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[jvm]

There are several problems with retail and digital comparisons.

• Digital products often sell for lower prices, so units can stay the same while revenue drops.
• Digital products sales results are often reported without regard to regions, so knowing what's going on in the U.S. can be hard to discern from what's going on the UK or Germany or...
• Most companies are relying on survey results for their digital reporting. We know the digital market is supported in part by whales, and survey methods are likely to have large errors as a result.
• Digital sales aren't broken out by platform, generally, so we can't know whether the Xbox 360 is giving more digital revenue than the PS3 for a company like Activision.

 

[Frankfurter]

I was just about to purchase a Vita but this is very worrisome. Will it be dropped like a hot piece of coal in the near future?

The one thing that sure will be dropped in the very near future is PS Vitas price (unless Sony wants it to die).

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Not surprised at Lego Batman 2. It's not just the Batman name. The Lego games are good games and they've been getting better.

Batman 2 got great reviews and word of mouth as being the most "for adults as well as kids" game in the series yet. It's suitable for a wide audience.

It sold 450k on SEVEN different platforms.

Is 450k that good? 450k is still 450k I suppose.

 

[Subitai]

When I go on XBL I usually see 25%-%50 of my friends streaming something rather than playing a game. I think this is part of the reason software sales are down along with companies pushing more of their big releases to Oct.-Dec.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Nintendo wants to make digital sales figures available to the public.

Source.

Sure, but what I'm talking about isn't really pure digital sales.

It sold 450k on SEVEN different platforms.

Is 450k that good? 450k is still 450k I suppose.

Lego games tend to have longer legs though. 450k upfront isn't bad at all for the franchise.

 

[TheListener]

It sold 450k on SEVEN different platforms.

Is 450k that good? 450k is still 450k I suppose.

I don't think they're that expensive to make and they are annual cadence. They are gaining huge efficiencies with their production plan for the lego games.

 

[The Antitype]

Damn, Future Soldier is selling at a good clip.

Not setting the world on fire, but two months straight in a nice position on the top 10. Could be a slow burn title based on word-of-mouth for the multiplayer?

 

[Father_Brain]

The one thing that sure will be dropped in the very near future is PS Vitas price (unless Sony wants it to die).

With the software lineup being what it is, it's far, far from certain that a price drop would increase sales enough to make it a viable platform in the eyes of retailers and third parties, and it would result in a lot of financial pain that Sony can ill afford right now.

If Dalthien is right about a price drop this summer being the only way retailers will even consider ordering significant quantities for the holiday, it may be the least bad option Sony has right now, though.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

I was just about to purchase a Vita but this is very worrisome. Will it be dropped like a hot piece of coal in the near future?

I can see sales dropping lower than 50k over the next few months, and with Japan showing similar numbers...it's worrying times.

 

[metalslimer]

The question becomes with the platform selling this badly, who in their right minds is going to make non ported software for it. The 3DS had the benefit of Japanese sales success and Nintendo franchises to drive it there. Vita's Japanese sales are abysmal. It's honestly up to Sony to save this platform with their own first party software which is a scary thing considering Sony's 1st party games have never really been huge system sellers especially their PSP efforts.

 

[Pranay]

There are several problems with retail and digital comparisons.

• Digital products often sell for lower prices, so units can stay the same while revenue drops.
  [*]Digital products sales results are often reported without regard to regions, so knowing what's going on in the U.S. can be hard to discern from what's going on the UK or Germany or...
• Most companies are relying on survey results for their digital reporting. We know the digital market is supported in part by whales, and survey methods are likely to have large errors as a result.
• Digital sales aren't broken out by platform, generally, so we can't know whether the Xbox 360 is giving more digital revenue than the PS3 for a company like Activision.

Two very important which genreally people seem to forget while commenting on numbers.

Was really disappointed to see just 340k numbers for VF5 FS

 

[Opiate]

@Opiate

did you read the article?

Yes.

 

[Plinko]

The question becomes with the platform selling this badly, who in their right minds is going to make non ported software for it. The 3DS had the benefit of Japanese sales success and Nintendo franchises to drive it there. Vita's Japanese sales are abysmal. It's honestly up to Sony to save this platform with their own first party software which is a scary thing considering Sony's 1st party games have never really been huge system sellers especially their PSP efforts.

That's the major issue right now for the Vita. When the 3DS started tanking right off the bat, Nintendo came out hard at the next E3 and showed games that wouldn't be out for over a year.

Sony showed barely anything, and not even a clip from what is arguably going to be the biggest franchise on the Vita (CoD). There aren't even rumors of big games coming, are there?

 

[PopcornMegaphone]

After the way Sony treated Vita at E3 I believe they have already tactfully given up on the platform. I was seriously blown away by how they spent 5 minutes on Vita and the majority of their time on a system in its twilight (PS3). I think anyone hoping for a big Vita push from Sony are going to be sorely disappointed.

 

[Pachterballs]

posted in page 2 and Ive been busy since. Has there been updated Dragons Dogma numbers at all?!!?!?

btw Looked at that TOP10 and nothing on there I would want to play.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

The question becomes with the platform selling this badly, who in their right minds is going to make non ported software for it.

The way it's selling now, even ports are becoming a questionable endeavor. Vita could very well just get squeezed out of multiplatform planning, like Gamecube progressively was.

It might already be happening (ZOEHD).

 

[StoppedInTracks]

So if Vita sold 75k in a 5 week month that means 15k per week.

In the USA.

Not that good

 

[Father_Brain]

The way it's selling now, even ports are becoming a questionable endeavor. Vita could very well just get squeezed out of multiplatform planning, like Gamecube progressively was.

It might already be happening (ZOEHD).

With a handful of exceptions (Fox Engine, Capcom fighters) and despite Sony's attempts to pitch the system to developers as another HD platform, I don't see any indication that it was ever seriously included in multiplatform planning.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

I think we are past the time of redemption. I'll just enjoy mine, keep it but for the future, pay attention to trends in the marketplace.

 

[FishyJoe]

Does Sony give retailers any additional margin for selling Vita hardware? I'm thinking no. So if retailers can't make money off hardware sales and people are buying games from the digital store, the retailer can't make the same profit on the vita as other systems. Which means back shelf for Vita.

 

[metalslimer]

08/07 North America Sound Shapes
08/28 North America Madden NFL 13
09/11 North America Ragnarok Odyssey
09/17 North America FIFA Soccer 13
10/01 North America Silent Hill: Book of Memories
10/23 North America PlayStation All-Stars Battle Royale
Smart As
Street Fighter X Tekken
Super Monkey Ball: Banana Splitz
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward
10/30 North America Assassin's Creed III: Liberation
LEGO The Lord of the Rings
Need for Speed Most Wanted (Criterion)
Persona 4: Golden
Spy Hunter
11/20 North America Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed

There isn't single exclusive game coming out until September 11. Where the hell is Killzone Vita or for that matter any more Sony 1st party games?

Does Sony give retailers any additional margin for selling Vita hardware? I'm thinking no. So if retailers can't make money off hardware sales and people are buying games from the digital store, the retailer can't make the same profit on the vita as other systems. Which means back shelf for Vita.

I have to imagine they struck somewhat of a deal with retailers for allowing all games to be bought on the digital store for cheaper. Otherwise, yeah retailers probably won't put too much faith in it.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

The one thing that sure will be dropped in the very near future is PS Vitas price (unless Sony wants it to die).

But if they take any longer to drop it, it will be time for the WiiU and I think more folks would pick a WiiU over the Vita for around the same price.

 

[FishyJoe]

But if they take any longer to drop it, it will be time for the WiiU and I think more folks would pick a WiiU over the Vita for around the same price.

Or a 7 inch iPad or Nexus 7.

 

[Stealth20k]

Yes.

thoughts?

 

[metalslimer]

Or a 7 inch iPad or Nexus 7.

This is a real issue when your main selling point of your handheld is being the hot technical gadget of the time. That can't really work anymore with tablets and phones coming out so quickly and competing with each other. The PSP was a technical marvel at the time and wasn't really surpassed by a mobile device for a long time. With the advent of smartphones, you can't really win the tech race in the portable space.

 

[Opiate]

thoughts?

Again, it seems plausible, but makes no attempt at confirmation and also doesn't directly address consoles specifically. EA, for example, has large stakes in "digital distribution" for iOS and PC. Are those included in these totals?

 

[OldJadedGamer]

This is a real issue when your main selling point of your handheld is being the hot technical gadget of the time. That can't really work anymore with tablets and phones coming out so quickly and competing with each other. The PSP was a technical marvel at the time and wasn't really surpassed by a mobile device for a long time. With the advent of smartphones, you can't really win the tech race in the portable space.

I bought both an original DS and PSP at launch but skipped the 3DS and Vita since I'm content with wasting time playing portable games on my phone/iPad. The market has drastically shifted.

 

[donny2112]

One thing I'm wondering about, how will NPD count retailer download copies of coming 3DS (and eventually Wii U) games like NSMB2?

They will not have visibility into those sales, so they cannot count them.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

So if Vita sold 75k in a 5 week month that means 15k per week.

In the USA.

Not that good

not like any games came out for it last month of note (that I can think of). what would motivate people to buy it over the summer, you know?

 

[donny2112]

We know the digital market is supported in part by whales,

See, I did not know that. This is good information. Thanks, jvm!

 

[Santiako]

I bought both an original DS and PSP at launch but skipped the 3DS and Vita since I'm content with wasting time playing portable games on my phone/iPad. The market has drastically shifted.

You are just old and jaded.

 

[metalslimer]

not like any games came out for it last month of note (that I can think of). what would motivate people to buy it over the summer, you know?

Uh.. I know it's a niche game to the general market, but Gravity Rush and Resistance I believe both came out in the last tracking period. It's not like Vita has a large amount of games that are big to call those two low profile.

 

[Father_Brain]

not like any games came out for it last month of note (that I can think of). what would motivate people to buy it over the summer, you know?

There are/have been no retail releases for Vita in between LEGO Batman 2 (June 19) and Madden (August 28). Literally none in two months and nine days.

 

[Four_Chamber]

There are/have been no retail releases for Vita in between LEGO Batman 2 (June 19) and Madden (August 28). Literally none in two months and nine days.

That is just awful. The sad part about Vita sales is the 15k a week int the US is just a smidge ahead of the pace at which they're selling in Japan. That's just awful. We'll see where they're at by the end of the year. I'm curious to see just how much they're going to miss their 10M forecast by.

 

[shinobi602]

I bought both an original DS and PSP at launch but skipped the 3DS and Vita since I'm content with wasting time playing portable games on my phone/iPad. The market has drastically shifted.

Interesting. Are the bitesize experiences on Iphone/Ipad satisying over the core experiences on DS/PSP?

Besides maybe Infinity Blade, I can't find anything comparable to the RPGs and adventure games on Nintendo/Sony's handhelds on the phones.

 

[boiled goose]

I think most vita hardware is sold digitally so it is not tracked by npd.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

They will not have visibility into those sales, so they cannot count them.

Why not? They're most likely going to have physical packaging and be sold by Best Buy, Gamestop, Amazon, Wal-Mart and others.

 

[Version 3.0]

Maybe Nintendo doesn't want to get people into the habit of thinking that $99 is an acceptable price point for a console? Then again this is the end of the generation so I don't know.

That was Nintendo's stance early this gen, when they announced there would be no Player's Choice line of budget games. They thought that simply not lowering prices would make customers accept the higher ones (rather than just not buying).

They were clearly wrong, and have backpedaled and released a budget line (far too late), so I suppose they'll get around to dropping the Wii price further.

The funny thing is, this gen, system prices have stayed higher longer than ever before. The only one that didn't hold its value well was the Wii, because the software support was so poor.

 

[Vermillion]

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/pachter-vita-will-rob-nintendo-market-share/03008

Every comment he made about it seemed to suggest he thought it would do nearly as well as 3DS.

Not all:
www.destructoid.com/pachter-psp-was-dead-on-arrival-psp2-will-fail-189051.phtml

 

[SapientWolf]

I think it's disingenuous to suggest apparently poor sales of a game are due to it having x amount of extra digital sales.

I really, really doubt they account for more than 10% of the overall sales. And until I see numbers, I won't think otherwise.

Fair enough, but a lot of PC centric multiplatform releases are clearly being undercounted by the NPD. Max Payne 3 in particular for this month. The only question is, by how much? If MP3 sold 300k at retail this month did the PC version only sell 30k?

 

[Version 3.0]

Fair enough, but a lot of PC centric multiplatform releases are clearly being undercounted by the NPD. Max Payne 3 in particular for this month. The only question is, by how much? If MP3 sold 300k at retail this month did the PC version only sell 30k?

The PC market is clearly more online-oriented than the console market, so a ranking that includes both is going to be somewhat distorted, sure.

But a game that's sells badly sells badly everywhere. It's very unlikely that a game that bombed at retail is selling well online, even for the Vita or PC. Nor will an online-only distributed game suddenly sell well if it gets a disc release.

A little off-topic, but it's the same thing with piracy, used sales or anything else publishers routinely complain about. The most popular pirated games, or re-sold games (or borrowed/shared games) are the ones that sold best. No game that ever bombed was a huge hit with thieves or sold millions at Gamestop.

 

[donny2112]

Why not? They're most likely going to have physical packaging and be sold by Best Buy, Gamestop, Amazon, Wal-Mart and others.

Oh, those. Yeah, they'll have visibility into those sales. Don't know if they'd count them with the regular software, then. Thought he was just talking about the eShop direct sales.

 

[Dr. Zoidberg]

The thing with Vita for me is that I DO want one, but given the current price of the unit, the lack of consistent software releases and future outlook, and piss-poor sales, I feel like a price cut is inevitable, whether it is Sony's doing or Target's (to clear the space for product that sells). In addition, I already have a 3DS and iPhone, and frankly I just don't need more than one dedicated portable gaming system, and since I like Mario, that one system is going to be Nintendo's no matter what hardware is in these things.

This is nothing new, but my gut feeling is that the overall dedicated handheld market has shrunk, and it's not coming back. There will always be a niche there for people who don't want to play touchscreen-only games, but that niche is becoming too small to support two industry players in a significant way. I realize competition is good, and we should desire to have it in this space, but at some point that's not going to be financially feasible.

 

[Dalthien]

That is just awful. The sad part about Vita sales is the 15k a week int the US is just a smidge ahead of the pace at which they're selling in Japan. That's just awful. We'll see where they're at by the end of the year. I'm curious to see just how much they're going to miss their 10M forecast by.

Well, let's take a quick look at what we know so far,

April - June: (Q1 of fiscal year)

US - 200k
Japan - 160k

We don't have numbers for Europe, but it isn't much (if any) better than the US. So for Q1, we've got sales of less than 700k (maybe even closer to 600k) worldwide. Sony might have managed to ship more than that, but even so, any extra Q1 shipments would just come out of Q2 anyway.

So best case scenario, they've only got to sell 9.3M (probably closer to 9.4M) more Vitas in Q2-Q4! (And honestly, the PSP forecast of 6M for the year is just about as absurd as the Vita forecast).

 

[jvm]

See, I did not know that. This is good information. Thanks, jvm!

Not sure if serious. Should I elaborate?

 

[Stumpokapow]

There are several problems with retail and digital comparisons.

• Digital products often sell for lower prices, so units can stay the same while revenue drops.

• 
  
  I don't view this as problematic. Digital products have less cost overhead, less cost risk, and in many cases we're actually talking about a separate lowered budgeted range of products rather than the same product selling at lower ASP.
  
  I agree that Apples to Apples comparisons are not all that good though.

 

[jvm]

I don't view this as problematic. Digital products have less cost overhead, less cost risk, and in many cases we're actually talking about a separate lowered budgeted range of products rather than the same product selling at lower ASP.

I agree that Apples to Apples comparisons are not all that good though.

We agree, essentially. I mostly wanted to clarify that reporting of digital sales data is often different and of differing quality from what most here are used to from retail tracking.

 

[Walsh]

You would think Diablo 3 will fall hard as word of mouth spreads about the quality of the product.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Now that you guys mentioned it, yes, Vita had Resistance (whole month) and Gravity Rush (20 days).

User that shall not be named, can you give us some hints about how these games performed?

 

[Version 3.0]

Not sure if serious. Should I elaborate?

Please do. I don't know what you mean by "whale" in this context.