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[duckroll]

Sure, i was just wondering about local play in specific, if that in itself will bring millions of more people into the game.

Millions more... in Japan?

 

[noobie]

First Day Sell-through {2017.02.09}

[3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 - Professional <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥5.250) - 40%

[PS4] Nioh <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.800) - 60% (pre-orders were almost non-existent, but now the game is selling better than expected)

[PS4] Yonmegami Online: Cyber Dimension Neptune # <RPG> (Compile Heart) (¥7.200) - 80%

Hopefully Nioh will be higher then YSO estimates.

 

[test_account]

Millions more... in Japan?

Thats what Jpop was implying, Splatoon 2 going to blow up like Monster Hunter because of added local play, and PSP MH games sold millions more than the PS2 games.

 

[duckroll]

Thats what Jpop was implying, Splatoon 2 going to blow up like Monster Hunter because of added local play, and PSP MH games sold millions more than the PS2 games.

I think Smash is a better comparison...

 

[Branduil]

Speaking of Smash Bros and Splatoon, I'm starting to suspect Smash Bros. for the Switch will actual be a true sequel like Splatoon 2, instead of just a port. I'm also thinking it will probably be a 2018 game.

 

[ZSaberLink]

I think Smash is a better comparison...

So like 2.5M LTD for Splatoon 2? Seems reasonable

 

[Oregano]

I think the potential for Splatoon to explode in popularity is there but it's not a definite.

 

[duckroll]

So like 2.5M LTD for Splatoon 2? Seems reasonable

More like, Smash went from a 2 million ish title on Wii to a 3 million ish title on 3DS+WiiU. The actual increase in people buying it on 3DS alone was marginal. If the portable and console version of the game was the same, it probably wouldn't have sold that much either. So the growth is less than a million. For Splatoon I think there's still room to go for the franchise, so something like 2 million is not impossible if the demand is there. I just wouldn't expect it to be the next MHP.

 

[noshten]

I thought MCGAF is the one community that won't be underestimating Splatoon, but I guess I was wrong. Just don't allow yourself to appear on a post like this in 6 months.

 

[duckroll]

I thought MCGAF is the one community that won't be underestimating Splatoon, but I guess I was wrong. Just don't allow yourself to appear on a post like this in 6 months.

Where are the posts where people here are saying it will bomb or sell 30k?

 

[Chris1964]

Splatoon final LTD will be closer to 2m than 1,5m. Splatoon 2 selling only 2m, coming out at the beginning of life of Switch, shows stabilitty not growth.

 

[DrWong]

Splatoon final LTD will be closer to 2m than 1,5m. Splatoon 2 selling only 2m, coming out at the beginning of life of Switch, shows stabilitty not growth.

Yep.

I believe it'll top Splatoon current ltd in 2017 but I'm expecting - if the Switch doesn't bomb - a +3M ltd after a few years in the market, price cut, bundles etc...

 

[noshten]

Where are the posts where people here are saying it will bomb or sell 30k?

I mean if a new Pokemon sells 1.5 million on a handheld in Japan in it's first year - I'd call it a bomb. It's all about expectations anything below 2 million for Splatoon by the end of 2017 is disappointing while 2 million by the end of 2017 is actually an underwhelming figure.

I know a lot of people are saying that they don't expect such high adoption rates but do you think that the 1 million or so people that bought a Wii U in Japan just to play Splatoon aren't going to be the early adopters of the Switch? How about those that wanted Splatoon but didn't want a console to gather dust at home while they are mainly playing a handheld/mobile device. Than we have a bunch of kids with 3DS whose friends are going to get a Switch and the peer-pressure is going to be too much and what are kids into these days - squids.
Switch's launch in Japan is entirely geared towards Splatoon 2 taking off - they've been marketing the game and organizing huge tournaments for two years. With the local on the go game play, with the spectator and eSport focus this is going to be a game that keeps on selling for a considerable amount of time. The way its rolled out with constant updates and new maps/gear/weapons is entirely focused around building hype within the community constantly and keeping people engaged in much the same way a lot of companies tackle gaming as a service.

 

[test_account]

No one knows how much untapped potential Splatoon has. Its basically just a coin toss. The idea that millions of people didnt get Splatoon due to the WiiU is certainly possible, we've seen that before (if not millions, at least noticeable increases). We have also seen that bringing games to more people doesnt necessarily brings in tons of more sales.

 

[Nyoro SF]

I only predicted for fun, I didn't know I had joined a war.... lol

EDIT: I'm just a bit cold on games that essentially look like (or actually are) re-releases with improvements.

 

[KHlover]

I only predicted for fun, I didn't know I had joined a war.... lol

EDIT: I'm just a bit cold on games that essentially look like (or actually are) re-releases with improvements.

Well Splatoon is a Shooter. What more than new campaign, new weapons, new accessoires, new abilities, new maps and new movement options could you possibly want/expect in a sequel?

 

[Jpop]

I only predicted for fun, I didn't know I had joined a war.... lol

EDIT: I'm just a bit cold on games that essentially look like (or actually are) re-releases with improvements.

Okay.

I guess MK8 is a re-release of the original game.

Same with Smash 4, no different than the original.

 

[Aostia]

I am still amazed at how many people are predicting Switch first year as a true actual 3ds successor first year
I know the potential is there but to me their will to still push the 3ds as their actual portable will huRte first year switch sales a lot

 

[Geg]

Splatoon final LTD will be closer to 2m than 1,5m.

I don't really see that happening unless there's another explosion in sales for some reason. It's not even above 1.5 million in Japan yet is it?

 

[Jpop]

I don't really see that happening unless there's another explosion in sales for some reason. It's not even above 1.5 million in Japan yet is it?

A sequel to the most successful new IP in Japan on a system that is going to sell much more than the Wii U and you don't expect growth?

I'll quote this post in a couple of years when Splatoon 2s LTD is 3m+.

 

[Geg]

A sequel to the most successful new IP in Japan on a system that is going to sell much more than the Wii U and you don't expect growth?

I'll quote this post in a couple of years when Splatoon 2s LTD is 3m+.

The post I quoted was talking about Splatoon, not Splatoon 2. I don't see a big boom in sales for the original Splatoon, especially with the sequel around the corner.

 

[Mory Dunz]

No one knows how much untapped potential Splatoon has. Its basically just a coin toss. The idea that millions of people didnt get Splatoon due to the WiiU is certainly possible, we've seen that before (if not millions, at least noticeable increases). We have also seen that bringing games to more people doesnt necessarily brings in tons of more sales.

What might make splatoon's case interesting is that due to Wii U bombing it pretty much sold as best as it could. I don't know the % of active Wii U userbase in 2015, but Splatoon had about the highest ratio one could reasonably expect from 2015 onwards. Other games that were brought to more people probably didn't sell to that high a percentage of the OG console's userbase to begin with. (Unless there's an example I'm not thinking of.) That's why I lean to it having more potential than it staying level

 

[Nyoro SF]

Mates, I just made a comment about how I did the predictions for fun. I'm not a serious follower of the Japanese sales market (outside of closely watching the Valkyria series, and even I underestimated that one)... hence the cold, likely very inaccurate guesses.

 

[ZSaberLink]

I don't really see that happening unless there's another explosion in sales for some reason. It's not even above 1.5 million in Japan yet is it?

I think Chris was talking about Splatoon 2... right?

 

[Mory Dunz]

I think Chris was talking about Splatoon 2... right?

or Splatoon 1 with digital

 

[Aostia]

or Splatoon 1 with digital

He was talking about splatoon wiiu that with digital is already over 1.6 million in Japan

 

[Chris1964]

I don't really see that happening unless there's another explosion in sales for some reason. It's not even above 1.5 million in Japan yet is it?

Digital for Splatoon is 150-200k.

 

[Branduil]

I am still amazed at how many people are predicting Switch first year as a true actual 3ds successor first year
I know the potential is there but to me their will to still push the 3ds as their actual portable will huRte first year switch sales a lot

You realize the original DS still existed when 3DS came out? Not that I think the Switch will do 3DS numbers in its first year necessarily, but Nintendo continuing to sell its very popular previous gen handheld is nothing new.

 

[duckroll]

Mates, I just made a comment about how I did the predictions for fun. I'm not a serious follower of the Japanese sales market (outside of closely watching the Valkyria series, and even I underestimated that one)... hence the cold, likely very inaccurate guesses.

Media Create threads are always the front lines of the next major console skirmish!

 

[noshten]

Splatoon 2 trailer is about to reach another milestone 2 million views in Japan in a little over two weeks.

Nintendo Japan:
Splatoon - 2 mil
Mario - 1.4 mil
Zelda - 1.2 mil
Bowser Family Fun - 786k
MK 8 Deluxe - 689k
ARMs - 364k

Nintendo Japan:
Splatoon - 2.5 mil
Mario - 1.7 mil
Zelda - 1.3 mil
Bowser Family Fun - 873k
MK 8 Deluxe - 758k
ARMs - 678k
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 260k

Just a quick update as Splatoon 2 trailer has become the 5th most watched video on Nintendo Japan. It's also interesting how much views comparably ARMS has managed to drum up while things like MK8D barely gained views and Xenoblade 2 which has barely moved from 200k.
Now that Nintendo Japan has started showing more of Arms and considering they are likely going to have around 2 months of marketing post launch centering around Splatoon 2, MK8D and Arms it does appear that at least initially we might get a lot of answers about the online and lan capabilities of the device. This focus is borne out of the need for the marketing of the device to also be organic - showing your Arms/MK8D game and being able to share it with a friend in local or online play. Splatoon 2 is just the continuation of this form of marketing for the device.
In any case I'm glad I don't have to predict Arm's lifetime sales right now since it's something of an unknown quantity and it might turn out to be far more expansive than the initial reveal/demo. There is still probably 3 months until it's released and it much like Splatoon is gathering the same type of responses in the lead up to the release.

 

[zeromcd73]

http://gematsu.com/2017/02/yo-kai-watch-gerapo-rhythm-delayed-general-2017-japan

Level 5 ios game delay alert! Lady Layton-chan, no delay ganbare.

 

[Chris1964]

From sinobi:

Nintendo has increased (at least the initial) Switch shipment.

It appears to be much higher from what he thought.

 

[Spiral Insanity]

100k lifetime sales for Gravity Rush 2? Kill me.

 

[jonno394]

From sinobi:

Nintendo has increased (at least the initial) Switch shipment.

It appears to be much higher from what he thought.

Is the referring to the 2m number we've heard mentioned?

 

[Oregano]

Is the referring to the 2m number we've heard mentioned?

I imagine it's just talking about Japan. Retailer allocations seem to have been increased a bit here in the UK though.

 

[Chris1964]

Is the referring to the 2m number we've heard mentioned?

Japan

 

[thestopsign]

From sinobi:

Nintendo has increased (at least the initial) Switch shipment.

It appears to be much higher from what he thought.

It's starting.... we are all going to be sorry when it sells 10 million in Japan this year.

 

[Jarod McChicken]

[PS4] Nioh <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.800) - 60% (pre-orders were almost non-existent, but now the game is selling better than expected)

Yup, something happened at the last minute with this game, and not only in Japan, Abdiel (GAF resident US retailer) was also surprised in a good way. The game is performing very well on Amazon and streaming channels right now. Koei Tecmo might be getting its first original hit since... a long time, and I'm confident this is the birth of a new franchise, conveniently filling the spot Dark Souls is leaving empty.

 

[Oregano]

Yup, something happened at the last minute with this game, and not only in Japan, Abdiel (GAF resident US retailer) was also surprised in a good way. The game is performing very well on Amazon and streaming channels right now. Koei Tecmo might be getting its first original hit since... a long time, and I'm confident this is the birth of a new franchise, conveniently filling the spot Dark Souls is leaving empty.

It will be great news if it performs above expectations. KT hasn't really much got much else going for them nowadays.

 

[Takao]

Yup, something happened at the last minute with this game, and not only in Japan, Abdiel (GAF resident US retailer) was also surprised in a good way. The game is performing very well on Amazon and streaming channels right now. Koei Tecmo might be getting its first original hit since... a long time, and I'm confident this is the birth of a new franchise, conveniently filling the spot Dark Souls is leaving empty.

Toukiden really wasn't that long ago, though I guess I can't blame you for forgetting since they sabotaged that series.

 

[Chris1964]

Switch is a Friday release. Even if initial shipment doesn't "leak" before, Thursday first day sell-through from Media Create will give hints.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Yup, something happened at the last minute with this game, and not only in Japan, Abdiel (GAF resident US retailer) was also surprised in a good way. The game is performing very well on Amazon and streaming channels right now. Koei Tecmo might be getting its first original hit since... a long time, and I'm confident this is the birth of a new franchise, conveniently filling the spot Dark Souls is leaving empty.

Great reviews and word of mouth probably.

 

[jonno394]

I imagine it's just talking about Japan. Retailer allocations seem to have been increased a bit here in the UK though.

Japan

It's starting.... we are all going to be sorry when it sells 10 million in Japan this year.

Oooh, sounding good for Japan opening then I'd wager.

 

[Jon Carter]

Nintendo Japan:
Splatoon - 2.5 mil
Mario - 1.7 mil
Zelda - 1.3 mil
Bowser Family Fun - 873k
MK 8 Deluxe - 758k
ARMs - 678k
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 260k

Just a quick update as Splatoon 2 trailer has become the 5th most watched video on Nintendo Japan. It's also interesting how much views comparably ARMS has managed to drum up while things like MK8D barely gained views and Xenoblade 2 which has barely moved from 200k.
Now that Nintendo Japan has started showing more of Arms and considering they are likely going to have around 2 months of marketing post launch centering around Splatoon 2, MK8D and Arms it does appear that at least initially we might get a lot of answers about the online and lan capabilities of the device. This focus is borne out of the need for the marketing of the device to also be organic - showing your Arms/MK8D game and being able to share it with a friend in local or online play. Splatoon 2 is just the continuation of this form of marketing for the device.
In any case I'm glad I don't have to predict Arm's lifetime sales right now since it's something of an unknown quantity and it might turn out to be far more expansive than the initial reveal/demo. There is still probably 3 months until it's released and it much like Splatoon is gathering the same type of responses in the lead up to the release.

That growth is looking promising for ARMS.

 

[Chris1964]

Mario Kart and Arms will play big role until Splatoon 2 comes out. If Nintendo goes aggresive with first party games releasing them with 1-1,5 month difference from each other that would be a big difference at strategy comparing to 3DS and Wii U. With 3DS they tried to do something similar but the output was weak at sales potential for first months. With Wii U they failed hard.

[3DS] Nintendogs + Cats: French Bulldog / Shiba / Toy Poodle & New Friends <ETC> (Nintendo) {2011.02.26} (¥4.571)
[3DS] Pilotwings Resort <SLG> (Nintendo) {2011.04.14} (¥4.571)
[3DS] Steel Diver <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.05.12} (¥4.571)
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D <ADV> (Nintendo) {2011.06.16} (¥4.571)
[3DS] Star Fox 64 3D <STG> (Nintendo) {2011.07.14} (¥4.571)
[3DS] Pokemon Rumble Blast <ACT> (Pokemon Co.) {2011.08.11} (¥4.571)
[3DS] Flora and Fauna 3D Field Guide <HOB> (Nintendo) {2011.09.29} (¥3.620)
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.11.03} (¥4.571)
[3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.571)
[3DS] Spirit Camera: The Cursed Memoir <ADV> (Nintendo) {2012.01.12} (¥3.620)

[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} (¥5.700)
[WIU] Nintendo Land # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} (¥4.700)
[WIU] Game & Wario <ETC> (Nintendo) {2013.03.28} (¥4.700)
[WIU] New Super Luigi U <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.07.13} (¥3.700)
[WIU] Pikmin 3 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.07.13} (¥5.700)
[WIU] LEGO City Undercover <ADV> (Nintendo) {2013.07.25} (¥5.700)
[WIU] The Wonderful 101 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.08.24} (¥6.600)
[WIU] The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD <ADV> (Nintendo) {2013.09.26} (¥5.700)
[WIU] Rayman Legends <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.10.17} (¥5.700)
[WIU] Wii Party U # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} (¥4.700)
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.11.21} (¥5.700)
[WIU] Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games <SPT> (Nintendo) {2013.12.05} (¥5.700)

 

[hiska-kun]

Switch Comg's pre-orders:

Zelda Breath of the Wild - 226pt
1-2-Switch - 86pt
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 32pt (not a launch game)
Bomberman R - 16pt
Dragon Quest Heroes 1-2 - 16pt

Comparison with other launches:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228886730

 

[Jon Carter]

Bomberman and DQH 1-2 are lower than I'd like - well, at least Bomberman is - but the rest is doing great.

Mario Kart and Arms will play big role until Splatoon 2 comes out. If Nintendo goes aggresive with first party games releasing them with 1-1,5 month difference from each other that would be a big difference at strategy comparing to 3DS and Wii U. With 3DS they tried to do something similar but the output was weak at sales potential for first months. With Wii U they failed hard.

[3DS] Nintendogs + Cats: French Bulldog / Shiba / Toy Poodle & New Friends <ETC> (Nintendo) {2011.02.26} (¥4.571)
[3DS] Pilotwings Resort <SLG> (Nintendo) {2011.04.14} (¥4.571)
[3DS] Steel Diver <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.05.12} (¥4.571)
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D <ADV> (Nintendo) {2011.06.16} (¥4.571)
[3DS] Star Fox 64 3D <STG> (Nintendo) {2011.07.14} (¥4.571)
[3DS] Pokemon Rumble Blast <ACT> (Pokemon Co.) {2011.08.11} (¥4.571)
[3DS] Flora and Fauna 3D Field Guide <HOB> (Nintendo) {2011.09.29} (¥3.620)
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2011.11.03} (¥4.571)
[3DS] Mario Kart 7 <RCE> (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} (¥4.571)
[3DS] Spirit Camera: The Cursed Memoir <ADV> (Nintendo) {2012.01.12} (¥3.620)

[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} (¥5.700)
[WIU] Nintendo Land # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} (¥4.700)
[WIU] Game & Wario <ETC> (Nintendo) {2013.03.28} (¥4.700)
[WIU] New Super Luigi U <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.07.13} (¥3.700)
[WIU] Pikmin 3 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.07.13} (¥5.700)
[WIU] LEGO City Undercover <ADV> (Nintendo) {2013.07.25} (¥5.700)
[WIU] The Wonderful 101 <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.08.24} (¥6.600)
[WIU] The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD <ADV> (Nintendo) {2013.09.26} (¥5.700)
[WIU] Rayman Legends <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.10.17} (¥5.700)
[WIU] Wii Party U # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} (¥4.700)
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World <ACT> (Nintendo) {2013.11.21} (¥5.700)
[WIU] Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Olympic Winter Games <SPT> (Nintendo) {2013.12.05} (¥5.700)

I had no idea Pilotwings and Steel Diver weren't launch games in Japan. Those are some pretty terrible titles to release at any point other than launch.

 

[Chris1964]

With that kind of output from Nintendo it's not unexpected 3DS struggled at its first months and Wii U struggled forever. With 3DS, coming after a strong year for DS, sales of first weeks showed the potential was there but strong software was absent until holidays. With Wii U everything was wrong.

 

[Sage00]

From sinobi:

Nintendo has increased (at least the initial) Switch shipment.

It appears to be much higher from what he thought.

So many retailers are pushing switch pre orders again. People standing outside with signs etc.

 

[jonno394]

The fact it took 7 months for a legit Nintendo game to appear post launch for Wii U (i'm not including Wario Ware because it's a mini game collection/creator) really does show how poorly prepared they were for it. They had a decent spell over the closing 4 months of 2013. Taking 9 months on the 3DS for the first big budget non-remake Nintendo tile to appear is also awful. Nintendo will hopefully have 2 new BIG titles within 4-5 months for Switch (Arms and Splatoon 2) so things already look better. Splatoon 2 will likely sell extremely well out of the gate and move a lot of hardware, it's just what happens after Splatoon 2 that matters. Whats going to fill the post "Summer" period? Hopefully E3 bring a few surprises, but if not we are left with:

1) Fire Emblem Musou in August/September. Now, Zelda Musou did close to 60k in it's opening week, but with Fire Emblem Heroes and recent 3DS titles doing really well, I wonder if FEW will be able to do somewhat better than this?

2) Super Mario Odyssey in November time? Nintendo have got to be hoping this gets sales closer to 3D Lands opening week rather than what 3D world managed. It took the latter about 4/5 weeks to move what the former did in 1 week and only managed about 50% of 3D Lands LTD sales if that.

3) Xenoblade Chronicles 2 around December maybe, if it gets out. Neither Xenoblades set the sales charts on fire in Japan, so not sure this will have a big effect on Switch sales, but at least it fills out the Switches available titles in first 9 months.

3 new titles over potentially 5 months. Switch first 9-10 months is already better than the same period of time for the 3DS and Wii U imo. If Nintendo can manage to get output for year 2 on the level of output they have had for year 1, i've got high hopes!