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Nintendo shares plunge 6% by Monday close after trading as low as -18%

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John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Ubisoft fell like 30% when they issued their proftit warning later last year... And no one cared/nothing changed externally. And they have a lot less cash reserves than Nintendo. Just sayin'
 

The Boat

Member
Yup, ever since I started investing in the stock, the ups and downs of this stock ended up making no sense to me. They rose because of ungrounded hype of Nintendo becoming a part of the Nikkei 225, and then plummeted when it didn't happen. On the morning that Nintendo announced all sorts of new games that fans wanted for all of their systems via a Nintendo Direct, the stock took a dive. I swear, Nintendo could announce 100% transparency with third party developers, a new F-Zero, Metroid, a lineup of new first-party IP, and just about everything else that GAF and the rest of their fans want, and the stock would still take a dip due to Nintendo not announcing some other short-sighted, irrelevant concept or another.
Buy on rumors, sell on news. There is next to zero connection between what fans want, what the company needs and what most investors want.

Right now, they want Nintendo to go mobile because they believe that's how they would make more money and considering we won't see good results for a while, that would be pretty much the only thing that would appease them.

Well, it's also to be seen what Iwata will say. We all know it's going to talk about mid-term, so we shouldn't expect everything, and, this time, I feel he'll deliver good things, but it's up in the air if his plans will be good or not, smartphones or not smartphones. That can be judged, I suppose.
I wouldn't expect anything major on the 30th, it's way too soon and these things take time, even if they've probably been mulling over it for a while. Unlike what some people think, Iwata does more than record directs and twiddle his thumbs.
 
D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
1. It has nothing to do with Nintendo? Wow, they should sue those trading card guys! It's a game Nintendo publishes and if they chose to make a digital version of the exact same thing, it would be indistinguishable from any other microtransaction-laden game aimed at children.

Other than being one of the rights holders, Nintendo has zero to do with the card game and its publishing.
 
It seems that the big disconnect is that these investors keep pouring short-term money into Nintendo, but Nintendo operates purely in the long-term.

You've got it backwards, bud. Game announcements -- the F-Zeros, Metroids, Marios -- they're all short term and, more than that, they're stuff that people already expect and are priced into the market. They're a continuation of a present strategy, a strategy that isn't working. When you announce things like that, and more importantly do not announce changes, investors reasonably second guess what you're doing, and that manifests itself in them selling off stock. Another way of putting it is that expectations of change are also priced into the market. When you don't deliver it, the price (usually) drops.
 

Oppo

Member
PS1 audio capabilities underrated. Games like Whiteout XL sounded phenomenal. It added a lot to the experience.

Rccw2KB.jpg
 

numble

Member
Ubisoft fell like 30% when they issued their proftit warning later last year... And no one cared/nothing changed externally. And they have a lot less cash reserves than Nintendo. Just sayin'
Ubisoft has made more money in the gaming business in the last 3 years than Nintendo. Just sayin'
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Ubisoft fell like 30% when they issued their proftit warning later last year... And no one cared/nothing changed externally. And they have a lot less cash reserves than Nintendo. Just sayin'

- 3 consecutive fiscal operating losses
- Maintaining their cash reserves is imperative; however, having 1 Billion US in operating losses accumulated for the past three years does not bring positive cash flow.

A change of strategy needs to be outlined and communicated as the above is not fiscally responsible.
 

Mudkips

Banned
- 3 consecutive fiscal operating losses
- Maintaining their cash reserves is imperative; however, having 1 Billion US in operating losses accumulated for the past three years does not bring positive cash flow.

A change of strategy needs to be outlined and communicated as the above is not fiscally responsible.

More importantly, Ubisoft can just shit out more games and turn shit around.

Nintendo's hole is twice as deep. No one bought the Wii U so shitting out more games isn't going to have as direct of an impact as it does for a software-only business. They have to sell the software AND the hardware. The hardware is shit, and they're stuck with it for 3-5 years. Even if they wanted to cut the Wii U off early and release a new console ASAP, that's just more R&D costs digging their hole deeper. If their next console sucks or gets leapfrogged by the PS5's and XBOX TWO's release timing, they're looking at Sega levels of trouble.

Nintendo has the 3DS (which is still strong), but the next handheld's success isn't guaranteed. They have to turn the Wii U around to at least GC levels of success, to do that they need to make the hardware appealing.
 

LocalE

Member
Nintendo wants a certain return on their investments. Going for a console as powerful as say, the PS4, or something appropriate for the year it is released, guarantees a huge increase in development costs and another loss per console sold.

I anticipate them going very cheap next time around.

They may go cheap, sure.
But why would moving up to a machine as powerful as a PS4 guarantee huge increases in dev costs anyways? They have already gotten over most of the hump of transitioning to HD. They are already producing games that are natively 720p and 1080p. The PS4 doesn't require, or really even enable, 4k resolution games of any kind of scope.
They could probably remake the original Mario Bros. game in 4K on a PS4 level machine, I guess. But that's because it's a single screen game with out a significant number of assets in play.
And if Sony is able to release such a machine in 2013 without "breaking the bank", then why would it have to be a huge loss-leader for Nintendo to do so sometime after that?

To be clear, I think they should continue to make the Wii U a more attractive purchase through continued software support and price cuts as they can. I don't think dropping the Wii U and putting out a PS4-level machine asap is a smart idea.
But if they did do that, I fail to see why it would be difficult or especially expensive for them to develop for.

I've seen such comments plenty of times and I don't get it. People mention that Nintendo just got used to HD development and then ask if one can imagine how difficult it would be for them to then move right to developing for a machine roughly equivalent in capability to the PS4.

The PS4 is not seeing games at resolutions above what they are already used to. I'm just wondering where these extra difficulties and huge expenses of development are supposed to come from?
 

mhayze

Member
The truth of it is that none of us (especially financial analysts) really know what would happen if / when Nintendo moves off their own hardware platforms. It's a risky transition to a new business model, and if you think about Nintendo's history of online, and keeping up with gaming trends overall, they are very bad at transitions and change, being an ultra conservative company.

I remember reading analyst commentary about how Apple was cannibalizing their MacBook sales with the iPad, before Steve Jobs said in an interview that he didn't care about that - he was moving to a new model, and that lost MacBook sales were more than made up for by new iPad sales. Very prescient, given that Macs now make up a small, small portion of Apple's revenue and more importantly, an even smaller portion of their market valuation (stock price).

Some companies are good at transitions, and other companies will go the way of the dinosaur when the climate changes (pardon my mixed metaphor). Time will tell.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
They may go cheap, sure.
But why would moving up to a machine as powerful as a PS4 guarantee huge increases in dev costs anyways? They have already gotten over most of the hump of transitioning to HD. They are already producing games that are natively 720p and 1080p. The PS4 doesn't require, or really even enable, 4k resolution games of any kind of scope.
They could probably remake the original Mario Bros. game in 4K on a PS4 level machine, I guess. But that's because it's a single screen game with out a significant number of assets in play.
And if Sony is able to release such a machine in 2013 without "breaking the bank", then why would it have to be a huge loss-leader for Nintendo to do so sometime after that?

To be clear, I think they should continue to make the Wii U a more attractive purchase through continued software support and price cuts as they can. I don't think dropping the Wii U and putting out a PS4-level machine asap is a smart idea.
But if they did do that, I fail to see why it would be difficult or especially expensive for them to develop for.

I've seen such comments plenty of times and I don't get it. People mention that Nintendo just got used to HD development and then ask if one can imagine how difficult it would be for them to then move right to developing for a machine roughly equivalent in capability to the PS4.

The PS4 is not seeing games at resolutions above what they are already used to. I'm just wondering where these extra difficulties and huge expenses of development are supposed to come from?

In general more power always equates to greater development costs. Getting up to speed on 7th gen performance will not somehow make creating 8th gen assets any cheaper....unless they create the same assets, do not take advantage of the hardware, and only offer it so that 3rd parties would bite.
 

AzaK

Member
I'm just worried that if Iwata underdelivers with nothing but half-baked, relatively minor changes to corporate strategy, many will lose faith in his abilities...and this could have repercussions.

I would think (And I'm not corporate export) that at some point he really needs to come up with the goods and that platitudes just won't cut it. Investors have seen the result of their Christmas software in Super Mario 3D World, and it's wasn't enough to push the units required. Unfortunately, I can see Nintendo using the whole "Look, we sold a million copies on a system with only 6 million units out there" argument to try and placate investors into thinking that if Nintendo just put our more good games, the sales will come.
 

royalan

Member
In another wild swing, Nintendo is presently up 3.43% about midway through the trading day. The roller coaster continues.

Not surprising. I think people are buying in in anticipation of Iwata's grand plan on the 30th.

People are expecting Nintendo to go mobile, or announce something equally drastic. If they fail to, the stock will resume crashing.
 

Raist

Banned
In another wild swing, Nintendo is presently up 3.43% about midway through the trading day. The roller coaster continues.

Isn't that what happens after a large drop? Some sort of sine wave-like fluctuation until it stabilized around a (lower than pre-drop) value a couple of days later?
 

nadam23

Neo Member
I see it continuing to rise some until the investors meeting. Then who knows what will happen. I would think it would drop if Iwata says that they aren't going to be doing smartphone game development. But then again, if they buy back the 5% of Yamauchi's stock won't that make the stock value rise?

I'm once again conflicted on whether to sell before the meeting next week. I was just about ready to sell when it was at $19 and then they announced the revisions and I lost over $6,000. I was pissed. I've gained some back the last few days though.
 

jeffers

Member
I see it continuing to rise some until the investors meeting. Then who knows what will happen. I would think it would drop if Iwata says that they aren't going to be doing smartphone game development. But then again, if they buy back the 5% of Yamauchi's stock won't that make the stock value rise?

I'm once again conflicted on whether to sell before the meeting next week. I was just about ready to sell when it was at $19 and then they announced the revisions and I lost over $6,000. I was pissed. I've gained some back the last few days though.

$6k? so thats like $10k in ninty stocks? Whether to sell depends on your belief in nintendo to actually do something other than filibuster :p Also guess it depends what others are thinking nintendo will do - I hope they arent expecting nintendo to go mobile still.
 

Gannd

Banned
I see it continuing to rise some until the investors meeting. Then who knows what will happen. I would think it would drop if Iwata says that they aren't going to be doing smartphone game development. But then again, if they buy back the 5% of Yamauchi's stock won't that make the stock value rise?

I'm once again conflicted on whether to sell before the meeting next week. I was just about ready to sell when it was at $19 and then they announced the revisions and I lost over $6,000. I was pissed. I've gained some back the last few days though.

Why did you buy the stock? What is your holding period?

I have been buying up shares with these price drops because I believe as a long term play, Nintendo is going to recover.
 
Didn't the 3DS turnaround happen after the sharp price drop resulted in an increased install base which made the thing more attractive to 3rd parties? Or am I just uninformed and seeing causality where there is correlation?
 
kinda off topic but about the whole Nintendo Fusion thing with a new handheld and gaming console being developed with the console being 4 teraflops GPGPU o_O
Does it bare any fruit?

Of course the console could be announced way into the future like 2016 but wouldn't this rumour start effecting potential investors
 

nadam23

Neo Member
Why did you buy the stock? What is your holding period?

I have been buying up shares with these price drops because I believe as a long term play, Nintendo is going to recover.

I own over 1500 shares of NTDOY. I bought over the course of the last 2 years in order to make some additional cash to pay off my house by this August (and to support Nintendo). All of the stock is long term. I bought in at an average of $15/share. So I am pretty dissapointed in the current price. A year ago I figured the price would have been over $20 by now.

Anyway, I have to sell by August since my wife is quitting her job to stay home with the kids, and in order for her to do that we can't have a house payment anymore. I really screwed up last week not selling when it was at $19. I have no doubt Nintendo will recover, but just not sure about by August. If it could get back in the $18 range by the meeting I would probably sell. That stock buyback is intriguing though. I would think the price would rise after that occurs.
 

seady

Member
I wonder if the Wii U would fare better if it waited a year and was released next to the PS4 and Xbox One - but launched with Super Mario 3D Land and Pikmin 3, follow closely with more titles such as Lego City Undercover, Rayman Legends, Super Mario Bros U, Donkey Kong etc with no down time.

The comparison between consoles would have aimed more on the software. People would say the PS4 and XOne has no games after launch, while the Wii U has constant stream of games.
 

MadOdorMachine

No additional functions
kinda off topic but about the whole Nintendo Fusion thing with a new handheld and gaming console being developed with the console being 4 teraflops GPGPU o_O
Does it bare any fruit?

Of course the console could be announced way into the future like 2016 but wouldn't this rumour start effecting potential investors

No. That info is definitely fake.
 
Well I would much rather Sony or Microsoft buy than them go to the mobile shit hole. If Nintendo can't get relevant again it will be a sad day. Still not buying a Wii u.
 

gemoran4

Member
I saw the thread that got closed about Nintendo's next console.

Extreme Tech has an article up about the rumored or bogus "Fusion DS" handheld and "Fusion Terminal" console, but there is not enough salt in the entire world to make a grain big enough....


http://www.extremetech.com/gaming/1...d-specs-of-nintendos-next-gen-consoles-spread

It feels fairly fake. The evidence seems flimsy (based on a domain name from a decade ago) and the specs feels like people made crap up "specifically with CODENAME: Jumpman, CODENAME: Barrel, etc).

Even if Nintendo is beginning working on the next gen system (which they definitely are but i imagine it's mostly R&D at this point) they probably haven't gotten to the stage where they've actually picked the specs out.
 

sörine

Banned
Didn't the 3DS turnaround happen after the sharp price drop resulted in an increased install base which made the thing more attractive to 3rd parties? Or am I just uninformed and seeing causality where there is correlation?
3rd parties, or at least Japanese 3rd parties, were already on board with 3DS. I believe Iwata said the price drop was more to keep them from leaving.

That's one of the problems with comparing 3DS and Wii U recovery scenarios. 3rd parties were always behind the former.
 
You've got it backwards, bud. Game announcements -- the F-Zeros, Metroids, Marios -- they're all short term and, more than that, they're stuff that people already expect and are priced into the market. They're a continuation of a present strategy, a strategy that isn't working. When you announce things like that, and more importantly do not announce changes, investors reasonably second guess what you're doing, and that manifests itself in them selling off stock. Another way of putting it is that expectations of change are also priced into the market. When you don't deliver it, the price (usually) drops.

I'm talking longer term than that.

Nintendo is the kind of company that has managed to last 124 (will turn 125 later this year) years because of thinking in the very long term. Going mobile would make them some fast money, as in a few months' or even years' worth (i.e., what investors are looking for), but it compromises the long-term (decade or more) profits or even future of the company.

If Nintendo feels that they can't grow any further or be profitable anymore in a given industry, nothing's stopping them from experimenting to find some other toy-related industry; they've done it before, when changing from hanafuda cards to mechanical toys, mechanical toys to electronic toys, and then electronic toys to arcade machines, and then arcade machines to video game consoles.

But then again, they are apparently experimenting with tablets by making educational games, so they might be testing prospects there, but again we wouldn't see anything, assuming anything comes from it, until the long term.
 
I see it continuing to rise some until the investors meeting. Then who knows what will happen. I would think it would drop if Iwata says that they aren't going to be doing smartphone game development. But then again, if they buy back the 5% of Yamauchi's stock won't that make the stock value rise?

I'm once again conflicted on whether to sell before the meeting next week. I was just about ready to sell when it was at $19 and then they announced the revisions and I lost over $6,000. I was pissed. I've gained some back the last few days though.

If you haven't sold yet, I don't see the point in doing so now.

Nintendo stocks will experience slight gains for the rest of the year, IMO. There's Mario Kart and SSB launching, and those are Nintendo's biggest movers. Then there's the E3 announcements, and who knows what they'll bring out then.
 
I'm talking longer term than that.

Nintendo is the kind of company that has managed to last 124 (will turn 125 later this year) years because of thinking in the very long term. Going mobile would make them some fast money, as in a few months' or even years' worth (i.e., what investors are looking for), but it compromises the long-term (decade or more) profits or even future of the company.

That platitude and conjecture requires citation. Nintendo was certainly not thinking of video games at the outset or even in the first 80 years of their existence, just as an example, nor could they possibly have planned for multiple decades, because the world changes. Nintendo has had to respond to market conditions and failures in both short and long term, and those responses have shaped who they are today.

You go on to later say that they may need to add or shift businesses, and there's where I agree and have said multiple times that they need to find additional revenue streams, they haven't always been a gaming company and there's no need to believe they always will (exclusively) be. Where I differ is that you apparently rule out mobile as being any part of that. I don't want to lump you in, but others rule out third party as being any part of that. But if they can't make what they're doing work (and I'm not ruling that out), then third party and/or mobile are the closest logical steps to what they're doing now. But maybe they try something completely different, or leverage what they know about software and electronics and try to get into (or create) a new business. Either way, whatever it takes, they have to get back to profitability for both the short and long term.

Not to go off on a digression here, but contrary to what is popularly stated around here as a latched-onto meme based on some absurd caricature, investors are not (only) interested in short term prospects. Institutional investors aren't universally vulture capitalists trying to "maximize wealth now and who cares if it kills the company later." That model is not sustainable. When they encourage change, it is most usually with the mid- and long-term interests of the company in mind (they can't predict reality 100 or even 20 years into the future, but they certainly want to position the company beyond the next 3 to 5), while obviously trying to mitigate losses in the near term if only to ensure there's a mid- and long-term where the company still exists. No company and no investor wants to repeatedly go through chaos and upheaval, so acting like investors just want to make money now and forget the consequences later is simply misguided.
 
I read on some other forums there was some rumor originating on here about a January direct, I cant find it and really dont know where to ask where it is anyone have a link?
 
I don't blame them for not jumping on the VR train when they have this sitting in their back catalog. Hell, they could back Oculus tomorrow, and there'd be an overwhelming flood of "Durr hurr Virtual Boy Mark 2!"

And yet there wasn't when the 3DS was announced.

What a difference 5 years makes.
 
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