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Official December NPD Prediction Thread (Pachter kills EVERYBODY! Bow down!!!)

G

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
GhaleonEB said:
The 1.2m number also included the week of black Friday, which was captured in November NPD, and was for all of NA. NPD however extends into the first week of January, so there's a pretty wide range depending on how people accounted for those factors in their predictions. Also, in that thread there was a confusing follow-up from Sony PR. Probably a miscommunication, but it was enough to raise an eyebrow or two.

Next Thursday is going to be a hoot.
Click to expand...
I was searching for that thread and I couldn't find it. do you have a pointer?
 
G

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
Odysseus said:
was there ever a peep out of nintendo or microsoft? that's pretty thoughtless on their part if they did not. i hope to see an article about it on gamepartison.com, as that's where i get all my gaming news.
Click to expand...
Obviously the did not do as well as Sony.

and Sony has a policy of not releasing the numbers before NPD.

oh wait...
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Odysseus said:
was there ever a peep out of nintendo or microsoft? that's pretty thoughtless on their part if they did not. i hope to see an article about it on gamepartison.com, as that's where i get all my gaming news.
Click to expand...
Nada. I was actually surprised after the November releases. Sony put out their percentages and then Nintendo nuked them out of the water with a withering hail of numbers. I kind of expected a repeat this week.

I think the closest we had were Microsoft's WW totals for 360's and Halo3/Mass Effect.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Gadfly said:
I was searching for that thread and I couldn't find it. do you have a pointer?
Click to expand...
Here it is.

FWIW, I take Sony's PR at face value, as they did specify sold at retail (as opposed to sold to retail). But parsing how much of those figures will be captured in December NPD is the trick.
 
G

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
GhaleonEB said:
Here it is.

FWIW, I take Sony's PR at face value, as they did specify sold at retail (as opposed to sold to retail). But parsing how much of those figures will be captured in December NPD is the trick.
Click to expand...
Thanks, I missed the tail end of that thread. I stayed up late last night and finished an arch doc some developers were blocked on so I am going to give myself the luxury of reading the part I missed. it's so... entertaining.
 
U

USD

Member
[360] 1500K
[GBA] 600K
[NDS] 2800K
[PS2] 1000K
[PS3] 900K
[PSP] 1150K
[WII] 1800K

lol, go double(ish) number predictions, go.
 
R

RevoDS

Junior Member
GhaleonEB said:
Nada. I was actually surprised after the November releases. Sony put out their percentages and then Nintendo nuked them out of the water with a withering hail of numbers. I kind of expected a repeat this week.
Click to expand...

I could be wrong, but I'd say both MS and Nintendo fear getting beaten by the other if they release raw numbers, so they're both delaying their press releases hoping the other does it first.

Not saying it's true, but it might be the explanation to it.
 
G

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
RevoDS said:
I could be wrong, but I'd say both MS and Nintendo fear getting beaten by the other if they release raw numbers, so they're both delaying their press releases hoping the other does it first.

Not saying it's true, but it might be the explanation to it.
Click to expand...
I think you're on to something. Sony has been very aggressive on their PR maybe because they have to. MS and in particular Nintendo do not feel as much pressure to generate “buzz” so unless the other guy comes swinging, they will wait it out. and as you said, there is always the danger of saying something and then your competitor making you look like a fool.
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
I just roughly doubled my November numbers, taking into account I don't think there's anyway Nintendo more than doubles its output month over month based on anecdotal evidence.

[360] 1500k
[GBA] 400K
[NDS] 3000K
[PS2] 1100K
[PS3] 900K
[PSP] 1200K
[WII]1800K
 
D

DayShallCome

Member
Thanks again to Donny and SonyCowboy for all the hard work - this month ends our first season of the NeoGAF NPD league. I look forward to improving my performence next season. :D

[NDS] 2,250,000
[WII] 1,600,000
[360] 1,350,000
[PSP] 950,000
[PS2] 825,000
[PS3] 795,000
[GBA] 350K

Once again, I've got a post up detailing some of my thoughts going into this month's prediction at niceskybox.com.

Nintendo again did very well in November – DS and Wii topped the charts, and titles like Super Mario Galaxy, Zelda: Phantom Hourglass, Guitar Hero 3, and Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games all performed strongly. As you would expect, the lower prices (compared to the competition) of Nintendo’s console and handheld mean that they make great gifts - I anticipate another winning month for the combination. In fact, due to massive worldwide popularity, Nintendo might have a hard time keeping up with demand, so it will be interesting to see how much of a limiting factor that is for overall sales. On the software side of things, Galaxy and Phantom Hourglass should again see great sales because of their family-friendly appeal.

November was another example of how Microsoft has done a great job of maintaining Xbox 360’s positive momentum that began in September with the release of Halo 3. And while hardware numbers were good, it was software sales that once again stole headlines, as the newly released Call of Duty 4 and Assassin’s Creed both sold >= 1 million units for the month. December should be another big month for the console, and I expect total hardware sales to eclipse the impressive 1.1 million tally that it accrued last December. Software sales will also be fantastic.

Those who have followed the industry over the past year know the difficulties that Sony has had with the PS3 – a high price and lack of popular games has hurt public perception of the console throughout the world. PSP and PS2, though, have both had solid years (especially PS2, considering its age) and have provided some stability to Sony as they deal with their next-gen problem. I expect sales in December for the three Sony platforms to reflect this now common trend, with PS3 lagging slightly behind PS2 and PSP.
Click to expand...
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
Number of contestants: 205

GAF Aggregate said:
[PS2] 871,249; Expected Range = 350,000 to 1,300,000
[PSP] 1,036,582; Expected Range = 595,000 to 1,500,000
[PS3] 809,183; Expected Range = 440,000 to 1,100,000
[360] 1,346,046; Expected Range = 700,000 to 1,800,000
[GBA] 242,362; Expected Range = 10,000 to 700,000
[NDS] 2,351,355; Expected Range = 1,350,000 to 3,100,000
[WII] 1,637,618; Expected Range = 1,000,000 to 2,300,000
Click to expand...

Disqualified for improper formatting or absurd predictions...

cortland_andrus
CowboyAstronaut
norinrad21
Penguin
Revelations
TheRipDizz
Tieno
Timedog
Windu
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
Cheesemeister said:
[PS2] 871,249; Expected Range = 350,000 to 1,300,000
[PSP] 1,036,582; Expected Range = 595,000 to 1,500,000
[PS3] 809,183; Expected Range = 440,000 to 1,100,000
[360] 1,346,046; Expected Range = 700,000 to 1,800,000
[GBA] 242,362; Expected Range = 10,000 to 700,000
[NDS] 2,351,355; Expected Range = 1,350,000 to 3,100,000
[WII] 1,637,618; Expected Range = 1,000,000 to 2,300,000
Click to expand...

those are some crazy ranges across the board

i believe gaf is going to be a bit off on 360, too
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Odysseus said:
those are some crazy ranges across the board

i believe gaf is going to be a bit off on 360, too
Click to expand...
Darts all over the board. That guy standing to the far side of the board took on in the knee. Could have been worse.
 
D

dolemite

Member
Cheesemeister said:
Number of contestants: 205



Disqualified for improper formatting or absurd predictions...

cortland_andrus
CowboyAstronaut
norinrad21
Penguin
Revelations
TheRipDizz
Tieno
Timedog
Windu
Click to expand...
:lol
 
A

apujanata

Member
Cheesemeister said:
Number of contestants: 205

[PS2] 871,249; Expected Range = 350,000 to 1,300,000
[PSP] 1,036,582; Expected Range = 595,000 to 1,500,000
[PS3] 809,183; Expected Range = 440,000 to 1,100,000
[360] 1,346,046; Expected Range = 700,000 to 1,800,000
[GBA] 242,362; Expected Range = 10,000 to 700,000
[NDS] 2,351,355; Expected Range = 1,350,000 to 3,100,000
[WII] 1,637,618; Expected Range = 1,000,000 to 2,300,000
Click to expand...

Why didn't you disqualified the 10K sales on GBA ?
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
apujanata said:
Why didn't you disqualified the 10K sales on GBA ?
Click to expand...


i don't even know why gba is even there to be predicted. we haven't seen the number in months, nobody has clue one on where it has been performing to be able to make a ballpark guess at the december number.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
Brakara said:
To me it looks like GAF is lowballing all the consoles, so the results on Thursday should be interesting.
Click to expand...


lowball? outside of not knowing anything about wii availability, i think most of the numbers are sound.

except for 360.

consider that last year's 360 performance was microsoft's highest ever for a december since they got into gaming. and that was 1.1 million. consider also that this december npd lost the week following black friday to the november period, which is certainly a disadvantage compared to prior years. yes, there were still five weeks in the december period, but this time nearly two of the weeks were post-Christmas, where sales would obviously be lower than the week following black friday.

no, i certainly don't think gaf lowballed 360. i think i'm crazy for putting it as high as 1.2 million, to be honest.
 
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