What proof do you have of that? The last I heard, he had lost access to NPD numbers.
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November 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 6th
What proof do you have of that? The last I heard, he had lost access to NPD numbers.
It depends on how many those $99 bundles they produced but realistically No. MS would have to be down significantly for that to be true. When was the last November, outside of launch, that MS was below a 1M.
I think that he should clear his position.
Because he said that he hasn't access anymore to NPD datas but he's definetly making statements with a tone as if he knew something.
Saying things clearly will avoid useless attacking from people who can't discuss in sales threads.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I just figured CQ very strongly felt PS4 and X1 would be down. I didn't get the idea that he/she knows anything. I mean, this was the same sort of vibe CQ had last year too, if I am not mistaken. It is just CQ's opinion on the matter.
CosmicQueso
Member
Alright, I'm out.
I have a take on the market that isn't popular. I get it. I hope I'm wrong, would love to see growth and everything doing great everywhere.
See you in December, SalesGAF.
EDIT: No drama. It's all good. Happy Holidays all!
I have a take on the market that isn't popular. I get it. I hope I'm wrong, would love to see growth and everything doing great everywhere.
See you in December, SalesGAF.
EDIT: No drama. It's all good. Happy Holidays all!
DriftingSpirit
Member
Wait, wat?
Hey, some of us appreciate it! (I was just asleep.)
You'll be our favorite fakegamer with fake info who spreads fake news just because you're a *insert object* fanboy!
Go to the other NPD thread, find his posts. You'll see.
Why though?
I get that some people might have called you out a bit too forcefully, and that's definitely a shame as we're here to have an enjoyable conversation, but why not entertain the discussion and explain your train of thought which at times seems to be going against the available data?
I'd be really sorry to see you leave, but if that's your choice I wish you a great Holiday period and a merry Xmas!
Nothing he's said is against any available data because there is no available data. People are just quoting PR (for a single weekend, and obfuscated behind WW) at him which has nothing to do with an entire months worth of sales. If everything is down and, potentially, down a substantial amount for the month then the PR for "Best BF Evar" is not somehow a counter to his point/information. If they sold +100 units on BF over last years but then for the month came up -10000 short, the statements all remain true.
Also for some reason his bit on the 3DS's surge was met with... resistance. (This is like the only part that's actually even been corroborated, Zhuge also says the 3DS is waaaaay up.)
to be fair there is no real evidence to say ps4 is down yoy besides sony deciding not to say anything. it is very possible, but if you are going to say existing pr is misleading then you can't use non existent pr as proof to support your argument either. pr is at least some sort of data
DriftingSpirit
Member
Oh, I know about that. I was just looking at "see you in December" when it is already December lol. Just goofing around.
spiderman0616
Member
I'm still trying to figure out why it matters. Aren't most consoles down yoy by this point in their life cycles? Sales numbers can't grow forever, but that doesn't mean the console isn't doing well. Sony has the law of large numbers working against it as they sell more and more PS4s, right?
I'm not using non-existant PR to make my case.
I am using: sales centralization around BF to say that the PR is meaningless for the month and does nothing to counter his discussion.
I'd sooner just note that no one is talking about anything being up aside from Pokemon, the 3DS, and Nintendo's brand, lol.
Yes, this year as Queso has said, its expected to be down by normal trends. Queso may know more numbers and think that the drop is more severe than would be normal.
Bruno MB
Member
The lack of numbers is taking its toll on some sales age members.
I have the bad feeling that in a not too distant future as retail market becomes more irrelevant for video game companies and console market keeps shrinking or remaining stagnant as best case scenario, we will be getting even less NPD data, so we'd better get used to a future without barely any sales data.
We have been very lucky to have somebody like Creamsugar for so long, it is incredible how such a big community has been relying on just one person during all these years. Now we recently got another source, Aquamarine, no idea for how long, but we can't expect there will always be somebody willing to leak sales data.
I have come to terms with the fact that NPD threads will probable be like Pal Charts threads.
I have the bad feeling that in a not too distant future as retail market becomes more irrelevant for video game companies and console market keeps shrinking or remaining stagnant as best case scenario, we will be getting even less NPD data, so we'd better get used to a future without barely any sales data.
We have been very lucky to have somebody like Creamsugar for so long, it is incredible how such a big community has been relying on just one person during all these years. Now we recently got another source, Aquamarine, no idea for how long, but we can't expect there will always be somebody willing to leak sales data.
I have come to terms with the fact that NPD threads will probable be like Pal Charts threads.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Especially when last year was huuuuuuge. Some of the best holiday numbers ever. Being down really isn't a big deal. They can still put up respectable numbers.
spiderman0616
Member
I usually stop caring about NPD once I feel like the install base for the console I prefer that generation is big enough to support more software for the rest of the time I own it. PS4 is a lock in that department, Xbox One less so, but will have software support until next gen. Reading the NPD threads is always fun, but for gaming to remain healthy, we should all be rooting for all systems to do well.
I think the original Wii made people a little gun shy. It sold like gangbusters for months and months and should have had enough units out on the market for developers to be interested, but that just didn't end up being the case unless the developer was Nintendo.
While I love NPD threads and seeing how things sold. I'm more attracted to the WW number. PS4 is at 50 million and will probably be around 53 mil by years end. They are fine
DriftingSpirit
Member
Right, I just want to see if PS4 can hit 100M+ at this point.
PR -is- data, to some extent.
When Sony says "best Black Friday week in the history of Playstation", I take it as a WW data point, sure. But with the size of the US as a market, I see no reason why the US would have massively underperformed while rotw would have overperformed to compensate in kind, when we have again data to indicate (via infoscout and Amazon, which is valid for its own sales) that the PS4 (slim) likely won Black Friday.
We also know that both PS4 and XB1 were very much in demand and top selling items during that period, and that spending rose nearly 10% yoy on BF overall (more shoppers, slightly less spending per shopper on avg).
Now I know you are pushing the story that sales outside of BF are being exceptionally depressed in November, which would in turn counter the extra sales made during BF.
We do not really have indication of that yet outside of the UK (refering to a recent article) where BF is a relatively recent thing afaik. BF is not a new thing in the US, which is why deals start trickling down days, if not weeks before BF, and continue the following week in many cases.
The other elements we have of course are the release of the PS4 Pro and its pre orders, its ranking on Amazon for both pre orders and on release (1 vendor, but not an insignificant one), report of good sales from Abdiel, etc.
So again, while of course nothing is certain, and the PS4 may be down yoy, we see elements that ought to encourage a certain level of (modest) optimism.
Let's not make things up.
Queso used to have access to numbers, but do not anymore afaik.
Given his stance though, many have asked if he has data to refer to, and he has implied that he does not.
Edit: looks like Cosmic went through and deleted every single one of his posts in the prediction thread...
I don't get it.
Take care though Cosmic, and hope you get to enjoy the Holidays! (or at least some nice time off if the period doesn't do it for you)
slavesnyder
Member
Take care, space man.
Schöne Ferien.
ethomaz
Banned
Well if it is to guess over "best black friday ever for playstation" take in consideration somethings.
- Even BF is becoming big WW for some years already... last year MS said they had "record sales at Black Friday WW"... this year MS didn't say that because of course they sold less WW than last year.
- Sony the opposite said this year was the "best black friday ever fro playstation"... that means even bigger than last year.
I can't see how Sony sold way less than last year in US when they break record WW... BF was already a thing outside US last year and they break it.
I can see US down for PS4 but not 20-30% down.... 1400k is the minimum I see for PS4 this November.
- Even BF is becoming big WW for some years already... last year MS said they had "record sales at Black Friday WW"... this year MS didn't say that because of course they sold less WW than last year.
- Sony the opposite said this year was the "best black friday ever fro playstation"... that means even bigger than last year.
I can't see how Sony sold way less than last year in US when they break record WW... BF was already a thing outside US last year and they break it.
I can see US down for PS4 but not 20-30% down.... 1400k is the minimum I see for PS4 this November.
Liabe Brave
Member
Except that the only sales data we do have shows that there has been very little centralization to Black Friday in the US. The NPD holiday shopping bag report showed basically the same sales spike for the week as in 2015.
BF centralization is (so far) an unsupported assumption you've made.
The problem with this is that the "year 3 is the peak year" pattern was only normal two generations back and more. Last gen, both Microsoft and Sony had NPD results that didn't peak until later years. So a decline for them in 2016 is not overwhelmingly probable. (Though of course, neither is it impossible.)
The damn 3DS...EVERY TIME I get screwed on predictions because of it!! lol
Because last gen essentially had two cycles with Wii then 360(PS3). PS4/XB1 is following a more traditional 5-6 cycle versus 360/PS3, and is proving dramatically more frontloaded than any previous cycle. That's probably partially why we're getting Pro and Scorpio to try and extend the cycle and blur generational transition.
Obliterator
Member
As someone who has spent more than the last 10 years talking and discussing gaming industry sales data, it is so depressing what it has become. Less and less information every day and companies doing everything they can to hide it.
Fucking sucks
Fucking sucks
Agreed with the sentiment but these companies/publishers have a lot to lose by having any negative news, such as lower sales figures leak out to the general public. Plus, retail is no longer representative of the full picture. It also does not help that unlike Hollywood game publishers do not get a second or third bite at the apple. The gaming industry needs to put forth the impressions that certain franchises are massive, independent of external factors like quality and competition.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Hope we get so see some 3DS numbers. Wonder how those will develop once Switch is out there.
Btw, I don't like Chobel's new tag, the old one was much better.
Btw, I don't like Chobel's new tag, the old one was much better.
Obliterator
Member
Oh I 100% understand it. It's just depressing. We are watching a community die right in front of our eyes, as there isn't near as much to discuss as there used to be.
Combine that with sales not even always being representative over whether a game is a success or not due to in the introduction of DLC and micro transactions and I get it.
But it's entirely possible in the next couple years for the gaming sales community to be almost over. Maybe the big dogs in the corporate world like that but it's sad as hell, and a lot of great analysis has been done over the years.
I agree, the writing is on the wall. I only started doing SalesGAF in 2014, was mostly on CAG prior to that, but the changes are apparent in more ways than one. These threads use to be massive, we are lucky now to get more than a few hundred responses.
Mister Megative
Banned
ethomaz
Banned
Are they? More or less than 20%???
Welfare
Member
CoD down nearly 50% http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/09/nove...ales-fell-nearly-50-percent-analysts-say.html
Another source in that article says 51%, so that would mean IW sold 2.257m
Another source in that article says 51%, so that would mean IW sold 2.257m
hanspampel
Banned
close to 50% could be physical stabdard sku only
51% could be including bundles and special/limited edition skus
both numbers could be correct and not contradict each other
ethomaz
Banned
That almost the same happened in UK.
PS. BTW I think CoD deserves it own thread because how big the game is.
Mister Megative
Banned
1- Yes, that much is certain.
2- Not sure, trying to get confirmation of actual numbers.
Welfare
Member
Thought I included bundles. -51% including bundles would then be 2.38m
ethomaz
Banned
Thanks.
If the combined drop is over 20% then it is really something atrocious but if it is less than 20% then I think it will be like UK that is bad but not that bad.
My prediction was close to flat but after UK numbers I was thinking about 20-25% drop for XB1 and 5-10% for PS4.
Mister Megative
Banned
Whatever it is, I'm not sure why anyone would worry. As Queso said before people starting haranguing him, a drop YoY is quite normal over the 4th holiday. I'm surprised people thought both would be up, honestly.
hanspampel
Banned
and 4.6m with -49% drop would result in 2.35m
looks plausible to me
so call of duty opend below 2.4m. i think that is save to say
slavesnyder
Member
We're too Mositive.
Mister Megative
Banned
You da best fam.
Software was weaker than last year too.
Mister Megative
Banned
Poor comparison. Last year was Battlefront and BLOPS3 in November. Far more compelling bundles.
Yeah i was supporting your point about console being down. This year we didn't have compelling games( sales wise ) like 2015. Last year Blops 3, Battlefront and F4 did amazing. Thank god this year there is Pokemon.
As Cosmic noted before the hordes descended, 3DS has been re-surging rather surprisingly and the Pokemon release and its rather shattering opening have just catapulted it to even higher highs.
Its probably the only hardware that is up YoY.
Welfare
Member
Call Of Duty Black Ops 3: 4,890,000 (w/bundles)
PS4: 2,140,000 (Standalone: 1,889,000 | Bundles: 251,000)
XB1: 1,935,000
360: 502,000
PS3: 313,000
Call Of Duty Infinite Warfare: 2,396,000 (-51%)
Barely above total PS4 sales for Black Ops 3. Exclude last gen and the drop is 41%. First week sales could have been below 1m.
PS4: 2,140,000 (Standalone: 1,889,000 | Bundles: 251,000)
XB1: 1,935,000
360: 502,000
PS3: 313,000
Call Of Duty Infinite Warfare: 2,396,000 (-51%)
Barely above total PS4 sales for Black Ops 3. Exclude last gen and the drop is 41%. First week sales could have been below 1m.
FinaruDensetsu
Member
This is why you never doubt Cosmic. He's pretty much always right about this stuff.
FO4 as well.
Mister Megative
Banned
slavesnyder
Member
Right now, Microsoft engineers are trying to figure out how to bring down the BOM.
A price fight with sony dictating the rules is ugly. Scorpio is still far away and won't help getting all these damn families on board anyway. And those should be the main theme for the upcoming season.
Expecting an XboxOne S Arcade without UHD.
A price fight with sony dictating the rules is ugly. Scorpio is still far away and won't help getting all these damn families on board anyway. And those should be the main theme for the upcoming season.
Expecting an XboxOne S Arcade without UHD.