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January 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, February 7th

D

donny2112

Member
Full year 2017 prediction thread is here.

ITT, predict for the NPD January 2017 retail period (January 1-28, 2017) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, February 7th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: January 1-28, 2017 (4 weeks, December was 5 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, February 9th @ 4 p.m. EST (public thread with physical+digital posted 1 week later on February 16th ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:
Note: NSW will be added to the predictions in March with its launch.

[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in January:


Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[PS4]
[XB1]

December's Results
PS4 - 1568K
XB1 - 1511K

December 2015 NPD thread
January 2016 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
[PS4] 218K
[XB1] 200K

Pro: 44K

Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of December to January. This is where comparing weekly averages is better than simple month to month because December is a 5 week month while January is only 4 (except for the odd time where it is 5 weeks such as 2013). I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for January to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.

Also, I will continue to have a Nintendo comparison this month but starting next month I will be dropping Nintendo home consoles until after the Switch launches. I am thinking of bringing back Nintendo with 3DS when the Switch launches but February onward will not have Wii/Wii U comparisons.

Note: The year indicates January, so 2011 is comparing December 2010 and January 2011 and so on.

Code: 
2011

Xbox 360 December: 1.86M / 5 = 372,000
Xbox 360 January: 381K / 4 = 95,250

Weekly average down 74%

PS3 December: 1.21M / 5 = 242,000
PS3 January: 267K / 4 = 66,750

Weekly average down 72%

Wii December: 2.36M / 5 = 472,000
Wii January: 319K / 4 = 79,750

Weekly average down 83%

Code: 
Notable Events in January

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Dead Space 2 [1 week] [~265K]

[u]PS3[/u]
LittleBigPlanet 2 [2 weeks] [353K]
DC Universe Online [3 weeks] [~190K]
Dead Space 2 [1 week] [~176K]

Code: 
2012

Xbox 360 December: 1.73M / 5 = 346,000
Xbox 360 January: 270K / 4 = 67,500

Weekly average down 80%

PS3 December: 950K / 5 = 190,000
PS3 January: 195K / 4 = 48,750

Weekly average down 74%

Wii December: 1.06M / 5 = 212,000
Wii January: 152K / 4 = 38,000

Weekly average down 82%

Code: 
Notable Events in January

N/A

Code: 
2013

Xbox 360 December: 1.4M / 5 = 280,000
Xbox 360 January: 281K / 5 = 56,200

Weekly average down 80%

PS3 December: 635K / 5 = 127,000
PS3 January: 201K / 5 = 40,200

Weekly average down 68%

Wii December: 475K / 5 = 95,000
Wii January: 100K / 5 = 20,000

Weekly average down 79%

Wii U December: 460K / 5 = 92,000
Wii U January: 57K / 5 = 11,400

Weekly average down 88%

Code: 
Notable Events in January

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
One additional tracking week

[u]PS3[/u]
One additional tracking week

[u]Wii[/u]
One additional tracking week

[u]Wii U[/u]
One additional tracking week

Code: 
2014

Xbox 360 December: 643K / 5 = 128,600
Xbox 360 January: 48K / 4 = 12,000

Weekly average down 91%

Xbox One December: 908K / 5 = 181,600
Xbox One January: 143K / 4 = 35,750

Weekly average down 80%

PS3 December: 299K / 5 = 59,800
PS3 January: 54K / 4 = 13,500

Weekly average down 77%

PS4 December: 863K / 5 = 172,600
PS4 January: 271K / 4 = 67,750

Weekly average down 61%

Wii December: 150K / 5 = 30,000
Wii January: 10K / 4 = 2,500

Weekly average down 92%

Wii U December: 481K / 5 = 96,200
Wii U January: 49K / 4 = 12,250

Weekly average down 87%

Code: 
Notable Events in January

[u]PS4[/u]
Supply constrained, Demand > Supply

Code: 
2015

Xbox 360 December: 309K / 5 = 61,800
Xbox 360 January: 39K / 4 = 9,750

Weekly average down 84%

Xbox One December: 1.297M / 5 = 259,400
Xbox One January: 150K / 4 = 37,500

Weekly average down 86%

PS3 December: 174K / 5 = 34,800
PS3 January: 34K / 4 = 8,500

Weekly average down 76%

PS4 December: 1.065M / 5 = 213,000
PS4 January: 189K / 4 = 47,250

Weekly average down 78%

Wii December: 29K / 5 = 5,800
Wii January: 8K / 4 = 2,000

Weekly average down 66%

Wii U December: 575K / 5 = 115,000
Wii U January: 63K / 4 = 15,750

Weekly average down 86%

Code: 
Notable Events in January

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Price raise $50 ($399) January 4th (12 days)

Price drop $50 ($349) January 16th (16 days)

Code: 
2016

360/PS3/Wii = Basically dead and no data leaked for January

Xbox One December: 1.376M / 5 = 275,200
Xbox One January: 132K / 4 = 33,000

Weekly average down 88%

PS4 December: 1.582M / 5 = 316,400
PS4 January: 230K / 4 = 57,500

Weekly average down 82%

Wii U December: 463K / 5 = 92,600
Wii U January: 40K / 4 = 10,000

Weekly average down 89%

Code: 
Notable Events in January

[u]PS4[/u]
First January after price drop ($349)

Code: 
2016 December Weekly Averages

PS4: 1.568M / 5 = 313,600
Xbox One: 1.511M / 5 = 302,200

Code: 
Notable Events in January

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Resident Evil 7 [1 week]

[u]PS4[/u]
Price raise $50 ($299) January 1st
First January for PS4 Pro

Resident Evil 7 [1 week]

Notes:

Dead month after the holiday shopping season. For a one to one comparison, December 2011 to January 2012 is the exact same time frame that we have this year (November 27th - December 31st to January 1st - January 28th). Not much else to say besides consumers waiting for tax refunds to begin in February.

Xbox
The Xbox 360 dropped by an average of -82%, with a minimum of -74% (2011) and maximum of -91% (2014). Remove that -91% which appears to be an anomaly and the Xbox 360 dropped an average of 80%.

For the Xbox One, it has had some pretty weak drops going into January. January 2014 was when being priced at $499 showed that Xbox One was going to have trouble, January 2015 had some weird decisions made by Microsoft. They really tried to raise the price back up to $399 after an amazing holiday at $349 for about 2 weeks, and then they dropped the price back to $349. January 2016 then had a massive drop thanks to raising the price back up to $349 after a holiday at $299 and was now at price parity with the PS4, which had its first January at a reduced price of $349. Each January has so far had a worse drop than the last, averaging a drop of 85%, with a minimum of -70% (2014) and maximum of -88% (2016).

Thanks to the launch of the Xbox One S, sales in 2016 improved over comparable months in 2015, besides for November, but did help Xbox One achieve record sales (for the console) of 1.5M in December. The success of XB1S can help the drop in January compared to previous years, but probably not significantly.

Playstation
The PS3 dropped by an average -74% with a minimum of -68% (2013) and maximum of -77% (2014).

PS4 has a pretty clear outlier in 2014 has there were stock shortages for holiday 2013 and early 2014. A drop of -61% is much smaller than the average ~80% drop that every other console usually gets, as seen when PS4 had more reasonable drops of -78% (2015) and 82% (2016).

One thing to note with PS4 is that there is a second console being counted in its results now, the PS4 Pro. The PS4 Pro launched this past November for $399 and this will be its for first January. Below is the Pro's result in December, as well as the weekly average for PS4 sales minus Pro.

Code: 
2016 December Weekly Averages

PS4: 1.33M / 5 = 266,000
Pro: 238K / 5 = 47,600

Nintendo

The Wii dropped an average of -80% with a minimum of -66% (2011) and maximum of -92% (2012). Both of those results could be considered outliers on their own but removing them just pushes the average down to -81% so they basically cancel each other out.

Last month I noted that compared to the HD Twins 2, Wii U performed amazingly (relatively) going into December from November. Well... going into January that performance is inverted. Wii U basically crashes, with an average drop of -88% with a minimum of -86% (2015) and maximum of -89% (2016).

Recap

January is a dead month after the holiday season and consumers waiting for tax returns in February.

The biggest January ever recorded back in the 7th was the Wii with 679,200 back in 2009. Second biggest? Wii again with 465,800 in 2010.

The biggest January ever recorded in the 8th is the PS4 with 271,000 in 2014. Second biggest? PS4 again with 230,000 in 2016.
 
A

AmyS

Member
Yes! We get to see January numbers a lot earlier in the month of February than the December numbers in January.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
StrongBlackVine said:
Not a single game to boost sales for Xbox. We'll see if all these smaller exclusives and heavily associated PS franchises(Resident Evil) do anything to boost sales for PS4.
Click to expand...
Smaller exclusives? In Japan, definitely. In the US, only a negligible amount of units will be moved. While Resident Evil 7 was universally acclaimed by critics and fans, I highly doubt it will move a substantial amount of consoles. The game should see some pretty nice legs, though.

Thanks for the wall of text, Welfare! I will put up my predictions in a few days. CNY is a busy, busy time for me!
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
[PS4] 220K
[XB1] 180K

Considering how important margin of error is with only two systems, I will most likely change these after hearing from our retail friends.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
This is a little segment I wanted to separate from the above comparison as this is purely a look at recent results by the Xbox One and Xbox One S versus the PS4 and PS4 Slim. I want to start this with the holidays (plus October) as the launch of both systems (August/September) skews results.

Note: According to this quote from gamesindustry.biz ”The PlayStation 4 Pro accounted for 18 percent of total PlayStation 4 units sold in the November-December period." From WindowsCentral, we know the PS4 sold 1,100,000 in November and 1,568,000 in December, for a total 2,668,000, and we know PS4 Pro sold 238,000 in December.

2,668,000 * 0.18 = 480,000
480,000 - 238,000 = 242,000

1,100,000 - 242,000 = 858,000

So in November, The PS4 + PS4 Slim sold 858,000 and Pro debuted at 242,000.

October
XB1: 329,000
PS4: 235,000
Gap: 94,000

November
XB1: 1,000,000
PS4: 858,000
Gap: 142,000

December
XB1: 1,511,000
PS4: 1,330,000
Gap: 181,000

What I find interesting here is December, as PS4 was available for $50 cheaper than the XB1 for an additional week (XB1 500GB $249 December 11 - December 24, PS4 500GB $249 December 11 - December 31) and the gap between the two still widened from November.

Something to think about for January as both are back to price parity and Pro is out of the launch/holiday period.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
And so it begins. Again. Perhaps this time I will avoid a dumb formatting error that ends up costing me the #1 ranking for the year. I was so close... T_T

hanspampel said:
[PS4] 200K +/- 15K
[XB1] 190K +/- 20K
Click to expand...

Oh for crying out loud! Really? Why do you insist on doing this? Why? Can we please not drag this random +/- deviation into a new year of predictions? Please? Giving yourself an arbitrary handicap only so you can then brag about how close you were with said handicap is just UGH. Way to start of the year on a bad note.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
RexNovis said:
Oh for crying out loud! Really? Why do you insist on doing this? Why? Can we please not drag this random +/- deviation into a new year of predictions? Please? Giving yourself an arbitrary handicap only so you can then brag about how close you were with said handicap is just UGH. Way to start of the year on a bad note.
Click to expand...
Take it easy, man. Let him pat himself on his own back, no one else is doing it. It's not worth risking your account for this. Besides, the parser doesn't pick up the deviations, so it's not like it's screwing with the predictions.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Javin98 said:
Take it easy, man. Let him pat himself on his own back, no one else is doing it. It's not worth risking your account for this. Besides, the parser doesn't pick up the deviations, so it's not like it's screwing with the predictions.
Click to expand...

I'm not really seeing any thing risky in my comment. It literally only exists so that the person in question can come back and make a smug vainglorious post about how prescient they were for getting so close to the final figures despite the advantage their random deviations provide over literally everyone else doing the same thing. It is maddeningly petty and I was really hoping we could avoid it going into a new year of predictions.

Its basically the equivalent to a toddler demanding to play a game of monopoly but insisting on changing the rules so that everyone must pay a tax of $500 to him and only him at the end of every turn then going on to boast about how good they are at Monopoly when they do better than others were able to without special new rules made to benefit them.
Having a spoiled little brat for a little brother growing up sucks.

Or we could all just start attaching random deviations to all our predictions thereby completely defeating the point of predictions in the process. But hey then EVERYONE could be a winner right? Because who can really lose when you can just give yourself arbitrary margins of error on every figure you predict?
 
J

Javin98

Banned
RexNovis said:
I'm not really seeing any thing risky in my comment. It literally only exists so that the person in question can come back and make a smug vainglorious post about how prescient they were for getting so close to the final figures despite the advantage their random deviations provide over literally everyone else doing the same thing. It is maddeningly petty and I was really hoping we could avoid it going into a new year of predictions.

Its basically the equivalent to a toddler demanding to play a game of monopoly but insisting on changing the rules so that everyone must pay a tax of $500 to him and only him at the end of every turn then going on to boast about how good they are at Monopoly when they do better than others were able to without special new rules made to benefit them.
Having a spoiled little brat for a little brother growing up sucks.

Or we could all just start attaching random deviations to all our predictions thereby completely defeating the point of predictions in the process. But hey then EVERYONE could be a winner right? Because who can really lose when you can just give yourself arbitrary margins of error on every figure you predict?
Click to expand...
I totally understand, man. But I feel when someone just doesn't get it when you're advising them time and time again, it's best to just let it go and perhaps even start ridiculing them instead. It's a lot more enjoyable for yourself, at least.
 
V

vivekTO

Member
[PS4] 220K
[XB1] 175K

I think That will work for now , Sony Has lots of exclusive this Month but they may not be able to move much units by themselves. Therefore not much of a gap.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Sometimes it's best to ignore something you disagree with that someone else is doing, if it doesn't materially affect you or anyone else. Drawing attention to it escalates the disagreement, when de-escalation may be the more advisable course.

Never forget.

duty_calls.png
 
N

N.Domixis

Banned
Welfare said:
This is a little segment I wanted to separate from the above comparison as this is purely a look at recent results by the Xbox One and Xbox One S versus the PS4 and PS4 Slim. I want to start this with the holidays (plus October) as the launch of both systems (August/September) skews results.

Note: According to this quote from gamesindustry.biz “The PlayStation 4 Pro accounted for 18 percent of total PlayStation 4 units sold in the November-December period." From WindowsCentral, we know the PS4 sold 1,100,000 in November and 1,568,000 in December, for a total 2,668,000, and we know PS4 Pro sold 238,000 in December.

2,668,000 * 0.18 = 480,000
480,000 - 238,000 = 242,000

1,100,000 - 242,000 = 858,000

So in November, The PS4 + PS4 Slim sold 858,000 and Pro debuted at 242,000.

October
XB1: 329,000
PS4: 235,000
Gap: 94,000

November
XB1: 1,000,000
PS4: 858,000
Gap: 142,000

December
XB1: 1,511,000
PS4: 1,330,000
Gap: 181,000

What I find interesting here is December, as PS4 was available for $50 cheaper than the XB1 for an additional week (XB1 500GB $249 December 11 - December 24, PS4 500GB $249 December 11 - December 31) and the gap between the two still widened from November.

Something to think about for January as both are back to price parity and Pro is out of the launch/holiday period.
Click to expand...
Interesting, with pro Sony has Jan then. Still don't know why it matters. A Ps4 pro is a ps4 is a ps4. Just think of it as a ps4 bundled with more power. It takes sales from regular slim like any bundle that has ever made done.
 
S

Shizza

Member
[PS4] 185k
[XB1] 135k

Edit: I took another look at holiday (Nov + Dec) sales compared to the following month (Jan), and on second thought I'm leaning toward the XB1 being closer to flat YoY (rather than up significantly and matching PS4 sales). I think the bump from the XB1-S has run it's course now that the holiday shopping has passed, especially with the end of the holiday sale prices. For the PS4, I'm going to go against the (Jan) YoY bump seen in Japan (and attribute that to a slower initial adoption rate than in the US), but it should still experience a health gap over the XB1.
 
O

Ombala

Member
[PS4] 210K +/- 210K
[XB1] 205K +/- 205K

There now I feel good about my predictions!

Yeah its stupid will edit later
 
W

watdaeff4

Member
PS4>XB1>Dreamcast/WiiU

I don't see any reason why PS4 won't win the month. The question to me at least is will it be up or down YoY. Hoping up but not holding my breath

I think XB1 will be up YoY but mainly because the first half of 2016 was not kind for XB sales
 
J

Javin98

Banned
[PS4] 225K
[XB1] 205K

Screw it, found the time to do some analysis. I'm going to be more optimistic than you guys and I don't think the weekly drops will be as massive as some of you think. Really hope I'm right. :p
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
StrongBlackVine said:
Not a single game to boost sales for Xbox. We'll see if all these smaller exclusives and heavily associated PS franchises(Resident Evil 7 plus VR) do anything to boost sales for PS4.
Click to expand...
No launch, no major game releases, no holiday and no price drop.

I think this month will indicate how much momentum the X1S has. Given the poor performance of the OG X1, I think X1S will be up either way. Hopefully by a decent amount.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
I think PS4 will remain on top. January usually isn't a good month for the Xbox One, but likely will be up YoY, that's something.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
Welfare said:
What I find interesting here is December, as PS4 was available for $50 cheaper than the XB1 for an additional week (XB1 500GB $249 December 11 - December 24, PS4 500GB $249 December 11 - December 31) and the gap between the two still widened from November.
Click to expand...

while that is true, Xbox had this deal
XBOX_PROMO_DEC24_HERO-hero.jpg


RexNovis said:
I'm not really seeing any thing risky in my comment. It literally only exists so that the person in question can come back and make a smug vainglorious post about how prescient they were for getting so close to the final figures despite the advantage their random deviations provide over literally everyone else doing the same thing. It is maddeningly petty and I was really hoping we could avoid it going into a new year of predictions.

Its basically the equivalent to a toddler demanding to play a game of monopoly but insisting on changing the rules so that everyone must pay a tax of $500 to him and only him at the end of every turn then going on to boast about how good they are at Monopoly when they do better than others were able to without special new rules made to benefit them.
Having a spoiled little brat for a little brother growing up sucks.

Or we could all just start attaching random deviations to all our predictions thereby completely defeating the point of predictions in the process. But hey then EVERYONE could be a winner right? Because who can really lose when you can just give yourself arbitrary margins of error on every figure you predict?
Click to expand...

Jesus!
When people quote you i still have to see your post. well this time it's totally worth it.
So beside this kind of posts and you asking other member via pm to help get me banned, i really wonder what's next

you should seek out for help with your anger issues and learn to deal with people and their actions you don't like and agree with.
or maybe you're just trolling. I can't tell anymore
 
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