public this month I have no means to know if these results are correct.

As much as I love to participate in these prediction games in my opinion they should be cancelled those months we don't have any public data. I don't like these mysterious rankings.

Meh, we have a very good idea what the numbers are now, at least close to it, just not exact, frustrating yes, but not that big a deal.

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, rankings are just a counter, so if two people are tied, it isn't shown here.

NeoGAF Prediction Results - January 2017

Units

1. BlackBuzzard
2. onemanasylum
3. Sterok
4. noobie
5. Kayant
6. ethomaz
7. theprodigy
8. RexNovis
9. harrisk954
10. robo
11. GAF_Agg
12. CorporateClown
13. allan-bh
14. blakep267
15. jjonez18
16. Hydrargyrus
17. Shock32
18. Sangetsu-II
19. jroc74

Fuck yeah!

Zhuge posted that on banned site... I don't know if true.

Makes Sense, first thing that popped into my mind when PS4 won was that Windows Central wouldn't leak numbers this month.

 

[Shizza]

PS4: 212K or ~210K
XB1: 158K or ~160K

This is probably the best results we got for this month, which fit with what we know so far. This would be the best January for the Xbox One and PS4 is down YoY but not massively.

Actually, we should be able to figure out the number fairly exactly since there are only 2 variables (PS4 and XB1).

Using the order of guessers for the month (and their associated guesses), you can create a matrix of possible values (I rounded to the nearest 1k - so 99k, 100k, 111k, etc) for XB1 and PS4 for the month, and then calculate the sum of the deviations for the 2 console guesses for each person. As long as the sums for each subsequent person are greater than or equal to the previous person, than it is a valid outcome (ie: 1st-10, 2nd-12, 3rd-12, 4th-15, 5th-29, etc); if they are out of order than it is not a valid outcome (ie: 1st-10, 2nd-8, 3rd-15, 4th-16, 5th-21, etc).

I only used the top five people since I don't have a ton of time, but that already narrows it down to:
XB1 ~156k-158k
PS4: ~211k-213k

or a gap of ~55k.

I'm sure you could nail down the exact numbers if you used a large enough pool of guesses, but I don't have time for that right now.

 

[Primethius]

Actually, we should be able to figure out the number fairly exactly since there are only 2 variables (PS4 and XB1).

Using the order of guessers for the month (and their associated guesses), you can create a matrix of possible values (I rounded to the nearest 1k - so 99k, 100k, 111k, etc) for XB1 and PS4 for the month, and then calculate the sum of the deviations for the 2 console guesses for each person. As long as the sums for each subsequent person are greater than or equal to the previous person, than it is a valid outcome (ie: 1st-10, 2nd-12, 3rd-12, 4th-15, 5th-29, etc); if they are out of order than it is not a valid outcome (ie: 1st-10, 2nd-8, 3rd-15, 4th-16, 5th-21, etc).

I only used the top five people since I don't have a ton of time, but that already narrows it down to:
XB1 ~156k-158k
PS4: ~211k-213k

or a gap of ~55k.

I'm sure you could nail down the exact numbers if you used a large enough pool of guesses, but I don't have time for that right now.

This post went completely over my head. But it sounds smart so thanks for doing the work and providing us with good numbers for the month.

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Actually, we should be able to figure out the number fairly exactly since there are only 2 variables (PS4 and XB1).

Using the order of guessers for the month (and their associated guesses), you can create a matrix of possible values (I rounded to the nearest 1k - so 99k, 100k, 111k, etc) for XB1 and PS4 for the month, and then calculate the sum of the deviations for the 2 console guesses for each person. As long as the sums for each subsequent person are greater than or equal to the previous person, than it is a valid outcome (ie: 1st-10, 2nd-12, 3rd-12, 4th-15, 5th-29, etc); if they are out of order than it is not a valid outcome (ie: 1st-10, 2nd-8, 3rd-15, 4th-16, 5th-21, etc).

I only used the top five people since I don't have a ton of time, but that already narrows it down to:
XB1 ~156k-158k
PS4: ~211k-213k

or a gap of ~55k.

I'm sure you could nail down the exact numbers if you used a large enough pool of guesses, but I don't have time for that right now.

Very smart, thank you. So if we do this every month we will have NPD numbers!

We finally found a loophole SalesGaf!!!

Take that Mat!!! lol

 

[Sterok]

Third place. My highest position yet. Good to see I can guess right sometimes. Less good is not having numbers, but we'll figure something out hopefully.

 

[hanspampel]

Makes Sense, first thing that popped into my mind when PS4 won was that Windows Central wouldn't leak numbers this month.

Windows Central did not get numbers for this month and the source is not from Microsoft. That is at least what the autor himself said. It's feasible to question that, of couse

Actually, we should be able to figure out the number fairly exactly since there are only 2 variables (PS4 and XB1).

Using the order of guessers for the month (and their associated guesses), you can create a matrix of possible values (I rounded to the nearest 1k - so 99k, 100k, 111k, etc) for XB1 and PS4 for the month, and then calculate the sum of the deviations for the 2 console guesses for each person. As long as the sums for each subsequent person are greater than or equal to the previous person, than it is a valid outcome (ie: 1st-10, 2nd-12, 3rd-12, 4th-15, 5th-29, etc); if they are out of order than it is not a valid outcome (ie: 1st-10, 2nd-8, 3rd-15, 4th-16, 5th-21, etc).

I only used the top five people since I don't have a ton of time, but that already narrows it down to:
XB1 ~156k-158k
PS4: ~211k-213k

or a gap of ~55k.

I'm sure you could nail down the exact numbers if you used a large enough pool of guesses, but I don't have time for that right now.

gimme the excel sheet and i'll put in the numbers for all predictions made

 

[Welfare]

Actually, we should be able to figure out the number fairly exactly since there are only 2 variables (PS4 and XB1).

Using the order of guessers for the month (and their associated guesses), you can create a matrix of possible values (I rounded to the nearest 1k - so 99k, 100k, 111k, etc) for XB1 and PS4 for the month, and then calculate the sum of the deviations for the 2 console guesses for each person. As long as the sums for each subsequent person are greater than or equal to the previous person, than it is a valid outcome (ie: 1st-10, 2nd-12, 3rd-12, 4th-15, 5th-29, etc); if they are out of order than it is not a valid outcome (ie: 1st-10, 2nd-8, 3rd-15, 4th-16, 5th-21, etc).

I only used the top five people since I don't have a ton of time, but that already narrows it down to:
XB1 ~156k-158k
PS4: ~211k-213k

or a gap of ~55k.

I'm sure you could nail down the exact numbers if you used a large enough pool of guesses, but I don't have time for that right now.

Ah yes, this would work as well.

While I also don't have the time to do this, we basically have a very small range of what the results are, so we don't need to waste time for the exact numbers. That's why I rounded to the closest 5K as the results don't change much.

 

[Elios83]

Actually, we should be able to figure out the number fairly exactly since there are only 2 variables (PS4 and XB1).

Using the order of guessers for the month (and their associated guesses), you can create a matrix of possible values (I rounded to the nearest 1k - so 99k, 100k, 111k, etc) for XB1 and PS4 for the month, and then calculate the sum of the deviations for the 2 console guesses for each person. As long as the sums for each subsequent person are greater than or equal to the previous person, than it is a valid outcome (ie: 1st-10, 2nd-12, 3rd-12, 4th-15, 5th-29, etc); if they are out of order than it is not a valid outcome (ie: 1st-10, 2nd-8, 3rd-15, 4th-16, 5th-21, etc).

I only used the top five people since I don't have a ton of time, but that already narrows it down to:
XB1 ~156k-158k
PS4: ~211k-213k

or a gap of ~55k.

I'm sure you could nail down the exact numbers if you used a large enough pool of guesses, but I don't have time for that right now.

Nice!

Zhuge posted that on banned site... I don't know if true.

Windows Central is used as an outlet for Microsoft PR at times. Therefore they'll only post numbers if it makes Microsoft looks good, which they can't really do this month.

That was obvious, their source is within Microsoft and numbers were purposely leaked in November to damage control the holiday season defeat since the gap was small.
55k gap for January is pretty sizeable and given total PS4 sales it suggests that Slim alone has possibly outpaced Xbox One S in January sales.
I doubt we'll get numbers from them in February either

 

[CosmicQueso]

Windows Central did not get numbers for this month and the source is not from Microsoft. That is at least what the autor himself said.

Lol.

 

[Welfare]

Lol.

RIP Astronaut.

 

[RexNovis]

RIP Astronaut.

Does this mean we can call him PadreQueso now?

Well, it's certainly better than when things were only physical units. The only way to assume that the packaged unit rankings were a better gauge would be to assume that all titles sell digitally at a similar rate to physical, and this just isn't the case. But sure, would love total participation. Hopefully we get there sooner rather than later.

While true it also had equal sales representation for all publishing parties so while you're right it didn't provide as much information what info it did provide was much more reliable as a general benchmark for overall market performance than what is currently presented. We can't very well discuss the health of different genres and it publishers in comparison with others when not all publishers are represented in a very large and growing revenue sector.

What benefit did the platform ranking actually provide outside of fueling console wars? Now that there are individual platform rankings, relative title strength can be looked at within a platform ecosystem. The by platform charts are the opposite of obfuscation in this sense, no?

It allowed us to see which platforms were the primary drivers in sales for different brands and genres which helps to define the demographics purchasing games on said platforms. You're right that the individual platform rankings provide similar data points though. I guess I just don't understand why NOD would opt to stop reporting such a simple data set on a monthly basis.

The media deliverable is the result of long discussions and achieved consensus across publishers, retailers and the 1st parties.

So basically in exchange for additional digital revenue info from certain parties the terms of what can and cannot be publicly reported were altered. Well no offense but if that is what happened then that is a rotten deal. Basically in exchange for incomplete data NPD would've therefore agreed to report less information than it already does to the public at large. I don't see how anyone wins in that exchange except for publishers looking to obfuscate their performance metrics as much as possible. NPD gets an incomplete data set and the public gets even less useful data than they already did. That's sounds like an awful deal to me.

Point taken, I'll bring the idea up at the next opportunity. Thanks for the recommendation.

Thank you. I sincerely hope something changes in regards to the publicly reported info because as it stands there's just not a lot for any meaningful analysis or discussion past the most basic statements or observations and as someone who really enjoys analyzing and dissecting market trends it has been a huge let down the past few months. To be clear I know this isn't your doing I know it's a company thing and I appreciate that you are passing along our statements and concerns but you can't really blame us for being a bit non pluses with the way NPD has changed their public reporting. its a massive shift.

 

[MatPiscatella]

While true it also had equal sales representation for all publishing parties so while you're right it didn't provide as much information what info it did provide was much more reliable as a general benchmark for overall market performance than what is currently presented. We can't very well discuss the health of different genres and it publishers in comparison with others when not all publishers are represented in a very large and growing revenue sector.

True, but the data suggests that the new methodology is, at worst, no more misleading than the old format. I get what you want to do, I want that too. But until we get full digital participation, there are always going to be limitations. Given the % of share digital is taking, however, leaving that out isn't a good solution, even if it does leave an apples:apples comparison. I understand your point, I just don't think, after having looked at all this stuff, that a packaged only chart would get you to where you want to be.

I guess I just don't understand why NOD would opt to stop reporting such a simple data set on a monthly basis.

The deliverable is the result of publishers and 1st parties finding consensus on what is to be presented. You are referring to NPD as though it has unilateral control over the media deliverable, and it doesn't.

Well no offense but if that is what happened then that is a rotten deal.

From the fan viewpoint, I understand your perspective here.

I sincerely hope something changes in regards to the publicly reported info because as it stands there's just not a lot for any meaningful analysis or discussion past the most basic statements or observations and as someone who really enjoys analyzing and dissecting market trends it has been a huge let down the past few months.

It's an evolving process. It's just a question of balancing the wants/needs of retailers, publishers, 1st parties, financial analysts, media and, finally, fans. I hear what you're saying, and I get it, it's just a long process with lots of gives and takes.

 

[RexNovis]

It's an evolving process. It's just a question of balancing the wants/needs of retailers, publishers, 1st parties, financial analysts, media and, finally, fans. I hear what you're saying, and I get it, it's just a long process with lots of gives and takes.

I realize we aren't all professionals in the field like yourself but I don't think we are necessarily just fans either. You yourself have attested to the fact that our discussion and analysis has been both incredibly insightful and useful in the past. In fact there are members of SalesAge that are employed in various other analytical fields and some have even gone on to acquire employment in your field due to the excellent work they've done here and elsewhere.

So having said the above let me ask you this: what do you think about the level of discourse and discussion in SalesAge threads since these changes were made? Because, to me, it feels like the days of meaningful discussion and analysis are over and the community is in shambles without anything meaningful to discuss.

If this community means as much to you and the industry as you previously proclaimed surely you can see the toll these changes have taken. What was once a place for analysis and discourse is rapidly devolving into a mess of uninformed proclamations and vapid surface level discourse. Why do you think that is? Is it because those of us who enjoy discussing and analyzing the market have suddenly lost interest? Not bloody likely. The only explanation then is that the drastoc decrease in information readily available to us to discuss or dissect has stifled the community's ability to do what it has in the past.

SalesAge is my primary reason for joining and returning to GAF and it is rapidly turning into a shadow of its former self. While the decline has been going on for a while the recent lack of information and discussion points available is killing this community. As someone who values the analysis and discussion that happened here I can't begin to express how sad and disappointed this makes me.

 

[donny2112]

The reason the results are numberless is to obfuscate the data and protect sources. Leaning toward just posting the top 1 or 2 (still numberless) in future non-public months, then as a result. That'd serve the purpose of providing a fill-in for the annual results (top predictor for the month fills in for missing data for the Full Year predictions) and still give some idea of how things went for the month.

As it's also just plain fun to see how you rank, though, could use the top predictor as "the truth" and rank everyone compared to that. That'd be a "just for fun" ranking, though. The annuals would still be based on the actual results. This "just for fun" ranking would be inherently flawed, of course, but it'd at least give some idea of overall positioning for the month. As Bruno MB said, I also much prefer to post numbered rankings on real data, but that's only possible when the results are public.

Spoiler

If most of the year is like this, this may be the last year I do predictions.

Hopefully we'll start getting public data again in the months ahead, though!

 

[Vena]

What if I don't want to be reduced to a scalar?

 

[N.Domixis]

How is the gap being caluclated? Makes no sense unless someone secretly knew them.

 

[Calm Mind]

The calm before the storm.