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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Topher

Gold Member
Actually EA is easy. There’s blood in the water there. Outside of EA Sports, the rest of the company has been struggling for a decade and hasn’t produced a major hit. EA is the next to be acquired, probably by Apple within a few years.

I read some rumblings about Disney having eyes on EA. Pretty sure Apple would be met with resistance, even if futile.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
Blood in the water, easy purchase, lots of IPs.
We’ll have to agree to disagree - I personally think if they couldn’t get a Capcom or Nintendo they’d rather selectively acquire a handful of smaller quality devs like Supergiant games. I think if they were weighing up the pros and cons of EA the IP and profitability of EA FC etc would be in the pro column but the perceived quality would be such a low in the negative column that they wouldn’t touch it.
 

Varteras

Gold Member
We’ll have to agree to disagree - I personally think if they couldn’t get a Capcom or Nintendo they’d rather selectively acquire a handful of smaller quality devs like Supergiant games. I think if they were weighing up the pros and cons of EA the IP and profitability of EA FC etc would be in the pro column but the perceived quality would be such a low in the negative column that they wouldn’t touch it.

Stop thinking and go lift more weights. I'm not cuddling a stick.
 

FireFly

Member
This is goal post moving. I said Microsoft - not xbox - spend the most on marketing in the world and was told that was BS. How that money is divided up makes no difference to the point I was making.

And the point about - if you randomly sampled MSN/outlook using grandmas - the marketing will have most of them say xbox - without even knowing PlayStation - because I believe Xbox has an unrivalled console marketing spend in real-terms was the whole purpose of the comment in regards of tax.

As I've implied before, how much in marketing spend would PlayStation, Nintendo, Steam or Epic games have to pay Microsoft for them to rename the Xbox Game Bar that's IE4 integrated into their PC gaming monopoly OS with their brand instead? Xbox advertising is co-oped in everything Microsoft do that they can coop it with, just like office, edge, bing, onedrive, etc.

Every Minesweeper, Solitaire, Freecell player is exposed to Xbox Game Studios as the brand, why would they not sell unsellable MSN,etc full priced ad space to themselves for Xbox and get it free via tax deductible losses?
Well, you need to define what "marketing" is, before it can be evaluated with figures. If you're talking about mindshare built through the OS, then Microsoft don't need to "spend" anything at all. They just ship the OS with the Xbox name in it.

You seemed to be using the entire expenditure of the sales and marketing department, which encompasses all Microsoft products, even those that have no tie in to Xbox. And even on that figure, Alphabet apparently spent over $26 billion on sales and marketing in 2022.
 
laxg-flying-pig-of-topanga_featured.jpg


Nervous Key And Peele GIF
Let's call them pig-xies!!!
 

PaintTinJr

Member
Well, you need to define what "marketing" is, before it can be evaluated with figures. If you're talking about mindshare built through the OS, then Microsoft don't need to "spend" anything at all. They just ship the OS with the Xbox name in it.

You seemed to be using the entire expenditure of the sales and marketing department, which encompasses all Microsoft products, even those that have no tie in to Xbox. And even on that figure, Alphabet apparently spent over $26 billion on sales and marketing in 2022.
No, that's still a strawman when I originally made this point about marketing spend in this thread with 2020 or 2021 data that was available at the time, IIRC and I was merely comparing the scale of the companies as a whole in competition, so no I wasn't using the entire thing for xbox, then AFAIK, and certainly wasn't now like you've wrongly stated twice.

My point about full-price ads sold at a full loss to a different department for xbox isn't so unusual when you consider how much Microsoft have made the point that Google hoovers up all the revenue in internet search advertising.
 

FireFly

Member
No, that's still a strawman when I originally made this point about marketing spend in this thread with 2020 or 2021 data that was available at the time, IIRC and I was merely comparing the scale of the companies as a whole in competition, so no I wasn't using the entire thing for xbox, then AFAIK, and certainly wasn't now like you've wrongly stated twice.
Your original claim was that "Microsoft spends more on marketing than any company on the planet". Notice the present tense. Did you instead mean that Microsoft spent more in 2020/2021 on marketing than any other company?

And by marketing, do you mean all money spent by the sales and marketing departments? Or some other definition?
 
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PaintTinJr

Member
Your original claim was that "Microsoft spends more on marketing than any company on the planet". Notice the present tense. Did you instead mean that Microsoft spent more in 2020/2021 on marketing than any other company?

And by marketing, do you mean all money spent by the sales and marketing departments? Or some other definition?
All still moving goalposts. The comparison of the companies by definition matters not, as Sony and Nintendo will be dwarfed by all of Microsoft in either definition, and the "That's just bullshit" that I was defending my comment against is totally misplaced against an overall trend in marketing and sales spending (or however Bing defined it when I search back then) if you have to slide the window to the right by 1year to falsely invalidate a reasonable comment being claimed as bullshit.

On the points made, nothing I said was even remotely close to the ballpark of BS, and the comparison of whole companies spend by any definition would have still held as fair.
 
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CuNi

Member
So how is this going to work exactly?

Will the CMA put out a statement with an official OK or is it defaulted to OK if they don't publish any response that prohibits the merger?
I have no clue about those systems but I'm just curious if we need any special statement. I need info so I know when to check out gaf to embrace the meltdowns of either pro or contra warriors once a final final final™️ decision is made.
 

King Dazzar

Member
So how is this going to work exactly?

Will the CMA put out a statement with an official OK or is it defaulted to OK if they don't publish any response that prohibits the merger?
I have no clue about those systems but I'm just curious if we need any special statement. I need info so I know when to check out gaf to embrace the meltdowns of either pro or contra warriors once a final final final™️ decision is made.
I think you'll be disappointed. Everyone at this stage is pretty much resigned to it going through and have been for some time. If the CMA were to shock us all and block it again (highly unlikely), that might be interesting. For me, I'm more focused now on what happens following the approval.
 

CuNi

Member
I think you'll be disappointed. Everyone at this stage is pretty much resigned to it going through and have been for some time. If the CMA were to shock us all and block it again (highly unlikely), that might be interesting. For me, I'm more focused now on what happens following the approval.

I didn't mean to imply it will be blocked.
The first part of the question is a legitimate one. Will the CMA announce their decision, or is the date passing already a formal decision etc.
What are the correct steps that will happen soonish to seal the final fate of this transaction?

And the second part was a bit mean, I admit.
We have 2 very vocal factions on here, seated on both ends of the spectrum.
We will either be flooded with "Microsoft just doomed the gaming industry!" etc. or "Authorities hamper gaming diversity!" threads once the final verdict has been spoken.

But again, I'd like to take the focus of that post more to the first part as I honestly would like to know what the next steps are and how they are announced, if at all.
 

FireFly

Member
All still moving goalposts. The comparison of the companies by definition matters not, as Sony and Nintendo will be dwarfed by all of Microsoft in either definition, and the "That's just bullshit" that I was defending my comment against is totally misplaced against an overall trend in marketing and sales spending (or however Bing defined it when I search back then) if you have to slide the window to the right by 1year to falsely invalidate a reasonable comment being claimed as bullshit.

On the points made, nothing I said was even remotely close to the ballpark of BS, and the comparison of whole companies spend by any definition would have still held as fair.
Well, it looks like Alphabet was ahead in 2019, 2021 and 2022 in terms of sales and marketing spend. We also don't have figures for Apple, which has almost double the revenue of Microsoft.

But I take your point about this being academic when compared to Sony and Nintendo. However, the $20 billion is for the entire sales organisation, so if you are talking about "marketing" for the Xbox brand, you will need a more specific definition. For example, Microsoft looks to have spent around $1.5 billion in advertising per-year over the last 5 year period, compared to around $2.5-$4 billion for Sony. So there they aren't dwarfing the competition (though it's not broken down by business in either case). Then you need some way of assessing the network effects of having Xbox integrated into Windows.
 
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reksveks

Member
Will the CMA put out a statement with an official OK or is it defaulted to OK if they don't publish any response that prohibits the merger?
They will have to publish a decision (approve or phase 2 or block) by the 18th.

If it goes that late, I assume MS will still be fine to close.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
They will have to publish a decision (approve or phase 2 or block) by the 18th.

If it goes that late, I assume MS will still be fine to close.
If it does go to a phase 2 I believe the CMA have to change their decision in principle to block the merger because of an SLC for that to happen.

Which in those circumstances should free ATVI from any obligations - being out of agreement extension time - and could then take the money. But that feels like such an unlikely situation, now IMO given the way the CMA has been for months, I think we can all assume it isn't even getting the 2nd phase scrutiny now, to close now that the principle decision favours Microsoft.
 

bitbydeath

Gold Member
IRS update. MS was bouncing stuff around to other countries to avoid taxes.

They still the good guys, Team Green? Lol

Guess they won’t be doing an all-cash deal for ABK.

As of June 2023, the firm had saved over $111 billion in cash equivalents that it keeps on hand.
 

freefornow

Member
IRS update. MS was bouncing stuff around to other countries to avoid taxes.

They still the good guys, Team Green? Lol

"Transfer pricing is a legal technique used by large businesses to move profits around from parent companies to subsidiaries and affiliates to ensure funds are evenly distributed. However, many multinational corporations use it as a tactic to lower their tax burdens and end up fighting the IRS in court."
 
If it does go to a phase 2 I believe the CMA have to change their decision in principle to block the merger because of an SLC for that to happen.

Which in those circumstances should free ATVI from any obligations - being out of agreement extension time - and could then take the money. But that feels like such an unlikely situation, now IMO given the way the CMA has been for months, I think we can all assume it isn't even getting the 2nd phase scrutiny now, to close now that the principle decision favours Microsoft.
Because Microsoft have satisfied the CMA'S concerns it's that simple, a 2nd phase is not needed. I imagine it either gets passed tomorrow or Monday at the latest.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
Because Microsoft have satisfied the CMA'S concerns it's that simple, a 2nd phase is not needed. I imagine it either gets passed tomorrow or Monday at the latest.
That isn't technically what the CMA said, as they still had major concerns that they mentioned, and at that point the CMA had no feedback on this change of position, and those against the deal, until then had no way of knowing this would be Microsoft's new offer with further modifications. So without the CMA pre-emptively ignoring any feedback, in a fair situation the final decision can't be made on balance until all feedback is in, considered, acted upon and a decision made for or against with a 2nd phase.

From a standard position of fairness, a 2nd phase to consider that the CMA did a complete 180 on their position would seem correct IMO, having given Microsoft 2years to fight their side of the argument, this is the first time that the other side of the argument has been winning, so giving the opposition just two weeks to counter seems like the process is fully stacked in the merging parties favour when the CMA make a late capitulation, as they have here.
 
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MarkMe2525

Member
They've spent around $20b per year on marketing in recent years , having ramped up progressively from $3-5b from 2 decades ago, when I checked this a year or so ago for this question of how they compete with Sony and Nintendo

In a world of targeted internet ads, what value do they gain in ads spend on existing evangelists?
Cmon, they don't target xbox ads to xbox fans? That doesn't pass the smell test.
 

Pelta88

Member
Share halted means it's a done deal.

XBOX as a division has never been in a worse position. Their core support got a extended look behind the curtain and it's abundantly clear they've got more money than sense. Behind the scenes, it's an absolute catastrophe. The original goal was to remove content from their rival. The end result, ubisoft controls the right to the ip they spent 78 Billion on.

It's been hilarious.
 

ShaiKhulud1989

Gold Member
Share halted means it's a done deal.

XBOX as a division has never been in a worse position. Their core support got a extended look behind the curtain and it's abundantly clear they've got more money than sense. Behind the scenes, it's an absolute catastrophe. The original goal was to remove content from their rival. The end result, ubisoft controls the right to the ip they spent 78 Billion on.

It's been hilarious.
Yeah, after those leaks I think the market is pretty safe lol.

That being said I’m glad that the drama is finally over and every side of it could go back to making games.
 
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