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[Fredescu]

PS3 will not outsell X360 for September in North America. Am I rational?

You didn't provide any reasoning for your prediction, so the answer is no, not yet. There are rational arguments to be made for your position. The performance of the slim in other territories is a big argument against it though.

 

[Son of Godzilla]

You didn't provide any reasoning for your prediction, so the answer is no, not yet. There are rational arguments to be made for your position. The performance of the slim in other territories is a big argument against it though.

Wasn't the slim combined with the price drop pretty much everywhere but the US?

 

[GavinGT]

You didn't provide any reasoning for your prediction, so the answer is no, not yet. There are rational arguments to be made for your position. The performance of the slim in other territories is a big argument against it though.

ODST.

 

[pseudocaesar]

What a laughable prediction..

Well you have one console in the right place... for the first 2 months maybe... Then your list is gunna be completely off :lol

No, it's laughable plain and simple.

No...

October: PS3 = Wii > 360
November Wii > PS3 > 360
December: Same as Nov
January : Same as Dec

Would you be willing to make a bet on this?

How about:

If total PS3 sales for October, November, December and January are higher than the Wii, I'll take a 3 month ban.

If not, you take a 3 month ban.

Oh god. I dont believe there is a gif or jpg or any image format for that matter that can accurately convey the amount of epic failure in these posts. It was clearly a sarcastic reply to someone elses sarcastic reply to my first one. How? HOW? It boggles the mind you people didn't get that.

 

[legend166]

Wasn't the slim combined with the price drop pretty much everywhere but the US?

I do think that is something to consider. It wouldn't surprise me to see the PS3 sell around 450k units next month, pushing it into first, but it won't have the same impact as the other territories.

 

[user_nat]

Are people actually expecting Halo ODST to sell to sell "poorly"..? A million people play Halo 3 everyday, I think it will sell.

 

[Fredescu]

Wasn't the slim combined with the price drop pretty much everywhere but the US?

"But the US"? You mean the Slim didn't get a price drop in the US? I'm not sure what you're saying. All I mean is that the information we have from Japan and Europe says that the Slim has outsold the competition by a fair distance. Granted that's only from a weeks data. A 150k week in Japan is pretty big though.

ODST.

The argument against that is obvious. If you're interested in Halo, you have a 360. There may be a small hardware bump, but given that GTA4 didn't move much hardware, I can't see ODST doing it.

Are people actually expecting Halo ODST to sell to sell "poorly"..? A million people play Halo 3 everyday, I think it will sell.

I don't think anyone is expecting that. The question is whether it will push hardware.

 

[Scottlarock]

Oh god. I dont believe there is a gif or jpg or any image format for that matter that can accurately convey the amount of epic failure in these posts. It was clearly a sarcastic reply to someone elses sarcastic reply to my first one. How? HOW? It boggles the mind you people didn't get that.

I fell for it too, lots of the sony crowd posts many things very close to this, so if it was sarcasm it needed alot more sarcasm.

 

[Son of Godzilla]

"But the US"? You mean the Slim didn't get a price drop in the US? I'm not sure what you're saying.

Price drop was 2 weeks or w/e before slim.

 

[legend166]

Oh god. I dont believe there is a gif or jpg or any image format for that matter that can accurately convey the amount of epic failure in these posts. It was clearly a sarcastic reply to someone elses sarcastic reply to my first one. How? HOW? It boggles the mind you people didn't get that.

You never know what is sarcasm in this climate

 

[Fredescu]

Price drop was 2 weeks or w/e before slim.

I see. I think there was an unofficial drop here in Australia to get rid of old stock, but I don't think there were many available. Not sure how it was in Japan and Europe. I personally got a cheap 80gb, but I don't think it was that common.

 

[FrankT]

I'll tell you what. Retarded Sony had done one commercial to MS's 4 during the NFL season opener. Not smart. Every game commercial had X360 $100 off at the end.

Actually sounds more like 7 to 1.

http://www.gamenewser.net/?p=51

 

[grandjedi6]

The Wii fell from July -> August in both 2007 and 2008.

And since you asked whenever ago, I wouldn't be surprised if things stayed exactly the same as they are now for September. I don't expect it to happen, but it wouldn't shock me. A price cut and new launch spurs initial sales sure, but I suspect it'll affect weekly sales for the holiday far more than right now.

September (and to a lesser extent, October) is really the only chance for anything interesting to happen with NPD. The Holidays has always been Nintendo's strong point, and this is tripley true for the Wii. Anyone who thinks either the 360 or PS3 will dethrone the Wii in November & December of all months is simply deluded.

 

[Zzoram]

My Canadian PS3 Slim + Batman (PS3) were picked up August 25. I'm very curious about Canadian numbers, since Canada has always been more sensitive to price.

 

[soldat7]

Oh god. I dont believe there is a gif or jpg or any image format for that matter that can accurately convey the amount of epic failure in these posts. It was clearly a sarcastic reply to someone elses sarcastic reply to my first one. How? HOW? It boggles the mind you people didn't get that.

 

[DCharlie]

That would be most unexpected and hilarious. Very small chance of happening though.

i don't get why it would be unexpected.

The price drop is likely to pick up residual demand in a short period, but pointing at Japan and Europes initial results doesn't prove anything.

Right now Tokyo is swimming in unsold Slims, with the initial shipment of 200k that 150k could just as easily be the one major spike over one week and we are back to the usual numbers - it's far from certain that this is a sustained sales peek.

I've no problem with agreeing that the PS3 could well sell great numbers, but people are extrapolating this out as a sure thing and it's WAYYYY to early to start calling it.


one good thing about the japanese ad campaign - they didn't go with ONLY DOES EVERYTHING because stores are putting "PLEASE NOTE DOES NOT PLAY PS2 GAMES" on their stock of machines. Quite a few second hand units, so i'm guessing some people got caught out.

In GOOD news, 30k yen gets you a 60 gig 1st gen japanese machine, 20k will net you a 20gig first gen. Given these are the REAL ps3s, i'd strongly advise JGaffers to plunge in whilst stocks last.

 

[Rapping Granny]

My Canadian PS3 Slim + Batman (PS3) were picked up August 25. I'm very curious about Canadian numbers, since Canada has always been more sensitive to price.

Yes, I want some Canada NPDs, fuck this american shit, can't wait to see what NHL 10 would do.

 

[pseudocaesar]

You never know what is sarcasm in this climate

Haha so true, the NPD does have a tendancy to bring out the nutcases.

Flawless.

 

[Kaako]

Good shit. Next month will be crazy good. Holidays are always exciting.

 

[jrricky]

That would be most unexpected and hilarious. Very small chance of happening though.

I'm such a devious bastard I want it to happen...:lol :lol

 

[LINK.AGE76]

Late to the party, the sales seem alright. DS is still a beast, Wii is still on top but for how long. PS3 sales are nice as well as the 360's. PSP sales are expected, next month GO launches. Boring month overall, it's all about September NPD

 

[Tutomos]

What's preventing people from picking up an Arcade with Halo 3 all this time.

 

[beast786]

i don't get why it would be unexpected.

The price drop is likely to pick up residual demand in a short period, but pointing at Japan and Europes initial results doesn't prove anything.

Right now Tokyo is swimming in unsold Slims, with the initial shipment of 200k that 150k could just as easily be the one major spike over one week and we are back to the usual numbers - it's far from certain that this is a sustained sales peek.
I've no problem with agreeing that the PS3 could well sell great numbers, but people are extrapolating this out as a sure thing and it's WAYYYY to early to start calling it.


one good thing about the japanese ad campaign - they didn't go with ONLY DOES EVERYTHING because stores are putting "PLEASE NOTE DOES NOT PLAY PS2 GAMES" on their stock of machines. Quite a few second hand units, so i'm guessing some people got caught out.

In GOOD news, 30k yen gets you a 60 gig 1st gen japanese machine, 20k will net you a 20gig first gen. Given these are the REAL ps3s, i'd strongly advise JGaffers to plunge in whilst stocks last.

Sold 150k in about 3-4 days, more than intial PS3 launch week. That itself is not just an average spike seen . No doudt its too early to make a long term prediction. But to ignore this number would also be naive. Saying that tokyo is now swimming with Slim also has no bearing on its sales.

 

[spwolf]

Right now Tokyo is swimming in unsold Slims, with the initial shipment of 200k that 150k could just as easily be the one major spike over one week and we are back to the usual numbers - it's far from certain that this is a sustained sales peek.

:lol

 

[MightyHedgehog]

You didn't provide any reasoning for your prediction, so the answer is no, not yet. There are rational arguments to be made for your position. The performance of the slim in other territories is a big argument against it though.

Sorry, I didn't think it was necessary because I had already stated earlier in the thread why I think the way that I do. And, yeah, it's because of Halo ODST and the sheer force of MS' combined ad spend during September going into the rest of the holiday season. September might be close, but I think PS3's initial boost in sales has been roughly half-spent during the August tracking period seeing how many price drops tend to be front-loaded to sate the pent-up demand. Not saying the price drop for PS3 won't keep on giving, as I fully expect it to, but Sony's going to share more and more of the 'airwaves' with MS as the season wears on. And using the first week bumps in European and Japanese markets, I think, is a bit of a mistake if only because PS3 hasn't been nearly as competitive in North America against the X360 as it has in those territories. We've yet to see what the backside of the price drop looks like for those markets.

While we're doing some crazy, shot-from-the-hip NPD hardware predictions:

X360>Wii>PS3 for September
X360>Wii>PS3 for October
Wii>X360>PS3 for November
Wii>X360>PS3 for December

The combined ad campaign for Arcade at $199/Elite to $299/Halo ODST into campaigns for L4D2 and The Ballad of Gay Tony/Episodes from Liberty City. Forza 3 will figure in there, as well as the boost from Modern Warfare 2.

 

[AniHawk]

:lol

I think it's more sad than anything. Poor Sony.

 

[Scottlarock]

PS3 will win next NPD with likely hoods of up to 400k, and will beat wii and the 360. I expect PS3>360>Wii. after that month I expect 360>Wii>Ps3 by very small amounts. thats my bold statement, someone quote me! I also believe that 50% of slim buyers are ps3 owners already, which will help ps3 sales for awhile, until they ebay/gamestop the ps3's they have. which means a cheap ps3 for many in the future, but not count for npds.

 

[Count Dookkake]

So while Miyamoto and co swim in money, Hirai and his crew swim in Slim?

 

[ZeoVGM]

Since we're predicting, I'm guessing PS3 outsells 360 and MAYBE Wii in September, perhaps October.

But Wii will still win November/December, and I believe PS3 will fall back behind 360 (though VERY close -- and if it beats 360, it will still be VERY close).

This is, of course, assuming Nintendo doesn't drop the price. If they do, then lol @ everything I just said.

 

[Htown]

Late to the party, the sales seem alright. DS is still a beast, Wii is still on top but for how long.

PS3 might outsell the Wii next month, but that's about it. Then the stuff like Wii Fit Plus and New Super Mario Bros. Wii hits and the holidays show up and it's pretty much back to business as usual.

I would be entirely unsurprised, however, to see the PS3 outsell the 360 the rest of the year. It won't necessarily happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

 

[Scottlarock]

This is, of course, assuming Nintendo doesn't drop the price. If they do, then lol @ everything I just said.

nintendo wont do much unless they drop to $149, at $199 they will get a small push that might push them over ps3/360 numbers for oct/dec

 

[Scottlarock]

PS3 might outsell the Wii next month, but that's about it. Then the stuff like Wii Fit Plus and New Super Mario Bros. Wii hits and the holidays show up and it's pretty much back to business as usual.I would be entirely unsurprised, however, to see the PS3 outsell the 360 the rest of the year. It won't necessarily happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

like someone else said, like halo, you would have owned the system already. and isn't wiifit a minor update selling for $20-30 bucks? edit: much less then the new wii sports? which didn't do much in moving systems?

 

[AniHawk]

like someone else said, like halo, you would have owned the system already. and isn't wiifit a minor update selling for $20-30 bucks?

I think the thing about Wii Fit Plus is that it also advertises the system. Just increasing awareness about the system some more is beneficial.

There really isn't anything quite like NSMB Wii on the Wii. I think it has potential to be gigantic, and probably the system's last system seller in the States (DQX will be the last one in Japan). It's recognizable. People know what 2D Mario is and how to play it. Before this gen began, there were more copies of Super Mario Bros. out there than any other game. Super Paper Mario sold over a million copies when no other Paper Mario did anywhere near that much. Super Mario Bros. and Super Mario Bros. 3 are constantly the top selling games on WiiWare. So people still like 2D Mario and want more. The other thing is that it's a very social game. If you want to jump in, you can. People watch people play SMB, or alternate whenever someone dies anyway, so this is the next step.

It's everything that plays to the Wii's strengths. It grabs all sorts of audiences. I think it has a lot in common with Mario Kart Wii, actually.

 

[zero_suit]

nintendo wont do much unless they drop to $149, at $199 they will get a small push that might push them over ps3/360 numbers for oct/dec

The Wii will beat the 360 and PS3 in those months even if they did nothing.

 

[Open Source]

It's good to see all 3 systems running about even, although the total numbers are a little disappointing.

 

[ZeoVGM]

nintendo wont do much unless they drop to $149, at $199 they will get a small push that might push them over ps3/360 numbers for oct/dec

This doesn't make any sense. But if it did, it would be wrong. Wii will already beat them in those months.

 

[Narcosis]

It's good to see all 3 systems running about even, although the total numbers are a little disappointing.

Well, consumer spending is down still and nothing is really driving hardware as a "system seller" in recent times. We may be in this weird "meh" limbo until the full holiday swing hits.

You didn't provide any reasoning for your prediction, so the answer is no, not yet. There are rational arguments to be made for your position. The performance of the slim in other territories is a big argument against it though.

Just to play Devil's Advocate: The US is the weakest region for Sony this generation, and MS did counter with a drop on the Elite (I know it was technically a sku shift, but still), so perhaps there's a chance we won't see the same level of effect or the effects for both consoles will be seeing an equivalent rise in sales.

Of course, I'm stating this as a series of possibilities and not probabilities. I'm not sure the elite at $299 garnered as much attention as the PS3 drop. And I do agree with the general consensus of Halo ODST not moving a ton of machines since those folks probably "Jumped In" for the Halo 3 launch.

 

[Fredescu]

Sorry, I didn't think it was necessary because I had already stated earlier in the thread why I think the way that I do. And, yeah, it's because of Halo ODST and the sheer force of MS' combined ad spend during September going into the rest of the holiday season. September might be close, but I think PS3's initial boost in sales has been roughly half-spent during the August tracking period seeing how many price drops tend to be front-loaded to sate the pent-up demand. Not saying the price drop for PS3 won't keep on giving, as I fully expect it to, but Sony's going to share more and more of the 'airwaves' with MS as the season wears on. And using the first week bumps in European and Japanese markets, I think, is a bit of a mistake if only because PS3 hasn't been nearly as competitive in North America against the X360 as it has in those territories. We've yet to see what the backside of the price drop looks like for those markets.

Fair enough, my mistake.

 

[Scottlarock]

I think the thing about Wii Fit Plus is that it also advertises the system.

There really isn't anything quite like NSMB Wii on the Wii. I think it has potential to be gigantic, and probably the system's last system seller in the states (DQX will be the last one in Japan).

I LOVE NSMB on the DS( my fav game on the ds), and will buy it on my wii, but I wouldn't buy a wii for it like I did my DS. the game fits more on the ds, which in my eyes is more like a super-super-nes player. retro styles games work on it, but on my console I'm looking for something different and poly pushing. I believe it will do worse then smash brothers and galaxy.

 

[Xeke]

I LOVE NSMB on the DS( my fav game on the ds), and will buy it on my wii, but I wouldn't buy a wii for it like I did my DS. the game fits more on the ds, which in my eyes is more like a super-super-nes player. retro styles games work on it, but on my console I'm looking for something different and poly pushing. I believe it will do worse then smash brothers and galaxy.

I bet my account against yours that NSMBWii outsells Galaxy LTD.

 

[Son of Godzilla]

People are also ignoring The Beatles RB. I can see that moving some 360s. Far more than ODST would.

 

[Scottlarock]

This doesn't make any sense. But if it did, it would be wrong. Wii will already beat them in those months.

I wasn't talking past months.

 

[Sipowicz]

I think the thing about Wii Fit Plus is that it also advertises the system.

There really isn't anything quite like NSMB Wii on the Wii. I think it has potential to be gigantic, and probably the system's last system seller in the states (DQX will be the last one in Japan).

i agree with you 100%. nintendo is fucked, especially in terms of western support

totally gimped 2 year old port of modern warfare and an outsourced dead space lightgun game . that's the extent of support from the two biggest western publishers in the world. shit's embarrasing

 

[Scottlarock]

I bet my account against yours that NSMBWii outsells Galaxy LTD.

I would take you up on this, but LTD could mean 20 years. I would like within the first 6 months of each other sales. or something like that.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Fair enough, my mistake.

No, no mistake, man. I should have explained some of the logic behind my statement. I was just half jokingly replying to an earlier post about 'rational posters' who don't think PS3 is going to outsell the X360 for September.

 

[Xeke]

I would take you up on this, but LTD could mean 20 years. I would like within the first 6 months of each other sales. or something like that.

First year after its final (main) territory launch, so probably Europe, or whenever it crosses that threshold before the year is up.

 

[pseudocaesar]

Can anyone explain how ODST will drive hardware sales? Sure it will sell gangbusters in Software..but why would ODST be anyones first game to get on the system if you didn't get it for Halo 3 in the first place? Just curious, not trying to bait fyi.

 

[Scottlarock]

First year after its final (main) territory launch, so probably Europe, or whenever it crosses that threshold before the year is up.

I'm in america, don't follow much else, europe is already confusioning on getting accurate counts. lets just use NPD.

 

[ZeoVGM]

I wasn't talking past months.

Uh, yeah, I know. You're talking about this upcoming November/December. And you're acting as if Wii is going to have trouble being ahead of PS3 and 360, which it won't. Even without a price cut, it will be the top selling console.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

I know NSMBWii will sell, but I can't see it selling 10m plus. I think it will be somewhere in the 8-10m ww.