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[Mileena]

Wii U is competing with everything. Since there is no clear distinction between console and handheld anymore the 3DS is probably stealing a lot of sales Wii U could potentially have.

So when PS4 sells poorly we can always use the excuse that 3DS is stealing its sales. Good to know

 

[Sandfox]

The market is either dead or seems wide open for someone to do well besides the 3DS. Either Nintendo will recover and and do well with the Wii U this fall, Sony will have strong launch and good momentum, or both, but I just can't see the market staying completely dead outside of the 3DS for a long time.

I don't see Sony having a strong launch unless they launch with Yakuza or soemthing. I just can't see them having anything to make it attractive for a Japanese audience day one.

 

[John Harker]

KH3D is pretty likely by now (650k west + ~300k Japan by last fall iirc). KIU is a maybe, but we won't know until Nintendo's annual report to see if it's added to the 3DS million sellers list.

KH is closer to 545k in west

 

[metalslimer]

So when PS4 sells poorly we can always use the excuse that 3DS is stealing its sales. Good to know

Sure. It doesn't excuse how terrible it's selling, but that's probably a big contributor. And yes when the PS4 bombs at launch it'll be because the 3DS has become dominant over the market and many 3rd party games that could maybe be on Wii u or even PS4 will be on 3DS. But I have feeling you were probably attempting sarcasm. But if you want try and actually get in on the conversation, do you think that handhelds are not in competition with consoles in Japan because that's what the original conversation was about.

 

[DragonSworne]

People are predicting that PS4 will have a successful Japanese launch?

 

[Mileena]

Sure. It doesn't excuse how terrible it's selling, but that's probably a big contributor. And yes when the PS4 bombs at launch it'll be because the 3DS has become dominant over the market and many 3rd party games that could maybe be on Wii u or even PS4 will be on 3DS. But I have feeling you were probably attempting sarcasm.

Not saying you're wrong but it sounds kinda ridiculous. Might as well not even bother to launch consoles in Japan if all they care about is handheld. I'm glad that where I live there's a huge distinction between consoles and handhelds, that's all I'll say.

 

[Gravijah]

People are predicting that PS4 will have a successful Japanese launch?

Launch? Sure. Longterm is murkier.

 

[guek]

So when PS4 sells poorly we can always use the excuse that 3DS is stealing its sales. Good to know

Well its true. People only have so much money to spend on gaming.

 

[bigtroyjon]

PSP and Vita sales continue to get worse compared to last year as the weeks go by. I'm interested to see if the price cut actually increases Sony's handheld sales compared to last year or if it just changes the ratio between the two. I'm expecting them to still be down yoy after the price cut, but with Vita's ratio doubling.

PSP+PSV(2012 YTD)=312,117
PSP+PSV(2013 YTD)=223,513(-28.4%)

Looking ahead to week 8, PSP+PSV did 27,114 in 2012.

3DS(2012 YTD)=744,479
3DS(2013 YTD)=832,247(+11.8%)

Looking ahead to week 8, 3DS did 76,322 in 2012.

All Handhelds(2012 YTD)=1,056,596
All Handhelds(2013 YTD)=1,055,760(0%)

 

[metalslimer]

Not saying you're wrong but it sounds kinda ridiculous. Might as well not even bother to launch consoles in Japan if all they care about is handheld. I'm glad that where I live there's a huge distinction between consoles and handhelds, that's all I'll say.

No there should be a market for consoles. And with Vita pretty much halfway into the grave, there should be market space for some other system. There is no room for a console with a completely barren lineup or a console that's way too expensive.

PSP and Vita sales continue to get worse compared to last year as the weeks go by. I'm interested to see if the price cut actually increases Sony's handheld sales compared to last year or if it just changes the ratio between the two. I'm expecting them to still be down yoy after the price cut, but with Vita's ratio doubling.

PSP doing what it is because Vita has no BC, not because of Vita's price. The 3DS immediately killed the DS even at 25k yen.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Free 3DS in all Wii U's.

BAM. Hire me, Nintendo.

April 27, 2013
NCL Financial Briefing
Iwata: I'm sorry to announce we lost 50 billion yen this quarter.

 

[Exterminieren]

I didn't realise the next Layton instalment was out next week.

Are we expecting decent things for this? I realise Layton DS figures are almost certainly out of reach, but it's being billed as the series conclusion. I'd expect it to at least outdo Miracle Mask and Layton x Phoenix Wright.

 

[majik13]

man, only if Nintendo could have had a decently big release at this time. How different would things be for the system? Crazy to think that pushing back a game or 2 could be so detrimental to the system.

Not declaring doom, and not ignoring other factors.

 

[Baconsammy]

So at about an average of 10-12k a week in the US and Japan, and essentially dead in Europe, Nintendo's got no shot of hitting that revised 4 million sold before April number.

 

[randomkid]

KH is closer to 545k in west

Thanks for this, I wonder what Birth By Sleep's Western LTD ended up being, if this is right it was apparently at 500K after the first month?

 

[FreedomFighter]

I wonder how long they can keep banking on the same few IPs to pull them through.

They seriously need to create some new one's. Not like Wii Sports but IPs like Mario, Zelda etc that can be carried over from generation to generation and platform to platform.

Mario platformers, Mario Kart, Zelda, etc. carried them since the mid-80s, 8-bit gen. Now all of a sudden those IPs are gonna lose their effectiveness after being some of the most critically acclaimed, commercially viable titles in the entire market? Yeah. Right.

And stop putting qualifiers on what type of IPs Nintendo can create. Wii Sports is just as effective an IP as Mario and Zelda. It may not be for you personally, but it doesn't mean it doesn't suddenly count as an IP just because you're not interested.

 

[Mpl90]

Thanks for this, I wonder what Birth By Sleep's Western LTD ended up being, if this is right it was apparently at 500K after the first month?

That's the first shipment (KH3D had a first Western shipment of 650k) John is referring to actual units sold to customers.

 

[The Horror the horror]

April 27, 2013
NCL Financial Briefing
Iwata: I'm sorry to announce we lost 50 billion yen this quarter.

Now, let's not be dramatic.

 

[thestopsign]

I didn't realise the next Layton instalment was out next week.

Are we expecting decent things for this? I realise Layton DS figures are almost certainly out of reach, but it's being billed as the series conclusion. I'd expect it to at least outdo Miracle Mask and Layton x Phoenix Wright.

I think 500-600k overall should be expected.

 

[randomkid]

That's the first shipment (KH3D had a first Western shipment of 650k) John is referring to actual units sold to customers.

Ah makes sense. Wonder if KH3D will get another shipment, anecdotes and all but there were literally 20 copies on the rack at my Best Buy, I kept getting annoyed seeing them since I was trying to find Sticker Star heh.

 

[Alrus]

I think 500-600k overall should be expected.

That's too high imo, I expect number similar to Inazuma Eleven, or even a bit lower. So 350-400k.

 

[Deleted member 125677]

Oh my lawd, DQ VII over 1 million in 2 weeks? Did Animal Crossing get to 1 mill that fast?

It must be fun checking for street passes if you live in Tokyo these days.

 

[Shahadan]

I didn't realise the next Layton instalment was out next week.

Are we expecting decent things for this? I realise Layton DS figures are almost certainly out of reach, but it's being billed as the series conclusion. I'd expect it to at least outdo Miracle Mask and Layton x Phoenix Wright.

How many people actually want to play another Layton game after Miracle Mask?

 

[AzaK]

Man, the Wii U.

Those sales are too good for Nintendo after what they've done to that console.

Less Wii Street U, more account systems and actual games.

Their priorities are all up the whack.

 

[AniHawk]

i saw wii sales and thought GOD DAMN IWATA CANCEL THE WII U- oh.

i mean, beating the psp which has software with a console that has nothing is kinda impressive, i guess. in relative terms. i think ps4 will comparatively wipe the floor with wii u once it comes out though. if it doesn't, i think consoles on the whole are on their way out in a big way.

 

[ccbfan]

I actually don't think the Wii U is doing that bad in Japan.

US and Europe? The things bombing worse than the Vita at the same stage.

Japan? I think its performing OK.

The numbers may seem low but one had to adjust it to how big the Japanese console market right now.

The Japanese console market is selling like 100K - 120K a non holiday month.

U.S console market is like 600K-700K a non holiday month.

So the U.S console market is 5 - 6 time larger than Japan's.

Say the WiiU is doing 40-50K a month in Japan. adjusted to the U.S market that's 240K-300K a month. Thats not bad at all. Hell its pretty good.

 

[SolarPowered]

I'm also surprised that Nintendoland and NSMBU continue to chart. But I guess when you think about it, it makes sense. Their combined sales are almost exactly equal to Wii U weekly sales, leaving nothing for 3rd parties.

The Wii U is selling to the most "core" of the the hardcore Nintendo fans. It's not surprising that folks may not have the funds or will to pick anything else with their console purchase.

 

[Road]

Boring sales week. Next week should be better:

- Wii U potentially under 10k
- Vita potentially under 1k

 

[bigtroyjon]

I actually don't think the Wii U is doing that bad in Japan.

US and Europe? The things bombing worse than the Vita at the same stage.

Japan? I think its performing OK.

The numbers may seem low but one had to adjust it to how big the Japanese console market right now.

The Japanese console market is selling like 100K - 120K a non holiday month.

U.S console market is like 600K-700K a non holiday month.

So the U.S console market is 5 - 6 time larger than Japan's.

Say the WiiU is doing 40-50K a month in Japan. adjusted to the U.S market that's 240K-300K a month. Thats not bad at all. Hell its pretty good.

I agree with this and have always thought the Vita/Wii U comparisons aren't really valid. By the end of this year the 3DS will likely have already outsold the top console from last gen in less than 3 years. The second place handheld last gen outsold the top console by more than 50%.

Boring sales week. Next week should be better:

- Wii U potentially under 10k
- Vita potentially under 1k

Microsoft should have done a temporary price promotion for the week just to see 360>Vita.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Boring sales week. Next week should be better:

- Wii U potentially under 10k
- Vita potentially under 1k

Wii U gets a stay of execution. I hadn't realised the Vita price cut wasn't until the 28th.

 

[Allan Holdsworth]

I actually don't think the Wii U is doing that bad in Japan.

US and Europe? The things bombing worse than the Vita at the same stage.

Japan? I think its performing OK.

The numbers may seem low but one had to adjust it to how big the Japanese console market right now.

The Japanese console market is selling like 100K - 120K a non holiday month.

U.S console market is like 600K-700K a non holiday month.

So the U.S console market is 5 - 6 time larger than Japan's.

Say the WiiU is doing 40-50K a month in Japan. adjusted to the U.S market that's 240K-300K a month. Thats not bad at all. Hell its pretty good.

You can't separate the console/handheld markets like that in Japan. I agree though, but even a simple population comparison would tell you it is doing better in Japan.

 

[test_account]

No there should be a market for consoles. And with Vita pretty much halfway into the grave, there should be market space for some other system. There is no room for a console with a completely barren lineup or a console that's way too expensive.

I agree, i think there is definitelly interest for consoles in Japan as long as they offer something that people want. And if we add all the consoles sold in this console generation and compare it to the last generation, the total numbers of consoles isnt really that huge apart. There might be a bigger overlapping (people who bought both a PS3 and a Wii) in this generation however, but still.

 

[BengaBenga]

Getting repetitive I know, but I'll say again I think some of the Wii U doom is very premature.

Absolutely. Especially in Japan it will start selling when the big games are released.

 

[walking fiend]

i saw wii sales and thought GOD DAMN IWATA CANCEL THE WII U- oh.

i mean, beating the psp which has software with a console that has nothing is kinda impressive, i guess. in relative terms. i think ps4 will comparatively wipe the floor with wii u once it comes out though. if it doesn't, i think consoles on the whole are on their way out in a big way.

In Japan? The chances of that are almost Zero, unless it's being launched alongside Versus or something like that.

 

[AniHawk]

In Japan? The chances of that are almost Zero, unless it's being launched alongside Versus or something like that.

considering the wii u doesn't have the traditional franchises japanese go for outside of nintendo's usual stuff, the ps4 should get those games and the fanbase that follows.

 

[pieatorium]

considering the wii u doesn't have the traditional franchises japanese go for outside of nintendo's usual stuff, the ps4 should get those games and the fanbase that follows.

Most likely but it depends how quickly they move to PS4 though. I could see a few still hitting on PS3 for a while.

 

[AzaK]

Microsoft should have done a temporary price promotion for the week just to see 360>Vita.

You're thinking too small. They could possible best Wii U if they did it right!

 

[AranhaHunter]

Boring sales week. Next week should be better:

- Wii U potentially under 10k
- Vita potentially under 1k

What's the vita's lowest number ever and what was PS3 and 3DS' number before their big price cut and the week after?

I think the vita can probably do mid 20k the week of the price cut and then settle back down to 10k.

 

[metalslimer]

considering the wii u doesn't have the traditional franchises japanese go for outside of nintendo's usual stuff, the ps4 should get those games and the fanbase that follows.

Japan will probably stay on the PS3 for a very long time.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Back here on GAF after AGES. Is it just me, or is nowadays Nintendo surviving just of 3DS & Japan love story?

 

[walking fiend]

considering the wii u doesn't have the traditional franchises japanese go for outside of nintendo's usual stuff, the ps4 should get those games and the fanbase that follows.

The flaw in your argument, is that there aren't such franchises on home consoles to begin with. Beside FF, there's no multimillion seller on home consoles beside Nintendo exclusives [which now practically includes Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter as well]. close to Million sellers are MGS and RE.

Here's the list: http://garaph.info/softwaregroup.php?grid=S2101

There's only 1 PS3 million seller, while there are 14 Wii million seller, many multi-million sellers; and there are few games close to it through budget releases, etc. [MGS, RE, Tales series, One Piece]. And who knows, maybe even Versus, if not already moved completely to the next generation, be also ported to the Wii U as well.

Although I am sure replicating Wii ... series success is short of impossible with stuff like Nintendo Land, but even 4 million seller is better than the situation that PS3 was in. Particularly when you consider that most Japanese developers haven't made the technological advancement necessary to utilize even the PS3 hardware, let alone PS4 hardware.

 

[donny2112]

japanese video game market is in fact 3DS market.

During the DS heydays, the Japanese market rise and fall basically was the DS rise and fall. Good to see the 3DS taking up that mantle, then.

Its not farfetched, its pretty much a certainty.

No. Price drop is the most likely of those three. Mario Kart U and Super Mario 3DU will be shown for the first time at E3 this year. If either one of them makes it out this year, it'll be amazing. Saying it's a "certainty" that both will be out this year is an unrealistic expectation.

No Famitsu sales in first post?

Maybe Chris1964 is staging a Famitsu protest. Need superior tracker numbers in OP.

I will launch a question here (where the sales experts are )

What effect will have a ps4 launch with a "main" Final Fantasy game with it? I'm not saying it will be the case of course, but it will be interesting (and with main FF i'm sure you all know what title is). Altough FF games are a bit down currently. But a fight with this vs mario titles will be curious to see.

Was hoping SE would take FFXIIIVs to multi-platform. If SCE was able to keep it exclusive, though, it should provide a bigger initial boost than Mario did, for sure. Longterm? Depends on the other games, but it should start off a lot better, at least.

 

[Hero]

No Japanese developer is gonna jump on the PS4 train over the 3DS. If it's going to be console it'll be PS3 and probably Wii U.

 

[LOCK]

I wonder where the 3DS baseline is at now. If it continues to fall to around 60k, that would be disappointing.

 

[FearMyWrench]

----------------------------------------------
|    |   [B]AC: Wild World[/B]  |   [B]AC: New Leaf[/B]    | 
|    | [NDS] (2005/11/23)| [3DS] (2012/11/08)|
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Week|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|  1 |  335.425|  335.425|  721.786|  721.786|
|  2 |  142.869|  478.294|  315.317|1.037.103|  
|  3 |  116.965|  595.259|  237.823|1.274.926|  
|  4 |  192.571|  787.830|  118.898|1.393.824| 
|  5 |  381.927|1.169.757|  115.556|1.509.380|  
|  6 |  169.795|1.339.552|  213.329|1.722.709|  
|  7 |  152.339|1.491.891|  400.320|2.123.029|  
|  8 |   64.242|1.556.133|  163.948|2.286.977|  
|  9 |   89.892|1.646.025|  135.971|2.422.948| 
| 10 |   93.443|1.739.468|   86.926|2.509.874|  
| 11 |   69.401|1.808.869|   97.808|2.607.682|  
| 12 |   55.169|1.864.038|   83.226|2.690.908|  
| 13 |   53.594|1.917.632|   76.039|2.766.947| 
| 14 |   57.383|1.975.015|   90.652|2.857.599|  
| 15 |   88.709|2.063.724|   76.747|2.934.346|  
| 16 |   93.508|2.157.232|         |         |   
| 17 |   88.292|2.245.524|         |         |   
| 18 |  101.839|2.347.363|         |         |  
| 19 |   95.034|2.442.397|         |         |  
| 20 |   68.889|2.511.286|         |         |   
| 21 |   49.596|2.560.882|         |         |   
| 22 |   40.608|2.601.490|         |         |  
| 23 |        -|        -|         |         |  
| 24 |        -|2.713.688|         |         |  
| 25 |   30.887|2.744.575|         |         |  
| 26 |   31.802|2.776.377|         |         |  
| 27 |   36.245|2.812.622|         |         |  
| 28 |   30.319|2.842.941|         |         |   
| 29 |   29.343|2.872.284|         |         |  
| 30 |   29.525|2.901.809|         |         |  
| 31 |   24.808|2.926.617|         |         |   
| 32 |   23.200|2.949.817|         |         |  
| 33 |   20.480|2.970.297|         |         |   
| 34 |   17.968|2.988.265|         |         |   
| 35 |   25.361|3.013.626|         |         |   
| 36 |   21.083|3.034.709|         |         |   
| 37 |   21.501|3.056.210|         |         |  
| 38 |        -|        -|         |         | 
| 39 |        -|3.115.414|         |         |   
| 40 |   21.492|3.136.906|         |         |  
| 41 |   22.565|3.159.471|         |         |  
| 42 |   18.772|3.178.243|         |         |   
| 43 |   20.634|3.198.877|         |         |   
| 44 |   20.447|3.219.324|         |         |   
| 45 |   19.713|3.239.037|         |         |  
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|Year|   YTD   |   LTD   |   YTD   |   LTD   |
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|
|  1 |1.169.757|1.169.757|2.286.977|2.286.997|
|  2 |2.485.264|3.665.021|  647.369|2.934.346|
|  3 |  858.501|4.513.522|        -|        -|  
|  4 |  338.531|4.852.053|        -|        -|  
|  5 |  258.996|5.111.049|        -|        -| 
|  6 |   46.432|5.157.481|        -|        -|
|  7 |   37.181|5.194.662|        -|        -|        
|----|---------|---------|---------|---------|
| LTD|        -|5.194.662|        -|2.934.346|      
----------------------------------------------

Man, when you put it that way... Insane.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

No Japanese developer is gonna jump on the PS4 train over the 3DS. If it's going to be console it'll be PS3 and probably Wii U.

Not you so eager to get dragged. dfgdfgdfg

See you in a few hours.

 

[donny2112]

Myself, I would never declare that a Nintendo system is in deep ... until Mario Kart arrive and fail. Then I'd declare it to be in deep ....

Sort of what happened with Wii. Mario Kart Wii itself did fine, but when it failed to keep Wii hardware over 40K / week, some of us saw it as an indicator that Wii was in big trouble despite it still being a complete sellout in the U.S., at the time.

 

[metalslimer]

Ok, so it's probably premature to really speculate on what just came out of that direct. On one hand Sony showed more with Capcom's new game and basic insinutation that FF15 (it probably will end up being versus) will be PS4 which is bigger than what Nintendo has shown from JPN 3rd parties for years now. Also the 3rd party list looked nice. On the other hand, I still don't see a bunch of JPN publishers moving away from 3DS and PS3 to make PS4 games anytime soon. Overall Sony ended up showing even less than I anticipated.

 

[L Thammy]

The console will sell to the domestic audience once games that appeal to them appear. Not promises, games. Sony's lost a lot of its clout with the PS3 and the PSV. I can't imagine it will be any more complex.

Eventually the games will be there and the console will sell decently enough. Japanese companies will need to make PS4 games to sell in the West. Assuming no gross acts of incompetence, that should be inevitable.

However, of the games that have been shown now, how many will make an impact and how big will it be? Possibly Deep Down and Knack? It could easily have a difficult time at launch.

 

[grimshawish]

Its far too premature but that MT engine was damn impressive. Capcom could do good things.

Everything else seems meh for Japan. Very suprisiedat thr first party stuff; Sony needs to move on from some things.

Online stuff seems great though.