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Media Create Sales: Week 5, 2012 (Jan 30 - Feb 05)

Sadist

Member
[3DS] New Love Plus 111.111
[PS3] Binary Domain 83.200
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy 76.500
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special 24.700
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV 12.300
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV 4.100
 

Road

Member
Actually just for fun and to just get going, I'll try predicting, without having any experience with sales-age, but I really interests me, so I'll start following the market closer no doubt.
It's not like we're winning or losing anything. I was thinking of posting COMGNET pts to compare so some people would have an idea, but I think that would help as much as it would get in the way.
 

Road

Member
What's life without a little risk?

Speaking which, I see lots of pretty high SW3Z predictions given Musou's been bombing on PSP the past 2 years.
I think your BD prediction is way crazier, actually.

And, yeah, I don't think people saw my warning about the bottom 3 games in the list, one of which is Samurai Warriors.
 
I think your BD prediction is way crazier, actually.

And, yeah, I don't think people saw my warning about the bottom 3 games in the list, one of which is Samurai Warriors.

lol, caught me pre-edit. Yeah, I think I screwed myself on BD. I was thinking Yazuka + COD = profit, but it'll probably be the reverse.
 

Road

Member
For reference, released last year:

[PSP] Dynasty Warriors 7 Special: 25,308.



lol, caught me pre-edit. Yeah, I think I screwed myself on BD. I was thinking Yazuka + COD = profit, but it'll probably be the reverse.
Binary Domain is tracking above Vanquish on COMGNET, but it's still way below the Yakuza games.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mmh, if you want some Comgnet goodness, I'll post it. Just the titles we are interested in ( this week, and One Piece Musou and Tales of the Braves ), without Google Translate goodness

[PS3] Binary Domain - 92pt
[PS3] Vanquish - 39pt

[3DS] New Love Plus - 50pt
[NDS] Love Plus + - 64pt
[NDS] Love Plus - 21pt

[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 35pt

[PSP] Tales of the Heroes: Twin Brave - 116pt
[PSP] Tales of Vs. - 278pt

[PS3] One Piece: Kaizoku Musou - 310pt
[PS3] Hokuto no Ken Musou - 208pt
 
Good for Resident Evil!
MonsterHunter 3G, Mario 3DS, and Mariokart 7 are doing great!
BomBa for SoulCaliber... Next week MC data will be interesting!

My noobie predictions:

[3DS] New Love Plus - 120.000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 90.000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 80.001
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 22.000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 9.561
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 3.654
 

Pachimari

Member
Mmh, if you want some Comgnet goodness, I'll post it. Just the titles we are interested in ( this week, and One Piece Musou and Tales of the Braves ), without Google Translate goodness

[PS3] Binary Domain - 92pt
[PS3] Vanquish - 39pt

[3DS] New Love Plus - 50pt
[NDS] Love Plus + - 64pt
[NDS] Love Plus - 21pt

[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 35pt

[PSP] Tales of the Heroes: Twin Brave - 116pt
[PSP] Tales of Vs. - 278pt

[PS3] One Piece: Kaizoku Musou - 310pt
[PS3] Hokuto no Ken Musou - 208pt

I probably seem like a real pain in the ass right now, but when I start getting into new stuff, I'm a dumb one. I need an explanation for these pt numbers. Let's say Love Plus, it's 64 percent up? If so, percent of what? If not, what's it about? :)
 

TyRaNtM

Neo Member
[3DS] New Love Plus 139,999
[PS3] Binary Domain 149,999
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy 89,999
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special 21,999
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV 16,999
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV 5,999
 

Orgen

Member
Prediction League February 13 - 19

[3DS] New Love Plus - 118.000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 127.000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 81.000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 22.000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 24.000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 13.000

No Tekken? I think it'll do better numbers than the last three ;D
And why did you mention Comgnet? fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!!! haha

@charlequin: Simply userbase (impossible for now to know if an ADV game caters more to 3DS users than Vita users or vice versa)
 
Re: Kyokugen Dasshutsu, I'm interested to hear people's explanations for choosing to rank 3DS over Vita or vice versa.

I'm guessing higher on Vita due to less competition and the system alreedy got a Chunsoft ADV to warm up (although it bombed). 3DS being higher wouldn't surprise me at all either though.
 
Re: Kyokugen Dasshutsu, I'm interested to hear people's explanations for choosing to rank 3DS over Vita or vice versa.

Imo, 3DS > Vita.
Bigger installed base, 999 was on DS, on Amazon both versions are now outside Top100, but Vita version is really low (around 300th position) while I see sometimes the 3DS one around 60-70th, which probably means nothing but that's all I have.
 

Jokeropia

Member
I probably seem like a real pain in the ass right now, but when I start getting into new stuff, I'm a dumb one. I need an explanation for these pt numbers. Let's say Love Plus, it's 64 percent up? If so, percent of what? If not, what's it about? :)
Comgnet is a (relatively small) retail chain. 64pt literally means that there are 64 pre-orders of the game across their stores.
 

Khrno

Member
The fairy tail that Sony used the magic stick and gave life back to PSP in Japan sounds good every time it's posted but it remains a fairy tail.

obn24.jpg
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Predictions

[3DS] New Love Plus - 123.456
[PS3] Binary Domain - 78.901
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 65.432
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 12.345
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 8.765
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 4.321
 
Random crapshoot predictions past New Love + and Binary Domain.

[3DS] New Love Plus - 125,000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 90,000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 70,000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 28,000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 14,500
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 6,500 (difference entirely due to userbase)
 

Nekki

Member
Whoa, first post!!! Having waited around 7 months to be able to post (and missing the most interesting part of the year to discuss, to boot) makes it feel like an achievement to be able to post finally.

This week seems pretty slow, and SW is low overall, but we must recognize that RE:R is holding out nicely.

On another front, to what degree is Vita HW/SW failing?

In the HW department, it seems to be doing quite bad, with games giving it a minimal boost. Is the system considered a flop in sales-age? How bad(or not) is it?

If the Vita mantained this baseline one year from now -or let's be a bit more generous, stabilized at 20k- with the occassional spike when a more wide-appealing game is released... would it be considered a very unhealthy environment for the platform?

How much does the vita need to improve its performance to be called a healthy (not good, nor great) platform that can be sustained without sony bleeding money?

Speaking of SW, i notice a lot of the "bigger" or more "appealing" vita games have a high sellthrough. I would think this is actually quite nice, as shown with Ragnarok this week (and hopefully with Gravity Daze next), but then again the total first shipment for the game is usually quite low... so i don't know if we can call it good or not... maybe stable?

3DS seems to be doing fine, so it's not as fun to discuss about it for me, but i hope the good keeps on rolling :D

Mind that these are all enquiries, i hope they don't come across as me coming out and stating my doubts as facts. I just hope to have a good time and learn some things which would be helpful when discussing further.
 

Yeshua

Member
[3DS] New Love Plus - 135.000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 80.000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 50.000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 14.000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 9.000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 3.000
 
On another front, to what degree is Vita HW/SW failing?

In the HW department, it seems to be doing quite bad, with games giving it a minimal boost. Is the system considered a flop in sales-age? How bad(or not) is it?
Decent first week, pretty awful after that. However, that first week makes enough difference that it's still well above where the bigger flops like GameCube and PS3 were a few months in.
If the Vita mantained this baseline one year from now -or let's be a bit more generous, stabilized at 20k- with the occassional spike when a more wide-appealing game is released... would it be considered a very unhealthy environment for the platform?
Yeah. PSP had a similar slow first year, but it had only given DS a one week head start. What you're talking about here would be a diiistant situation like GameCube or PS3's first few years.
How much does the vita need to improve its performance to be called a healthy (not good, nor great) platform that can be sustained without sony bleeding money?
Hard to say, without knowing things like what the bleeding is like as is, game budgets, publisher expectations.
 

Dalthien

Member
If the Vita mantained this baseline one year from now -or let's be a bit more generous, stabilized at 20k- with the occassional spike when a more wide-appealing game is released... would it be considered a very unhealthy environment for the platform?

Welcome.

IMO, Vita can't spend the year stuck in the 15-20k range. Dipping to 20k per week in the slow periods of the year is fine for a system in the middle to late stages of its life, where it has already built up a nice userbase and a strong software ecosystem.

But if the Vita spends the majority of its first year hovering in that 15-20k range each week, that would be pretty horrible. Even with a 500k December coming up (which would be VERY generous if the system has been in the 15-20k range all year), that would still leave it with a userbase under 2 million after 2 holiday seasons on the market. If that's how this year plays out, then Vita is probably looking at PS3-type numbers as a best-case scenario over its life, and quite possibly even worse than PS3-type numbers. I can't imagine that's what Sony had in mind for Vita.

Sony will have to find something (price drop, massive release of new colors and bundles, break-out must-have piece of software) to boost sales as the year goes along (much as Nintendo had to do for 3DS). If Vita is really still below 2 million after its 2nd set of holidays, then yeah - I would pretty much be writing off any chance of it being a long-term successful platform.

Speaking of SW, i notice a lot of the "bigger" or more "appealing" vita games have a high sellthrough. I would think this is actually quite nice, as shown with Ragnarok this week (and hopefully with Gravity Daze next), but then again the total first shipment for the game is usually quite low... so i don't know if we can call it good or not... maybe stable?

Generally speaking (it obviously varies depending on the actual piece of software), first week sell-through of 70-85% means retailers got it just about right. They're not sitting on an abundance of stock, but there is still supply out there for people that want to buy the game. And in that case, that means retailers will likely order a similar quantity for the next game that seems to fall in line with that game that they just purchased. Anything north of 90% means retailers under-purchased.

But retailer orders have very little to do with whether the game is a success or not for the publisher. Retailers may only order 50k of a game, and sell through 80% first week. That doesn't mean it was a success for the publisher though. The publisher may have set the budget for the game with the expectation of selling 200k. So even though the first-week sell-through percentage was strong, the game could still fall well below what the publisher was expecting.
 
[3DS] New Love Plus - 117,000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 66,000
[3DS] Theatryhthm Final Fantasy - 45,000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 35,000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 9,000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 5,000
 

LOCK

Member
[3DS] New Love Plus - 135000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 50000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 60000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 15000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 10000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 3000
 

donny2112

Member
If people think we should exclude one game or more, then let me know.

It would probably be more useful to limit predictions to games expected to do 50K or more. With low-selling games, it is incredibly easy to overshoot by a small amount in absolute terms (e.g. 20K) but a huge amount in relative terms (e.g. +150%). Learned that in the NPD software prediction threads, so those started trying to focus just on games likely to make the Top 5/10 for the month (back when we could actually do them). With weekly predictions, predicting anything that's unlikely to even hit 50K is asking for really high relative misses.

My two cents, anyway.

[3DS] New Love Plus - 115K

No real idea on the others.
 

Road

Member
It would probably be more useful to limit predictions to games expected to do 50K or more. With low-selling games, it is incredibly easy to overshoot by a small amount in absolute terms (e.g. 20K) but a huge amount in relative terms (e.g. +150%). Learned that in the NPD software prediction threads, so those started trying to focus just on games likely to make the Top 5/10 for the month (back when we could actually do them). With weekly predictions, predicting anything that's unlikely to even hit 50K is asking for really high relative misses.

My two cents, anyway.

[3DS] New Love Plus - 115K

No real idea on the others.
Kurosaki Ichigo also mentioned it, and it happened last time with Gundam. I wondered about making the ADV game a separate result even.

I don't know. haha
 
[3DS] New Love Plus - 230000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 70000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 80000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 22000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 23000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 4000
 

Pachimari

Member
But will it sell more than 10k?

Easily. =p

I really hope and believe they are buying Tekken, especially as this one seem to be easier to get into compared to the recent Tekken 6 and Tekken Tag Tournament 2 - and the Tekken scene badly needs new players and players who can compete with the hardcore.
 

Cygnus X-1

Member
My predictions:

[3DS] New Love Plus - 100.000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 80.000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 60.000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 18.000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 10.000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 4.000
 

DCharlie

Banned
[3DS] New Love Plus 102000
[PS3] Binary Domain 46000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy 42000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special 15000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV 10000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV 12000
 

angelfly

Member
Yeah, but if Google Translation isn't failing to me, Sinobi says the first shipment went sold out, and the second one will be in late February.

Yeah I see it. I had only read the top portion where he describes the game. Good to see that the demos worked well for SE. Hopefully others take note.
 
Predictions:
[3DS] New Love Plus - 125,000
[PS3] Binary Domain - 90,000
[3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - 65,000
[PSP] Samurai Warriors 3 Z Special - 18,000
[3DS] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 13,000
[PSV] Kyokugen Dasshutsu ADV - 2,000
 

Orgen

Member
But will it sell more than 10k?

Yes, and more than 20k too...

..

.

I have no idea jajaja (I'm an optimist by nature) And I see what donny says so next time it'll be better if we only predict games than can sell more than 50k but now it's too late ;P
 
Guys can you tell me how 3DS was selling after launch? I know of the massive price cut in July, but what were the numbers? Sub-20K before the good games started rolling in?
 
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