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[MightyHedgehog]

While we're doing some crazy, shot-from-the-hip NPD hardware predictions:

X360>Wii>PS3 for September
X360>Wii>PS3 for October
Wii>X360>PS3 for November
Wii>X360>PS3 for December

Let's see how good I am at guessing just the order and not numbers. Specific numbers are too difficult for me.

 

[harSon]

i'm not sure what the difference is? It had a $100 price drop and now is the same price as the only 360 you can get with a hardrive but it also has a lot more like Blu-ray, wifi etc so i'm sure will beat the 360 candidly next month

Because price drops in general bring about immediate spikes in sales, as do new SKUs, so there's obviously going to be huge spike for a console revision that's $100 cheaper than its predecessor. The casual purchaser, which a good chunk of console buyers are, are not tech savvy enough to weigh bullet points, bang for your buck is certainly a factor but price point will ultimately be the deciding factor within most purchases. The fact that there's a bump after a console revision and price drop is no surprise to anyone, nor is the fact that it will most likely surpass consoles whose price remain stagnant for the month. The real question, the one Sony cares most about, is whether the price drop will bring about consistently high sales. They've had spikes before but none have ever sustained for longer then a few months, it will be interesting to see if this price drop does what their other price drops have not. I hope Sony is able to sustain sales, healthy competition is most beneficial to the consumer

 

[AniHawk]

now thats a bold prediction.

Yeah, no shit. I was thinking it'd be PS3 > 360 > Wii, but now I'm thinking it'll be PS3 > Wii > 360.

 

[sciplore]

Data care of NPD Group


PlayStation 2 105.9K
PlayStation 3 210.0K
PSP 140.3K
Xbox 360 215.4K
Wii 277.4K
Nintendo DS 552.9K

[360] 230k
[NDS] 550k
[PS2] 100k
[PS3] 240k
[PSP] 150k
[WII] 350k

Crap overshoot on the wii, 360 and ps3. Ds, ps2 and psp were pretty close though.

I think the ps3 will top next month and maybe October.

 

[Kilrogg]

Wii Sports Resort numbers are phenomenal. It will be interesting to see how well it holds up through the holiday season and into the spring.


Next month it would be absolutely shocking if PS3 wasn't the leading console. It would be a pretty big disappointment if it wasn't the case, actually.

However, the really interesting months will be November and December. Can the new price be enough to take on the Wii juggernaut? Or will the bump be over by then?

What I'm eager to find out is whether Iwata will be vindicated by December (or January, should NSMB Wii come out no sooner than late November). He said that it generally takes 6 to 8 weeks for potential system sellers to start driving hardware sales more noticeably. If he's right, Wii sales should rise by October, and not only because it's October. If WSR fails in that regard, NSMB is the title we'll have to watch closely until January.

 

[Epiphyte]

Wait, EA's big idea to make Madden more appealing to Wii owners was making the players look like Captain Qwark?

I feel a little sorry for them. They have no idea how to sell the game on the Wii, so they are taking a completely different approach each year.

Maybe if they throw enough shit, it will stick eventually

 

[Karma]

Which is 300% of something like ~30k or less (about what they were at week over week in July). Right before the rumored price cut I could certainly see them at 20-25k however.

That would be 120k the first week of September. Unless my math sucks and it usually does.

 

[pharmboy044]

Huh. I haven't gotten a single 500 error today.

You could blame that on the uneventful numbers for this month.

 

[Balb]

Also, are people REALLY going to go crazy over an essentially relaunched console with a $100 price cut selling a few more thousand units than the 360? Sony fanboys are weird.

 

[Sohter.Nura]

It's actually a good thing that EA had a hit with EA Sports Active and Tiger Woods Wii, you know?

With the Madden numbers and Boom Blox numbers, together with how we expect Dead Space Wii to perform, I would say that would've been the last straw in dropping the support for the platform.

 

[Tmac]

Was the ps3 price drop in august?

 

[xaosslug]

no free copies of Wolfenstein for everybody who bought it? T_T

 

[Patriotsbball5460]

I hope they realize that most people, casual gamers included, like realism in a sports sim, not some mixed message crap like Madden 10 Wii is.

obviously they didnt realize that, when your on the system with the highest install base of the current gen systems, and your being outsold by psp, they really didnt know who their target audience was

 

[beast786]

just to clear things up as i'm not in the US, is there a SLIM supply issue in the states or is this a hedged bet , you know, just in case Sept doesn't work out?



again, WHY? It seems the other way round, the over celebration will be the more fun to watch.

"it's half time here Bob, and with the Cowboys up 35-0"
"hold that thought there John, because The Raiders have just went over for a score"
"Oh my God Bob, at just over half time with the extra point added, 35-7 !!! Victory Raiders! It's all over for the Cowboys! Time to pack up. Who can stop the Raiders juggernaut!!!"
"and i can see members of the Cowboys fan base actually moving seats to the Raiders side of the field"
"and who can blame them John? they can smell the inevitability!"

To be fair. The true analogy would be....
"it's half time here Bob, and with the Cowboys up 35-0"
Look John ... looks who just entered the stadium... and entering the game....
omg.. its Ken Stabler (AKA 100 dollar price cut).... what next..
The Raiders have just went over for a score"
Now Bob this game will finally be getting intresting...

:lol

 

[AniHawk]

Was the ps3 price drop in august?

Yeah, whenever GAMESCON was (middle of the month?). The Slim came out at the very end of the month.

When did the Slim come out, actually? Because the day I picked up Arkham Asylum, I saw PS3s bundled with crap at Best Buy. They were the slims and they weren't display boxes. I had thought it was launching early September.

 

[Patriotsbball5460]

no free copies of Wolfenstein for everybody who bought it? T_T

:lol

 

[Struct09]

Was the ps3 price drop in august?

The price dropped around 8/18, the Slim started hitting stores just before 9/1.

 

[Road]

Which is 300% of something like ~30k or less (about what they were at week over week in July). Right before the rumored price cut I could certainly see them at 20-25k however.

OK. I read the article now. It was compared to the week before the price drop (should always check PR talk). You can shoot me. I deserve.

4 times on 20k seems more likely. Which would be 80k in a week doing a dumb extrapolation.

 

[2 Minutes Turkish]

Was the ps3 price drop in august?

Yes.

It was dropped the day the Slim was revealed I believe.

 

[Mrbob]

no free copies of Wolfenstein for everybody who bought it? T_T

:lol

Just a little bit behind Madden...a tiny bit!

I remember someone joking all copies of wolfenstein combined wouldn't outsell the PS2 version of madden! This actually might have been true!

 

[Patriotsbball5460]

Yeah, whenever GAMESCON was (middle of the month?). The Slim came out at the very end of the month (the 26th).

key thing is that the sony marketing push started on september 1, and ive seen those commercials prolly 15-20 times now, and im not a big tv watcher

 

[AranhaHunter]

Every single store in my area had them in late August and I live in downtown San Francisco but I got my personal slim model off Amazon and was shipped before September 1st.

Only Best Buy had them in my area.

 

[TTP]

Yes.

It was dropped the day the Slim was revealed I believe.

August 18th to be precise.

 

[FrankT]

That would be 120k the first week of September. Unless my math sucks and it usually does.

Google cal is givng me 90k at 30k. No wait maybe that is correct.

Hmm...

Last month's weekly average was 53k. Considering it already included some slim sales on the last week and that the weeks before the price drop might have been at best equal to July's average, the last week of the August NPD was probably over 53k.

A 300% increase is 4 times. But let's just use 53k. We would have 212k in one week (last week).

Obviously, you see how stupid it is to extrapolate based on that Sony PR article.

Not too sure what you are trying to say here.

Or more clearly this;

Reading the article, it makes it seem like the comparison is to the last week before the price drop to 299, which would be a much lower number to start with.

 

[harSon]

While we're doing some crazy, shot-from-the-hip NPD hardware predictions:

X360>Wii>PS3 for September
X360>Wii>PS3 for October
Wii>X360>PS3 for November
Wii>X360>PS3 for December

Let's see how good I am at guessing just the order and not numbers. Specific numbers are too difficult for me.

It's going to be

PS3>Wii>Xbox 360 for September
Wii>Xbox 360>PS3 for October (Wouldn't be surprised if 360 and PS3 were swapped)
Wii>>Xbox 360>PS3 for November
Wii>>Xbox 360>PS3 for December

 

[clashfan]

While we're doing some crazy, shot-from-the-hip NPD hardware predictions:

X360>Wii>PS3 for September
X360>Wii>PS3 for October
Wii>X360>PS3 for November
Wii>X360>PS3 for December

Let's see how good I am at guessing just the order and not numbers. Specific numbers are too difficult for me.

Why do you think 360 outsells wii?

 

[timetokill]

What I'm eager to find out is whether Iwata will be vindicated by December (or January, should NSMB Wii come out no sooner than late November). He said that it generally takes 6 to 8 weeks for potential system sellers to start driving hardware sales more noticeably. If he's right, Wii sales should rise by October, and not only because it's October. If WSR fails in that regard, NSMB is the title we'll have to watch closely until January.

Good point, I too am curious to see how much that will be true for WSR. Personally I think it will play a large part in holiday sales, but more this time with people buying it as a gift for others as opposed to within their own family.

Something I'd also like to know is peripheral sales, or more specifically controller sales, when NSMB Wii comes out. I wonder if we'll see a Wii Play resurgence around then. i wouldn't be shocked to see Wii Play show up again around the holidays when people are buying new Wii systems and looking for a game+extra controller.

If WSR manages to push the platform, then wow -- very impressive. I just wonder if it will have that impact as a sequel, or if more of that will fall on the shoulders of NSMB Wii.

 

[AniHawk]

Why do you think 360 outsells wii?

Halo, probably.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Holy shit at Wii. :lol

No sympathy from me Nintendo, no sympathy.

 

[gkryhewy]

Nice to see Wii sales picking back up.

 

[elrechazado]

What I'm eager to find out is whether Iwata will be vindicated by December (or January, should NSMB Wii come out no sooner than late November). He said that it generally takes 6 to 8 weeks for potential system sellers to start driving hardware sales more noticeably. If he's right, Wii sales should rise by October, and not only because it's October. If WSR fails in that regard, NSMB is the title we'll have to watch closely until January.

Think of how many of those WSR sales came with one, two or hell even three more 19.99 WM+ standalone devices. I bought one myself with my WSR bundle (an extra one I mean)

Itprintsmoney.gif

 

[schuelma]

Hmm...

Last month's weekly average was 53k. Considering it already included some slim sales on the last week and that the weeks before the price drop might have been at best equal to July's average, the last week of the August NPD was probably over 53k.

A 300% increase is 4 times. But let's just use 53k. We would have 212k in one week (last week).

Obviously, you see how stupid it is to extrapolate based on that Sony PR article.

Reading the article, it makes it seem like the comparison is to the last week before the price drop to 299, which would be a much lower number to start with.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Why do you think 360 outsells wii?

The combined ad campaign for Arcade at $199/Elite to $299/Halo ODST into campaigns for L4D2 and The Ballad of Gay Tony/Episodes from Liberty City. Forza 3 will figure in there, as well as the boost from Modern Warfare 2.

 

[Patriotsbball5460]

Why do you think 360 outsells wii?

price drop and halo most likely

And waht really is on the horizon for the wii??

 

[Regulus Tera]

Dissidia should be higher.

YAY WSR.

 

[speculawyer]

Meh . . . I just think that Madden fans who own a Wii likely also own a PS3 or xbox 360.

I'm sure the fact that EA's been systematically destroying the brand on the Wii for the past 3 years has nothing to do with it. Would YOU come back after being subjected to the All Play tripe?

That is why they bought a 360 or PS3.

 

[reilo]

Google cal is givng me 90k at 30k. No wait maybe that is correct.

Let's get some basic math out of the way.

If you increase something by 100%, you are doubling it.

Let's say we have a number, we will call it x. A fifty percent drop of x is x/2, since x lost half of its original value, correct? Hence, an increase of 50% is x + (x/2). An increase of 100% is x + x, or 2x.

Now, an increase of 300% is x + 3x, since each x is equal to 100%.

 

[Road]

Reading the article, it makes it seem like the comparison is to the last week before the price drop to 299, which would be a much lower number to start with.

Yeah. I did that first math only based on the posts here. Hadn't read the article. Already fixed that lousy math.

But it's nice to look dumb on a NPD thread after thinking you'd have had lurked enough not to. Haha

 

[timetokill]

Holy shit at Wii. :lol

No sympathy from me Nintendo, no sympathy.

.. what does this even mean?

 

[Shaheed79]

I'm really excited about the PS3 making a comeback. Finally some reliable HD hardware at an affordable price.

 

[oneHeero]

Microsoft had a nice commercial during this NFL kickoff, showcased the Elite and and talks mentions the "now $100 less" or something. Has this commercial been going on long? I've only seen Ps3 Madden commercials.

 

[professor_t]

Are people really that excited to see the PS3 finally eclipse the other consoles? It's been what...4 years?

Four brutal, agonizing years of posting Killzone gifs and fucking up Forza threads. Yeah, some people have reason to be excited.

Spoiler

Relax. Seriously.

 

[sciplore]

To be fair. The true analogy would be....
"it's half time here Bob, and with the Cowboys up 35-0"
Look John ... looks who just entered the stadium... and entering the game....
omg.. its Ken Stabler (AKA 100 dollar price cut).... what next..
The Raiders have just went over for a score"
Now Bob this game will finally be getting intresting...

:lol

Mmm maybe it's because I'm not much of a football fan but compared to whiteace this joke came off as kinda weak...

People think that Halo will get the 360 over the Wii? What are the big releases for the wii in september?

Edit: Just checked. I still think the Wii will top the 360 but they may be close.

 

[speculawyer]

no free copies of Wolfenstein for everybody who bought it? T_T

:lol

 

[Kilrogg]

Good point, I too am curious to see how much that will be true for WSR. Personally I think it will play a large part in holiday sales, but more this time with people buying it as a gift for others as opposed to within their own family.

Something I'd also like to know is peripheral sales, or more specifically controller sales, when NSMB Wii comes out. I wonder if we'll see a Wii Play resurgence around then. i wouldn't be shocked to see Wii Play show up again around the holidays when people are buying new Wii systems and looking for a game+extra controller.

If WSR manages to push the platform, then wow -- very impressive. I just wonder if it will have that impact as a sequel, or if more of that will fall on the shoulders of NSMB Wii.

I don't think we'll see a Wii Play resurgence in the top 10 chart because there will be many front-loaded blockbuster titles (there always is around that time), along with the usual suspects. I'm sure it'll sell well, but the top 10 will likely be too crowded. Not that it matters, mind you.

I too believe that NSMB Wii –rather than WSR– will be the one to watch, because it doesn't fall in the traditional sequel pattern (the last 2D Mario on a home console came out more than a decade ago, so Nintendo is right to call it "new"), and it's freaking 2D Mario. It doesn't get much more appealing than that. I can see WSR being the Wii's Super Mario Bros. 3: utterly destroying the original in the hearts of the fans and selling huge numbers, but without creating new value that would reach out to people who don't already have the system. It's obvious that the sequel to Wii Sports will drive sales a little, but the impact won't be huge, if you ask me.

[EDIT] @elrechazao: I don't think that was your point, but you unintentionally reminded of WSR's primary purpose: to sell the MotionPlus. However, Iwata was talking about Wii sales, not accessory sales. He's saying that a title like WSR could drive sales of the system, but only after 6 to 8 weeks on the market.

 

[Fredescu]

Definitely PS3>Wii>360 next month. I don't think movements in the PS360 sphere will affect Wii sales, they'll just keep chugging along, declining slowly. On the other hand there's an overlap between the PS3 and 360 audiences, so I'd say that a rise in sales for one will mean a decrease in sales for the other.

I'm not brave enough to make holiday predictions.

 

[JohngPR]

It seems like ever since the beginning of the year, the disparity in sales between PS3/360 multiplatform titles have been more even sided than in previous years. It happened with RE5 and SFIV and now Batman. It's easier to see why with Batman seeing as the Joker DLC was heavily marketed by Sony and Eidos.

 

[2 Minutes Turkish]

price drop and halo most likely

And waht really is on the horizon for the wii??

There's been nothing on the horizon for the Wii since launch, it hasn't really affected anything much.

 

[jamesinclair]

Seriously, PS2 still pushing 100K+ a month is mind boggling. What are we coming up on year 9?

And yet no Rock Band Beatles for it...


I look forward to next months music numbers.

How many RB games will GH5 on PS2 outsell?

 

[speculawyer]

I'm really excited about the PS3 making a comeback.

Seriously. Year of the PS3.

(OK, who has the gif with the dunce drawing the graphs?)