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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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  • Poll closed .
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Elios83

Member
Still no explanation how MS will close this deal with a CMA block when their own documents explicitly say they need approval from all 4 major markets to do so.

They won't close anything.
The current contract is expiring, they didn't get the required approvals from CMA and FTC.
The original contract is dead.

The whole thing has already dragged on way more than they wanted/expected, they seemed so delusional to think they would get widespread approvals without the investigations going into phase 2 and with no competitor complaining (who remembers the articles last year: FTC will approve the deal by the end of summer :messenger_tears_of_joy:).

Now both companies will have to decide what they want to do without posturing bluffs in July.
Activision can back out and collect the 3 billions. Or they can go into a legal limbo trying to fight against CMA and FTC for an other 1-2 years, super low chances to win against CMA anyway and their strategies for the future completely locked until it's over.
Because of the high risks involved if they go this route Activision will ask way more than the 95$/share and a much higher breakup fee to still be able to claim that the deal is in the interests of their shareholders and getting approval from them.
 

poppabk

Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Since we're in a lull waiting for info and the topic has descended into UK cuisine, I offer this up as "traditional food" from the north-east of the UK:
p25bPm8.jpg

(not a true Parmo as there is a salad present - far too healthy)

The "Parmo"

A colleague from the region introduced me to this, it's a rabbit-hole of madness with fan clubs, parmo-spotting, facebook groups, the works

With cooking instructions...

Yeah I would kill for a parmo from Central Park in Boro right now.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Jez Corden says microsoft will leave the UK and doesn't care about the fines from the CMA because they can overrule them
and the UK will reconsider because the country will crumble with no windows and no cybersecurity that microsoft gives them


So Microsoft's plan is to blackmail the UK and arm-twist into approving the ABK deal when their plan is to do more acquisitions in the future?

Morgan Freeman Good Luck GIF
 
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ToadMan

Member
People who think that Microsoft would pull out of the uk don't care about videogames or competition. It's all about making sony pay for some reason.

Yes. But as I mentioned elsewhere I believe that would actually hand Sony a major market both for now and for the future while also allowing a fertile market for new competitors to establish in.

I mean this would gift Sony an auto win in the UK - all those console and game sales to add to their already strong global position while Xbox retreats to be a US-only presence but irrelevant overseas. It’s exactly the situation they’ve (MS that is) been whining about these last few months.

It would be the end of Xbox as a brand, and leave MS as a bit player in the gaming sector going forward.

Be careful what they wish for as the saying goes.
 
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Elios83

Member
Jez Corden says microsoft will leave the UK and doesn't care about the fines from the CMA because they can overrule them
and the UK will reconsider because the country will crumble with no windows and no cybersecurity that microsoft gives them


Microsoft isn't even willing to lose the money from Windows/Office sales in Russia...:messenger_grinning_sweat:

Not to mention that such behaviour would turn them into a pariah company in the eyes of regulators for the future.
Some people are just out of their minds, both companies will go on regardless of this deal.
Both Spencer and Kotick have already claimed as much in recent interviews.
 
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Microsoft isn't even willing to lose the money from Windows/Office sales in Russia...:messenger_grinning_sweat:

Not to mention that such behaviour would turn them into a pariah company in the eyes of regulators for the future.
Some people are just out of their minds, both companies will go on regardless of this deal.
Both Spencer and Kotick have already claimed as much in recent interviews.

Microsoft has actually left the Russian Market, there'll be no Windows Update. They basically stopping selling their products in Russia. The Russians only option is to pirate Windows, making it more vulnerable.
 
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Elios83

Member
Microsoft has actually left the Russian Market, there'll be no Windows Update. They basically stopping selling their products in Russia. The Russians only option is to pirate Windows, making it more vulnerable.

They were even recently fined for sanctions violations...
 

I saw this part.

As to comply with sanctions imposed by Europe, the UK, and US, Intel and Microsoft are forbidden to sell any new technology within the state of Russia. This has made Intel and Microsoft block official software downloads.

Why are people using this as an example when the reasons behind it are sanctions imposed by several countries?

This isn't the same as what Microsoft is facing with the CMA block.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
I saw this part.



Why are people using this as an example when the reasons behind it are sanctions imposed by several countries?

This isn't the same as what Microsoft is facing with the CMA block.
Yes. They stopped selling new technologies because of EU sanctions -- which are still in place.

But Microsoft has resumed support in Russia. So they are doing the bare minimum they must do, only because of sanctions. The sanctions aren't regarding providing support, so they have resumed it.
 
Yes. They stopped selling new technologies because of EU sanctions -- which are still in place.

But Microsoft has resumed support in Russia. So they are doing the bare minimum they must do, only because of sanctions. The sanctions aren't regarding providing support, so they have resumed it.

Still people using it as example of Microsoft abandoning Russia because they wanted to are incorrect here. Which is what some are saying they will do with the UK to dodge the CMA.
 

ZehDon

Member
I see 2 options, either wait 10 years to make another deal like stipulated by the CMA or make a new deal that doesn't require CMA approval, but then risking huge fines by operating cloud gaming in the UK or get xcloud completely blocked in the UK + sales of Activision games.
It does seem to be the case.

In my opinion, in ten years, ABK won't be the same kind of accelerant that it is today for Microsoft's Xbox plans - Microsoft needs heavy hitters on Game Pass today, they can't wait 10 years. It's first party seems largely unable to deliver the mega hit games it needs to drive Game Pass at the speed they wants, hence these kinds of acquisitions. COD on Game Pass, especially when its USD$70.00 on PS5? That's a licence to print money via monthly subs. I suspect if this deal goes under, Microsoft will abandon trying to own COD altogether and look at other ways to get their heavy hitters sooner. I don't really know what that might look like - no one saw ABK being bought. In terms of Microsoft pulling some kind of business-legal 4D chess move to get around the CMA, I don't think it's likely. their deal with Activision names the CMA directly. That's in writing, so, I'm not sure how easy that is to work around - at glance I'd think they can't work around it. But the idea of Microsoft as a whole pulling out of the UK in a big way seems pretty laughable to me - I can't imagine the numbers working out at all.

I've said it before, but in my honest opinion, I think Microsoft win's their CMA appeal, and the CMA magically approves the deal at the 11th hour in a re-review. Not because Microsoft found some fatal flaw in the CMA's original review, but because behind the scenes the current UK Government - whose PM is vocally anti-regulation - fucking leans on the CMA's members to get them to change their minds because the Government wants big corporate money after Brexit and the CMA is fucking that up. CMA gets to look like a tough regulator, Microsoft gets its new toy, and the UK Government gets to keep big business happy. I'm happy to be wrong, of course.
 
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Goalus

Member
You already knew? Then why did you describe someone as “insecure” for asking how MS would skip around the CMA ruling?

And you may go ahead and answer this question for us all, now I’ve provided you with accurate information.
His choice of words makes it obvious:
Has that retard explained how the deal would still be a go even with the papers they signed saying they require the UK’a approval to close the deal?

He really should get Phil’s micro-penis out of his mouth.
These are the words of an anxious, triggered and insecure individual. It seems that we are now back at the point where I entered this discussion, so I'll excuse myself until new facts emerge.
 
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They were even recently fined for sanctions violations...
Provide source before making claims. You can look up companies that's currently active in Russia.

 

PaintTinJr

Member
The fact that you think it through to this much detail tells me that you are afraid that something unexpected might happen.
I would acknowledge that me still being apprehensive the deal could still pass isn't 0%, but comparatively I'm more afraid for you being removed from Gaf for continuing to astroturf in favour of a $2T company, either advocating for them to ignore the law or to politically corrupt the democracy of my home nation to help them foreclose in the console and cloud market with games you already get on your Xbox.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
That's not the point I was making, but okay.
Yes it is.

The politicians in the UK are asking a lot of questions, and while they don't want to to interfere with a private body's sovereignty, they're beginning to ask questions and certain government personalities have expressed a slight disappointment in the CMA's decision.

They're saying to the CMA director that perhaps she hasn't looked at "the big picture".
Below is the link for this meeting. A few sites reported on it, but it hasn't gotten much coverage. But that doesn't mean it's not important, it is.

There is no ‘they’. I watched the entire 1 hour clip when it went live.

There was only this guy, who’s being paid £2k per month by a lobbying firm on behalf of Microsoft.


Cut the shit.
 

GHG

Gold Member
Provide source before making claims. You can look up companies that's currently active in Russia.


Meme Reaction GIF


The source is in the post you quoted.

And if you want an additional one here you go:


Microsoft invites Russian companies to continue cooperation​

At the end of April 2023, it became known that Microsoft Corporation offers Russian representative offices of international companies and legal entities that have not been sanctioned to renew licenses for its software.
According to the Kommersant newspaper, about 1,000 organizations received letters with relevant requests or oral proposals from Microsoft. According to market participants, despite the current geopolitical situation, the Redmond corporation does not want to lose Russian customers. Therefore, the Microsoft does not close the legal entity in the Russian Federation and is trying to find opportunities to continue supporting the software and updating it. The demand for Microsoft products among the Russian business still remains, and the software itself is supplied in boxed versions through parallel imports.

Vitaly Mankevich, chairman of the Russian-Asian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RASPP), believes that the corporation is trying to establish a direct dialogue with Russian business. Leaving Russia, according to his estimates, cost Microsoft approximately $125 million.

File:Aquote1.png
"As we can see, the Western authorities have not yet put pressure on Microsoft to work in Russia. Microsoft assesses the possibilities for returning to the country, "Kommersant quoted Mankevich as saying.
File:Aquote2.png

Microsoft's desire to maintain a presence in Russia may be explained by other reasons. In particular, in this way, the corporation may try to resist piracy. The letters sent out are in a sense "the guarantor that access to legal products remains open." In addition, there are reputational risks in the markets of other countries.

File:Aquote1.png
"Seeing the sharp refusal of the company to work with local Russian business for political reasons, companies in other countries will be more wary of Microsoft," Kommersant quotes Lyudmila Bogatyreva, head of the digital solutions department at Polilog agency[1]
 

Elios83

Member
Provide source before making claims. You can look up companies that's currently active in Russia.

It's a wall street journal article also citing the U.S. Treasury and Commerce Departments.
What source do you want more?
They were recently fined for sanctions violations.

Even if now they have changed their tune because they're obligated my point was that it shows how unwilling they are about leaving money behind even when they're practically forced by law (let alone when they certainly aren't as with the Activision deal) and how ridiculous is the idea that they're willing to compromise their business in UK and reputation among worldwide regulators for the Activision deal.
 
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It's a wall street journal article also citing the U.S. Treasury and Commerce Departments.
What source do you want more?
They were recently fined for sanctions violations.

Even if now they have changed their tune because they're obligated my point was that it shows how unwilling they are about leaving money behind even when they're practically forced by law (let alone when they certainly aren't as with the Activision deal) and how ridiculous is the idea that they're willing to compromise their business in UK and reputation among worldwide regulators for the Activision deal.

Basically. If Microsoft walks away it will be business as usual in the UK. But if they fight this and do something illegal it can hurt them a lot in that market. Potentially killing Xbox in the worse case. It's true that nobody is forcing them to take these extreme measures while the situation with Russia is something that's being put on them by multiple countries.
 

Eotheod

Member
Since we're in a lull waiting for info and the topic has descended into UK cuisine, I offer this up as "traditional food" from the north-east of the UK:
p25bPm8.jpg

(not a true Parmo as there is a salad present - far too healthy)

The "Parmo"

A colleague from the region introduced me to this, it's a rabbit-hole of madness with fan clubs, parmo-spotting, facebook groups, the works

With cooking instructions...

Australian RSL's and outback pubs serve the best parmy's hands down. From your regular good ol' parmy to your Mexican variety or even Hawaiian, we got em all.
 

GHG

Gold Member
Basically. If Microsoft walks away it will be business as usual in the UK. But if they fight this and do something illegal it can hurt them a lot in that market. Potentially killing Xbox in the worse case. It's true that nobody is forcing them to take these extreme measures while the situation with Russia is something that's being put on them by multiple countries.

If they decide to walk away/threaten the UK, particularly in a way that has direct implications for their infrastructure and defence critical contracts, then every other country around the world with similar contracts will start rethinking their relationship with Microsoft. Nevermind the immediate implications that all of this will have on their stick price, especially considering many of their largest investors aren't too fond of their involvement in Xbox/gaming even at the best of times.

The problem with people like Jez and his ilk is that they don't understand the world around them, and thus they are gaming "journalists".
 
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PaintTinJr

Member
Yes it is.





There is no ‘they’. I watched the entire 1 hour clip when it went live.

There was only this guy, who’s being paid £2k per month by a lobbying firm on behalf of Microsoft.


Cut the shit.
I'm surprised that article pre-dates the committee (steer) meeting.

What I found very worrying about that 1hr and listening to Bim Afolami MP's proxy questions, is that as a qualified solicitor(lawyer) himself and him having worked in the city for 10year previous, those proxy questions he asked and wanted answers from Cardell and her CMA colleague all had legal answers that he - from his work, his MP roles and bar membership - meant he definitely knew.

Raising a worry question for me: What other reasons - beyond fear of cash-for-questions or some landing pad job offer - would he have to ask those questions that he didn't need answered as they were moot, that all happened to parallel with accusations and media comments Microsoft made in criticising the CMA decision?
 
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Pelta88

Member
Jez Corden says microsoft will leave the UK and doesn't care about the fines from the CMA because they can overrule them
and the UK will reconsider because the country will crumble with no windows and no cybersecurity that microsoft gives them


The ultimate is sycophancy. His dedication to Phil Spencer is so immense he's online cursing out his own country, because an independent regulator wouldn't allow Microsoft to run riot.

How fucking sad is that?

Trashing your home/country of birth because the conglomerate, Microsoft, can't buy a win for its gaming division?
 
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GHG

Gold Member
Your only source is based on a Russian newspaper (kommersant newspaper). That's not a valid source.



Where's the source? That's right... You don't have any.

You don't get to determine what is a valid source and what isn't, it's about as reliable a source as you can find from Russia and they aren't hiding the names of the individuals making the statements.

If they were lying then Microsoft would have since released a statement saying so.
 
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feynoob

Gold Member
The ultimate is sycophancy. His dedication to Phil Spencer is so immense he's online cursing out his own country, because an independent regulator wouldn't allow Microsoft to run riot.

How fucking sad is that?

Trashing your home/country of birth because the conglomerate, Microsoft, can't buy a win for its gaming division?
Is jez a UK resident :pie_thinking:?
 
You don't get to determine what is a valid source and what isn't, it's about as reliable a source as you can find from Russia and they aren't hiding the names of the individuals making the statements.

If they were lying then Microsoft would have since released a statement saying so.

Like I said it would've been on this search engine if Microsoft was active in Russia. It would've been limited or partial active if this were true.

The only source you provided is a Russian newspaper based in Russia, no other news outlet. Let's trust one source that's based in Russia /s

 
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Eotheod

Member
I still don't fully understand the mental gymnastics required to conclude that cloud gaming is going to be this amazing sector of gaming. With the heavy reliance on country infrastructure to deliver efficient internet capacity while also maintaing affordability, it is practically impossible to state such a field is at this stage being dominated by anyone. The field is barely usable right now, and I honestly doubt it will get any better with decaying infrastructure.

Heck, here in Australia we are relying on Starlink to bandaid the shit and unreliable telco lines because of how screwed the NBN is. I'm just not seeing how this emerging sector could be such a threat really.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Like I said it would've been on this search engine if Microsoft was active in Russia. It would've been limited or partial active if this were true.

The only source you provided is a Russian newspaper based in Russia, no other news outlet. Let's trust one source that's based in Russia /s


You have a different source, not a definitive one. Let's not pretend this type of thing is new to Microsoft.

 

Topher

Gold Member
I still don't fully understand the mental gymnastics required to conclude that cloud gaming is going to be this amazing sector of gaming. With the heavy reliance on country infrastructure to deliver efficient internet capacity while also maintaing affordability, it is practically impossible to state such a field is at this stage being dominated by anyone. The field is barely usable right now, and I honestly doubt it will get any better with decaying infrastructure.

Heck, here in Australia we are relying on Starlink to bandaid the shit and unreliable telco lines because of how screwed the NBN is. I'm just not seeing how this emerging sector could be such a threat really.

I don't get the appeal for cloud gaming as a dedicated source, but if you are going to call it "mental gymnastics" then time to call out Microsoft and a host of others. Phil Spencer said this is where Microsoft's true competition in gaming would be not too long ago.
 

IFireflyl

Gold Member
I still don't fully understand the mental gymnastics required to conclude that cloud gaming is going to be this amazing sector of gaming. With the heavy reliance on country infrastructure to deliver efficient internet capacity while also maintaing affordability, it is practically impossible to state such a field is at this stage being dominated by anyone. The field is barely usable right now, and I honestly doubt it will get any better with decaying infrastructure.

Heck, here in Australia we are relying on Starlink to bandaid the shit and unreliable telco lines because of how screwed the NBN is. I'm just not seeing how this emerging sector could be such a threat really.


Each major gaming company — Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft — will update its flagship console this fall, but the next big platform might not be a box or a plastic disc or even a download. "It's cloud gaming," says Microsoft's vice president of cloud gaming, Kareem Choudhry. "I love what we're doing on consoles, and we're also the stewards of gaming on PCs. But I'm going to enable you to get into the games in whatever way you want."


Experience game streaming today​

Find out how you can join the preview and help us shape the future of gaming. Play Xbox games on your mobile phone or tablet.

Microsoft is the one that made claims that cloud gaming is the future. There should be no confusion on why cloud gaming was considered.
 
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