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[Sage00]

Sage00... just a question. are you aware of what New Super Mario Bros did in Japan on the DS? are you aware that Smash Bros Melee was the best selling game on the GameCube?

i'm not saying those things aren't counterable... i just want to know if you're aware of those things. Melee was bigger than anything else on the GameCube, and while it's only speculation now to say that sales of NSMB will translate to sales of Galaxy to any large degree, the last Mario platformer fucking dwarfs just about anything on a Sony system from the last couple of years.

sales agers feel free to correct me if i'm wrong and something like FF12 has comparable numbers.

Woah wait, I'm not trying to downplay the impact of SMG or SSBB at all, I'm sure they will be the fastest selling games this holiday season, and I'm definitely not saying MnG PSP will "counter" them :lol it's not even the same market.

I'm not sure if everyone picked this one up, but my original point was sarcasm. He said PSP could not keep selling well with CC -> MGS -> MnG, which I responded with a similar Wii comparison. What I'm trying to say is these games can sustain PSP's hardware bump, not that Wii's games will not.

 

[DefectiveReject]

What I'm trying to say is these games can sustain PSP's hardware bump, not that Wii's games will not.

50% drop this week says it won't sustain anything

 

[Sage00]

50% drop this week says it won't sustain anything

Yeah because a drop off from 200+k wasn't expected? I didn't say that. I said it would sustain good sales.

And you've set the bar pretty low for that now. More than 25k and PSP is in the clear then.

But I'm expecting PSP to take up Wii's average of around the 40-60k mark.

 

[jarrod]

I'm not sure if everyone picked this one up, but my original point was sarcasm. He said PSP could not keep selling well with CC -> MGS -> MnG, which I responded with a similar Wii comparison. What I'm trying to say is these games can sustain PSP's hardware bump, not that Wii's games will not.

The difference is, there's a 3 month gap between CC/MGS and Mingol P2, while there's likely around a 3 week gap between each of the Wii games. Wii also has a much fuller general schedule, with way higher profile B/C tier fill ins to keep fans happy.

PSP's Q4 is a wasteland, it's even worse than PS3 or 360 actually. :/

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Even though I'm sure preorders won't ever equate to Day 1 (or necessarily even Week 1) purchases... what is the largest opening week for a game in Japan?

Overall? Probably Dragon Quest VII; I don't have the numbers, but as the best selling entry of an extremely front-loaded series, it was probably 2.5+ million? I know VIII was 2.2 million.

For Wii? Dragon Quest Swords at about 300K.

Just based on the install base of about 350,000, I think the Halo 3 lifetime sales will likely end up being between 150,000 and 200,000.

Your install base is missing about 100K.

Europe. The games are not of the same year.

GameCube Animal Crossing was game of the year 2001 (Japan), 2002 (NA), 2003 (AUS), and 2004 (EU).

 

[plagiarize]

50% drop this week says it won't sustain anything

we have to see where it settles before we can really say that.

However, the reality is that for most of the year, Wii hardware sales were much higher even when there were no games released. For the time being, demand has lessened and Wii sales are disappointing, bottom line.

games drive demand. the wii had still not yet met the demand for the games that were out when the releases dried up. all those sales in the dry months were for people that wanted the system for those already released games but had yet to be able to get a wii.

no system, other than the DS, if good games stop coming out for it, would keep selling at the same level once supply catches up with demand. the DS is a unique case since it's sales don't fit the normal trends right across the board (titles with crazy legs... solid sales even in dry periods).

this 'dip' has been hidden until now, by the fact that supply hadn't caught up with demand. even the DS had a similar dip in it's (shorter) first year dry period... and first year dry periods are nothing new.

we'll see what happens once the huge winter titles hit... and go from there.

 

[Sage00]

The difference is, there's a 3 month gap between CC/MGS and Mingol P2, while there's likely around a 3 week gap between each of the Wii games. Wii also has a much fuller general schedule, with way higher profile B/C tier fill ins to keep fans happy.

PSP's Q4 is a wasteland, it's even worse than PS3 or 360 actually. :/

Castlevania, Tales of.., Anata o Yurusanai, Sakura Taisen 1&2, GTA VC, Disgaea, Mingol and Silent Hill 0 might not be the BEST lineup ever, but worse than 360/PS3, really? I think it's a nice enough lineup to get PSP up and above the 40k average it had before when it didn't even have any games.

 

[cw_sasuke]

SSBM first week sales: 357,101
GC installed base at the time: 428,789
Attach rate: 83.3%

this can`t be right , can it ?

 

[Magicpaint]

Overall? Probably Dragon Quest VII; I don't have the numbers, but as the best selling entry of an extremely front-loaded series, it was probably 2.5+ million? I know VIII was 2.2 million.

DQVII's opening week was 1.8m, I don't think it had higher first day sales than VIII, either.

 

[jarrod]

Castlevania, Tales of.., Anata o Yurusanai, Sakura Taisen 1&2, Disgaea, Mingol and Silent Hill 0 might not be the BEST lineup ever, but worse than 360/PS3, really? I think it's a nice enough lineup to get PSP up and above the 40k average it had before when it didn't even have any games.

Tales and ST1+2 are just budget reprints of already released games btw, they really wouldn't factor in much. CV's a dog franchise in Japan, Silent Hill's now gaijun made, and Disgaea Turbo's not going to do much... Mingol P2's really the lone PSP title of any significance in Japan for the rest of the year.

And yeah, PS360 are in quite a bit better shape...

PlayStation 3
10.11 Rise from Lair (SCEI)
10.11 The Godfather: The Don's Edition (EA)
10.17 Spider-Man 3 (Spike)
10.25 Imabi Kisou (SEGA)
10.25 The Eye of Judgment: Bioloth Rebellion - Set.1 (SCEI)
11.01 G1 Jockey 4 2007 (Koei)
11.01 Railfan: Taiwan Takatetsu (Ongakukan)
11.08 NBA Live 08 (EA)
11.08 Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2 (Ubisoft)
11.11 Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction (SCEI)
11.15 Heavenly Sword (SCEI)
11.22 Harry Potter to Fushichou no Kishidan (EA)
11.22 Remy no Oishii Restaurant (THQ)
11.22 Shin Sangoku Musou 5 (Koei)
11.22 World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008 (Konami)
11.29 Tony Hawk's Project 8 (Spike)
12.06 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney)
12.07 Conan (THQ)
12.13 Gran Turismo 5 Prologue (SCEI)
12.13 Stuntman: Ignition (THQ)
12.20 Medal of Honor: Airborne (EA)
12.20 Time Crisis 5 (BNGI)
12.31 Flower (SCEI)

Xbox 360
10.11 Operation Darkness (Success)
10.11 Project Gotham Racing 4 (MGS)
10.18 Beautiful Katamari Damacy (BNGI)
10.18 Zoids Alternative (Takara Tomy)
10.25 Blade Storm: Hyakunen Sensou (Koei)
10.25 Gundam Musou International (Koei)
11.01 Ace Combat 6: Kaihou e no Senka (BNGI)
11.08 Just Cause: Viva Revolution (EA)
11.08 Major League Baseball 2K7 (Spike)
11.08 Medal of Honor: Airborne (EA)
11.08 NBA Live 08 (EA)
11.22 Final Fantasy XI: Altana no Kamihei (Square Enix)
11.22 Harry Potter to Fushichou no Kishidan (EA)
11.22 Shin Sangoku Musou 5 (Koei)
11.22 World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008 (Konami)
11.29 Apocalypse: Desire Next (Idea Factory)
11.29 Assassin's Creed (Ubisoft)
11.29 Guilty Gear 2 Overture (ASN)
11.29 Tony Hawk's Project 8 (Spike)
12.06 Conan (THQ)
12.06 Lost Odyssey (MGS)
12.06 Virtua Fighter 5 LIVE Arena (SEGA)
12.13 Shikigami no Shiro 3 (ASN)
12.13 Smash Court Tennis 3 (BNGI)
12.13 Stuntman Ignition (THQ)


...I'm not doing the DS list, but it embarrasses everything. :lol

 

[cw_sasuke]

...I'm not doing the DS list, but it embarrasses everything. :lol

plz....

 

[Jokeropia]

this can`t be right , can it ?

It is. Here're GC's weekly sales from launch until SSBM release.

133,719
29,209
21,337
14,302
8,538
10,100
25,224
19,891
18,073
19,019
129,377 (SSBM release - 357,101 sold)

http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamecharting/vsps2gcn.php5
http://www.japan-gamecharts.com/gc.php/

 

[cw_sasuke]

It is. Here're GC's weekly sales from launch until SSBM release.

133,719
29,209
21,337
14,302
8,538
10,100
25,224
19,891
18,073
19,019
129,377 (SSBM release - 357,101 sold)

http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamecharting/vsps2gcn.php5
http://www.japan-gamecharts.com/gc.php/

wow

ssbb will be massive...killer-trio (smg,ssbb,wiifit) will end the console war in japan...

 

[Stumpokapow]

MnG 3 (first PS2 MnG) first week sales: 272,758.
PS2 installed base at the time: 3,851,752
Attach rate: ~7.1%

SSBM first week sales: 357,101
GC installed base at the time: 428,789
Attach rate: 83.3%

Comparable huh? :lol

hahahahah NICE

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

DQVII's opening week was 1.8m, I don't think it had higher first day sales than VIII.

Whoa, I was crazy wrong on that one then. Is DQVIII the biggest first week, then?

 

[charlequin]

The Wii is more popular than the PS3. This is not a difficult statement to make, and to state the converse would be laughable. I never denied it! But the shifting standards for "poor sales" are suspicious, especially given that 25k was actually incredibly good in comparison to the PS3 average, while 25k is incredibly bad in comparison to the Wii average, and both are pretty bad compared to the sales average set by the DS over the past year and a half.

Pretty much. A certain amount of adjustment does need to be made for the overall sales of a given week -- Wii doing 25k in a week where the whole market is down and it's still the best selling console isn't as "bad" as PS3 doing 25k in a week with high overall sales where it's doing one quarter the lead console's sales -- but Wii doing 25k is a poor number, absolutely. People who are trying to spin it as a good number are just making themselves look bad.

If you're really invested in the Wii's Japanese success, the correct position to hold is not that 25k is a good number (it's not) but that consoles with overall strong sales can have shitty sales for some periods and still be successful. The PS2 and PS1 both had their own slumps at times; the DS' example (where once it took off it really took off) isn't a good point of reference for, well, basically anything else ever.

 

[Frillen]

So, uhh, yeah.

Galaxy, SSBB and Wii-Fit will not only make up for the somewhat "bad" Wii sales lately, they will boost the console's sales to heaven and even further. The only thing that will stop it from reaching unimaginable numbers is that it's going to be hugely supply constrained. It will be impossbile to find a Wii by the end of December/beginning of Januar.

You're only going to own yourself hardcore by underestimating the power force which is Galaxy + SSBB + Wii-Fit. They're not only going to drive Wii sales in 07, but most likely for the first half of 08 and possibly for the whole year.

 

[Ikael]

Not similar to Crisis Core -> MGS: PO -> Minna no Golf at all, these games are on your system of choice so they magically add more momentum!

Thing is, Mario Galaxy, SSBB and Wiifit have a more broad broad appeal than the games that you cited, and target far more diverse publics. I really don't see any alpha mom playing crisis core, do you? Crisis Core and MGS: PO, as awesome as they are, are still focused in the "young male" demographic. Minna no golf is a saga with a broader appeal, but is still leages behind in popularity than say, Mario.

So, no, I don't think that they will add a similar momentuum. Even if I don't doubt that "the Playstation family" will see a spike of sales after these games hits, a la Halo 3 and xbox 360, but I don't think that they will change the sale treads.

 

[Magicpaint]

Whoa, I was crazy wrong on that one then. Is DQVIII the biggest first week, then?

I don't have access to first week sales of the Famicom DQ games, but from the SFC-PS2, DQVIII is the highest first week.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Looks like Mario Party 8 is going to have a hard time reaching 1m, can't say I'm sad about it

 

[jarrod]

Looks like Mario Party 8 is going to have a hard time reaching 1m, can't say I'm sad about it

Where's it placing this week and what are the ltd sales?

I dunno, if DS has taught us anything, it's that you shouldn't undercount catalog sales of big Nintendo games when the hardware bumps. Them boots are made for walkin'!

 

[apotema]

Looks like Mario Party 8 is going to have a hard time reaching 1m, can't say I'm sad about it

Nah I think it will, people will buy it this Christmas, and right now it's selling 10000 copies weekly

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

外.ぼくシム　8100
外.ケロロ　4300
外.ピクト　3100
外.バスフィッシング　2800
外.コーデッド　2600
外.GOC　1900
外.地獄少女　1400
外.パズルクエスト　1100

13.マリスト　20000（53000）
14.Mario Party 8　16000（835000）
15.家計　14000（221000）
22.FFCC　10000（363000）
26.MPO+DX　9300（24000）

Its going to take at least until Christmas bump, I wonder if it'll become another Love & Berry / Kirby / MHP case. Doesn't look like we will get figures for it during December (as in out of top30) so I guess we will have to rely on 2007 Top100 or something.

 

[tanod]

Your install base is missing about 100K.

Whoops, forgot to account for the 360s that might get sold in the next 5 years. Still stand by my 150k to 200k H3 estimate though.

 

[John Harker]

FFCCROF has been holding up pretty well WoW.
Its only been dropping ~3000 units

 

[jj984jj]

i.e. Halo 3 or Crisis Core should be #1 on M.C.

It'll be interesting to see which.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Kurosaki Ichigo: Whats the translations on those titles? All I see are ????

 

[GremlinInTheMachine]

Is the Wii still hard to find in Japan? I haven't been keeping up with the sales figures, but I know the theory was floated that Ninty had diverted stock to the US leaving fewer units for Japan. Has that now been discounted?

 

[Phife Dawg]

Go Halo 3! Yeah it still got beat by Pokemon but being the #1 SKU in the MC chart would be very cool.DSL actually climbed for five consecutive weeks or something after launch as the shipments gradually increased.

Ah OK. Thanks for clearing that up.

Yeah, it's retailer pre-orders, which is based on interest in the game from consumers.

SMG could have a 500K+ opening, almost double the 280K of SMS.

Thanks for the confirmation. Up to 500k seems possible and plausible. When I said huge I meant something along the lines of 750k. I'm still doubtful about that.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Whoops, forgot to account for the 360s that might get sold in the next 5 years.

No no, I mean X360 is at about 450K now.

X360 and Wii now find themselves in a race to surpass their predecessors, both of which should happen this year.

 

[Takuhi]

PSP's Q4 is a wasteland, it's even worse than PS3 or 360 actually. :/

That's generally true, but your list is missing one major title—Star Ocean: First Departure was just announced for 12/27. (Also available in a hardware bundle, apparently) That'll give the PSP one big holiday title, at least.

 

[jarrod]

That's generally true, but your list is missing one major title—Star Ocean: First Departure was just announced for 12/27. (Also available in a hardware bundle, apparently) That'll give the PSP one big holiday title, at least.

Must've been announced in this week's mags? Anything else to add in?

Mingol P2 should be a december release too, so things are looking up a bit for the platform... but still, lots of dead space in Oct/Nov. :/

 

[plagiarize]

Is the Wii still hard to find in Japan? I haven't been keeping up with the sales figures, but I know the theory was floated that Ninty had diverted stock to the US leaving fewer units for Japan. Has that now been discounted?

yes. wii's are widely available in Japan now. supply finally reached all the existing demand, and there isn't currently any new titles that are bringing in new demand... though it doesn't take a genius to see that 3 very potentially potent games are incoming.

 

[Busaiku]

Are those 700k orders for SMG retailer or consumer orders?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Are those 700k orders for SMG retailer or consumer orders?

Almost definitely retailer orders.

 

[jj984jj]

Kurosaki Ichigo: Whats the translations on those titles? All I see are ????

:

外.My Sims　8100
外.Keroro　4300
外.Pictoimage　3100
外.Bass Fishing　2800
外.Coded Arms 2　2600
外.GOC　1900
外.Jigoku Shoujo　1400
外.Puzzle Quest　1100

13.Mario Strikers　20000（53000）
14.Mario Party 8　16000（835000）
15.Budget Training　14000（221000）
22.FFCC　10000（363000）
26.MPO+DX　9300（24000）

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Thank You.

I think the PSP Q4 lineup is just now fleshing out, and has many bright spots. It has a good share of medium-to-big game launches as well, though nothing half as big as the Wii's lineup, granted.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

外.ぼくシム　8100
外.ケロロ　4300
外.ピクト　3100
外.バスフィッシング　2800
外.コーデッド　2600
外.GOC　1900
外.地獄少女　1400
外.パズルクエスト　1100

13.マリスト　20000（53000）
14.Mario Party 8　16000（835000）
15.家計　14000（221000）
22.FFCC　10000（363000）
26.MPO+DX　9300（24000）

Its going to take at least until Christmas bump, I wonder if it'll become another Love & Berry / Kirby / MHP case. Doesn't look like we will get figures for it during December (as in out of top30) so I guess we will have to rely on 2007 Top100 or something.

Another 20.000 for Mario Strikers. probably it will reach 100k LTD, but it is still a disappointment.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Another 20.000 for Mario Strikers. probably it will reach 100k LTD, but it is still a disappointment.

Given that Strikers GCN did 200k, yeah, it's a real disappointment.

 

[jj984jj]

I bet Konami is going uh-oh with Strikers sales on Wii over the GCN version. :lol

Thank You.

I think the PSP Q4 lineup is just now fleshing out, and has many bright spots. It has a good share of medium-to-big game launches as well, though nothing half as big as the Wii's lineup, granted.

Up until yesterday I would've disagreed, but with the two games confirmed by Famitsu for December it looks like it won't be Minna no Golf Portable 2 all alone after all. Though the line-up still doesn't compare to the 3 huge RPGs coming for the DS alone, much less the rest of the DS line-up.

 

[Magicpaint]

Given that Strikers GCN did 200k, yeah, it's a real disappointment.

I'm one of those that thought this came way too quickly after the GC version (it came well after Mario Tennis and Golf GC), so for a game that didn't exactly blow up the charts on GC, I'm not surprised it's underperforming here. Not everything can sell hundred times better on Wii, hopefully they can finally bring us Mario Golf and/or Tennis which I wanted way more than Strikers.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I'm one of those that thought this came way too quickly after the GC version (it came well after Mario Tennis and Golf GC), so for a game that didn't exactly blow up the charts on GC, I'm not surprised it's underperforming here. Not everything can sell hundred times better on Wii, hopefully they can finally bring us Mario Golf and/or Tennis which I wanted way more than Strikers.

I think it's what you're saying combined with that the sort of "marquee online title" status that Strikers had here isn't really there in Japan, since online gaming is less popular and PBR was a launch title there.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

I'm one of those that thought this came way too quickly after the GC version (it came well after Mario Tennis and Golf GC), so for a game that didn't exactly blow up the charts on GC, I'm not surprised it's underperforming here. Not everything can sell hundred times better on Wii, hopefully they can finally bring us Mario Golf and/or Tennis which I wanted way more than Strikers.

I disagree because of Mario Party 8: every year a Mario Party is out, but this doesn't mean it doesn't sell every year. Probably this will be the first one to reach the million mark.

But I don't know why Strikers failed. But there are other motivations. Well, maybe it will have legs (...maybe, but this won't change much...).

 

[jarrod]

I should note that my list only has games with confirmed dates... there's quite a few tba Q4 releases too. Looking at some of the larger/core pubs...

Wii
-Argos no Senshi: Muscle Impact (Tecmo)
-Caduceus 2 (Atlus)
-Code Geass: Hangyaku no Lelouch (BNGI)
-Karous (Milestone)
-Kateikyoushi Hitman Reborn! (MMV)
-Link's Crossbow Training (Nintendo)
-Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Nintendo)
-Metal Slug Complete (SNK Playmore)
-Soul Calibur Legends (BNGI)
-Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Nintendo)
-We Love Golf! (Capcom)
-Wii Fit (Nintendo)


PSP
-Bomberman Land Portable (Hudson)
-Minna no Golf Portable 2 (SCEI)
-Patapon (SCEI)
-Talkman Travel (SCEI)
-World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008 (Konami)

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I disagree because of Mario Party 8: every year a Mario Party is out, but this doesn't mean it don't sell. Probably this will be the first one to reach the million mark.

But I don't know why Strikers failed. Well, maybe it will have legs (...maybe, but this won't change much...).

I can think of many reasons why it failed. It's a pretty half-cocked sequel, for starters.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

I should note that my list only has games with confirmed dates... there's quite a few tba Q4 releases too. Looking at some of the larger/core pubs...

Wii
-Argos no Senshi: Muscle Impact (Tecmo)
-Caduceus 2 (Atlus)
-Code Geass: Hangyaku no Lelouch (BNGI)
-Karous (Milestone)
-Kateikyoushi Hitman Reborn! (MMV)
-Link's Crossbow Training (Nintendo)
-Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Nintendo)
-Metal Slug Complete (SNK Playmore)
-Soul Calibur Legends (BNGI)
-Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Nintendo)
-We Love Golf! (Capcom)
-Wii Fit (Nintendo)


PSP
-Bomberman Land Portable (Hudson)
-Minna no Golf Portable 2 (SCEI)
-Patapon (SCEI)
-Talkman Travel (SCEI)
-World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008 (Konami)

Shit. I forgot Mario & Sonic. But it will not sell as much as many of you think in my opinion. Good sales, sure, but not comparable with Smash or Mario or Wii Fit.

Mario & Sonic prediction sales in Japan: between 400k (LTD) and 700k (LTD). (And considering Christmas - I suppose tehre will be a sort of Mario Party effect: Olimpic Games editions). Preorders will be interesting.

 

[Tron 2.0]

I agree with you that long term, this slump probably isn't reason for concern. However, the reality is that for most of the year, Wii hardware sales were much higher even when there were no games released. For the time being, demand has lessened and Wii sales are disappointing, bottom line.

A little late, but I still can't get behind the statement that Wii sales are disappointing. They are certainly lower than they were earlier in the year, but to still double the closest competitor without any games while the PS3 has had some releases is still fairly incredibly. We've just been spoiled from earlier in the year.

It seems to me that what's happened is that those people that were going to buy Wiis even without the software already have. There was absolute mania the past few months. But now, those that haven't purchased the Wii yet are waiting until the software starts rolling in and those that weren't too concerned about releases have already picked one up.

The Wii has slowed down as of late, but how is that disappointing? No one really expected it to carry that momentum indefinitely.

 

[Tron 2.0]

I can think of many reasons why it failed. It's a pretty half-cocked sequel, for starters.

You know, I'm really happy with the game, but I still agree.

Obviously it was meant for the Gamecube. But the small tweaks they made were definitely for the better and online is appreciated.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Up until yesterday I would've disagreed, but with the two games confirmed by Famitsu for December it looks like it won't be Minna no Golf Portable 2 all alone after all. Though the line-up still doesn't compare to the 3 huge RPGs coming for the DS alone, much less the rest of the DS line-up.

Well, yea, but the confirmed bigger games (Minna no Golf, Gundam, Castlevania, Silent Hill) plus the other ones coming out the woodwork recently with no solid release date (Star Ocean, Tales Of, others I cant think of) and even more that haven't been Famitsu'd yet, I'd say it's in OK state. Not dire or as dry as people may say at first glance. I don't know why it's taking so long for certain games to be unveiled though.

 

[jarrod]

Shit. I forgot Mario & Sonic. But it will not sell as much as many of you think in my opinion. Good sales, sure, but not comparable with Smash or Mario or Wii Fit.

Agreed, though it may be a strong second tier title (a la Made in Wario, Zelda TP or SPM).

It could possibly outsell Mingol P2 really. :lol