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[MasterCornholio]

What is Microsoft really winning but more time? The chances of the CMA coming to another decision that isn't a block is pretty slim.

Doesn't the decision come out after the current deal expires?

I thought that would cause some issues.

 

[Varteras]

Is there a neutral lawyer that summarizes like idas but that is quicker?

I'm not a lawyer. But I did stay at a Holiday Inn!

 

[Edmund]

I take back what I said about American Girls being better looking than British girls.

Cheryl Ann Tweedy is a goddess.

 

[Sanepar]

Looks like there is new Hope for MS

 

[Three]

I have to wonder why the cma and ftc are against this deal
And the rest of the world are OK with it
I mean even China are ok with this deal
Usually ( correct me I'm wrong) the uk and usa always side with Ms
What a strange case
Anyway I'm happy this dumb drama will end in July

Because the markets are different in different countries. MS are strongest in the US and UK.

 

[adamsapple]

Looks like there is new Hope for MS

The Activision Lawyer was good.

 

[Bernoulli]

Idas

So, this is going to be like the E3 of video game lawsuits

- CAT appeal: July 24th (6 to 10)

- FTC administrative process: August 2nd (1 to 3 weeks)

Busy summer xD

 

[jm89]

Looks like there is new Hope for MS

In what way?

The main outcome of this hearing was for the CAT judge to set a date for the appeal, and it was after the expected closing date of the merger.

If anything it is confirmed that MS and ABK will need to have difficult conversations to get this renegotiated.

 

[Sanepar]

In what way?

The main outcome of this hearing was the CAT judge just set a date for the defence, and it was after the expected closing date of the merger.

If anything it is confirmed that MS and ABK will need to have difficult conversations to get this renegotiated.

Yeah but probably deal will go back to CMA, they can renegotiate and have a new deal(probably more expensive) and CMA will need to have a new decision.

 

[Bernoulli]

Yeah but probably deal will go back to CMA, they can renegotiate and have a new deal(probably more expensive) and CMA will need to have a new decision.

Like structural remedies?

 

[feynoob]

And I'm so here for it

Same brother.

 

[feynoob]

Quick tldr.
Been busy with work.

 

[Bernoulli]

Quick tldr.
Been busy with work.

 

[Sanepar]

People said that would take 9 months, they will got the appeal in only 2 months... So anything can happen.

 

[feynoob]

People said that would take 9 months, they will got the appeal in only 2 months... So anything can happen.

They need to overcome CMA decision.

There is a chance for a touch down, but it depends on how they play it out.

 

[DeepEnigma]

People said that would take 9 months, they will got the appeal in only 2 months... So anything can happen.

What happens in 2 months and how long will that process take?

People also said this was a slam dunk deal and it would go through without a hitch at one time.

 

[Varteras]

People said that would take 9 months, they will got the appeal in only 2 months... So anything can happen.

The 9 months is what the CMA and CAT cite as their maximum that they want an appeal decision to take. The average is about 5 months. It is faster than normal, for sure. However, there are hurdles yet.

For starters, the dates fall beyond the deadline for the deal. So MS and ABK will have to renegotiate if they want to continue this. The CAT more or less just handed ABK a free $3 billion. So now we wait and see what they do with that. ComCast and Tencent are on the hunt This also assumes ABK is even interested in selling anymore. Microsoft also needs to decide if they're willing to renegotiate a new deal that will be even more expensive and have a higher failure fee.

Then, even if the appeal succeeds, it goes back to the CMA. Who will then reassess the situation and come to a conclusion based on what the CAT tells them they need to look at. THIS is the process that could take years. As it has before. And it could ultimately still lead to the CMA saying no. Statistically speaking, the odds are very low that the CMA changes its position to be favorable to the deal.

Microsoft can offer new remedies in that time, but the CMA still prefers structural remedies. So they are likely to yet still demand significant divestment at the very least. Considering Microsoft has objected to any such notion, it is unlikely they will change that stance now. The types of divestments the CMA wanted would significantly neuter the impact of the deal and could very well cause Microsoft to lose money. There is no guarantee that they would get their money back for the value that, for example, Activision itself was worth in the deal.

The only thing we know for sure at this point is that MS and ABK will now be having a very serious conversation about how to proceed. Since the deadline happens well before the CAT comes to any decision on the appeal.

 

[Elios83]

People said that would take 9 months, they will got the appeal in only 2 months... So anything can happen.

I'm reading things better and it's not exactly like this.
The CAT won't have a verdict by July.
July 24th the trial starts, it is supposed to last up to 10 days, then the judge said he would like to have a verdict in the October/November timeframe. If the verdict is in MS's favour and this is completely up in the air, CMA will go back to it with their own timeline.
CMA wanted to drag things considerably longer.

So for now the only thing certain is that MS and Activision will have to negotiate a new contract.

 

[Heisenberg007]

The 9 months is what the CMA and CAT cite as their maximum that they want an appeal decision to take. The average is about 5 months. It is faster than normal, for sure. However, there are hurdles yet.

For starters, the dates fall beyond the deadline for the deal. So MS and ABK will have to renegotiate if they want to continue this. The CAT more or less just handed ABK a free $3 billion. So now we wait and see what they do with that. ComCast and Tencent are on the hunt This also assumes ABK is even interested in selling anymore. Microsoft also needs to decide if they're willing to renegotiate a new deal that will be even more expensive and have a higher failure fee.

Then, even if the appeal succeeds, it goes back to the CMA. Who will then reassess the situation and come to a conclusion based on what the CAT tells them they need to look at. THIS is the process that could take years. As it has before. And it could ultimately still lead to the CMA saying no. Statistically speaking, the odds are very low that the CMA changes its position to be favorable to the deal.

Microsoft can offer new remedies in that time, but the CMA still prefers structural remedies. So they are likely to yet still demand significant divestment at the very least. Considering Microsoft has objected to any such notion, it is unlikely they will change that stance now. The types of divestments the CMA wanted would significantly neuter the impact of the deal and could very well cause Microsoft to lose money. There is no guarantee that they would get their money back for the value that, for example, Activision itself was worth in the deal.

The only thing we know for sure at this point is that MS and ABK will now be having a very serious conversation about how to proceed. Since the deadline happens well before the CAT comes to any decision on the appeal.

One more point to add here:

As time goes on, things may get worse for MS in terms of acquisition. With the release of Starfield, Game Pass and xCloud users will only increase, at least for the period that the CMA will review next.

That may not be a favorable condition for Microsoft's xCloud market share.

 

[Bernoulli]

One more point to add here:

As time goes on, things may get worse for MS in terms of acquisition. With the release of Starfield, Game Pass and xCloud users will only increase, at least for the period that the CMA will review next.

That may not be a favorable condition for Microsoft's xCloud market share.

not only that but the value of activision increases too, with now the release of Diablo and now they are in a much better place than when the deal was made
ABK can easly ask for 90B

 

[Heisenberg007]

not only that but the value of activision increases too, with now the release of Diablo and now they are in a much better place than when the deal was made
ABK can easly ask for 90B

Yep, very true.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

not only that but the value of activision increases too, with now the release of Diablo and now they are in a much better place than when the deal was made
ABK can easly ask for 90B

If Diablo 4 sells big, I'm talking 10M+, that's a viable GAAS game with a huge customer base, that's worth billions alone.

 

[feynoob]

One more point to add here:

As time goes on, things may get worse for MS in terms of acquisition. With the release of Starfield, Game Pass and xCloud users will only increase, at least for the period that the CMA will review next.

That may not be a favorable condition for Microsoft's xCloud market share.

The market share option might not matter in this case.

The cma already made their decision. If they are going back on their decision, it will be either full strict remedy or strong remedy like EU, but with no 10 year plan.

 

[MasterCornholio]

The market share option might not matter in this case.

The cma already made their decision. If they are going back on their decision, it will be either full strict remedy or strong remedy like EU, but with no 10 year plan.

Divestment is also a possibility.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Divestment is also a possibility.

Won't happen. MS does not want to give up CoD because they know how much it can damage their competitor(s).

 

[demigod]

not only that but the value of activision increases too, with now the release of Diablo and now they are in a much better place than when the deal was made
ABK can easly ask for 90B

Diablo about to sell a shit ton.

 

[adamsapple]

Summary of today's events

 

[mansoor1980]

 

[feynoob]

Divestment is also a possibility.

Yup. It's a extreme remedy, which MS has to overcome.

 

[MasterCornholio]

Won't happen. MS does not want to give up CoD because they know how much it can damage their competitor(s).

I meant the CMA can ask for it. I agree that Microsoft won't accept that. Not sure if they can appeal again if that happens.

 

[feynoob]

Finally, you are happy.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Went from full blown confidence and juvenile PR to fingers crossed.

 

[GHG]

She still really needs that cashola huh?

 

[feynoob]

She still really needs that cashola huh?

How else can both of you guys afford the wedding cost?

 

[demigod]

All the Viet women do this, didn’t know Chinese does it too its so stupid.

 

[GHG]

How else can both of you guys afford the wedding cost?

It's the divorce that she needs to pay for.

 

[Mr Moose]

She's loving South Korea now but they are irrelevant to this deal going through.

 

[Tomeru]

Went from full blown confidence and juvenile PR to fingers crossed.

Thats not fingers crossed. Thats a heart (the way asians do it) or MONEY.

 

[IllegalLemon]

Yes, but temporarily, at least unless the CMA reverses its decision.

There is more to it.

They pay 3 billion when the deal is abandoned, which happens on July 18.

MS and ABK can get together and create a new acquisition agreement that essentially extends the deadline. However, it's not as simple as that comes with a few caveats:

• ABK will have to have their shareholders sign off on the acquisition one more time.
• ABK will now not settle for $3 billion. They will likely ask for $5B, $6B, or more as the next penalty.
• ABK shareholders will also likely ask for more than $95 per share now.
• Statistically, the chances of the deal going through (the chances of CAT making the CMA reverse their decision) is less than 5%. So someone at Microsoft will have to be the one to propose to the BoDs to buy ABK at more than $95 per share and pay them $6 billion in penalty if the acquisition fails (the chances of which is more than 95%). And ABK will have to convince their shareholders to say not to $3 billion now.
• And while all of this is happening, ABK cannot operate normally as they were independent. There may very well be a period where ABK does not have any marketing agreement with anyone (MS or Sony) for Call of Duty -- which will affect their revenue as well as their shareholders' decision.

And if they can't get the new agreement, the deal is off on July 18 and MS must pay $3 billion.

Honestly, I believe that Activision won't have a go at it again. They're nearing the end of a big marketing contract with their biggest cash cow, Sony, in 2024. Extending this entire ordeal , will trap ABK in a legal limbo for who knows how long, robbing them of the ability to pencil in newer, bigger marketing deals for the foreseeable future and losing tons of potential revenue. I don't they they'll have a go at it again to be honest. They've dealt with the legal dire straits(s€xual harassment lawsuits) they were into prior to the acquisition being announced, their financials have seen steady growth and they're in a better position than they've ever been before. They needed Microsoft to help fix things, with that issue now out of the way, I think ABK will drag this until the deadline and then back out because this, just isn't really going to do any good for them.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Honestly, I believe that Activision won't have a go at it again. They're nearing the end of a big marketing contract with their biggest cash cow, Sony, in 2024. Extending this entire ordeal , will trap ABK in a legal limbo for who knows how long, robbing them of the ability to pencil in newer, bigger marketing deals for the foreseeable future and losing tons of potential revenue. I don't they they'll have a go at it again to be honest. They've dealt with the legal dire straits(s€xual harassment lawsuits) they were into prior to the acquisition being announced, their financials have seen steady growth and they're in a better position than they've ever been before. They needed Microsoft to help fix things, with that issue now out of the way, I think ABK will drag this until the deadline and then back out because this, just isn't really going to do any good for them.

I'm on the same page. Their COD marketing agreement with Sony is about to end, and they can't sign a new one until this acquisition thing is over either way.

This appeal can extend this deep into 2024, and that's too much time wasted. If the CMA still says no at the end of the 2024, ABK will be in a tough position.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Thats not fingers crossed. Thats a heart (the way asians do it) or MONEY.

 

[SneakersSO]

Yeah but probably deal will go back to CMA, they can renegotiate and have a new deal(probably more expensive) and CMA will need to have a new decision.

Yeah - what new deal are you talking about? The CMA will not need to re-issue a verdict on a deal even if a completely new deal is signed between ATVI and MS as long as all the current configurations remain the same (No significant divestment). Nothing about the current deal is changing even when MS & ATVI re-sign a deal. MS is going to need to provide a solution for the Cloud SLC that the CMA finds agreeable, and nothing MS has done so far fits that bill, seemingly. This also puts the final outcome of the CAT review, a potential CMA re-assessment, and the FTC case which now has to be adhered to, well into next year.

I'm not sure why anyone who wants the deal to go through is suggesting that anything that happened today was more important that 'a deal was set'. MS clearly wanted the CAT review to happen before the expiration of the current Merger Agreement and didn't get it.

 

[DeepEnigma]

MS clearly wanted the CAT review to happen before the expiration of the current Merger Agreement and didn't get it.

The judge putting it just mere days outside that date was a cheeky dangle.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Yeah - what new deal are you talking about? The CMA will not need to re-issue a verdict on a deal even if a completely new deal is signed between ATVI and MS as long as all the current configurations remain the same (No significant divestment). Nothing about the current deal is changing even when MS & ATVI re-sign a deal. MS is going to need to provide a solution for the Cloud SLC that the CMA finds agreeable, and nothing MS has done so far fits that bill, seemingly. This also puts the final outcome of the CAT review, a potential CMA re-assessment, and the FTC case which now has to be adhered to, well into next year.

I'm not sure why anyone who wants the deal to go through is suggesting that anything that happened today was more important that 'a deal was set'. MS clearly wanted the CAT review to happen before the expiration of the current Merger Agreement and didn't get it.

Exactly. It's hilarious that some people think that this is a big win for Microsoft.

The comments on Reddit, especially, are just mind-boggling lol.

 

[Sanepar]

There is any chance CAT can approve the deal by itself without CMA?

 

[DeepEnigma]

Exactly. It's hilarious that some people think that this is a big win for Microsoft.

The comments on Reddit, especially, are just mind-boggling lol.

Not you, those commenters.

 

[Mr Moose]

There is any chance CAT can approve the deal by itself without CMA?

No. That's not their job.

 

[SneakersSO]

Exactly. It's hilarious that some people think that this is a big win for Microsoft.

The comments on Reddit, especially, are just mind-boggling lol.

Whats honestly sad is how tough it is to decipher the MS astroturfers from the full-on cultists among them.

I didn't really think their astroturfing operations were that wide and deeply embedded into online communities until I became colleagues with some of the folks in Xbox marketing who couldn't help but brag about it.

 

[SneakersSO]

There is any chance CAT can approve the deal by itself without CMA?

No, not at all. Its not what they do. There isn't even a significant guarantee CAT is going to kick this back to the CMA.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Whats honestly sad is how tough it is to decipher the MS astroturfers from the full-on cultists among them.

I didn't really think their astroturfing operations were that wide and deeply embedded into online communities until I became colleagues with some of the folks in Xbox marketing who couldn't help but brag about it.

HeisenbergFX4 brought receipts to mods in the past with them persuading "gaming journalists," as well.

Their astroturfing endeavors are well documented over the years. Insane, really how one's brag about it too. Like a cult.