I think you misunderstood my original post. I don't think it will replace consoles. I think that there are going to be more (not more than just more) people that do mobile only who traditionally would get a console. How much that is nobody knows.
I don't agree with us being 10-20 years away. It probably won't get too big in the several years though But cloud gaming doesn't have to explode and be big to have an impact on console gaming.
Again my point is that there's a bunch of things that would take away from the PlayStation 5 selling 200M or even the 115M the PS4. I'm not saying it's going to be 0 sales I'm saying because of all the stronger (again not stronger than but stronger) alternatives to console gaming or just other console alternatives. That I don't think you are going to see the crazy growth the analyst is predicting and may even see stagnation or some sort of decline in raw units sold.
I remember when at the start of this generation I was saying that PS4 was going to sell at least 130-140M and people was laughing at me. I think that for several reasons PS5 will outsell PS4.
The main reason is that market console will continue growing since many years ago, and that now Sony is in a better position than when they did start the PS4 gen: bigger install base, smotther transition to next gen thanks to BC and free upgrade PS5 version for free in the main crossgen games and so on, bigger amount of 1st party teams, more important exclusive IPs thanks to the new ones released or rebooted this gen (Horizon, Days Gone, Spiderman, God of War, Bloodborne...), Nintendo and MS with a more different focus compared to Sony so competing less directly, way stronger launch day line-up and 1st year line-up of exclusive games than PS4 and way weaker in MS side (an indie as only next gen only console exclusive on launch day, Halo as only big console exclusive for its first year)...and then there are clues like Sony increasing their manufacturing compared to PS4, fixing/improving some small issues they had at PS4, etc.
Then in gaming there are the two main trends that are streaming and VR, both pioneered in consoles by Sony. They are the ones with the higher experience, game catalog and userbase. We still have to see their public announcement for next gen offerings on these markets, but from many sources we know they are working on PSVR2 and a next gen PS Now. They are in the best position to compete in these markets, and as we know they seem to be addressing the main issues these systems have and applying the logical next gen improvements that according to common sense they should do, as they did with PS5. One of them was to fix their shitty base PS4 wifi and to replace it with a state-of-the-art, future proof wifi6. And then to add Bluetooth 5.1 for the pad. This seems a detail, but it's going to be key for remote play and PS Now specially in the long term, once wifi6 routers become the norm. And this will give them a lead over Series X and Switch regarding streaming.
Until now, streaming and VR have been too small, an anecdote. During this gen, so in the next 7 years or so, we expect them to mature and grow. Yes, they will improve and become bigger, but I think they won't go full mainstream. In the case of game streaming, for the reasons I mentioned and because its business plan doesn't align well with the needs of platform holders and game publishers: in the platform holder side, the costs of servers are a huge moster, and to pay new or important old games to be put their games there is too high, and if instead of doing it in this way to pay them per downloads or play time (like in Spotify/Netflix way) isn't a good business for publishers because the money earned in this way is too low.
This means that they need to rework is business model before scaling it up, one of the reasons of why Sony didn't bring it to all countries (being the other ones the listed in my previous posts).
Sony knows that makes sense to put in subscriptions mostly old games to don't affect its sales and to consider game streaming as a support revenue source for the game once they stopped selling, it works for them, but to attract players adding new games to the subscription as MS does isn't a good business. So maybe they go with a mixed approach: old games streamed from a subscription and new games streamed but purchasing them separatedly of the subscription in a Stadia way, which would also allow players without the console to buy games.
This approach may make sense for both players, publishers and the platform holders. If they don't find something appealing for both 3, they won't be able to scale it, so it won't grow until the limits that the stuff I mentioned in the other post that is limiting the game streaming may allow (good enough internet connections with good fiber or 5G/6G in only a few places instead of worldwide, 2/3 players using wifi and shitty wifi version and shitty routers, important countries with internet data cap, etc).
So I think game streaming will grow this generation, but only until a moderate size. Won't be something big. Next gen PS Now may find the sweet spot in business terms and catalog offering, and at least did they work with wifi, bluetooth and compression (Kraken) hardware to reduce latency, and we'll see if they also did a good job on the codec part (resolution/framerate/image quality to at least match their competition) and in the servers side.
I'm pretty confident they will do a good job, so have an advantage on top of the ones they already have (the biggest game streaming catalog with many old classics, many big PS exclusives, the biggest work experience and knowledge, the biggest userbase and revenue of a game streaming service) to continue leading the game streaming market during this next gen.
I think being game streaming leaders or not won't help them to sell or not a big amount of consoles, because I think game streaming market still will be relatively small even if it's going to grow compared to the current gen. And I think that even if the quality will improve over the current gen, the experience will be noticiably worse than when playing offline for many players, so I think almost all game streaming players will continue also playing on console this gen.
In addition to this, I think that in the same way that the growth of the mobile market didn't stop the console market growth, I think the game streaming market growth won't stop the console gaming market growth. But as I said, I think PS5 won't sell 200M consoles. I expect PS4 to reach around 150M, and PS5 maybe slightly higher than that (maybe around 160M or slightly more). The console market will grow, PS5 will be a better product with a better offering and with competition more focused on other things, and a game streaming market that won't steal users because I think will continue being relatively small and compatible with also playing on the console, and it's likely that the game streaming market leader will continue being PS Now, which will be played best on PS5 due to being able to download games or due to wifi 6 and Bluetooth 5.1.