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[Mpl90]

I definitely see Inazuma Eleven Go and Super Mario 3D Land being hurt from the fact that there are so many titles being released this Winter.
Given the lower amount of total users, I definitely cannot see Inazuma Eleven Go getting near 1 million.
I think Super Mario 3D Land may make it there eventually, but definitely not this year, but it may be harder for it than Super Mario 64 DS or either of the Super Mario Galaxy games.
And Monster Hunter Tri G may be hurt a little, due to the fact that there are a lot of other titles (which it in turn will also be likely to detract sales from) designed for more core gamers.

I definitely see Mario Kart 7 being the big winner this holiday and onwards though.

Hey, there are those things called legs, ya know
And however Mario 3D Land is out on 3rd November... a month before the December M3DNESS

 

[Busaiku]

And however Mario 3D Land is out on 3rd November... a month before the December M3DNESS

Yeah, but it's also 1 day after Rocket Slime.
It's not as big as 3D Super Mario, but I do think a good portion of the audience is similar.

But of course this will hurt Rocket Slime more than it does Super Mario 3D Land.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Predictions:

[3DS] Senran Kagura (Marvelous Entertainment) - 53,000
[PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Tag Force 6 (Konami) - 60,000
[PS3] Dark Souls (From Software) - 210,000
[PS3] ICO (SCE) - 47,000
[PS3] Shadow of the Colossus (SCE) - 47,000
[360] Gears of War 3 (Microsoft Game Studios) - 24,000

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Predictions
[3DS] Senran Kagura (Marvelous Entertainment) - 35k
[PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Tag Force 6 (Konami) - 47k
[PS3] Dark Souls (From Software) - 197k
[PS3] ICO (SCE) - 75k
[PS3] Shadow of the Colossus (SCE) - 77k
[360] Gears of War 3 (Microsoft Game Studios) - 35k

 

[saichi]

I definitely see Inazuma Eleven Go and Super Mario 3D Land being hurt from the fact that there are so many titles being released this Winter.
Given the lower amount of total users, I definitely cannot see Inazuma Eleven Go getting near 1 million.
I think Super Mario 3D Land may make it there eventually, but definitely not this year, but it may be harder for it than Super Mario 64 DS or either of the Super Mario Galaxy games.
And Monster Hunter Tri G may be hurt a little, due to the fact that there are a lot of other titles (which it in turn will also be likely to detract sales from) designed for more core gamers.

I definitely see Mario Kart 7 being the big winner this holiday and onwards though.

I maintain that Inazuma Eleven Go is scheduled to release at a tough spot. However, 1 million copies in Japan for Inazuma Eleven Go is completely unfair expectation. I would think 500K is a realistic goal.

Don't think SM3DL or MH Tri-G would be affected though.

 

[Chris1964]

I don't see many 3DS games underperforming this December and if they do the stuffed release schedule won't be the reason as there aren't overlaping genres.

 

[baekshi]

[3DS] Senran Kagura (Marvelous Entertainment) - 42,000
[PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Tag Force 6 (Konami) - 52,000
[PS3] Dark Souls (From Software) - 150,000
[PS3] ICO (SCE) - 55,000
[PS3] Shadow of the Colossus (SCE) - 33,000
[360] Gears of War 3 (Microsoft Game Studios) - 9,000

 

[donny2112]

I don't see many 3DS games underperforming this December and if they do the stuffed release schedule won't be the reason as there aren't overlaping genres.

This reminds me of the U.S. Wii talk in 2007/2008. Some people put forward the idea that there was some kind of imaginary "cap" on total Wii software sales, and if Nintendo took more of that amount, it left less for third-parties who would've been putting games out in completely different genres. Obviously, I thought (and still think) that was stupid reasoning.

There'll be some overlap, as some people will like more than one game, but not so much as to be a long-term detriment to sales. Will be interesting to see how the big guns do, though. Lots of little games really took off with the prolonged DS shortages as people were just physically in stores more often trying to find a DS. I could imagine the big guns being comparable, but maybe with less filler underneath. Here's hoping for a lot of medium announcements to go with these "umbrella" games.

 

[thestopsign]

This reminds me of the U.S. Wii talk in 2007/2008. Some people put forward the idea that there was some kind of imaginary "cap" on total Wii software sales, and if Nintendo took more of that amount, it left less for third-parties who would've been putting games out in completely different genres. Obviously, I thought (and still think) that was stupid reasoning.

There'll be some overlap, as some people will like more than one game, but not so much as to be a long-term detriment to sales. Will be interesting to see how the big guns do, though. Lots of little games really took off with the prolonged DS shortages as people were just physically in stores more often trying to find a DS. I could imagine the big guns being comparable, but maybe with less filler underneath. Here's hoping for a lot of medium announcements to go with these "umbrella" games.

At this point the 3DS needs some games like Taiko 3DS, Ace Attorney (or Miles Edgeworth), Etrian Odyssey, Harvest Moon, Super Robot Wars, and Tamagotchi. The games that did solid numbers, but not necessarily were system sellers.

 

[Dash Kappei]

Predictions:

[3DS] Senran Kagura (Marvelous Entertainment) - 31,098
[PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Tag Force 6 (Konami) - 47,890
[PS3] Dark Souls (From Software) - 123,456
[PS3] ICO (SCE) - 48,901
[PS3] Shadow of the Colossus (SCE) - 67,890
[360] Gears of War 3 (Microsoft Game Studios) - 54,321

 

[djtiesto]

I need to get in on the MC predictions game...

Predictions
[3DS] Senran Kagura (Marvelous Entertainment) - 32k
[PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Tag Force 6 (Konami) - 70k
[PS3] Dark Souls (From Software) - 98k
[PS3] ICO (SCE) - 34k
[PS3] Shadow of the Colossus (SCE) - 55k
[360] Gears of War 3 (Microsoft Game Studios) - 21k

 

[Chris1964]

 

[Road]

Predictions:

[3DS] Senran Kagura (Marvelous Entertainment) - 33,333
[PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Tag Force 6 (Konami) - 55,555
[PS3] Dark Souls (From Software) - 188,888
[PS3] ICO (SCE) - 44,444
[PS3] Shadow of the Colossus (SCE) - 55,555
[360] Gears of War 3 (Microsoft Game Studios) - 44,444

 

[LOCK]

I see the 3DS hitting 4 million (min) by the end of the year according to that graph Chris.

I think November will be the key difference, as it could propel the 3DS to bigger gains if November titles breakout. December is going to do great anyway thanks to Mario Kart and MH3G.

 

[walking fiend]

[3DS] Senran Kagura (Marvelous Entertainment) - 78K
[PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Tag Force 6 (Konami) - 62k
[PS3] Dark Souls (From Software) - 210k
[PS3] ICO (SCE) - 36k
[PS3] Shadow of the Colossus (SCE) - 56k
[360] Gears of War 3 (Microsoft Game Studios) - 56k

Any info on how much SK has been shipped?

 

[electroplankton]

I think that IE Go is a bit misplaced there too, but it'll just do fine in order to establish then brand on 3DS just as Layton 5 did; a sequel will surely improve in terms of sales. I'm no worried about Mario Land though, because there's the possibility to sell until the life cycle of the console is over just as NSMB did (is doing actually).

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

I'm feeling positive here, extremely high estimates for everything!

[3DS] Senran Kagura (Marvelous Entertainment) - 53,342
[PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Tag Force 6 (Konami) - 42,212
[PS3] Dark Souls (From Software) - 213,932
[PS3] ICO (SCE) - 75,232
[PS3] Shadow of the Colossus (SCE) - 84,234
[360] Gears of War 3 (Microsoft Game Studios) - 41,323
[PS3] ToHeart2 DXPLUS 333,000(Plus or minus a zero)

 

[Kenka]

Mmh, I feel like copying FINALFANTASYDOG but for the sake of variety:

[3DS] Senran Kagura (Marvelous Entertainment) - 45'666
[PSP] Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D's Tag Force 6 (Konami) - 41'333
[PS3] Dark Souls (From Software) - 189'001
[PS3] ICO (SCE) - 13'131
[PS3] Shadow of the Colossus (SCE) - 49'494
[360] Gears of War 3 (Microsoft Game Studios) - 56'888


ToHeart 2 being the exception. Has it also launched last week ?

 

[gembel]

i think dark souls might hit 300k

 

[BurntPork]

I see the 3DS hitting 4 million (min) by the end of the year according to that graph Chris.

I think November will be the key difference, as it could propel the 3DS to bigger gains if November titles breakout. December is going to do great anyway thanks to Mario Kart and MH3G.

That's insane. It'll be about 3 million at best. October is going to a poor month outside of the pink 3DS release.

 

[Yoshichan]

i think dark souls might hit 300k

We can all wish!

[PS3] ICO (SCE) - 13'131

Damn.

 

[gkryhewy]

That's insane. It'll be about 3 million at best. October is going to a poor month outside of the pink 3DS release.

3 million? By the end of the year? ..... Come on, dude.

Edit: look at the two holiday bumps on either end of the DS chart -- and in its launch year, DS wasn't yet the monstrous breakout success it became.

 

[BishopLamont]

That's insane. It'll be about 3 million at best. October is going to a poor month outside of the pink 3DS release.

It'll be 3M minimum, not best.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

3m would be absolute worst case scenario. It seems almost impossible given the platform's current sales, momentum and holiday lineup.

 

[Kenka]

Damn.

I bought the PS2 back in the days specifically for ICO but it sold rather poorly during its first weeks of sales in Japan. I don't see it suddenly sell several tens of thousands of copies in a couple of days. Shadow of the Colosseus on the other hand did have a frank success and was less overlooked. I except it to sell moar.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

3 million? By the end of the year? ..... Come on, dude.

1,250,000 by year end would be an average of ~78k a week from this week on, I think.

Assuming it manages a pair of 350k+ weeks in December like the DS did in 2005 - and that's a big if, even with the great lineup - you'd be looking at an average per week of ~39k from now. It starts to look a lot more reasonable the more you take into account the possibility of big Christmas sales, and while I think 4,000,000 is out of reach, 3,000,000 certainly isn't.

 

[gkryhewy]

1,250,000 by year end would be an average of ~78k a week from this week on, I think.

Assuming it manages a pair of 350k+ weeks in December like the DS did in 2005 - and that's a big if, even with the great lineup - you'd be looking at an average per week of ~39k from now. It starts to look a lot more reasonable the more you take into account the possibility of big Christmas sales, and while I think 4,000,000 is out of reach, 3,000,000 certainly isn't.

I meant that 3M is ridiculously low.

 

[BishopLamont]

1,250,000 by year end would be an average of ~78k a week from this week on, I think.

Assuming it manages a pair of 350k+ weeks in December like the DS did in 2005 - and that's a big if, even with the great lineup - you'd be looking at an average per week of ~39k from now. It starts to look a lot more reasonable the more you take into account the possibility of big Christmas sales, and while I think 4,000,000 is out of reach, 3,000,000 certainly isn't.

Yeah it probably wont hit 4M, but 3M is the bare minimum.

 

[gkryhewy]

3.75M is probably about right, but 4M is certainly possible. The one nice thing about 3DS sales potential is that there shouldn't be shortages... plenty of units in those warehouses :/

 

[Yoshichan]

I bought the PS2 back in the days specifically for ICO but it sold rather poorly during its first weeks of sales in Japan. I don't see it suddenly sell several tens of thousands of copies in a couple of days. Shadow of the Colosseus on the other hand did have a frank success and was less overlooked. I except it to sell moar.

Yeah it sold terribly but one can not avoid the fact that ICO has gained a lot of hype with the years. How much did the re-release sell in Japan?

 

[Stumpokapow]

Yeah it sold terribly but one can not avoid the fact that ICO has gained a lot of hype with the years. How much did the re-release sell in Japan?

original release 93k
re-release 91k

 

[Kenka]

Please someone correct me if I am wrong:

I thought we were talking 4 million LTD, not YTD. And the 3DS is at 1.7 mil, selling 2.3 mil till the end of the year isn't impossible.

You're wrong at week 36 we're at 1.7 mil 3DS sold.

I was really wrong. Please wash your eyes if you read the former content of this post.

 

[Yoshichan]

original release 93k
re-release 91k

So basically, the exact same people who bought the original one bought the re-release so that they wouldn't have to use the disc.

 

[Alrus]

Please someone correct me if I am wrong:

You're wrong at week 36 we're at 1.7 mil 3DS sold.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I thought we were talking 4 million LTD, not YTD. And the 3DS is at 1.7 mil, selling 2.3 mil till the end of the year isn't impossible.

For 3DS, it's the same thing. Dunno why he started at week 36 (iere-pricedrop) though?

edit: ack, missed yr edit! :3

2.3m by year's end should be effortless. The sysyem's already settled into a baseline above 45k weekly, and it even has a couple decent drivers in October & November (Mario 3D Land, Pink color) before it eats the market in December (MH3G, Mario Kart, Inazuma Go, etc)

 

[Alrus]

For 3DS, it's the same thing. Dunno why he started at week 36 (iere-pricedrop) though?

Yep noticed it after I posted but you caught me before I edited >.<

 

[Kenka]

Quick, we need hardware sales for week 37 - 52 for DS in 2005 and 2006 and respective YTD.

 

[Road]

DS 2005 YTD sales: http://garaph.info/linecompare.php/.../sys-1/DS/date-1/2005-01-03/sfd-1/2005-01-03/ (weekly numbers)

 

[walking fiend]

Quick, we need hardware sales for week 37 - 52 for DS in 2005 and 2006 and respective YTD.

in one of the weeks DS sold like 600K, it is not impossible for 3DS to sell 1.3M in few weeks, and 2.3M in like 12 weeks, of course if DS is anything to go by and portable gaming hasn't really been affected much by smartphones. Think we will see very soon.

 

[Chris1964]

3The one nice thing about 3DS sales potential is that there shouldn't be shortages... plenty of units in those warehouses :/

Japan =/= west

 

[Mpl90]

Quick, we need hardware sales for week 37 - 52 for DS in 2005 and 2006 and respective YTD.

Famitsu numbers.

Weeks 37 - 52 in 2005


62.641
62.772
64.655
41.412
46.609
48.724
48.348
46.246
53.948
56.098
67.232
162.398
155.494
295.701
381.776
614.748

YTD - 4.002.871

Units sold between weeks 37 - 52: 2.208.802

Significant releases between weeks 37 - 52


Tamagotchi Connection: Corner Shop (Bandai) - 107.499 / 1.110.046 / 9,68% (Week 38)
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney (Capcom) - 50.469 / 117.784 / 42,85% (Week 38)
Pokemon Puzzle (Pokemon Co.) - 46.910 / 293.807 / 15,97% (Week 43)
Super Princess Peach (Nintendo) - 29.164 / 196.641 / 14,83% (Week 43)
Clubhouse Games (Nintendo) - 64.994 / 630.777 / 10,30% (Week 45)
Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Blue Rescue Team (Pokemon Co.) - 134.776 / 761.617 / 17,70% (Week 47)
Animal Crossing: Wild World (Nintendo) - 335.425 / 5.157.481 / 6,50%
(Week 48)
Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime (Square Enix) - 43.995 / 293.970 / 14,97% (Week 49)
Dragon Ball Z: Supersonic Warriors 2 (Bandai) - 42.280 / 313.505 / 13,49% (Week 49)
Mario Kart DS (Nintendo) - 224.411 / 3.709.271 / 6,05% (Week 50)



Weeks 38 - 53 in 2006 (yeah, it was an year with 53 weeks for Famitsu)


140.153
158.250
292.938
127.339
116.991
143.759
180.421
123.950
141.547
123.242
152.408
181.496
251.012
375.468
334.963
334.965

YTD - 8.862.969

Units sold between weeks 38 - 53: 3.178.902


Notable games released between weeks 38 - 53

Pokemon Diamond / Pearl (Pokemon Co.) - 1.586.360 / 5.793.340 / 27,38% (Week 40)
Kanji Test DS (Rocket Company) - 67.153 / 621.885 / 10,80% (Week 40)
Custom Robo: Arena (Nintendo) - 39.176 / 109.279 / 35,85% (Week 43)
General Knowledge Training (Nintendo) - 205.733 / 1.569.882 / 13,10% (Week 44)
Tales of the Tempest (Bandai Namco) - 83.298 / 205.541 / 40,53% (Week 44)
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Justice for All [Best Price!] (Capcom) - 22.428 / 226.059 / 9,92% (Week 44)
Kirby Squeak Squad (Nintendo) - 151.147 / 1.116.424 / 13,54% (Week 45)
World Soccer Winning Eleven DS (Konami) - 51.491 / 181.216 / 28,41% (Week 45)
Kanji Brain (IE Institute) - 30.570 / 590.275 / 5,18% (Week 46 - PS3 Debut)
Master of Illusion (Nintendo) - 23.463 / 277.815 / 8,45% (Week 47)
Oshare Majo Love & Berry: DS Collection (Sega) - 425.380 / 1.055.821 / 40,29% (Week 48)
Jump! Ultimate Stars (Nintendo) - 169.740 / 789.445 / 21,50% (Week 48)
1000 Healthy DS Recipes (Nintendo) - 44.298 / 444.448 / 9,97% (Week 50)
Shiren the Wanderer DS (Sega) - 79.932 / 195.052 / 40,98% (Week 51)
Mega Man Star Force: Pegasus / Leo / Dragon (Capcom) - 77.152 / 593.675 / 13,00% (Week 51)
IQ Supplie DS (Spike) - 61.496 / 258.476 / 23,79% (Week 52)
Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker (Square Enix) - 633.084 / 1.467.179 / 43,15% (Week 53)

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

This all depends on how much the vita cuts into Ninty's sales or not. whose to say it couldn't be a breakaway?

 

[Mpl90]

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201109/21050742.html

01./00. [WII] Dragon Quest 25th Anniversary: Famicom & Super Famicom Dragon Quest I-II-III <RPG> (Square Enix) {2011.09.15} (¥4.440)
02./01. [PS3] Tales of Xillia # <RPG> (Bandai Namco) {2011.09.08} (¥8.379)
03./02. [PS3] Resident Evil: Revival Selection <ADV> (Capcom) {2011.09.08} (¥4.490)

04./10. [WII] Wii Sports Resort <SPT> (Nintendo) {2009.06.25} (¥4.800)
05./07. [WII] Rhythm Heaven <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.07.21} (¥5.800)
06./05. [PS3] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 HD Ver. <ACT> (Capcom) {2011.08.25} (¥4.800)
07./09. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.06.16} (¥4.800)
08./03. [PSP] Grand Knights History <RPG> (Marvelous Entertainment) {2011.09.01} (¥5.229)
09./11. [NDS] Kirby Mass Attack <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.08.04} (¥3.800)
10./15. [PSP] Monster Hunter Diary: Pokapoka Felyne G <ETC> (Capcom) {2011.08.10} (¥3.990)

 

[C_H_T]

Top 10 Famitsu:
1. [WII] Dragon Quest Collection
2. [PS3] Tales of Xillia
3. [PS3] Resident Evil: Survival Selection
4. [WII] Wii Sports: Resort
5. [WII] Rhythm Heaven
6. [PS3] Monster Hunter Portable 3rd HD Ver.
7. [3DS] Zelda: Ocarina of Time
8. [PSP] Grand Knights History
9. [DS] Kirby Mass Attack
10. [PSP] Monster Hunter Diary: Pokapoka Felyne G

 

[Graphics Horse]

Wii Sports Resort at 4... Super slow week?

 

[Mpl90]

Wii Sports Resort at 4... Super slow week?

Or a boost caused by the fire of the Dragon

 

[C_H_T]

Wii Sports Resort at 4... Super slow week?

Biggest release this week is DQ Collection.

 

[Kenka]

Famitsu numbers.

Best post of the week on the internet.

Y 2005 seems like a pretty realistic estimate of forthcoming sales for 3DS this year. I assume we won't get a stunning spike like back in the days when Mario Kart DS and Animal Crossing launched in Dec '05 but all the other weeks numbers seem reachable for the 3DS.

If we take this week's numbers as a basis for week 38-47 and assume that week 52 will be more like 350'000 rather than 600'000 then we will have decent premises to forecast YTD sales for 3DS.

DS 2005 YTD sales: http://garaph.info/linecompare.php/.../sys-1/DS/date-1/2005-01-03/sfd-1/2005-01-03/ (weekly numbers)

Oh, nice use of SQL. I'll keep it in sight until we get this week's hardware numbers.

 

[frankie_baby]

Hardware numbers should be interesting this week, will Wii be over 30k, will 3ds be over 60k

 

[Graphics Horse]

Biggest release this week is DQ Collection.

Somehow I missed this :lol
It's hard to tell how things went with only one new entry and games like Resistance dropping out.