• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.

//DEVIL//

Member
Nothing was really lost by Sony or PlayStation or fans. COD will continue to be on PlayStation as per their recent deal. I don't think anything else, especially in the near-to-mid-future lineup, is even remotely big enough to change the balance
If I m not mistaken. They kinda lost everything but call of duty for the next 10 years. And even that they lost the marketing rights as well by 2024.
 

Ozriel

M$FT
Microsoft are not going to pump billions into a project and not expect anything back in return

Oh, but they’re likely getting a lot back.

+ $8bn additional annual revenue
+ $1.5 - $2bn additional annual profit

Comparatively, Salesforce bought Slack for $28bn, 40% of the amount MS spent on ABK. Slack generates an eight of the revenue Activision makes (slightly under a billion dollars per year) and has been making losses for years.
 

FunkMiller

Member
small-202310131534471102-1.jpg

Quoted for unfortunate extreme accuracy.

MS's track record with what they've done with the devs they've purchased previously has been horrendous.

Not sure why anyone thinks things will be different with ABK, given that all the same people are in charge.

'How Microsoft killed Call Of Duty' articles on Gamespot coming in two or three years, I fear.

I would like to be pleasantly proved wrong on this... but not holding my breath.
 
Last edited:

Ozriel

M$FT
It’s clearly an anti competitive, monopolistic style move in the industry, one that follows previous ones from MS, and we should all congratulate them and their fans and I believe years down the line most people will look back and say you know what, thank you MS.

Every regulator in the world aside from the FTC says the deal isn’t anti-competitive or monopolistic. The CMA agrees with that. And as Heisenberg says…

Nothing was really lost by Sony or PlayStation or fans. COD will continue to be on PlayStation as per their recent deal. I don't think anything else, especially in the near-to-mid-future lineup, is even remotely big enough to change the balance.
 

Mephisto40

Member
Oh, but they’re likely getting a lot back.

+ $8bn additional annual revenue
+ $1.5 - $2bn additional annual profit

Comparatively, Salesforce bought Slack for $28bn, 40% of the amount MS spent on ABK. Slack generates an eight of the revenue Activision makes (slightly under a billion dollars per year) and has been making losses for years.
Where on earth are you getting these figures from? where is this extra revenue and profit coming from?
 

reksveks

Member
Where on earth are you getting these figures from? where is this extra revenue and profit coming from?
ABK's Investor relation reports , there is going to be a slight decline in revenue and profit in terms of GP (assuming everything else stays constant) but the absolute max is 10% and it's probably less than that dependent on how much is mtx.
 
Last edited:

Fabieter

Member
Oh, but they’re likely getting a lot back.

+ $8bn additional annual revenue
+ $1.5 - $2bn additional annual profit

Comparatively, Salesforce bought Slack for $28bn, 40% of the amount MS spent on ABK. Slack generates an eight of the revenue Activision makes (slightly under a billion dollars per year) and has been making losses for years.

Will profit stay the same when games getting exclusive and cod and blizzard games go to gamepass tho? Bobby himself said he doesn't want games on a sub because of more revenue and profit so your numbers won't be true in the future.
 

FireFly

Member
I guarantee by this time next year the xbox fanboys cheering this on are going to start regretting it. Once MS has you by the balls they are going to start twisting, and there will fuck all you can do about it.
It will reach a point where gamepass is the equivalent to buying several Day One releases a year and for most people they won't be 'saving' money. This isn't about saving you money, this is about getting you into the subscription then slowly milking you.
Good luck.
Episode 1 Sketch Comedy GIF by Prime Video Canada
Nothing is to stop people from unsubscribing to Game Pass if it no longer represents reasonable value. And you can still lock in 3 years with the Core to Ultimate conversion.
 
Last edited:

Fabieter

Member
Nothing is to stop people from unsubscribing to Game Pass if it no longer represents reasonable value. And you can still lock in 3 years with the Core to Ultimate conversion.

People still sub to netflix and in my opinion the value isn't there anymore. Most people are too lazy to unsub so no just mo
 

jumpship

Member
I don't see how this deal with Ubisoft for cloud and the promises they've made, won't require ongoing management and oversight from the likes of the CMA, so in that case they have gone back on their initial beliefs and bent over for MS.

This is what I found odd. In the previous deal CMA repeated said they wouldn't want to oversee MS for 10 years, but now accepted overseeing Ubisoft for 15 years. Makes no sense to me but is what it is. CMA bent the knee spineless pricks :messenger_tears_of_joy:
 

Fabieter

Member
This is what I found odd. In the previous deal CMA repeated said they wouldn't want to oversee MS for 10 years, but now accepted overseeing Ubisoft for 15 years. Makes no sense to me but is what it is. CMA bent the knee spineless pricks :messenger_tears_of_joy:

Money talks always has always will. At least it showed the real face from some of Microsoft and xbox employees not that people will stop simp for them but still.
 

Lupin25

Member
You’re right. It’s a gift to all gamers.

Congrats to Xbox fans
Hard luck to PlayStation fans

Hope MS utilize this effectively as this can be their turning point.

Hope Sony stops being arrogant and more consumer friendly and more fierce in investing in studios or pubs if they ever want to do anything more than just repeateting 4 games over and over.

😂

Some of you are crying like babies right now, it is really embarrassing man Sony will be perfectly fine nothing is going to happen to them.

I wish Activistion bought Bungie back in the day and they become ABBK, that would gave been more fun, everything coming full circle.

What’s more sad is how you’ve all been tricked into thinking you’ll actually be saving more money over time.

*CoD is pay-to-win game. It doesn’t matter if it’s on gamepass. The people who pay the most have the most leverage not the people who actively try to save money. Absurd. 🤣
 
Last edited:

Ozriel

M$FT
Will profit stay the same when games getting exclusive and cod and blizzard games go to gamepass tho? Bobby himself said he doesn't want games on a sub because of more revenue and profit so your numbers won't be true in the future.

These are profits and revenues from fewer games. You forget Activision has largely been carried by COD, Candy Crush, Diablo and Overwatch/WoW in recent years. These will continue to be multiplatform, and will see expansion to the next gen Switch for even more revenue.

Why would exclusivity for new games or IP outside the staple earners lead to a drop in revenue?

Gamepass will likely impact COD sales on Xbox, but they’ll be expanding platforms to Switch 2, and expecting an increase in MTX revenue from GP. Not to mention a meaningful increase in GP subscribers and GP revenue.
 

Three

Member
To be honest I think maybe that the importance of ActiBliz content was maybe over played, but it is the general market manipulation that needs to be watched. I don't see how this deal with Ubisoft for cloud and the promises they've made, won't require ongoing management and oversight from the likes of the CMA, so in that case they have gone back on their initial beliefs and bent over for MS.
Honestly I think there was a promise to the government for AI monitoring of game communication or something. Some technology MS could offer back. I still don't understand why they were so secretive in CAT. They could have just said we plan a divestment of cloud licensing to a third party as the material change. There was no reason to be so under the table.

Will be interesting to see how the deal in general alters behaviour of console rivals and cloud giants in the future.

I think Gamepass will get an overhaul, maybe in time introducing a 3rd tier and first part exclusives will only be available day 1 in the highest tier which will be priced quite a bit higher. That way they can still say they are available on Gamepass day 1. The other tiers would maybe get them 6-12 months later. We will see.

I very much doubt it will get an overhaul to a new tier. They might milk sales of their popular franchises by not having the big ones like D4 and CoDMW come until next year to prevent loses now, raise gamepass prices next year then do "day 5" releases as usual.
 

Fabieter

Member
These are profits and revenues from fewer games. You forget Activision has largely been carried by COD, Candy Crush, Diablo and Overwatch/WoW in recent years. These will continue to be multiplatform, and will see expansion to the next gen Switch for even more revenue.

Why would exclusivity for new games or IP outside the staple earners lead to a drop in revenue?

Gamepass will likely impact COD sales on Xbox, but they’ll be expanding platforms to Switch 2, and expecting an increase in MTX revenue from GP. Not to mention a meaningful increase in GP subscribers and GP revenue.

If ms does a alot new ips than they probably have to free devs from cod which will probably lead to a drop of the yearly release. You can't see a case where a cod Maybe every three years won't drop the revenue significantly. New ips are even more risky, there is a reason to why avb became a cod factory.

The best they can do with this purchase tho. Kick out the current xbox executives and get those avb suits in charge of xbox.

As for me iam 100% gaming is gonna be shit in a decade with everything happening in the last few years.
 

RavenSan

Off-Site Inflammatory Member
These are profits and revenues from fewer games. You forget Activision has largely been carried by COD, Candy Crush, Diablo and Overwatch/WoW in recent years. These will continue to be multiplatform, and will see expansion to the next gen Switch for even more revenue.

Why would exclusivity for new games or IP outside the staple earners lead to a drop in revenue?

Gamepass will likely impact COD sales on Xbox, but they’ll be expanding platforms to Switch 2, and expecting an increase in MTX revenue from GP. Not to mention a meaningful increase in GP subscribers and GP revenue.
It might be a wash, honestly, becuase they're getting the lions share of mtx transactions on PS/Switch. I don't know numbers, obviously, but it wouldn't surprise me if that cut makes up for the lost gamepass sales
 

reksveks

Member
Will profit stay the same when games getting exclusive and cod and blizzard games go to gamepass tho? Bobby himself said he doesn't want games on a sub because of more revenue and profit so your numbers won't be true in the future.
We know that MS is a sub 10% of the total ABK revenue and currently the two biggest platform is Android (18%) and Apple (20%). GP will impact the full game sales on MS, and potentially MTX.
 

Fabieter

Member
It might be a wash, honestly, becuase they're getting the lions share of mtx transactions on PS/Switch. I don't know numbers, obviously, but it wouldn't surprise me if that cut makes up for the lost gamepass sales

Avb also had a better share with sony so that goes back to 70/30 at least for now.
 

Taycan77

Member
When this deal was announced it felt like a play by Microsoft to re-establish Xbox in the console market and beyond.

Today it feels more like a giant step towards becoming a 3rd party publisher. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if 5 years from now all MS titles are on PSN. Maybe even a version of Gamepass.

Either way, while this will undoubtedly help MS’s bottom line (if we write off the up front cost!), I don’t think it will have a significant impact on the business of Sony & Nintendo.
 
Last edited:

Godot25

Banned
Will profit stay the same when games getting exclusive and cod and blizzard games go to gamepass tho? Bobby himself said he doesn't want games on a sub because of more revenue and profit so your numbers won't be true in the future.
Yeah. But that would also mean that Game Pass grew. Which will add additional revenue (and profit) into Game Pass bucket :p
Also, ABK revenue is not leaning towards game purchases that much. For example in six months of 2023 they earned:
1,2 billion in product sales
3,37 billion in in-game monetisation/sub/other revenue

And that was period that Diablo IV came out. In six months of 2022 they earned
690 million in product sales
2,72 billion in in-game monetisation/sub/other revenue

And since in-game monetisation is not covered with Game Pass and they will still have full price revenue from PlayStation consoles and even sales on PC and Xbox (can we stop pretending that you will sell nothing if you put your games into Game Pass? As we saw with Starfield for example?) I think that Microsoft will be more than fine :p
 

FireFly

Member
People still sub to netflix and in my opinion the value isn't there anymore. Most people are too lazy to unsub so no just mo
Netflix has been through a period of subscriber loss which they managed to reverse by cracking down on password sharing. I think laziness is a much stronger factor when you keep the price the same. As then the cost is baked into people's budgets. As soon as you increase the price, you introduce a new cost, so force people to evaluate the value they are getting from the service.
 

Fabieter

Member
Yeah. But that would also mean that Game Pass grew. Which will add additional revenue (and profit) into Game Pass bucket :p
Also, ABK revenue is not leaning towards game purchases that much. For example in six months of 2023 they earned:
1,2 billion in product sales
3,37 billion in in-game monetisation/sub/other revenue

And that was period that Diablo IV came out. In six months of 2022 they earned
690 million in product sales
2,72 billion in in-game monetisation/sub/other revenue

And since in-game monetisation is not covered with Game Pass and they will still have full price revenue from PlayStation consoles and even sales on PC and Xbox (can we stop pretending that you will sell nothing if you put your games into Game Pass? As we saw with Starfield for example?) I think that Microsoft will be more than fine :p

Ofc Microsoft will be fine. Ms could buy a publisher every year and put every game for free for years and would still be fine but thats loss leading and should get ms problems tho.
 

BlackTron

Member
I love all the copeium - If it 'doesn't matter cuz MS is gonna mismanage' etc etc etc, then why all the begging and hoping for it to get blocked the last year and a half? Some of these folks are so transparent you can barely see them at all.

Your thought process implies the only thing anyone could ever care about is which company "wins". Here's a crazy idea...maybe it's because they don't want more gaming studios lost to mismanagement?
 

Snake29

RSI Employee of the Year
Quoted for unfortunate extreme accuracy.

MS's track record with what they've done with the devs they've purchased previously has been horrendous.

Not sure why anyone thinks things will be different with ABK, given that all the same people are in charge.

'How Microsoft killed Call Of Duty' articles on Gamespot coming in two or three years, I fear.

I would like to be pleasantly proved wrong on this... but not holding my breath.

Not only that. People really think MS is going to revive all these old IP's from ABK. For what...nostalgia won't help, nobody will care about these games. They can't even release their own propper games.

Have they ever revived games from Rare?
 

Fabieter

Member
Netflix has been through a period of subscriber loss which they managed to reverse by cracking down on password sharing. I think laziness is a much stronger factor when you keep the price the same. As then the cost is baked into people's budgets. As soon as you increase the price, you introduce a new cost, so force people to evaluate the value they are getting from the service.

I saw alot of people hating the price increase but keep the sub because they don't like the shows of other streaming services or because they don't want a change. Either way we as consumers always lose
 

RavenSan

Off-Site Inflammatory Member
Your thought process implies the only thing anyone could ever care about is which company "wins". Here's a crazy idea...maybe it's because they don't want more gaming studios lost to mismanagement?
Mate -- I'm not judging folks who didn't want the deal to go through. I get that. I'm laughing at folks who claimed to be against in on moral grounds (i.e. consolidation is bad) -- who are NOW saying 'who cares about the deal, doesn't matter cuz ms sucks anyway'
 

Ozriel

M$FT
If ms does a alot new ips than they probably have to free devs from cod which will probably lead to a drop of the yearly release. You can't see a case where a cod Maybe every three years won't drop the revenue significantly. New ips are even more risky, there is a reason to why avb became a cod factory.

You can also make new IPs without changing the COD cadence. Blizzard for example has a new AAA IP being finalized. And Kotick made a veiled reference to a new Guitar Hero title. You can also add more resources by hiring talent. Or freeing up one of the support studios.

Multiple ways to skin a cat

Not only that. People really think MS is going to revive all these old IP's from ABK. For what...nostalgia won't help, nobody will care about these games. They can't even release their own propper games.

Have they ever revived games from Rare?

Rare specifically aren’t interested in remaking their old IPs. They’re also having their most successful period ever with Sea of Thieves.

But even with that, it’s weird you cannot remember that Perfect Dark is a Rare IP being revived by The Initiative.
Or that Microsoft is reviving their lapsed Fable IP with Playground Games.
 

BlackTron

Member
Mate -- I'm not judging folks who didn't want the deal to go through. I get that. I'm laughing at folks who claimed to be against in on moral grounds (i.e. consolidation is bad) -- who are NOW saying 'who cares about the deal, doesn't matter cuz ms sucks anyway'

Ok yeah that doesn't make any sense. Don't be against the consolidation and then as soon as it happens pull a 180.

Deal is bad mainly for the same reason it was before fruition: MS sucks balls. Let's not flip from "it's bad because they suck" to "it doesn't matter because they suck". When you can't shift the goalpost, shift its effect I guess.
 
Nothing was really lost by Sony or PlayStation or fans. COD will continue to be on PlayStation as per their recent deal. I don't think anything else, especially in the near-to-mid-future lineup, is even remotely big enough to change the balance.
They lost marketing rights, they lost exclusive beta times and content that makes PlayStation the destination of choice for COD. You will have to pay $70 for COD on PlayStation. They lost former mascots. They lost a lot that will impact their revenue. After 10 years I still believe COD will be on PlayStation but the gaming landscape will be changed.
 
Come on you cowards, it’s not over - the gamer’s lawsuit has always been the most important…

More seriously, the new ‘it doesn’t matter anyway’ takes are a bit ridiculous, given the passionate anti-deal sentiment from the ‘other side’ over the past two years… No one’s buying that sudden pivot.
 
You have to be joking.

On mobile you never had any freedom in the first place. The major publishers increasingly drawing on mobile monetisation and game design practices has been a blight on pc/console gaming over the last decade or so.
The difference is that on consoles you still pay up front for the game and are then subject to additional monetization tactics on top of that.

Mobile games are typically downloaded and played for free. Actual free, not Gamepass "free". Free as in you pay nothing to download and start playing it. You can choose, of your own free will, to spend money, but the game is free for you to play even if you don't.

That's the difference between consoles and mobile. True freedom is being free to choose to pay or not.
 
Come on you cowards, it’s not over - the gamer’s lawsuit has always been the most important…

More seriously, the new ‘it doesn’t matter anyway’ takes are a bit ridiculous, given the passionate anti-deal sentiment from the ‘other side’ over the past two years… No one’s buying that sudden pivot.
Microsoft had to do some serious leg work to get this through which has helped a lot of companies get some great deals. The negativity to this deal was unwarranted IMO but its done now so they'll move on to something else Xbox related, I feel sorry for them.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom