True, but CDPR pretty much confirmed this a while back, as the investment is to steep/risky these days to invest in unproven IP on that scale. Cyberpunk 2077 was announced in 2012 remember. That development timeframe is just insane. Glad that at least Bethesda is trying a new IP (that in all fairness still basically plays like their other titles).
I could've dropped Ubisoft and Activision in there as well, but at least Ubi seems like it's slowly changing for the better
But for the longest time, Ubisoft especially made the most homogenized titles, all being reskins of the same open-world structure/template.
Sure, as I said, I personally would rather see fewer sequels/franchises, but like I said it just seems unfair to say "why aren't CSDPR & Bethesda trying new things?" When the last things they released were literally first entries in what may or may not be new franchises.
In general though, as you say, development time and cost has made these business decisions huge and for a lot of developers one or two flops in a row could spell disaster. For example It's not *that* long ago that Bizarre Creations, who had a solid reputation were closed down after releasing Blur and Bloodstone, which didn't perform as well as hoped. I'm sure there are other examples, that's just the first that came to mind. So, I think that the whole thing is probably quite perilous, when it comes to choosing your next project, I can see why it happens. There might be a couple of hundred people out of a job if you decide to forge ahead with something that may or may not find a fanbase, versus dropping the latest installment.
I think this is a situation mirrored across films too, where fans have spoken with their wallets and said that what they want is "More" to some degree, I think it's not going to change now as everything has got more expensive, making everyone more risk averse.
As time goes by indie games get more and more attractive, there's more chance of new ideas being found there, owing to smaller amounts of money being involved they can cater to a smaller audience and run productions with smaller teams. I think if people are tired of AAAA and Starfield and Cyberpunk feel too familiar, then it might be time to look elsewhere, rather than hoping that Rockstar & co might consider doing anything over the next ten years that doesn't have a 6 or 3 jn the title. I think unfortunately, the economy of AAA/AAAA video games might make that sort of thing very rare.