Still no explanation how MS will close this deal with a CMA block when their own documents explicitly say they need approval from all 4 major markets to do so.
They won't close anything.
The current contract is expiring, they didn't get the required approvals from CMA and FTC.
The original contract is dead.
The whole thing has already dragged on way more than they wanted/expected, they seemed so delusional to think they would get widespread approvals without the investigations going into phase 2 and with no competitor complaining (who remembers the articles last year: FTC will approve the deal by the end of summer
Now both companies will have to decide what they want to do without posturing bluffs in July.
Activision can back out and collect the 3 billions. Or they can go into a legal limbo trying to fight against CMA and FTC for an other 1-2 years, super low chances to win against CMA anyway and their strategies for the future completely locked until it's over.
Because of the high risks involved if they go this route Activision will ask way more than the 95$/share and a much higher breakup fee to still be able to claim that the deal is in the interests of their shareholders and getting approval from them.