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My Fanboy market analysis of HD consoles... and then some
- Thread starter MikeB
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Er... no, it doesn't work that way. The gaming industry is getting larger but there's nothing suggesting it's going to enlarge THAT much.MikeB said:
And why are you talking about the role of the Wii in there? Because there's no shame in coming third when the first two don't count? Even if you consider the Wii as part of the last generation, this doesn't mean its sales don't count. People buying console A will be less likely to buy console B, regardless of their horsepower, and this is what really matters when you're talking about market and sales.
Feel free to believe anything you want, but to me some graph telling that everything going on now is going to change substantially with no apparent reason sounds almost like this:
DeaconKnowledge said:
And to be honest, if you saw reactions of everyday people to the Wii before launch, combined with knowing the prices of the other systems, the price of the Wii, and various other factors, predicting success would be the only logical conclusion. The only difficult part was determining the extent of the success.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
besada said:
Don't be obtuse.
What i'm saying is that all of these consoles adhered to the long standing laws established and reinforced in previous generations, for example:
Pricing yourself out of the market will retard success (PS3)
Accessibility is more important than technology (Wii)
No system can ever be number one worldwide without Japan (360)
All huge arguments on GAF.
besada said:
Given the 360's headstart, rampant adoption by the hardcore in NA, and the market's response to the '$599 US Dollars' announcement? The only way one would assume that Sony was going to have the same level of success with the PS3 as the PS2 was if they totally bought into this whole 'brand loyalty' concept, something that gaming history has shown repeatedly does not carry over for more than two generations usually (if it exists at all).
Funny enough, since the PS3 launched the PS2 still sold many more units than the PS3 did worldwide too. Neat how that works. <3 <3MikeB said:
Actually, Wii seems to be the only console that has really unquestionablly beaten out PS2 (both side to side and compared to launch). And the way things are going, Wii's going to end up with a higher lifetime installed base too.
Sharp said:
NES was considered to be part of the 8-bit generation. The NeoGeo was considered to be part of the 16-bit generation (although internally the 68000 was 32-bit).
The NeoGeo probably had the most impressive games of the by then available consoles. But consoles back then were totally looked at as kid toys (a bit like the Wii now, don't get me wrong it's a fun console for the whole family just like a Snes could be). Both the Sega Megadrive and Snes were specced as such, designed to be cheap, not cutting edge. The NeoGeo was better specced probably for arcade purposes, it cetainly wasn't a cutting edge console back then.
The 68000 series CPU had been used for many years in systems like the Amiga, Atari ST and Macintosh, its Z80 is from the 70s. Basically the overall specs weren't better for gaming than an Amiga 500, which was released years ealier. So with lightyears ahead I don't agree, I do agree however the console included more expensive components than the 16-bit consoles Sega and Nintendo launched.
The whole generation clasifications thing IMO is pretty much subjective, what generation would a console be in if Apple released a new console in 2009, so 4 years after the introduction of the 360? Would it matter if it's specced worse than a Wii or better specced than a PS3? Just some food for thought.
Pureauthor
Member
MikeB said:
If you think the general perception of consoles has shifted into anything more socially refined, you're sadly mistaken.
The seventh generation of consoles is ongoing. If Apple decides to launch a new console and the current three retaliate, that means the eighth generation begins. If they laugh it off, the seventh generation continues. Not very difficult to understand.
So you're comparing PCs to consoles as evidence of their lack of "next gen" capabilities? Besides that, you're kind of cherrypicking by comparing it to the 16-bit consoles since the marketing materials at the time pretty clearly were comparing it to the NES. And I'm pretty sure the Genesis used virtually the same chipset as the Master System, but it was considered a generational upgrade.MikeB said:
Pureauthor said:
For the Wii, or the other consoles?
I've heard people discussing the Wii at wine tasting get togethers, at my grandparents, and from the sort of people (not exactly respectable) who typically look down on all things relating to videogames. The only time the 360 has come up in a social situation was when someone with an XBox360 left their headset out during a party, and got ribbed on the entire night.
*edit: I may have misunderstood you. While it does come up, it is something 'fun and enjoyable', nothing 'more socially refined'.
Pureauthor
Member
Cheez-It said:
Hm, good point. Where I am the Wii still gets treated largely like any other console, so my perspective's a bit skewed.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
The only people who seem to be disputing the long standing generational game divides seem to also be the ones either buying into Sony's "10 year PS3" plan, or those who argue that graphics define the generation, thereby excluding Wii.
I submit that these two groups are one and the same.
I submit that these two groups are one and the same.
professor_t
Member
Pureauthor said:
All of me wants to say "douchebaggery."
MikeB said:
You can see it happening already. In Europe the PS3 has been outselling the 360 since October last year. In the US the PS3 has outsold the 360 this year (although the difference isn't that big). All this despite a higher price and a games library that's still lacking at the moment. If Sony can get the price of the PS3 down again and improve the PS3's game library this year (which they probably will with upcoming games like Metal Gear Solid 4, LittleBigPlanet, Resistance 2, Home, etc) the 360s sales will definitely suffer. Every PS3 sold, is a 360 gathering dust on a store shelf. Once the PS3 becomes more popular, it could cannibalize 360 sales not only in Europe but also in the US.
Beer Monkey
Member
I love how analysts can fail miserably at predicting the current month (see April 2008) yet some people think they can predict the generation out to 2012.
manueldelalas
Time Traveler
Zenith said:
Not only that, it will make the PS3 pass 360s life numbers.
Sharp said:
The Amiga 500 (1987) was a low end home computer model, particularly this model without a default harddrive was mainly used for its games (for professional usage most people bought desktop versions). Most of the hardware such as the custom chips and processor were similar to the earlier Amiga 1000 from 1985.
The Amiga was once meant to become the ultimate games console (this was agreed upon with the investors with the promise it could be built up into becoming a full blown computer like the Coleco Adam), but due to the decline of the gaming market of the time, the project got overhauled and an innovative new pre-emptive multi-tasking operating system was written. So it became the world's first multi-media computer being capable of instant speech synthesis, video editing, cut & paste between productivity apps such as word processors, paint programs, spreadsheets, etc.
Long-term predictions are honestly probably easier than short-term ones, since unusual bumps will be balanced out over the long term by unusual lows and a good long-term analysis will therefore wisely not try to predict them. The Wii is the only one I can see giving them trouble, just because it's still hard to gauge its demand.beermonkey@tehbias said:
Yeah, because the largest chunk of the market obviously knows the specs of each machine perfectly, and wouldn't buy an outdated console in 2008! No wai! And the timeframe doesn't count, so if the Wii is last gen so are its sales, and then there's plenty of money for everyone to buy millions and millions of HD consoles for maximum profits! Yay!Pureauthor said:
...
Seriously.
People don't wake up thinking they could buy a more powerful system and throw the old one away, people are (and always have been) attracted by popular brands.
Last gen, everyone and their dog had a PS2, and everyone and their dog had GTA: the very largest part of the market is made by casual gamers who only buy what's currently hot. If you want the PS3 to skyrocket to 100+ millions you have to turn it into the hottest product of the moment first, hot games and price cuts aren't going to do anything better than what they did with the Gamecube last gen.
I mean, they're analysts and they're saying what I want to hear. How could they be wrong?beermonkey@tehbias said:
It'll take a dramatic uptake in PS3 sales for it to pass 360's significant American base though, worldwide even. The way things are going now it looks like an insanely close battle for a vastly distant second place.... basically a repeat of GC vs Xbox proportionately.ymmv said:
Also, PS3's US lead over 360 in Q1 was attributed largely to supply/availability issues on Microsoft's end. Now, they're running neck and neck again basically (and likely will continue to do so, until someone pricedrops).
:lolMikeB said:
Fuck me, people are still thinking this kind of shit is possible!? ...and MikeB, well, just, wow! :lol
A nice start to the weekend though, a good laugh, thanks!
The idea Sony is going to stick to a 10 year plan in the light of what's happened thus far is complete and utter bollocks! If anything, they could be the first out with a new system. SCE is fairing very poorly, especially compared to PS1/2 - positions shareholders expect them to grow from or at least maintain. And, they just aren't selling enough sw on PS3 or PSP, they've lost their main advantage, the one which made them so dominant, which is a very weak position to be in.
Panic is going to set in long before Sony has a chance of getting even a third of the way through this 10 year shit. The first 18 months has been disastrous, the system's practically dead in Japan, and they've taken a massive hit on the biggest selling title last gen, with it selling more on 360 which must be a really low blow for them. Along with Wii outselling their system multiple times despite the launch of this game, all should serve as a massive wake up call to how much the market's changed and just how bad a shape they're in.
Time to cut their losses imo, this generation's over, they need to start looking at the next if they want to try to get their leader position back, which I expect they do.
jarrod said:
At the current pace it will take years before Sony has overtaken MS in the US. It really depends on the 'canibalization factor' in my opinion. The 360 and PS3 are going after the same market demographics with products that are very similar . I can see a lot of people owning both a Wii and 360, or a Wii and PS3 but you won't find that many people who have both a PS3 and 360. The vast majority of folks will only buy one of those. So one PS3 sold is also one 360 that remains on a store shelf. That means that if the PS3 becomes more popular it could seriously impact 360 sales (and vice versa). Small changes can get pretty big rather fast.
Sony only has to improve its sales by 10 or 20% to seriously impact Microsoft's sales.
Xbox 360: 250,000 - PS3: 250,000
Xbox 360: 225,000 - PS3: 275,000 (+10% in sales)
Xbox 360: 200,000 - PS3: 300,000 (+20% in sales)
This also goes the other way of course. As I said before, the PS3 is now keeping up with the 360's sales despite a higher price and a weaker games library. That's very encouraging news for Sony because if they can improve on those weak points, sales should start to pick up at least. I don't really see how MS can do any better than they already have: they already got the better games library, Xbox Live is the better online experience, they've got the better online movie store, etc. It didn't make enough of a difference and Sony will improve on all of those this year. With their biggest hitting game Halo 3 already released, all they've got left are price cuts but that's a game Sony can play too.
I bet the 360 will get a price drop shortly before or after E3. I don't think Sony will follow immediately but sometime in October, November to spur holiday sales.
In my view it all comes down to the quality of the exclusives. If Sony can hit a couple of homeruns with titles that really matter to gamers (MGS4, LBP, R2, KZ2, GoW3, FF13) this year, I'm sure they can eat up the ww difference with the 360 pretty fast. What should worry Sony is that their hitting streak leaves a lot to be desired thanks to duds like Lair and Haze. MS has had far better luck with their own exclusives so far.
ziran said:
Your post is no better than the OP. You just spun it the other way around. The "Sony is going to crash and burn" mentality is just as stupid as the "Sony is going to be the comeback kid of forever" mentality.
The only thing certain this gen is that the Wii is going to dominate in numbers. The 360 and PS3 will be in a battle for a distant 2nd the rest of the way through.
Pureauthor
Member
Blitzzz said:
ziran did not say that Sony would crash and burn. He said the PS3 would, and thus far all the numbers seem to be agreeing with him.
Fuck knows. And after the non-existant GTA IV hardware bump for either console, well.. if GTA IV can't do it, what can? The only obvious and solid hardware bump we've seen as the result of a specific game release this generation was from Halo 3. (Unless you count Wii Sports - that bump still hasn't finished!)Zenith said:
Further substantial install base growth will only come by attracting the casual crowd, and right now they're all loving the Wii.
manueldelalas
Time Traveler
nib95 said:
He said 2009, not 2012
Pureauthor said:
The PS3 should have been implied but anyways...
What numbers agree with him? The ones that say worldwide hardware are currently beating 360 month to month? You can't crash and burn if you are still neck and neck with one of the competitors.
A clear direction will probably come after MG4 next month. It is the first major exclusive with a worldwide following.
manueldelalas
Time Traveler
Blitzzz said:
What numbers say PS3 is beating 360 month by month?
The more things go on, the more I think things will remain close for the bulk of the generation really. I agree with a lot of your points, but I honestly don't see much real advantage on Sony's end in terms of future library over 360 (1st party games are basically a draw and market forces are working against any true 3rd party HD exclusives, just windows). There's too many ifs really, and at this point I'd say price of entry is really the main stumbling block on both sides. Otherwise their merits seem pretty balanced actually for two such similar platforms.ymmv said:
I actually think we'll see both waiting until fall, neather seems too eager to drop or they already would have for GTA4 probably... I also wouldn't rule out bundles or SKU reshuffles in place of true pricedrops either.ymmv said:
The real exclusives will come down to 1st party product between them... like I mentioned earlier, the market just doesn't favor HD exclusivity. The best you can hope for on either side is really a long window (see: Bioshock) but in some cases that in itself might be "enough" (see: Lost Planet).ymmv said:
I also wouldn't expect FFXIII to realistically make this year in any market and KZ2 was already confirmed for 2009 I thought...
Pureauthor said:
Are they really? All doom and gloom aside, their market position is obviously weak but they are making headway against the 360, particularly in Europe where they have a healthy market. I would think that it's infinitely more sensible for them to squeeze whatever they can out of this generation before "calling it quits".
I think we all tend make the mistake of letting the relative dominance of the wii overshadow what is not exactly a thriving, but at least a passable performance on the part of the PS3, all things considered. While it certainly isn't meeting expectations, it doesn't mean the business should wilt up and die.
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