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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
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  • Poll closed .
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There is none. Why do people get sucked into these bullshit reports?

Let's review the facts:
  • Microsoft and ABK made CMA's approval a condition of their merger.
  • The CMA blocked the acquisition, so MS and ABK cannot close (as per their own contract). Any such merger attempt would be void-ab-initio.
  • MS and ABK cannot change the contract (it'd require another approval from their shareholders).
  • And MS and ABK cannot close after July 18 once the contract expires, because there would not be any active contract at that point.
This is literally impossible.
As an aside, it's kind of cool to realize that we still use dog Latin phrasing like "ab initio" in legalese because modern legal systems are all descended from the Roman Empire.

Where would Western civilization be without Rome? It's hard to fathom.
 
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Topher

Gold Member
Man I've been back and forth on the fence this whole time whether not the deal's going to go through... And after reading that I'm pretty sure Microsoft is just going to do whatever the hell it takes to get their acquisition to go through. It's going to happen. Question is how long it's going to take the wrap us up now I guess

That is really going to depend on what "whatever the hell it takes" really means. If it means breaking the law then this shit will be going on for a really long time.
 

Thirty7ven

Banned
Man I've been back and forth on the fence this whole time whether not the deal's going to go through... And after reading that I'm pretty sure Microsoft is just going to do whatever the hell it takes to get their acquisition to go through. It's going to happen. Question is how long it's going to take the wrap us up now I guess

It’s going through, bet the house on it.
 

feynoob

Member
That is really going to depend on what "whatever the hell it takes" really means. If it means breaking the law then this shit will be going on for a really long time.
I want to watch wild west deal, he who makes the first step losses movie.
 

Astray

Member


Does she actually believe Microsoft have acted in a positive & respectful way to the CMA, the FTC and Sony throughout this process?

They’ve been nothing but contemptuous and petulant throughout. Downright disgusting at times.

Interesting to me that she's even making this tweet, usually it's Phil that does this stuff as Microsoft head of Gaming.

I think his days at the top are numbered.

The way MS is acting about this tells you all you need to know about how much Xbox needs ABK. Don’t give me bs about accelerating plans because clearly it’s done dotta without ABK.
Everyday I grow more and more convinced that this gen is Microsoft's last gasp at succeeding as a 1st party publisher.

If they don't get this deal across then they are just.. done.

I just don't see what more they can do to become relevant again.
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
Everyday I grow more and more convinced that this gen is Microsoft's last gasp at succeeding as a 1st party publisher.

If they don't get this deal across then they are just.. done.

I just don't see what more they can do to become relevant again.
I think you are right
But their biggest mistake was gamepass
If they sticked to making good games they could go back to the 360 era

Now with gamepass they have beggars that won't buy anything and wait for it to be on gamepass, wich pushes Microsoft to try gaining more subs to become profitable

The CMA documents had confirmation by Microsoft that gamepass leads to less game sales and they aren't profitable yet
 

splattered

Member
That is really going to depend on what "whatever the hell it takes" really means. If it means breaking the law then this shit will be going on for a really long time.
True maybe on the back end but for the perception of consumers purchasing Activision products now under Microsoft it may come sooner rather than later even if they continue to fight it out for who knows how long. I didn't think they would consider pulling out of UK but ehhh maybe they will after all? I dunno
 

feynoob

Member
I don't think that's farfetched really.

The sheer desperation is making me think abk is really ciritical to the surivival of xbox or at least in it's current form.
Nope that is not the case.
This deal was a golden chance, and MS doesnt want to let it go.
They wont get a chance to buy them again. Without that scandel incident, I doubt MS would have bought them. They tried once before that and got rejected.
 

Thirty7ven

Banned
I want them to do it, i want to see the drama and consequences

I wanna see what Sony does after it happens. Let’s go, industry has been boring for a hot minute anyway. If they don’t go after a Capcom or something then they should sit at the kids table.

Everyday I grow more and more convinced that this gen is Microsoft's last gasp at succeeding as a 1st party publisher.

If they don't get this deal across then they are just.. done.

I just don't see what more they can do to become relevant again.

Oh it’s a fact. It’s either this or they are going to leave their console warriors behind. Which would be funny too, seeing all those people who said consoles don’t matter having to deal with the fact that consoles don’t matter.

But it’s happening, if MS wasn’t acting like ABK failing is the end of Xbox I would think otherwise but it’s exactly how they are acting. Gamepass is in plateau mode already, they have nowhere to go. They need this, like really need this.
 

Astray

Member
I think I am going to lose couple of brain cells with these takes.
Ask yourself this: What are Microsoft's financial figures for Xbox/gaming?

It's been YEARS since we had anything relevant in terms of Profit/Loss. The extremely obvious answer is that it's an overall loss-making division.

We are not in an era where loss-making divisions can be tolerated for long, not with interest rates going up like that.

ABK is meant to be a massive revenue uplift to boost Microsoft's chances of succeeding in the gaming space, if that deal doesn't happen, and deals of similar size are precluded as a result (Take 2 or EA), then there's nothing left that can move the revenue to the same extent, and Microsoft management will have to ask itself if it's up for another long-term slog with no guarantee of results.
 

Dick Jones

Gold Member
Interesting to me that she's even making this tweet, usually it's Phil that does this stuff as Microsoft head of Gaming.

I think his days at the top are numbered.


Everyday I grow more and more convinced that this gen is Microsoft's last gasp at succeeding as a 1st party publisher.

If they don't get this deal across then they are just.. done.

I just don't see what more they can do to become relevant again.
Microsoft could be successful but the problem is the management dicked around for close to a decade and kept trying get rich quick schemes rather than making a plan and build up through hard work over time. Rome wasn't built in a day. Unless MS are happy to work hard and build up its marketshare, Xbox will fail.
 

Topher

Gold Member
True maybe on the back end but for the perception of consumers purchasing Activision products now under Microsoft it may come sooner rather than later even if they continue to fight it out for who knows how long. I didn't think they would consider pulling out of UK but ehhh maybe they will after all? I dunno

Not following what you are saying. The perception of consumers buying Activision products under MS "it may come sooner"......what may come sooner?
 

feynoob

Member
But their biggest mistake was gamepass
If they sticked to making good games they could go back to the 360 era
Without gamepass, Xbox would have been doomed. Gamepass saved xbox from having constant dry and negative media reception.

Now with gamepass they have beggars that won't buy anything and wait for it to be on gamepass, wich pushes Microsoft to try gaining more subs to become profitable

The CMA documents had confirmation by Microsoft that gamepass leads to less game sales and they aren't profitable yet
They get both revenue. From sales and from gamepass.
They expect to lose money, because you can only sell 20m+ max, unless you are nintendo()Not including 3rd party). And with a platform like Xbox, 10+m is their max. So gamepass is better option to generate money with extra sales too.

I mean look at their first party output. They havent had that huge list that makes them lose money.

5m copy sold at 70$ is 350m, or $700m for 10m. This doesnt take in to account for currency exchange, taxes, and other potential cost, which can reduce that price.

So for MS to generate 2.4b revenue, they will need to sell 34m at 70$. That is impossible.
 

splattered

Member
Not following what you are saying. The perception of consumers buying Activision products under MS "it may come sooner"......what may come sooner?
I just mean maybe we will see this "close" as consumers and start buying Activision games under Microsoft sooner than expected, while Microsoft continues to battle legal aspects in the background? Or does it all have to be 100% done cut and dry before any sort of transition and sales through Microsoft take place? I have no idea. Sorry this is speech to text to might not fully make sense.
 

Astray

Member
Microsoft could be successful but the problem is the management dicked around for close to a decade and kept trying get rich quick schemes rather than making a plan and build up through hard work over time. Rome wasn't built in a day. Unless MS are happy to work hard and build up its marketshare, Xbox will fail.
That's the thing I'm talking about, going back up the mountain is a slow arduous process, but it also requires $$$ that's dispensed on faith.

What makes anyone think that Satya would give Spencer even more money absent this merger happening? He's already wasted billions this gen alone.
 
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feynoob

Member
Ask yourself this: What are Microsoft's financial figures for Xbox/gaming?

It's been YEARS since we had anything relevant in terms of Profit/Loss. The extremely obvious answer is that it's an overall loss-making division.

We are not in an era where loss-making divisions can be tolerated for long, not with interest rates going up like that.

ABK is meant to be a massive revenue uplift to boost Microsoft's chances of succeeding in the gaming space, if that deal doesn't happen, and deals of similar size are precluded as a result (Take 2 or EA), then there's nothing left that can move the revenue to the same extent, and Microsoft management will have to ask itself if it's up for another long-term slog with no guarantee of results.
Because you need freaking studios to do that. MS fumbled this hard during OG xbox and X360. You cant have games without them.
And they started their purchase way too late. And with covid, some of those games that those studios were working got pushed back.
 
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Topher

Gold Member
I just mean maybe we will see this "close" as consumers and start buying Activision games under Microsoft sooner than expected, while Microsoft continues to battle legal aspects in the background? Or does it all have to be 100% done cut and dry before any sort of transition and sales through Microsoft take place? I have no idea. Sorry this is speech to text to might not fully make sense.

For that to happen Microsoft would have to decide to deliberately operate their business illegally in the UK. Microsoft has been given a lawful order to not buy or invest in Activision Blizzard. There is no getting around that unless they win the appeal.
 

feynoob

Member
For that to happen Microsoft would have to decide to deliberately operate their business illegally in the UK. Microsoft has been given a lawful order to not buy or invest in Activision Blizzard. There is no getting around that unless they win the appeal.
 

Astray

Member
Because you need freaking studios to do that. MS fumbled this hard during OG xbox and X360. You cant have games without them.
And they started their purchase way too late. And with covid, some of those games that those studios were working got pushed back.
You're thinking too small here.

If this deal doesn't close, then at some point, someone will raise an email asking "wtf are still doing with this console business?", and just like that, you will see ALL Microsoft studios being under a root and branch review, and it will be the little snowball that grows into an avalanche.

If that happens, then you will see studio closures and studios merging like you wouldn't believe. The entire gaming business will be restructured to work like an EA or Activision.

Even the shills know that their gravy train is under threat if this deal doesn't happen, they may not be privy to the details, but you can feel the storm coming, that's why you are seeing even the smallest most tinpot Xbox streamers losing their shit over a deal that literally won't add anything new to their gaming selection that they didn't have access to before.
 
Eh. Not really. If it got big were it something as big as native console are now. Other publisher would be putting their games on them cause that where the ppl are. Publishers didn’t feel like making their game for google cause it be a waste of money. Like no one was buying enough to make up the cost to port it to it. But if cloud ever get big enough they would. They have the content then.
You think a new entrant would be able to compete with a service that has Halo, Forza, Gears of War, Fable, Fallout, Elder Scrolls, Call of Duty, Diablo, StarCraft, Starfield, Doom, Wolfenstein, and then all the third party stuff?
They’d have to pay billions upon billions to enter that market and compete on an even footing. Throw in GamePass and it becomes even harder to compete.
 

graywolf323

Member
Because you need freaking studios to do that. MS fumbled this hard during OG xbox and X360. You cant have games without them.
And they started their purchase way too late. And with covid, some of those games that those studios were working got pushed back.
maybe if they hadn’t closed so many studios under Spencer… I’ve addressed this previously but the reason they only had 5 first party studios before they started the acquisitions was because of how many they closed after Phil took over as head of first party in 2008 (and this continued after he took over as head of Xbox in 2014)
 
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feynoob

Member
maybe if they hadn’t closed so many studios under Spencer… I’ve addressed this before previously but the reason they only had 5 first party studios before they started the acquisitions was because of how many they closed after Phil took over as head of first party in 2007 (and this continued after he took over as head of Xbox in 2014)
NOt this stupid argument.
The only worthy studio was lionhead. Others were not even that good as a first party studio.

MS needed studios at the level of rare, bungie, playground, obsidian.
 
I don't think that's farfetched really.

The sheer desperation is making me think abk is really ciritical to the surivival of xbox or at least in it's current form.
The ABK acquisition really does feel like a Hail Mary for Xbox.

Satya cannot be the least bit happy with the performance of the Xbox division after he took over as CEO. Remember, he was going to axe it like Windows Phone when he originally took over. There can't be that much runway left for Xbox after the back-to-back belly flops of the XBone and the XSSX.
 

feynoob

Member
You're thinking too small here.

If this deal doesn't close, then at some point, someone will raise an email asking "wtf are still doing with this console business?", and just like that, you will see ALL Microsoft studios being under a root and branch review, and it will be the little snowball that grows into an avalanche.

If that happens, then you will see studio closures and studios merging like you wouldn't believe. The entire gaming business will be restructured to work like an EA or Activision.

Even the shills know that their gravy train is under threat if this deal doesn't happen, they may not be privy to the details, but you can feel the storm coming, that's why you are seeing even the smallest most tinpot Xbox streamers losing their shit over a deal that literally won't add anything new to their gaming selection that they didn't have access to before.
That wont happen. You are overthinking too much here.

This deal is MS who want to expand their gaming business outside of Xbox.

Xbox will function as a seperate. They still have gamepass which is their main target. What you are suggesting will make their gamepass investment utterly worthless.

So pipe down little bit and relax.
 
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graywolf323

Member
NOt this stupid argument.
The only worthy studio was lionhead. Others were not even that good as a first party studio.

MS needed studios at the level of rare, bungie, playground, obsidian.
there was also Bungie which demanded their freedom when Phil was in charge of first party and Ensemble Studios who were the original creators of Age of Empires (and Halo Wars)

they closed some quality studios that weren’t Lionhead too…

and regarding the other ones why couldn’t they grow their studios like Sony has? Microsoft in general has not had a great history when it comes to nurturing things along and we’re still witnessing the issues stemming from that even after they’ve gone and purchased so many studios that they’ve gone from only 5 to having the LARGEST first-party stable of developers in the industry (even without the purchase of ABK)
 
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Riky

$MSFT
Spencer said clearly that Activision just accelerates their plans, the goals will remain the same if the deal happens or not.
People have had these doom stories about Xbox since the original console, none have come true and they are still here decades later trying to make the biggest purchase in gaming history happen.
 

feynoob

Member
there was also Bungie which demanded their freedom when Phil was in charge of first party and Ensemble Studios who were the original creators of Age of Empires (and Halo Wars)

they closed some quality studios that weren’t Lionhead too…
Bungie loss was bad. They could have made an epic game for Xbox.
as for the studios, here is the list.

Former[edit]​

Sold or spun off
Closed or consolidated
 

Varteras

Gold Member
Nah, Lina Khan has already said that she cares more about pushing the envelope of M&A law than winning the case. That's a big reason why they lose soo much. Microsoft knows this. So yeah, FTC doesn't really matter as you've said, so why keep bringing them up? This acquisition begins and ends with CMA.

I would also say that's a "careful what you laugh at" situation. What Khan has been trying to do is convince the government that the FTC is toothless and needs to be reformed. Granting much more power and autonomy than it currently has. She may win for losing. It may ultimately lead to the FTC being granted the kind of power it needs to slam big tech in the future. Not only by being able to easily block deals far smaller than this one, but retroactively force divestments.
 

Astray

Member
This deal is MS who want to expand their gaming business.

Xbox will function as a seperate. They still have gamepass which is their main target. What you are suggesting will make their gamepass investment utterly worthless.
I'll just answer you with this passage from 'How the Mighty Fall' by Jim Collins:
STAGE 3: DENIAL OF RISK AND PERIL
As companies move into Stage 3, internal warning signs begin to mount, yet external results remain strong enough to "explain away" disturbing data or to suggest that the difficulties are "temporary" or "cyclic" or "not that bad," and "nothing is fundamentally wrong." In Stage 3, leaders discount negative data, amplify positive data, and put a positive spin on ambiguous data. Those in power start to blame external factors for setbacks rather than accept responsibility. The vigorous, fact-based dialogue that characterizes high-performance teams dwindles or disappears altogether. When those in power begin to imperil the enterprise by taking outsize risks and acting in a way that denies the consequences of those risks, they are headed straight for Stage 4.
When management starts to constantly emphasize meaningless numbers like MAUs to hide their failures, you know the writing is on the wall.

Btw, the fanbase is in Stage 3, but the gaming division is actually in stage 4.
 
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I would also say that's a "careful what you laugh at" situation. What Khan has been trying to do is convince the government that the FTC is toothless and needs to be reformed. Granting much more power and autonomy than it currently has. She may win for losing. It may ultimately lead to the FTC being granted the kind of power it needs to slam big tech in the future. Not only by being able to easily block deals far smaller than this one, but retroactively force divestments.

There's a growing interest in giving teeth back to antitrust in Washington. We'll see if it goes anywhere though.
 

Varteras

Gold Member
Bungie loss was bad. They could have made an epic game for Xbox.
as for the studios, here is the list.

Former[edit]​

Sold or spun off
Closed or consolidated

Add Decisive, LXP, SOTA, FUNction, NP, and Platform Next to that list. None of them ended up doing anything, but they nonetheless existed.
 

Topher

Gold Member
I would also say that's a "careful what you laugh at" situation. What Khan has been trying to do is convince the government that the FTC is toothless and needs to be reformed. Granting much more power and autonomy than it currently has. She may win for losing. It may ultimately lead to the FTC being granted the kind of power it needs to slam big tech in the future. Not only by being able to easily block deals far smaller than this one, but retroactively force divestments.

Perhaps, but strengthening the powers of the FTC will require Congressional action. With the political makeup of Washington DC as it is, as much as I hate to say it, I don't see that happening any time soon.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
I think you are right
But their biggest mistake was gamepass
If they sticked to making good games they could go back to the 360 era

Now with gamepass they have beggars that won't buy anything and wait for it to be on gamepass, wich pushes Microsoft to try gaining more subs to become profitable

The CMA documents had confirmation by Microsoft that gamepass leads to less game sales and they aren't profitable yet
Microsoft wanted to cannibalise third party game sales via Game Pass and now third parties are starting to catch on and aren’t publishing games on the platform.

Insert shocked Pikachu face here.

Game Pass is a failed project IMO, it’ll never reach mass market penetration without being on PS and Nintendo platforms. They should have made it as a platform to promote and invest in quality indies and AA games.
 

Varteras

Gold Member
Perhaps, but strengthening the powers of the FTC will require Congressional action. With the political makeup of Washington DC as it is, as much as I hate to say it, I don't see that happening any time soon.

There's a growing interest in giving teeth back to antitrust in Washington. We'll see if it goes anywhere though.

Any time soon? Probably not. That does depend on the political makeup after the upcoming sets of elections. But even if it's 10 years from now, we could see an FTC that goes back in a type of anti-trust crusade. They'd do it now if they could
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
That is really going to depend on what "whatever the hell it takes" really means. If it means breaking the law then this shit will be going on for a really long time.
Phil Spencer offering licky licky on a 10 year contract

s300_SC_960x640.jpg
 
So we're back to Microsoft thinking they are above the law?

These headlines read similar to what was being said about how they would handle the FTC just days before the CMA's decision, and we all know how that turned out.

If they want to go against the ruling of a regulatory body instead of seeing through the appeals process then good luck to them, that's all I have to say.
Lol that’s definitely not “all you have to say” about this topic to be fair.
 

feynoob

Member
I'll just answer you with this passage from 'How the Mighty Fall' by Jim Collins:

When management starts to constantly emphasize meaningless numbers like MAUs to hide their failures, you know the writing is on the wall.

Btw, the fanbase is in Stage 3, but the gaming division is actually in stage 4.
Here is an idiom.
A house cannot be built without bricks as it needs the cement to hold the parts together. As well as this, it needs to be composed of a foundation to start building upon and an imagination to design both the interior and exterior of the house such as the windows and the floor design. Without these other essential materials included in the building of the house, it would merely be a pile of bricks with no structure and meaning.
Xbox current result is the decade of failed invesment from MS on their in house studios.
The games that people want is not there, because MS didnt have the people that made the games.

To make it easier, pay a close attention to this list.
vOOIaz0.png


Especially the date that MS bought these studios.

If you can pay attention to these details, the output of those studios, you will understand the reason why they are in this shit state.
 

Astray

Member
Here is an idiom.

Xbox current result is the decade of failed invesment from MS on their in house studios.
The games that people want is not there, because MS didnt have the people that made the games.

To make it easier, pay a close attention to this list.
vOOIaz0.png


Especially the date that MS bought these studios.

If you can pay attention to these details, the output of those studios, you will understand the reason why they are in this shit state.
Dude. You and I are on completely different discussions.

The reason Microsoft's gaming business is in a bad state is not important right now. What's important is, how long will Microsoft upper brass be ok with them being in a bad state?

Interest rates are going up, this means that financing is becoming more expensive, which means that all businesses are trying to justify their existence by moving towards profitability.

The last 10 years were an almost fugue state when it comes to finance, useless and loss-making businesses were able to coast by on cheap money and clueless investors that rely on said cheap money.. That's not happening anymore.
 

devilNprada

Member
Spencer said clearly that Activision just accelerates their plans, the goals will remain the same if the deal happens or not.
People have had these doom stories about Xbox since the original console, none have come true and they are still here decades later trying to make the biggest purchase in gaming history happen.
This is not Xbox money... This is MS latest attempt to always be in everybody's lives money...
 

feynoob

Member
Dude. You and I are on completely different discussions.

The reason Microsoft's gaming business is in a bad state is not important right now. What's important is, how long will Microsoft upper brass be ok with them being in a bad state?

Interest rates are going up, this means that financing is becoming more expensive, which means that all businesses are trying to justify their existence by moving towards profitability.

The last 10 years were an almost fugue state when it comes to finance, useless and loss-making businesses were able to coast by on cheap money and clueless investors that rely on said cheap money.. That's not happening anymore.
GAMEPASS

That is it. MS is spending tons of money on this project with xcloud along the line. Its why you dont need to worry about them and the after math of this deal.

Why do you think MS stock rose up, when this deal failed? Because MS isnt losing shit. They still have their money, aside of the $3b payout.

They can allocate some of that activision money for Xbox invesment, if they truly care about Xbox.
 

Astray

Member
They can allocate some of that activision money for Xbox invesment, if they truly care about Xbox.
They won't find an opportunity that moves their gaming revenue like ABK.

This current fiasco is creating a new risk factor for any new acquisitions of this level.

Anything lower just won't be making much difference.

It's either ABK or bust for Xbox imo.
 

feynoob

Member
They won't find an opportunity that moves their gaming revenue like ABK.

This current fiasco is creating a new risk factor for any new acquisitions of this level.

Anything lower just won't be making much difference.

It's either ABK or bust for Xbox imo.
Its not.
They wont get anything new with Activision, other than gamepass increase. Xbox and PS will still get activision games. And PS will still have more COD players, simply because of the brand name.

You need to identify the problem first, which is their output and not having a distinguishable IPs that people like. That is what their current new studios need to fix. And that takes time.

If Xbox managed to survive Xbox one, then they can survive this gen fine. Because this gen is much better than the Xbox one, considering they have the studios that make games for them.
 

Astray

Member
They wont get anything new with Activision
Bro, all Activision Blizzard King revenues will become Microsoft revenues after this deal, they will literally grow their revenue massively and overtake Nintendo.

Focusing on just gamepass growth on Xbox is missing the forest for the trees here.
 

Thirty7ven

Banned
Its not.
They wont get anything new with Activision, other than gamepass increase. Xbox and PS will still get activision games. And PS will still have more COD players, simply because of the brand name.

You need to identify the problem first, which is their output and not having a distinguishable IPs that people like. That is what their current new studios need to fix. And that takes time.

If Xbox managed to survive Xbox one, then they can survive this gen fine. Because this gen is much better than the Xbox one, considering they have the studios that make games for them.

They don’t seem fine at all, Series is on track to fail harder than Xbox One.

And this whole ABK will be multiplatform is such a joke. Why, because of Minecraft? Come on now. What about Bethesda then? It’s a bad joke at this point. At best they keep it going on PS5 because otherwise the COD audience on PlayStation might just tell them to fuck off. And then next gen? Over.
 
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