LiquidMetal14
hide your water-based mammals
As Jim Carrey said playing The Riddler in Batman Forever, "I AM A WINNER!".
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Starfield is No.1 in the UK boxed charts. Almost identical launch to Diablo 4
feynoob
Member
but shipment isnt a sale. plus this game doesnt have ps.
for steam, i can understand it due to pc gamepass and 5 day early impression which affected people's decision to buy the game (dumb move from ms and bethesda).
feynoob
Member
this game is on gamepass until ms shuts down that service.
ShaiKhulud1989
Gold Member
As do gamepass PLAYER.
At least F4 was vastly requested by the retail and Bethesda recieved at least some money for the shipped stock. I don't have the links on me, but those shipped numbers were closed to sales anyway (1~2m give or take).
That Damn Kid
Member
Kilau
Member
ShaiKhulud1989
Gold Member
harry mason 1989
Banned
Get ready for spiderman 2 vs starfield next monthI'm just glad to have some of our xbros back in the sales thread.
I missed you guys.
feynoob
Member
but gamepass does generate revenue.
All ms needs is 3m permenant gamepass users from starfield and they can generate $504m average for 1 year or 7.2m starfield sales.
its why ms is putting it on the service. Its just a passive revenue for them at this moment.
Pelta88
Member
I disagree. TLOU2's division was down to narrative choice story arc... Gamers fell in love with a character and had a strong response to his story arc (trying to stay spoiler free here
) The second part was gamers being gamers... In an uproar about LGBTQ representation. None of those people, even in Microsoft's own internal review, had any criticism of the actual game.Starfield's narrative/backlash is a totally different situation.
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It's highly questionable that the impact of Gamepass is the same on physical and digital sales.
Precisely because physical sales are really limited in the UK on Xbox and they basically represent the dedicated niche who just refuse to buy digital games. Gamepass won't do much for those people.
Digital is instead basically the bulk of mainstream sales and those will be impacted by Gamepass much stronger hence the comparison with a non Gamepass title like Diablo 4 is imo misplaced.
So let's see the actual digital sales when they're reported. So far we've got physical numbers and they're not good.
feynoob
Member
I think you are doing friendly fire here.
ShaiKhulud1989
Gold Member
We will have full picture when (and if, a huge if) Microsoft will tell us how many new subs Starfield has generated. Until then it's all mad rumblings in the dark. Here, GI.biz author is operating on a level of an average GAF poster, wich is fun by itself.
feynoob
Member
let me ask you this.
What is the end goal for these sales?
i have been dying for that info. we have been in the dark since last report in 2022.
Alphagear
Member
Yep and Astro Playroom is the best selling game this generation.
Over 40 million.
Amazing.
feynoob
Member
amazing game. leave it buddy.
I meant on Xbox sorry. Wasn't referencing Steam.
My point being that if a game is available day 1 on Gamepass you can't necessarily use traditional digital physical split to predict sales.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
He is also suggesting that ~80% of the games sales in UK would be digital, so these chart topping physical sales are just 1/4th of the total expected sales.
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Mibu no ookami
Member
We all knew that people would try to skew the sales for Starfield. It was predictable, simply because of the nature of GamePass. People desperately want to count GP players as equivalent to sales when that makes zero sense. 15 dollars vs 70 dollars... even if you divided the GamePass totals by 5 to account for the lost revenue it wouldn't accurately portray Starfield sales because not everyone on GamePass has it just for Starfield.
Of all the games that would do "well" for physical, of course, it would be one that Microsoft is literally creating a wrap for the Series X for and has massively promoted as being their next big franchise.
And of course, GamePass would have a bigger impact on digital sales than Physical sales.
All this to say that the physical sales STILL came in under games that people felt underperformed like FF16... That it underperformed RE4 and FF16 is REALLY telling, not to mention dead island 2....
What people won't be able to skew is September or October Xbox Series sales in the US and I'm no longer seeing ANYONE who thinks that the Xbox Series will outsell the Switch let alone the PS5 in September.
Of all the games that would do "well" for physical, of course, it would be one that Microsoft is literally creating a wrap for the Series X for and has massively promoted as being their next big franchise.
And of course, GamePass would have a bigger impact on digital sales than Physical sales.
All this to say that the physical sales STILL came in under games that people felt underperformed like FF16... That it underperformed RE4 and FF16 is REALLY telling, not to mention dead island 2....
What people won't be able to skew is September or October Xbox Series sales in the US and I'm no longer seeing ANYONE who thinks that the Xbox Series will outsell the Switch let alone the PS5 in September.
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Yoboman
Member
Can't believe people spent $400-$500 each just to play Astro. It must be the highest grossing game of all time
Mibu no ookami
Member
Even that isn't a full picture. You could get gamepass for a month just to play Starfield, and cancel after the first month, saving 55 dollars. That isn't a win for Microsoft in any way...
Looking at GamePass growth for the year and Xbox Series sales is the only real way to measure a game like this that is on GamePass. Stand alone B2P sales might give some insight as well, but not the full picture that system sales and GP growth will tell us.
Alphagear
Member
He is also suggesting that ~80% of the games sales in UK would be digital, so these chart topping physical sales are just 1/4th of the total expected sales.
That would make sense if Starfield wasn’t available on Gamepass.
Comparing it to Diablo is silly cause it wasn’t on Gamepass.
feynoob
Member
It acts as different kind of sales, but that is it. From our prespective, those gamepass numbers would be useless.
From MS side, they are looking at getting 5m range userbase permanently. To them, that number is enough to generate close to 12m sales (3m people being subbed to gamepass for a year is equivelant of 7.2m sales).
The real question is whether gamepass is at 30+m or not.
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Mibu no ookami
Member
It doesn't matter if 30 million people play Starfield on GamePass or 0 people play Starfield on GamePass.
What matters is
What matters is
- How many units Starfield sells
- How many new subscribers Starfield brings into GamePass AND retains long term (at least 6+ months)
- How many units of Xbox Series X and S it helps sell
That is in general, for games that are not on Gamepass.
Who is buying physical games in the UK on Xbox at this point?
It's basically a niche of people who either refuse to buy digital games or people who like collecting things like action figures, artbooks and the likes.
Those people are not impacted by Gamepass at all.
It's within the bulk of their 80% digital sales that Gamepass will have an effect.
Hence it's a wait and see for actual digital sales, if those are not good they might still have an increase in GP subscribers.
analog_future
Banned
Extremely impressive for a Game Pass title; wow.
anthraticus
Banned
Pleeease. The world of popamole knows no bounds.
feynoob
Member
From your point of stand, starfield would need to sell 1m xbox consoles. gain 3-5m permanent gamepass users. And sell 3m-5m starfield to generate 20m worth of revenue.
As for gamepass growth, pc is the outline. That is a sector that would help MS massively, once console reaches the ceiling.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
He's extrapolating based on trends, it's pretty much the only thing he does at GI.
But, yes, we'll have the an accurate idea when the GFK results are out.
Mibu no ookami
Member
I don't think that is really the equation.
The most valuable thing a game could do is sell Xbox units. It's the most loyal consumer you could create. A PC GamePass user can come and go pretty easily. An Xbox GamePass consumer is far more likely to stick around.
So if Microsoft has a hierarchy of consumers it would be
1. New Xbox GamePass Consumer
2. Existing Xbox GamePass Consumer
3. New Xbox B2P Consumer
4. Existing Xbox B2P Consumer
5. New PC GamePass Consumer
6. Existing PC GamePass Consumer
7. PC B2P Consumer
So your ultimate goal is still to sell Xbox units and as an extension either GamePass subs, first party sales, 3rd party royalties, MTX e.t.c.
The worst case scenario for Microsoft is someone plays Starfield for a month via GamePass on PC and then cancels their account. The next worst-case scenario is that they buy Starfield on Steam and never buy anything from them again.
It's a difficult game to model so people like Chris who I generally respect trying to make massive assumptions at this point are pretty ridiculous.
cripterion
Member
All in all this is what modern gaming is about : Highly anticipated game comes out performing poorly but selling extremely well.
There's no incentive for these companies to do better nowadays cause we are used to this shit.
Not to single out Bethesda but with these dudes starting the DLC craze too...
There's no incentive for these companies to do better nowadays cause we are used to this shit.
Not to single out Bethesda but with these dudes starting the DLC craze too...
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Spitfire098
Member
Lord have mercy if xbox consoles don't come #1 on ttose monthly list.
Alphagear
Member
The trend never applied to games available on Gamepass.
Diablo 4 is NOT the same Starfield.
We all know Gamepass cannibalises sales.
It cannabalises digital sales more than physical.
So the expectation that another 80% have bought digital is nonsense.
chromatic9
Member
What some maybe missing is If I'm a game pass subscriber and Diablo comes out I buy that digitally as it's not on game pass day one.
Starfield comes out I have no need to buy it digitally hence a lost sale digitally. Starfield could've exceeded Diablo digitally or fell short, we don't know but it's possible that a good chunk of people on game pass already paying for months/years that would've normally bought Starfield digitally day 1 don't have to now.
Depends just how many game pass people suddenly don't have to buy the game so that typical 80% digital for a non game pass game is under question. Perhaps there's a lot of interest outside of game pass users but saying Diablo therefore Starfield is not good logic but could easily be similar by coincidence.
How many extra game pass subs did it generate. MS will be happy if they stay on board for a few months.
Starfield comes out I have no need to buy it digitally hence a lost sale digitally. Starfield could've exceeded Diablo digitally or fell short, we don't know but it's possible that a good chunk of people on game pass already paying for months/years that would've normally bought Starfield digitally day 1 don't have to now.
Depends just how many game pass people suddenly don't have to buy the game so that typical 80% digital for a non game pass game is under question. Perhaps there's a lot of interest outside of game pass users but saying Diablo therefore Starfield is not good logic but could easily be similar by coincidence.
How many extra game pass subs did it generate. MS will be happy if they stay on board for a few months.
feynoob
Member
The minor point that you are missing is that MS just needs to bring 3m userbase. 5M if they want more revenue.
Those numbers are acheivable, unlike 10+m userbase which are hard to keep around.
You can get those userbase from PC (500k-1.5m), 500k-1.5m console sold (new gamepass users), converting existing Xbox users to gamepass users(1.5m-2m). Achievable 3m-5m userbase.
That is all they have to do to get Starfield revenue. That is $504m-$840m. Which translates to 7.2m-12m copy sold. Not accounting outside sales.
Keep in mind that we arent including new Xbox users who might bring new revenue through 3rd party sales cut.
Mibu no ookami
Member
I don't think revenue is enough to make Starfield a success for Microsoft. You need to move the needle more than anything. You need to shift the narrative on mindshare.
You're also forgetting Valve's cut of the profit.
But that's why I said someone buying an Xbox for Starfield is the best case scenario. You have a shot at GamePass AND B2P, and B2P Royalties.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Do you have any evidence to back this?
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Mibu no ookami
Member
I think he assumed that because GamePass didn't eat into Physical sales to the degree of preventing it from charting 1st overall that it wouldn't eat into digital sales, which just doesn't make sense and he should know that better than anyone.
He should know how digital games track based on physical sales AND the game being present on GamePass, but he isn't doing any of that math here publicly nor is he mentioning it, so sounds like he ignored it. The argument that GamePass helps make it the largest launch of the year, just makes no sense at all.
Mibu no ookami
Member
It's common sense. People who like their physical games are going to buy physical regardless.
Is there a logical argument to be made that GamePass would hurt physical sales more than digital when GamePass is digital?
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
But if someone is subscribed to game pass, the idea is they wouldn't need to buy it in the first place.
Also Dring, in a different tweet, also said that around 40% of (UK ?) Xbox owners are game pass subscribers, so that's a bigger majority of owners who aren't, who would be buying the game at retail.
And that's where the retail physical to digital extrapolation would come into play.
No, the argument is that it would, in theory, effect both of them equally, if at all.
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DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
Xbox Series S = leading platform
Xbox Series S is digital only
Game Pass is on PC, which will hurt some digital sales.
So yes, more Digital than Physical.
Alphagear
Member
Common sense isn’t so common it seems.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Series S being a digital only platform and the leading platform just means Dring's digital estimate is more likely than not too.
Nothing then, gotcha.
Thanks.
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DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
Series S being a digital only platform and the leading platform just means Dring's digital estimate is more likely than not.
I'm not talking about Dring's digital estimate. I'm using how Game Pass will likely hurt digital sales compared to Physical.